Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market is facing a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with production profits gradually declining. The market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost center of ferroalloys may move down due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the ferroalloy will fluctuate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.5%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 10.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Market Review and Core Logic - **Market Review**: Yesterday, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising with a reduction in positions. Today, they followed the decline of coking coal, and the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. The view of weak fluctuations is maintained [4]. - **Core Logic**: The steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline, falling below 40%. The molten iron output has slightly decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally, and the ferroalloy's own inventory is also at a high level. The production profits of ferroalloys are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The inventory pressure is large. Ferrosilicon production has started to decrease this week, and silicomanganese production has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still depend on production cuts [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Ferrosilicon production started to decrease this week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the magnesium ingot production increased by 21.96% month - on - month [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The steel peak season was not prosperous, the steel mill profit rate fell below 40%, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually increasing. The coil and plate segment is still in a situation of high inventory and high production. Although the production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. There is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month, with large inventory pressure [8][10]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 26, the 01 - 05 spread was - 10, etc. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1141 week - on - week [8]. - **Silicomanganese Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270, the 01 - 05 spread was - 66, etc. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1750 week - on - week [9][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel mills' profitability has continued to decline, falling below 40% this week. Pig iron production has slightly decreased due to the decline in steel mills' profitability and is expected to continue this downward trend. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline, and the inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally. Ferroalloys also have high inventory levels, facing significant pressure to reduce inventory. After the macro - sentiment settles, ferroalloys will return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but the price will be supported by the cost side. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.8% [3]. - **Silicon manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.62% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 4.4% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a decline in ferroalloy prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to sell SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 15%. The suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 and SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25%. The suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300 and SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Contradiction between high inventory and weak demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. Downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and ferroalloy inventory is at a high level. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese enterprise inventories are at their highest levels in the past 5 years. Silicon manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 1.5% month - on - month, and silicon iron enterprise inventory has increased by 9.3% month - on - month, facing significant inventory pressure [4]. - **Challenge of cost support**: Recently, the correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices has been gradually weakening. The increase in coking coal prices has not driven up ferroalloy prices [4]. - **Contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality**: The anti - involution tone remains, and the market still has some enthusiasm. There are still certain expectations for supply - side contraction, but the high inventory of ferroalloys and weak downstream demand remain unchanged. The market's long - and short - term logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is a high risk of a price increase followed by a decline due to the lack of substantial action [4]. 3.4利多 and 利空解读 - **Positive factors**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which mentions that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should be no less than 1.5:1. The fourth round of price increases for coke has started. In October, China exported 828,000 vehicles, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 6.513 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. In October, China exported 443 ships, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 5660 ships, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In the first 10 months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% [6]. - **Negative factors**: The steel market is in the peak season but with weak performance. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. Pig iron production has continued to decline. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. The consumption side lacks driving force, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [6]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Silicon iron**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 26, with a daily increase of 60 and a weekly decrease of 56. The warehouse receipts were 7197, with a daily increase of 1498 and a weekly increase of 2688 [6]. - **Silicon manganese**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 38 and a weekly decrease of 28. The warehouse receipts were 16357, with a daily increase of 1999 and a weekly increase of 6337 [7][8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 24, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disruptions, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the ferroalloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - driven supply reduction and cost support, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and high inventory in some cases [7][8][9] Key Points by Section Ferroalloy Price and Hedging - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.1%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.0% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profit declined in early September, but has since recovered. Production remains at a five - year high, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, and there may be a "no - peak season" situation [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/degree, and there are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October. Although current manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disruptions need attention [4] - **Term Structure and Capital Withdrawal**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has worsened. Ferroalloy positions are decreasing, with silicon ferroalloy's total position at 396,000 lots (down 6% week - on - week) and silicon manganese's at 551,400 lots (down 2.75% week - on - week) [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations and Weak Reality**: There are expectations of supply reduction, but lack of substantial actions, leading to a high risk of price reversals [5] 利多解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces, and an important article in the "Qiushi" magazine may address industry competition issues. Silicon ferroalloy enterprise inventory is 63,400 tons (down 9.3% week - on - week), and total inventory is 151,500 tons (down 0.53% week - on - week) [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. There are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October, which may affect silicon manganese costs [7] 利空解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy enterprises maintain high operating rates, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about steel demand. Silicon manganese inventory is increasing, with enterprise inventory at 198,900 tons (up 19.24% week - on - week), total inventory at 502,300 tons (up 5.97% week - on - week), and Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon manganese price down 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 18, down 100 day - on - day and 68 week - on - week. