油料产业风险管理日报 2025/10/09 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 13.8% | 28.4% | | 菜粕：2350-2750 | 18.5% | 38.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 ...

生产环节，企业年度订单充裕，通过框架协议确立长期合作意向，在此基础上的单笔订单生产周期为40天，涵盖从原料投入到成品产出的完整流程。 采购环节，企业生产所需原料为线材，月度平均用量为3500吨，年度用量约为4万吨，交货周期为1周。原料定价采用"线材价格+加工费"的市场化模式，参 照沙钢每月1日公布的基准价格，按中、高档分级定价。当线材价格波动幅度超过5%时，将显著影响公司利润水平。因此，需在年度均价以下进行采购，以 维持竞争优势。 | 生产环节 | 采销模式 | 以销定产 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 订車周期 | 年度订单偏多(框 | | | | 架),月度下订单 | | | 生产周期 | 40天 | | 采购环节 | 定价 | | | | | (线材+加工费) 随行就市,每月1 | | | | 号沙钢公布价格 | | | 交货周期 | 1 周 | | | 原料采购产品类型 | 线材 | | | 原料成本占比高于 多少对利润有极端 | 5%以上 | | | 影响 | | | | 原料月度、 | 月度3500吨, | | | 年度用量 | 年度 4万吨左右 | | 销售环节 | 定价 | ...

南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 10.16% | 31.4% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 种植主体，秋季收获新豆售粮 需求较大，但阶段性卖压较大 | 多 | 借助期价反弹，适当 锁定种植利润，做空 | A2511 | 空 | 30% | 4000-4050（持有） | | | 使价格承压 | | 豆一期货 | | | | | | 库存管理 | 集中上市，卖方议价权减弱 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权，提高 | A2511- ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 宏观预期和产业逻辑的矛盾；远月有政策预期和成本抬升预期，暂无法证伪；近端现实一般，需要观察旺季下中游的去 库能力 【利多解读】 成本仍保留抬升预期，影响远月定价；政策预期尚无法完全排除，供应端或需求侧故事或被反复交易 【利空解读】 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 32.42% | 83.6% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 22.39% | 25.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New grain seasonal supply is abundant, putting pressure on spot prices later [4]. - New grain listing has increased slightly, and the mainstream price of raw grain has dropped to 1.85 - 1.88 yuan per catty [4]. - The soybean No. 1 futures continue the rhythm of volume - increasing decline and volume - decreasing rebound, and attention should be paid to the rebound strength [4]. - The resumption of auctions intensifies the market supply pressure, and attention should be paid to the transaction situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000 yuan per ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.16% and a current volatility historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new grains in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2511) with a hedging ratio of 30% and a suggested entry range of 4000 - 4050 (holding) [3]. - When there is a concentrated listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a hedging ratio of 30% and a suggested entry range of 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For those worried about the rise in raw grain prices and the increase in procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait for spot procurement in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are recommended, waiting for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - There was widespread rainfall in the Heilongjiang production area, delaying the harvesting operation in some areas [4]. - The short - side of the 11 - contract significantly reduced positions, leading to a large - scale rebound in the futures price [4]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - The e - commerce platform of China National Grain Reserves Corporation will organize a special session for the competitive sale of domestic soybeans on September 26, 2025, with a sales volume of 19349 tons. The resumption of auctions increases the pressure on the spot market, and the futures market may have priced in this bearish factor [4]. - On September 24, Liangda.com planned to auction 7330 tons of raw soybeans from Rongtong Company, with a starting price of 3820 - 3930 yuan per ton, and all auctions failed [4]. 3.4 Market Price Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 Close Price | 2025 - 09 - 24 Close Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 3878 | 3907 | 29 | 0.75% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 3871 | 3893 | 22 | 0.57% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 3877 | 3894 | 17 | 0.44% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 3920 | 3928 | 8 | 0.20% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 3924 | 3927 | 3 | 0.08% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 3932 | 3934 | 2 | 0.05% | [4]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-09-24 EB基差进一步走弱 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-30元/吨（+36）。纯苯港口库存10.70万吨（-2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费132美元/吨 （-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费114美元/吨（-2美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差37.5美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差0元/吨（+20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1890元/吨（-85），酚酮生产利润-196元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润62元/吨（+91）， 己二酸生产利润-1306元/吨（-12）。己内酰胺开工率88.69%（+2.48%），苯酚开工率71.00%（+2.00%），苯胺开工 率71.95%（+6.74%），己二酸开工率62.60%（-1.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差0元/吨（-42元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-562元/吨（-87元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存186500吨（+27500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存98500吨（+20500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.4%（-1.5%）。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, with a divergence in far - month pricing and uncertainty about near - term direction, which depends on the downstream destocking ability during the peak season [2] - For glass, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, the phased restocking ability is weak, some production lines may have ignition plans, and policy expectations fluctuate. The daily melting on the supply side is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expected. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high, normal maintenance continues, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II in the fourth quarter. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and there is an expectation of price increase. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.60% and a historical percentile of 74.3% over 3 years. For soda ash, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 19.07% and a historical percentile of 13.9% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory, short FG2601 futures at 1400 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Glass Purchase Management**: For low glass purchase inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash product inventory, short SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - **Soda Ash Purchase Management**: For low soda ash purchase inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Glass and Soda Ash Market Data Glass - On September 19, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1343, 1405, and 1216 respectively, with daily increases of 1.13%, 1.3%, and 0.66% [4] - The spot prices of glass in most regions remained stable on September 19, 2025, with only slight declines in some brands in the Shahe area [5] Soda Ash - On September 19, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1407, 1454, and 1318 respectively, with daily increases of 0.5%, 0.83%, and 0.92% [6] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained unchanged on September 18, 2025, except for a 12 - unit increase in the Shahe heavy - soda price [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybeans is currently in a stage of loose supply, causing the spot price to decline [4]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for lower prices, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm and a bearish sentiment [4]. - The soybean futures market has broken through key levels, with increased positions and trading volume in active contracts, strengthening the bearish trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is predicted to be between 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. - **Risk Strategies**: - For inventory management of planting subjects, when there is a large demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but significant selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean futures contract at a hedging ratio of 30% in the price range of 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits [3]. - When there is a concentrated listing of soybeans and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is advisable to sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a hedging ratio of 30% in the range of 40 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [3]. - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is mainly recommended to wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts, waiting for price guidance in autumn [3]. Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: - Uncertainty in Sino - US trade. If soybean imports from the US continue to be halted or delayed in Q4, it may create a demand window for domestic soybeans [4]. - The suspension of this week's auctions, with attention on subsequent auction arrangements [4]. - There is an expected recovery in the demand for edible soybeans starting from September [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - The supply of soybeans is in a stage of loose supply, which is the core factor affecting the market [4][6]. - Purchasers are still waiting for lower prices, pushing the market to seek a new balance downwards [4][6]. - The closing prices of soybean No. 1 contracts on September 17, 2025, all declined compared to September 16, with daily declines ranging from 28 - 30 and daily decline rates from 0.70% - 0.76% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by fertilizer companies, particularly in the context of fluctuating urea prices and the implementation of the "Commercial Storage Without Worries" project, which aims to mitigate risks for storage enterprises through financial tools and risk management mechanisms [1][4]. Group 1: Market Challenges - Urea production is at an average daily output of 190,000 tons, with demand shrinking and exports not being opened, leading to concerns about inventory becoming a "hot potato" for storage companies [1]. - The volatility in urea prices has transformed the responsibility of storage from a duty to a high-risk burden for enterprises involved in national fertilizer reserves [2]. Group 2: "Commercial Storage Without Worries" Project - The "Commercial Storage Without Worries" project was initiated to provide financial support for storage enterprises, allowing them to hedge against price risks and effectively manage their operations [2]. - Participation in the project has grown from 5 companies to 52 over five years, indicating its success and the establishment of a risk management mechanism that covers storage costs and supports futures trading [2][4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Financial Outcomes - The company utilized futures tools to establish short positions, successfully generating a profit of approximately 1.8 million yuan from a 200 yuan per ton price drop in the futures market, which offset the depreciation of their physical inventory [3]. - The effective use of futures as a hedging tool has allowed storage companies to stabilize their operations and protect inventory value, demonstrating a successful case of risk management in the fertilizer industry [3][4].

