Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 24, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disruptions, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the ferroalloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - driven supply reduction and cost support, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and high inventory in some cases [7][8][9] Key Points by Section Ferroalloy Price and Hedging - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.1%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.0% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profit declined in early September, but has since recovered. Production remains at a five - year high, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, and there may be a "no - peak season" situation [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/degree, and there are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October. Although current manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disruptions need attention [4] - **Term Structure and Capital Withdrawal**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has worsened. Ferroalloy positions are decreasing, with silicon ferroalloy's total position at 396,000 lots (down 6% week - on - week) and silicon manganese's at 551,400 lots (down 2.75% week - on - week) [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations and Weak Reality**: There are expectations of supply reduction, but lack of substantial actions, leading to a high risk of price reversals [5] 利多解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces, and an important article in the "Qiushi" magazine may address industry competition issues. Silicon ferroalloy enterprise inventory is 63,400 tons (down 9.3% week - on - week), and total inventory is 151,500 tons (down 0.53% week - on - week) [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. There are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October, which may affect silicon manganese costs [7] 利空解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy enterprises maintain high operating rates, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about steel demand. Silicon manganese inventory is increasing, with enterprise inventory at 198,900 tons (up 19.24% week - on - week), total inventory at 502,300 tons (up 5.97% week - on - week), and Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon manganese price down 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 18, down 100 day - on - day and 68 week - on - week. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 day - on - day and 30 week - on - week [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 198, down 12 day - on - day and up 62 week - on - week. The spot price in Ningxia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 day - on - day and 20 week - on - week [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 11, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the trend of ferroalloys has mainly followed the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions has gradually disappeared, and the bearish factor restricting coking coal has also diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after the decline, also rebounded. The decline in ferroalloy production profits is expected to weaken the drive for further production increases. With the arrival of the normal water season, the output in the southern silicon-manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for a short-term rise in ferroalloys. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long-term trading logic still lies in the "anti-involution" expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are still expectations for supply-side contraction. The market's long-short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The market expects that the supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese, semi-coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, making it cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract price difference of the two silicons at -400. However, without substantial progress and actions in "anti-involution," there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5450 for the ferrosilicon main 11 contract and near 5700 for the silicon-manganese main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.78%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 34.7% - Silicon-manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 29.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The recent trend of ferroalloys follows the price of coking coal. After the military parade, the production restriction logic for steel mills has faded, and the bearish factor for coking coal has diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products like polysilicon and coking coal, causing ferroalloys near the cost line to rebound. The decline in production profits is expected to limit further production increases, and the output in southern silicon-manganese production areas will decline with the normal water season. The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, while that of coking coal has not. The long-term trading logic is based on the "anti-involution" expectation, and the market's long-short logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease, and it is cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. However, without substantial "anti-involution" progress, there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline [4] Bullish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon-manganese**: The government's control policies on high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon-manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton-degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton-degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October. Attention should be paid to the impact on manganese ore prices and silicon-manganese costs [6] Bearish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.88%. The demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon-manganese**: In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the overall black sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon-manganese demand. Silicon-manganese enterprise inventory is 160,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.72%. The demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.37% [7] Ferrosilicon Daily Data - Data includes ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [8] Silicon-manganese Daily Data - Data includes silicon-manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [9][10] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Data - The report provides term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon-manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production - restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3rd military parade, which leads to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. Also, the previous position - limit on coking coal contracts by the exchange reduces its liquidity, and the hype sentiment of anti - involution fades, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys follow the price of coking coal and decline. However, the ferroalloy price has dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution proposal, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still bottom support, but under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside [4]. - Ferroalloy profits have been continuously declining. The current production is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with weak driving force for further production increase. There is a possibility of production reduction driven by profit decline. With the production restriction of steel mills in some areas before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure on the upside [4]. - The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (semi - coke and manganese ore) is gradually expanding. It is more cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons, but the price of coal - based products fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.97% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.39% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.8% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can sell SF2511 and SM2601 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon iron warehouse receipts are 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 162,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 126,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 332,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 481,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The ferroalloy supply is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. Without improvement in downstream demand, its growth space is limited. The enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector declines, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The silicon - manganese demand is relatively weak. The production is 213,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the enterprise operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, showing the price changes from September 2, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar data including basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, along with the price changes of related raw materials [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 military parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. The previous position limits on coking coal contracts by the exchange have reduced its liquidity, and the hype sentiment has faded, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys have followed the downward trend of coking coal prices. However, ferroalloy prices have dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution campaign, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still support at the bottom, but due to high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside. Ferroalloy profits have been declining, and production is at a relatively high level in the past five years, with weak incentives for further production increases and a possibility of production cuts. With production restrictions on steel mills before the parade and no significant improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventories may shift from destocking to stockpiling. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, semi - coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, and it is cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 30.1% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 利多解读 Ferrosilicon - The demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [7]. Silicomanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicomanganese industry. The demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. Silicomanganese enterprise inventories are 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [8]. 利空解读 Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five years, with significant supply pressure. In the absence of improved downstream demand, its growth space is limited. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventories are 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [8]. Silicomanganese - In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicomanganese demand. Silicomanganese production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the Chinese enterprise operating rate is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [8]. Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 18, 01 - 05 was - 124, 05 - 09 was 284, 09 - 01 was - 160. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to August 29 and August 25. The number of warehouse receipts was 19331, a decrease compared to previous days [7][8]. Silicomanganese - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294, 01 - 05 was - 44, 05 - 09 was 138, 09 - 01 was - 94, and the price difference between the two silicons was - 204. Spot prices in different regions also declined compared to previous days. The number of warehouse receipts was 65760, a decrease compared to previous days [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal on the cost - side. Although current steel mill profits are good and hot metal production is high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries depends on policy stimuli. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and there is limited upward pressure on ore prices. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations of supply contraction. The market's long - short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Driven by profits, ferroalloy production is increasing, and there is a possibility of inventory shifting from destocking to restocking. The logic of ferroalloys is related to coking coal prices, with large fluctuations in coking coal futures and intense capital games. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The price of ferroalloys is affected by coal prices. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is high, supporting ferroalloy demand. However, the long - term real estate market is weak, and the support from other industries is policy - dependent. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there is limited support for silicon - manganese from the ore side. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with increasing production and potential inventory restocking [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The price of Shaanxi semi - coke small pieces increased by 35 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton. The profit in Inner Mongolia's silicon - iron production area remained unchanged at - 49 yuan/ton, while that in Ningxia increased by 50 yuan/ton to 98 yuan/ton. This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19%, and the total silicon - iron inventory was 16.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The production cost in Ningxia was 5942.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.24 yuan/ton. The profit in the northern region was - 58.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.64 yuan/ton, and that in the southern region was - 417.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71 yuan/ton. The silicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 37.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.63%, and the total silicon - manganese inventory was 53.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64% [8]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the weekly output was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. In July, the metal magnesium output was 8.17 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%. The silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory was 10.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand. The weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%, and the weekly output was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.77%. Driven by profits, ferroalloy supply is increasing and is at a high level in the same period in the past 5 years, with high supply pressure. The inventory of the five major steel products is increasing, limiting the production space of steel mills and the growth space of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 58 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The price of semi - coke small pieces was 630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 35 yuan/ton from a week ago. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 20,597, a day - on - day decrease of 169 and a week - on - week decrease of 6 [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 20, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 264 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 188 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The prices of various manganese ores changed slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts was 73,048, a day - on - day decrease of 143 and a week - on - week decrease of 2398 [10][11].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the meeting last week, the market became clearer about the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The policy fell short of expectations, and the commodity market cooled down. Ferroalloys gave back previous gains and returned to their fundamentals. Steel mills' good profit and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand in the short - term, but long - term demand faces challenges from the weak real estate market and uncertain policy - driven support in the home appliance and automotive sectors. The manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support from the ore end to ferromanganese is insufficient. Although the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, there is still some market expectation for supply - side contraction, and the risk of shorting further is high with limited downside space [4] Detailed Summaries Price Forecast and Volatility - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, sell SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradictions - Policy on capacity governance is not as expected, leading to market cooling. Short - term ferroalloy demand is supported by steel mills' profit and high hot metal production, but long - term demand is uncertain due to the real estate market and policy - dependent sectors. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support for ferromanganese from the ore end is weak. There is still some expectation for supply - side contraction, but shorting further is risky [4] Bullish Factors - Silicon iron: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased, with Inner Mongolia at +85 yuan/ton (+6) and Ningxia at 282 yuan/ton (+56). The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the ferromanganese industry [5] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%, and the weekly output was 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The five - major steel products' demand for silicon iron this week was 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory was 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, and the total inventory was 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for ferromanganese is relatively weak. The profits in the northern and southern regions of ferromanganese are negative and decreasing. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the weekly output was 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The total inventory was 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the spot prices in various regions decreased, and the basis and futures spreads also changed. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 150 yuan/ton [7] - **Ferromanganese**: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the basis and futures spreads changed, and the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials also had slight fluctuations. For example, the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 46 yuan/ton, and the price of Tianjin Australian ore decreased by 0.5 [8] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and ferromanganese are provided, which can help analyze the historical performance and trends of the products [9][18][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Iron Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 20.20%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 54.1% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5300 - 6000, Current Volatility: 13.67%, Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 18.9% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 15% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 6200 - 6250, SM 6400 - 6500 [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: SF 5100 - 5200, SM 5300 - 5400 [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Trend - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloys maintained a slow upward trend. With profit recovery, the operating rate increased, and production was above the seasonal level. Production slightly increased, but downstream demand didn't change significantly. Silicon iron showed a stockpiling trend, and the de - stocking speed of silicon manganese slowed down. Considering factors such as the reduction of manganese ore quotes in August, the resumption of Australian ore shipments, and the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. After the market recovery, there is a high possibility of increased production due to profit repair, and supply pressure may gradually increase. Silicon iron is under pressure at 5600 - 5700, and silicon manganese at 5800 - 5900. However, the overall price center of the black sector has moved up, and coal prices are strengthening, so the downside space of ferroalloys is limited. Ferroalloys may maintain a volatile trend [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia production area profit: - 261.5 yuan/ton (+70); Ningxia production area profit: - 98 yuan/ton (+50). With profit repair, there is a possibility of increased production. The weekly operating rate of silicon iron producers is 31.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%, and the weekly output is 9.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32). The enterprise inventory is 22.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67%; the warehouse receipts are 42.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1%; the total inventory is 64.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Iron - This week, the enterprise inventory is 7.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.78%. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical level after re - registration following the June cancellation rule. The expected decline in hot metal production weakens the support for ferroalloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and the decline of the black sector make the market skeptical about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese producers is 40.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, and the weekly output is 18.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Iron - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 66, the 01 - 05 spread is - 60, the 05 - 09 spread is 134, the 09 - 01 spread is - 74. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related raw materials and warehouse receipts are also provided [8] Silicon Manganese - On July 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 168, the 01 - 05 spread is - 34, the 05 - 09 spread is 74, the 09 - 01 spread is - 40, the double - silicon spread is - 298. The spot prices in different regions, the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials, and warehouse receipts are also provided [9][10] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts of silicon iron market price, basis, futures spreads, and total inventory, as well as silicon manganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]

Report Title - Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] Date - July 10, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Ferrous alloys showed a certain rebound sentiment driven by the rebound in coal prices and technical buying. Last week, they maintained an upward trend with the proposed elimination of outdated production capacity. The recent upward trend is mainly due to policy expectations and the strength of coal prices. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price cuts and weakening costs. In the context of the gradual entry of terminal steel demand into the off - season, the long - term trend of ferrous alloys remains relatively weak. With profit restoration, the operating rate has rebounded, and production is in a state of over - seasonal increase. Output has slightly increased, but downstream demand has not changed significantly, and there is a trend of inventory accumulation. With the price reduction of manganese ore in August and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, combined with the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferrous alloys are expected to continue to operate weakly. Although ferrous alloys, as an over - capacity industry, benefited from the policy of eliminating outdated production capacity last week, after the market recovery, there is a high possibility of profit restoration and increased production, supply pressure will gradually increase, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. In the short term, the strong expectation is prevailing in the game between strong expectation and weak reality, and it remains to be seen whether the expectation can be realized [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Alloy Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 16.37% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.7%, and for ferromanganese, it is 14.42% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] Ferrous Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [2] Core Contradiction - Ferrous alloys rebounded due to coal price and policy factors, but the long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mills' price cuts, weakening costs, and off - season demand. There is a trend of over - seasonal production increase and inventory accumulation. After the market recovery, supply pressure may increase [3] Bullish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.46%. The profit in the Ningxia production area was - 148 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [4] - **Ferromanganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the profit in the northern region was - 158.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.54 yuan, and in the southern region, it was - 489.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.98 yuan [6] Bearish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: There is a possibility of increased production due to profit restoration. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 31.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25%, and the weekly output was 100,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%. There is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of ferrous alloys. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration following the June cancellation rules. The expected decline in hot metal production will weaken the support for ferrous alloys [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand lead to weak demand for ferromanganese. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 40.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%, and the weekly output was 180,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [8] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 8, a day - on - day decrease of 92 and a week - on - week decrease of 6. The 01 - 05 spread was - 46, a day - on - day decrease of 10 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 84, a day - on - day increase of 6 and a week - on - week increase of 42. The 09 - 01 spread was - 38, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 17,855, a day - on - day increase of 5028 and a week - on - week increase of 8177 [9] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 132, a day - on - day decrease of 68 and a week - on - week increase of 8. The 01 - 05 spread was - 24, a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 12. The 05 - 09 spread was 60, a day - on - day decrease of 12 and a week - on - week decrease of 16. The 09 - 01 spread was - 36, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The double - silicon spread was - 326, a day - on - day decrease of 26 and a week - on - week decrease of 36. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 85,444, a day - on - day decrease of 547 and a week - on - week decrease of 4154 [10][11] Seasonal Charts - Provided seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]