Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decrease, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a single - sided driver. The near - month contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - month contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the long - near and short - far positive spread logic [4]. - Rapeseed meal will remain in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expectation of additional Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, so it is regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warrant registration after the centralized cancellation of warrants in November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans will be further reduced and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases can be realized. The domestic market has a positive spread logic of near - strong and far - weak [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will be in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected supply recovery and limited demand growth, it is regarded as weak, and attention can be paid to the warrant registration after the November cancellation [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices, the external market balance sheet's price range moves up, and the pressure on near - month contracts eases during the warrant cancellation month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The current near - month supply of imported soybeans is high, Brazilian planting is smooth with a high - yield expectation, and the far - month supply gap is filled under the Sino - US negotiation and procurement background [8]. 3.4 Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3012, down 5 (- 0.17%); soybean meal 05 is 2803, down 8 (- 0.28%); soybean meal 09 is 2915, down 11 (- 0.38%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2431, up 19 (0.79%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2367, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2435, down 9 (- 0.37%); CBOT soybeans are 1123, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1198, up 0.0019 (0.03%) [9]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures and spot are presented in the report, such as the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 209, up 3, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 64, up 29 [10]. 3.5 Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4759.4897 yuan/ton, up 47.3957 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 879.9197 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3817.15 yuan/ton, down 37.46 yuan/ton, with a profit of 182.5377 yuan/ton. The import cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 773.9008 yuan/ton, up 7.8381 yuan/ton. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 692 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and the spot profit is 954 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the potential repeated submission of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, coal price weakness driving the futures market down, spot price fluctuations due to individual device operations, sufficient supply and weak demand in the PP market, and continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors are that device overhauls in some enterprises such as Binhuahua, Haiwei, and Xintai have led to a rebound in spot prices. Negative factors are that PDH has not shown significant negative feedback in the short - term despite losses, and the downstream market, especially the PP market, remains weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.121 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.5432 [1]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - sell propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton and short - sell call options (PL2601C6000) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and short - sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry Data - **Upstream raw material prices**: On November 19, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $63.16/barrel, down $1.2 from the previous day; WTI was at $59.41/barrel, down $1.16. Other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed price changes. For example, MOPJ was at $561.94/ton, down $9.39 [5]. - **Mid - stream propylene prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of propylene in the East China region was 5925 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price difference between CFR China and FOB South Korea remained at $35/ton [5]. - **Downstream product prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of polypropylene granules was 6440 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Other downstream products like acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, etc., also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Profit situation**: Main refinery profit was 704.12 yuan/ton, and MTO monomer profit was - 179.17 yuan/ton. PDH profit was in a continuous loss state, with propylene PDH profit - FEI at - 225.20 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price difference situation**: The price difference between MOPJ and propylene was 1829.03 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was not available on November 19, 2025 [5].

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——EG供需承压格局难改 2025/11/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3750-4200 | 15.19% | 26.4% | | PX | 6300-7100 | 14.65% | 37.0% | | PTA | 4300-4900 | 13.86% | 23.8% | | 瓶片 | 5400-6000 | 10.84% | 27.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 【核心矛盾】 总体来看，乙二醇需求端变化不大，聚酯需求11月预计维持在91%附近，12月起随季节性走弱。近期供 应端装置意外较多，后续累库斜率有所缓和，在价格上与11月9日的周报观点一致，动力煤走势偏强的背景下 成本端支撑加强，表现为3900下方继续破位下跌难度变大。但长期来看，累库斜率放缓与兑现推迟均为节奏 问 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory as of November 7th was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5), with a daily average outbound volume of 66,300 cubic meters per day (+3,500), maintaining resilience. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased this week. The impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small. The lg2601 contract showed a weekly increase of 1.28% and remained in a low - volatility oscillation state this week, while the lg2603 contract rose 0.38% with a position of only 4,000 lots. There is an opportunity to short the 01 - 03 spread in the long - term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price declines, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 740 - 750 [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: lg2601 closed at 775.5 (-11) with a position of 17,000 lots, and lg2603 closed at 791.5 (-5) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price decreased this week. For example, the market price of 5.9 - meter medium A logs in Lanshan area was 770 (-10) [4]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 811 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 803 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7th, the national inventory was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5) [4]. Core Contradictions - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory is increasing, and the daily average outbound volume remains resilient. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased, and the impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small [5]. Strategies - Short at high prices. - Pay attention to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity in the long - term. - Short the lg2601 - C - 800 position at high prices [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The inventory is relatively low [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products; the reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products at non - mainstream delivery warehouses; the decline in spot prices and weak market demand [9].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵司的主营业务是铅精矿（含银）还有锌精矿，少量 铜精矿（含银），最近有色金属铅，锌，银和铜都一直在涨，如果在价格上涨期套保，就会用一笔钱买 回期货亏损，抵消现货价格上涨的浮盈。是否可以暂时对自有矿山的矿产品不做任何套保？ 西藏珠峰（600338.SH）11月19日在投资者互动平台表示，公司及控股子公司开展期货套保业务，不以 套利、投机为目的，旨在对冲自产商品价格波动风险。公司将密切关注有色金属期现价差变动，谨慎选 择套保工具，达到有效实现对产品价格波动进行风险管理的目的，以保持公司经营业绩持续、稳定。 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-14 EG高供应，本周主港延续累库 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3892元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.03%），EG华东市场现货价 3943元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.55%），EG华东现货基差59元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-62美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-987 元/吨（环比-38元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为66.1万吨（环比+9.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.6万吨，副 港到港量6.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量4.7万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度累 库。隆众口径周四较周一累库1.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongda Co., Ltd. utilizes futures hedging to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations on production costs, primarily relying on copper and aluminum as key raw materials [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on November 6 regarding its approach to raw material price volatility [1] - The main raw materials for the company's products are copper and aluminum [1] - The company typically employs futures hedging strategies to smooth out the effects of raw material price fluctuations on production costs [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory remains high, and the arrival pressure in November is still significant. The overseas supply pressure is large as Iran has not announced winter inspections. Attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the December Fude maintenance plan and the opening of the window for methanol to flow back to the mainland as port prices fall [3] - The mainland inventory is continuously accumulating. Mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol start - up rate has further increased in November, and the mainland inventory has been rebuilt from a low level. The demand from mainland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The mainland is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The report includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated ones) [6][35][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - There are figures showing regional price differences, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures present the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][53][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the context of China - US negotiations. With the expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in, the ending inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range moves up slightly. There is limited upward drive due to the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by the high near - month inventory. Buying US soybeans will bring a downward drive for the far - month, but the cost support moves up during the outer - market rebound, so the decline is also limited. The inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations. It shows slightly stronger in the short - term due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, but chasing long is not advisable. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent warrant changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price prediction for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.2%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high imports and low prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3] Core Contradictions - Outer - market US soybeans are export - demand - driven. Inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by high near - month inventory, and buying US soybeans will affect far - month prices. Inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations and warrant cancellation [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The outer - market strengthens continuously when buying US soybeans. The pressure on the near - month contract is relieved as it enters the warrant cancellation month [5][6] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The current near - month supply shows high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation. The smooth planting in Brazil and the repair of the far - month supply gap under China - US negotiations are negative factors [6][9] Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3021, up 27 (0.9%); soybean meal 05 is 2813, up 14 (0.5%); soybean meal 09 is 2930, up 12 (0.41%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2388, down 13 (- 0.54%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2342, up 7 (0.3%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2432, up 3 (0.12%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1115, up 8 (0.72%); the offshore RMB is 7.122, up 0.0089 (0.13%) [7][10] Price Spreads - For soybean meal, M01 - 05 spread is 208, up 13; M05 - 09 is - 117, up 2; M09 - 01 is - 91, down 15. For rapeseed meal, RM01 - 05 spread is 46, down 20; RM05 - 09 is - 90, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 44, up 16. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3020, up 20; the basis is - 1, down 7. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2450, unchanged; the basis is 62, up 13. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570, up 20; the futures spread is 633, up 40 [11] Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4727.8317 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import cost is 4062.33 yuan/ton, up 20.17. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 852.6667 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import profit is - 43.7567 yuan/ton, down 15.4341. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 497 yuan/ton, down 92; in the spot market, it is 765 yuan/ton, down 92 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].