2025年以来，生猪期货市场上演着一场别样戏码——期货价格始终低于现货价格，这一独特的贴水态 势，恰似一面精准的市场棱镜，将期货市场的价格发现功能展现得淋漓尽致。当前，市场普遍预期生猪 供应将维持宽松格局。期货价格曲线结构的变化，为产业主体提供了前瞻性的风险信号。 龙头企业的套保智慧 在河南南阳，牧原食品股份有限公司（下称牧原股份）的总部大楼里，一支精锐的期货团队正紧盯着电 脑屏幕，依据精心打磨的成本模型，灵活调整着套保头寸。时光回溯至生猪期货上市之前，牧原股份便 已敏锐布局，组建起专业的期货团队。如今，一套涵盖期货研究、风险控制、套保决策与现货交割的完 善体系已在公司内部生根发芽，每个业务板块都有专人悉心打理。 "2021年1月生猪期货鸣锣上市后，我们马不停蹄地完善了期货套保制度，成立了期货决策小组，并勇敢 迈出了套保操作的第一步。"牧原股份相关负责人自豪地说。在这一过程中，他们不断复盘修正，努力 降低摩擦成本，提升决策效率。团队成员对生猪期货市场的脉搏把握愈发精准，积累了丰富的市场驱动 逻辑经验，能够娴熟运用期货的价格发现和套期保值功能，为企业生产经营"保驾护航"。 尤其在2025年期货价格持续贴水的复杂 ...