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 day - on - day and 30 week - on - week [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 198, down 12 day - on - day and up 62 week - on - week. The spot price in Ningxia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 day - on - day and 20 week - on - week [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 11, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the trend of ferroalloys has mainly followed the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions has gradually disappeared, and the bearish factor restricting coking coal has also diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after the decline, also rebounded. The decline in ferroalloy production profits is expected to weaken the drive for further production increases. With the arrival of the normal water season, the output in the southern silicon-manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for a short-term rise in ferroalloys. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long-term trading logic still lies in the "anti-involution" expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are still expectations for supply-side contraction. The market's long-short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The market expects that the supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese, semi-coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, making it cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract price difference of the two silicons at -400. However, without substantial progress and actions in "anti-involution," there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5450 for the ferrosilicon main 11 contract and near 5700 for the silicon-manganese main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.78%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 34.7% - Silicon-manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 29.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The recent trend of ferroalloys follows the price of coking coal. After the military parade, the production restriction logic for steel mills has faded, and the bearish factor for coking coal has diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products like polysilicon and coking coal, causing ferroalloys near the cost line to rebound. The decline in production profits is expected to limit further production increases, and the output in southern silicon-manganese production areas will decline with the normal water season. The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, while that of coking coal has not. The long-term trading logic is based on the "anti-involution" expectation, and the market's long-short logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease, and it is cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. However, without substantial "anti-involution" progress, there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline [4] Bullish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon-manganese**: The government's control policies on high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon-manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton-degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton-degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October. Attention should be paid to the impact on manganese ore prices and silicon-manganese costs [6] Bearish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.88%. The demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon-manganese**: In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the overall black sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon-manganese demand. Silicon-manganese enterprise inventory is 160,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.72%. The demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.37% [7] Ferrosilicon Daily Data - Data includes ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [8] Silicon-manganese Daily Data - Data includes silicon-manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [9][10] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Data - The report provides term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon-manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production - restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3rd military parade, which leads to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. Also, the previous position - limit on coking coal contracts by the exchange reduces its liquidity, and the hype sentiment of anti - involution fades, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys follow the price of coking coal and decline. However, the ferroalloy price has dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution proposal, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still bottom support, but under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside [4]. - Ferroalloy profits have been continuously declining. The current production is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with weak driving force for further production increase. There is a possibility of production reduction driven by profit decline. With the production restriction of steel mills in some areas before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure on the upside [4]. - The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (semi - coke and manganese ore) is gradually expanding. It is more cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons, but the price of coal - based products fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.97% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.39% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.8% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can sell SF2511 and SM2601 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon iron warehouse receipts are 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 162,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 126,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 332,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 481,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The ferroalloy supply is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. Without improvement in downstream demand, its growth space is limited. The enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector declines, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The silicon - manganese demand is relatively weak. The production is 213,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the enterprise operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, showing the price changes from September 2, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar data including basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, along with the price changes of related raw materials [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 military parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. The previous position limits on coking coal contracts by the exchange have reduced its liquidity, and the hype sentiment has faded, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys have followed the downward trend of coking coal prices. However, ferroalloy prices have dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution campaign, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still support at the bottom, but due to high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside. Ferroalloy profits have been declining, and production is at a relatively high level in the past five years, with weak incentives for further production increases and a possibility of production cuts. With production restrictions on steel mills before the parade and no significant improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventories may shift from destocking to stockpiling. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, semi - coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, and it is cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 30.1% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 利多解读 Ferrosilicon - The demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [7]. Silicomanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicomanganese industry. The demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. Silicomanganese enterprise inventories are 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [8]. 利空解读 Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five years, with significant supply pressure. In the absence of improved downstream demand, its growth space is limited. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventories are 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [8]. Silicomanganese - In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicomanganese demand. Silicomanganese production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the Chinese enterprise operating rate is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [8]. Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 18, 01 - 05 was - 124, 05 - 09 was 284, 09 - 01 was - 160. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to August 29 and August 25. The number of warehouse receipts was 19331, a decrease compared to previous days [7][8]. Silicomanganese - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294, 01 - 05 was - 44, 05 - 09 was 138, 09 - 01 was - 94, and the price difference between the two silicons was - 204. Spot prices in different regions also declined compared to previous days. The number of warehouse receipts was 65760, a decrease compared to previous days [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal on the cost - side. Although current steel mill profits are good and hot metal production is high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimuli. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and there is limited upward pressure on ore prices. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations of supply contraction. The market's long - short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Driven by profits, ferroalloy production is increasing, and there is a possibility of inventory shifting from destocking to restocking. The logic of ferroalloys is related to coking coal prices, with large fluctuations in coking coal futures and intense capital games. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The price of ferroalloys is affected by coal prices. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is high, supporting ferroalloy demand. However, the long - term real estate market is weak, and the support from other industries is policy - dependent. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there is limited support for silicon - manganese from the ore side. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with increasing production and potential inventory restocking [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The price of Shaanxi semi - coke small pieces increased by 35 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton. The profit in Inner Mongolia's silicon - iron production area remained unchanged at - 49 yuan/ton, while that in Ningxia increased by 50 yuan/ton to 98 yuan/ton. This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, and the total silicon - iron inventory was 16.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The production cost in Ningxia was 5942.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.24 yuan/ton. The profit in the northern region was - 58.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.64 yuan/ton, and that in the southern region was - 417.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71 yuan/ton. The silicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 37.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total silicon - manganese inventory was 53.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [8]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. In July, the metal magnesium output was 8.17 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory was 10.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand. The weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, ferroalloy supply is increasing and is at a high level in the same period in the past 5 years, with high supply pressure. The inventory of the five major steel products is increasing, limiting the production space of steel mills and the growth space of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 58 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The price of semi - coke small pieces was 630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 35 yuan/ton from a week ago. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 20,597, a day - on - day decrease of 169 and a week - on - week decrease of 6 [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 264 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 188 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The prices of various manganese ores changed slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts was 73,048, a day - on - day decrease of 143 and a week - on - week decrease of 2398 [10][11].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the meeting last week, the market became clearer about the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The policy fell short of expectations, and the commodity market cooled down. Ferroalloys gave back previous gains and returned to their fundamentals. Steel mills' good profit and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand in the short - term, but long - term demand faces challenges from the weak real estate market and uncertain policy - driven support in the home appliance and automotive sectors. The manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support from the ore end to ferromanganese is insufficient. Although the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, there is still some market expectation for supply - side contraction, and the risk of shorting further is high with limited downside space [4] Detailed Summaries Price Forecast and Volatility - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, sell SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradictions - Policy on capacity governance is not as expected, leading to market cooling. Short - term ferroalloy demand is supported by steel mills' profit and high hot metal production, but long - term demand is uncertain due to the real estate market and policy - dependent sectors. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support for ferromanganese from the ore end is weak. There is still some expectation for supply - side contraction, but shorting further is risky [4] Bullish Factors - Silicon iron: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased, with Inner Mongolia at +85 yuan/ton (+6) and Ningxia at 282 yuan/ton (+56). The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the ferromanganese industry [5] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%, and the weekly output was 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The five - major steel products' demand for silicon iron this week was 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory was 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, and the total inventory was 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for ferromanganese is relatively weak. The profits in the northern and southern regions of ferromanganese are negative and decreasing. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the weekly output was 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The total inventory was 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the spot prices in various regions decreased, and the basis and futures spreads also changed. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 150 yuan/ton [7] - **Ferromanganese**: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the basis and futures spreads changed, and the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials also had slight fluctuations. For example, the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 46 yuan/ton, and the price of Tianjin Australian ore decreased by 0.5 [8] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and ferromanganese are provided, which can help analyze the historical performance and trends of the products [9][18][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].