But I want to emphasize, don't underestimate the type of volatility. If you take European gas in 2022, we saw Russia cut it. And by the way, the market ignored it in June of 2022.By August and September, you were at three $400 a barrel. Do you know where prices were in December of that year after you destroyed so much demand, they went negative. Um, so I'm not going to say oil's going negative, but what I'm trying to tell you is it's going to be a really bumpy ride.You've seen no evidence of demand destruct ...

>> YOU RETOOL. >> WELCOME BACK, PRESIDENT TRUMP THIS MORNING WAIVING THE JONES ACT FOR 60 DAYS IN A BID TO CALM OIL PRICES, WHICH ARE HIGHER AGAIN THIS MORNING AS THE WAR IN IRAN ESCALATES. LET'S BRING IN DAN STRUYVEN.HE IS CO-HEAD OF GLOBAL COMMODITIES RESEARCH AT GOLDMAN SACHS. AND DAN, JUST YOUR INITIAL THOUGHT ON WHETHER THIS WILL LOOSEN THINGS UP AT ALL, WHETHER IN THE PRODUCT MARKETS OR FOR CRUDE ITSELF. >> BY RELAXING.>> THE REQUIREMENT THAT THE SHIPS TRANSPORTING OIL AND GAS HAVE TO BE US SHIPS, YOU ...

Group 1 - The White House is seeking to address surging fuel prices through a meeting with the oil industry, including U.S. governors and bipartisan congressional leaders [1] - Vice President JD Vance indicated that additional measures to tackle rising fuel prices will be announced within 24 to 48 hours [2] - Diesel prices have exceeded $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022, with a 35% increase attributed to the Iran war, while gasoline prices have risen nearly 29% to an average of $3.84 per gallon [3] Group 2 - President Donald Trump has issued a two-month waiver of the Jones Act to potentially reduce transportation costs by allowing foreign vessels to transport oil and energy supplies within the U.S. [4] - The U.S. plans to release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a collaborative effort with over 30 nations to inject 400 million barrels into the market [5]

Vice President JD Vance and other key Trump administration officials plan to huddle with oil executives as the White House looks for ways to tame surging fuel prices after the US attack on Iran https://t.co/TYWo5mzksX ...

Core Insights - Wholesale prices surged by 0.7% in February, significantly higher than the expected 0.3%, with the producer price index (PPI) now at 3.4% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February 2024 [2] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, stands at 3.9%, while the Federal Reserve's target is 2% [2] - Services costs contributed significantly to inflation, with a 0.5% increase, complicating the narrative that tariffs are the primary cause of inflation [3] Industry Impacts - Portfolio management fees increased by 1% month-over-month, while securities brokerage and investment advice costs rose by 4.2% [3] - Goods prices saw a rise of 1.1%, with food prices increasing by 2.4%, and fresh and dry vegetables experiencing a dramatic 48.9% surge [3] - The oil market is under pressure, trading around $100 per barrel, up over 70% year-to-date, influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran [4] Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 200 points, and Treasury yields increased, indicating market apprehension [5] - Traders have adjusted their expectations for the next rate cut, pushing it to December, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates between 3.5% and 3.75% in the upcoming announcement [5] - The upcoming press conference by Fed Chair Jay Powell is anticipated to be particularly challenging given the current economic climate [5]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are showing cautious but positive momentum amid a critical Federal Reserve policy announcement, a significant regulatory breakthrough for the semiconductor industry, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting energy markets [1] - Major market indexes are experiencing modest gains, with the S&P 500 up approximately 0.3% to around 6,736, the Nasdaq Composite leading with a 0.4% gain to 22,479.53, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding about 140 points, or 0.3%, trading near 47,134 [2] Sector Performance - Market breadth is narrow, with technology and energy sectors outperforming, while consumer staples and healthcare are facing challenges [3] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near 22.3, indicating a state of "Extreme Fear" largely due to volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which are elevated near $95 per barrel [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate within the current range of 3.50% to 3.75% following its two-day policy meeting, with attention on the accompanying policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed a monthly increase of 0.7%, bringing core PPI to 3.9% year-over-year, complicating the Fed's path toward its 2% inflation target amid inflationary pressures and stabilizing employment signs [5] Corporate Headlines - Nvidia (NVDA) is a standout performer, with shares rising after Beijing approved the sale of its H200 AI chips in China, marking a pivotal shift for the company [6] - Nvidia also provided an outlook of $1 trillion in cumulative revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin AI architectures through 2027 during its GTC 2026 conference [6] - Apple (AAPL) is up 0.6%, launching the iPhone 17e and new M5-powered MacBooks, and acquiring MotionVFX to enhance its professional services suite [7] Earnings Reports - Micron Technology (MU) is the most anticipated earnings report of the day, with the stock having surged over 300% in the past year, as investors seek confirmation of continued high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortages driving record margins [8] - General Mills (GIS) reported a 15.7% rise in revenue to $143.76 billion, although it noted significant impacts from divestitures [8] Other Notable Movers - Western Digital (WDC) continues to gain momentum following a 9.6% jump, while Microsoft (MSFT) faces pressure from rising energy costs affecting its data center operations [9] - Tesla (TSLA) is under pressure, down roughly 11% year-to-date, as the automotive sector deals with shifting consumer sentiment [9] - In the airline sector, United Airlines (UAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) are closely monitoring fuel costs, while American Airlines (AAL) is underperforming after a significant earnings miss [9]

