Financial Performance - Conagra forecasts profit for this fiscal year below Wall Street's expectations [1] Cost Factors - The packaged goods company pointed to rising costs from US tariffs [1]

Packaged food giants Conagra Brands (CAG 1.18%) and The Campbell's Company (CPB 0.71%) are both down more than 25% year to date and are hovering around their lowest levels in over a decade.Both companies are industry giants. Conagra owns brands like Orville Redenbacher's, Slim Jim, Boom Chicka Pop, Hunt's, Reddi-Wip, Marie Callender's, and more. In addition to its flagship soup line, Campbell's also owns a variety of pasta sauce and dip brands, as well as snacks like Pepperidge Farm, Kettle, Cape Cod, Snyde ...

Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when General Mills (GIS) reports results for the quarter ended May 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on June 25, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectati ...

Core Viewpoint - J.M. Smucker's stock has significantly declined following its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results and updated fiscal 2026 guidance, presenting a potential buying opportunity due to its high-yield dividend and attractive valuation [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net sales decreased by 3% year over year in Q4, but increased by 7% for the full fiscal year [4] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 2% to $10.12, with fiscal 2026 guidance expecting net sales growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted EPS to decline to between $8.50 and $9.50 [4] - Free cash flow (FCF) for fiscal 2025 was $816.6 million, covering $455.4 million in dividend payments, with expectations for FCF to rise to $875 million in fiscal 2026 [10][11] Pricing Strategy and Market Conditions - The company is facing record-high green coffee production costs, leading to planned price increases in May and August [5][6] - Price increases have been implemented across various product lines, including Uncrustables, which saw its first price hike in over three years [7] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which includes Hostess, has underperformed, with net sales down 26% year over year [9] Dividend Stability - J.M. Smucker has raised its dividend for 29 consecutive years, with a current yield of 4.6% due to the stock sell-off [11] - The company has a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, indicating strong potential to support its dividend payments [12] Valuation Metrics - The forward price-to-FCF ratio is 11.5, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio is 10.5, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to historical averages [13][14] - The company's market cap has fallen to $10.05 billion, with the Sweet Baked Snacks segment contributing only 12% of total net sales [9] Investment Opportunity - Despite the challenges, J.M. Smucker continues to generate substantial free cash flow and offers a reliable dividend, making it an attractive investment for the second half of 2025 [19]

Core Insights - The FMCG sector in China continues to experience price deflation, leading to slower overall value growth, with a 0.8% annual value growth in 2024 supported by a 4.4% volume growth but hindered by a 3.4% decline in average selling prices [3][5][24] Market Performance - In 2024, the quarterly growth rates for China's FMCG were 1.5% in Q1, 1.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q3, and a slight rebound to 0.4% in Q4. The first quarter of 2025 saw a 2.7% growth compared to the same quarter in the previous year, aided by improved macroeconomic indicators and government policies [4][5] - Home care led FMCG growth in 2024 with a 2.4% annual increase, followed by packaged food at 2.0% and beverages at 1.5%. Personal care, however, declined by 2.3% [7][10] Category Trends - In Q1 2025, home care grew by 6.1%, personal care rebounded with a 4.0% increase, and packaged food rose by 3.2%, while beverage growth stagnated at 0.5% [11] - The premium segment outperformed the overall market in categories like juice, instant coffee, toothpaste, and sanitary pads, driven by innovations and product upgrades [22] Channel Dynamics - The overall channel mix for FMCG remained stable, with grocery and super/mini formats outperforming in Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities, while club warehouses grew in higher-tier cities [12] - Online channels saw rapid growth in Douyin, while community group buying and horizontal marketplaces faced declines. Vertical grocery e-commerce grew by 26.0% in 2024 [15][16] Brand Competition - Domestic brands gained market share from foreign brands, claiming 76% of the market in 2024, with intense competition leading to the top five brands losing share in over half of FMCG categories [18][21] - The report suggests that brands must choose between specializing in the premium segment or competing in mass/mainstream segments to succeed in the current environment [24][25]

May 21, 2025 02:09 AM GMT The Kraft Heinz Co | North America Packaged Foods | United States of America | Stock Rating | Underweight | | --- | --- | | Industry View | In-Line | | Price target | $28.00 | | Shr price, close (May 20, 2025) | $27.90 | | Mkt cap, curr (mm) | $33,131 | | 52-Week Range | $36.53-27.14 | Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect ...