The White House says it is suspending the Jones Act. In a statement to CNBC just a couple of minutes ago, White House press secretary Caroline Levit had this to say. She said, "President Trump's decision to issue a 60-day Jones Act waiver is just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the US military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury." She says this action will allow vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertilizer and coal to flow freely to US ports ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy grew at a slow pace, with a GDP increase of 0.7% in Q4 2025, following a stronger growth of 4.4% in Q3 2025, resulting in an overall GDP growth of 2.1% for the year [6] - Inflation remains a significant concern, with the consumer price index rising by 2.4% in February, prior to the escalation of oil prices due to the conflict in Iran [7] Tax Refunds and Consumer Spending - The current tax season is expected to yield "gigantic" refunds due to special tax deductions included in recent legislation, which could potentially boost consumer spending [3] - However, rising gas prices and inflation may absorb much of the additional cash from tax refunds, particularly affecting lower-income families who rely on these refunds [4] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The ongoing conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, which began on February 28, is contributing to economic stress and could lead to a recession [5] - The increase in oil prices due to the conflict is expected to further strain consumer budgets, impacting spending behavior [4]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced a pullback due to rising oil prices and higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data, with Brent Oil surpassing $108 and WTI around $98 [2][3] - The PPI increased by 7%, with core PPI rising by 0.5%, not accounting for energy prices, indicating inflation risks are on the rise [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance during the upcoming meeting, with a focus on communication regarding inflation and economic projections [3][4] - The dot plots from the Fed will provide insights into expectations for inflation and GDP through the end of the year and into next year [5][6] Energy Sector Analysis - Energy is viewed as a key hedge in the current market environment, with investors encouraged to increase exposure to this sector due to its resilience [10][11] - Only utilities and energy sectors have over 50% of stocks above their 200-day moving averages, indicating strength amidst broader market volatility [12] Technology Sector Dynamics - The technology sector shows mixed performance, with notable strength in software and memory industries, particularly with Micron expected to report significant revenue growth [17][18] - Micron's anticipated revenue of $19.77 billion represents a 146% increase from the previous year, highlighting strong demand in the memory market [18][19] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be selective within the technology sector, moving beyond major tech stocks to identify pockets of strength [20][21] - The current market conditions favor stock pickers, allowing for potential gains in specific sectors despite overall market volatility [21][22]

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