Conagra Brands (CAG) Conference Summary Company Overview - Conagra Brands is one of the largest packaged food companies in the US, with a diverse portfolio including frozen snacks and shelf-stable products, serving retail, food service, and international markets. Notable brands include Marie Callender's, Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, and Slim Jim [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Portfolio Transformation - Over the past ten years, Conagra has transformed from a diversified global holding company to a branded pure play focused on North America. This involved modernizing existing brands, acquiring new businesses, and divesting underperforming assets [4][5]. - The current portfolio has a significant focus on organic net sales from retail, particularly in frozen and permissible snacking, which now constitutes about two-thirds of retail sales [5][6]. Consumer Trends and Market Environment - The company has observed a shift towards conservatism among consumers due to prolonged inflation and economic uncertainty. This trend affects all income groups, particularly lower-income consumers [9][10]. - The current environment is characterized by cautious spending, with consumers prioritizing value and quality in their purchases [10][11]. Promotional Strategy - Conagra has reduced promotional activities compared to pre-COVID levels, focusing on high-quality merchandising rather than deep discounting. This strategy aims to drive volume growth through quality products [12][14]. - The competitive landscape remains rational, with a collective industry focus on improving volume trends after experiencing declines [16][18]. Input Costs and Inflation - The company faces significant input cost pressures, particularly from tariffs on tinplate and aluminum, with a 25% tariff impacting costs. Mitigation strategies include negotiating with suppliers and exploring alternative sourcing [20][22]. - Inflation is projected at 4% for the fiscal year, up from an initial estimate of 3%. The company is actively managing costs and exploring pricing strategies to offset inflationary pressures [26][27][54]. Frozen and Snacking Segments - The frozen food segment is experiencing a return to volume growth, driven by consumer demand for convenience and quality. The company aims to educate consumers on the benefits of frozen foods, which are perceived as high-quality and cost-effective [33][35][38]. - In the snacking category, Conagra has focused on permissible snacking options, such as meat snacks and popcorn, which have shown strong growth despite broader industry softness. The company has expanded its portfolio to include various meat snack brands [39][41][46]. Future Outlook and Guidance - The company is optimistic about maintaining volume growth and improving margins, despite ongoing supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures. The focus remains on optimizing trade management and promotional investments [49][52][54]. - Conagra plans to provide further guidance for fiscal year 2026 in the upcoming earnings call, with expectations of navigating through current uncertainties [60][62]. Capital Allocation and Debt Management - Conagra emphasizes a balanced approach to capital allocation, prioritizing debt paydown while also considering investments in business modernization and strategic acquisitions. The recent divestiture of Chef Boyardee aligns with this strategy [67][72]. - The company has successfully reduced leverage and aims to continue generating free cash flow to support debt reduction and strategic growth initiatives [64][66]. Additional Important Insights - The company has experienced supply chain disruptions, particularly in its frozen vegetable and chicken businesses, but is on track to recover by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2026 [75][78]. - Innovations, such as the Banquet Mega Chicken Filet, have driven demand and contributed to supply challenges, highlighting the importance of product development in meeting consumer needs [79][80].

B&G Foods (BGS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants AJ Schwabe - Senior Associate, Corporate Strategy and Business DevelopmentKenneth C. Keller - President, Chief Executive Officer and DirectorBruce Wacha - CFO & Executive VP of FinanceRobert Moskow - Managing Director Conference Call Participants Michael Lavery - Senior Equity Research AnalystScott Marks - Equity Research AnalystWilliam Reuter - AnalystNone - Analyst Operator Good day, and welcome to the B G Foods First Qua ...

B&G Foods (BGS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 04:30 PM ET Speaker0 Good day, and welcome to the B G Foods First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. Today's call, which is being recorded, is scheduled to last about one hour, included remarks by B and G Foods management and the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to A. J. Schwab, Senior Associate, Corporate Strategy and Business Development for B and G Foods. A. J? Speaker1 Good afternoon, and thank you for joining u ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Market uncertainty is high due to economic and geopolitical issues, with the S&P 500 index falling around 8% since the start of the year, having previously dropped by approximately 15% [1] - Consumer staples stocks have generally risen a couple of percentage points on average, but specific companies like PepsiCo have seen declines [1][2] Group 2: PepsiCo's Performance - PepsiCo's stock is down 7% this year and over 25% from its peak in 2023, facing challenges such as slowed revenue growth and investor perception issues [4][5] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in its salty snack business and is affected by a societal shift towards healthier eating habits [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - PepsiCo's guidance for 2025 includes low-single-digit organic sales growth and mid-single-digit core earnings-per-share growth, along with a 5% increase in dividends, marking the 53rd increase for the company [7] - The stock's dividend yield has risen to around 3.8%, indicating that it may be undervalued compared to historical levels, even higher than during the Great Recession [8][10] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Traditional valuation metrics show that PepsiCo's price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, and price-to-book value ratios are all below their five-year averages, suggesting the stock is currently cheap [10] - The company is actively using acquisitions to reshape its portfolio, laying the groundwork for a potential rebound despite current challenges [11]