Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is a leading home improvement retailer in the U.S., with upcoming third-quarter earnings release on November 18, 2025, and analysts are focused on its financial performance [1] Financial Performance - Analysts estimate Home Depot's earnings per share (EPS) to be around $3.81, with revenue projected at approximately $41.12 billion, reflecting a 2% growth in both revenue and earnings compared to the previous year [2][6] - In the previous quarter, Home Depot reported $45.3 billion in revenue, marking a 5% year-over-year increase, with a projected 1.3% increase in comparable store sales for Q3 [3] Market Trends - The company's stock has decreased by about 5% year-to-date and is 15% below its 52-week high, indicating recent market challenges [2][6] Management Guidance - Home Depot's management reaffirmed its full-year guidance, projecting about 2.8% sales growth and 1% comparable sales growth, with potential changes to this guidance impacting investor sentiment [4] Financial Metrics - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 24.57, indicating the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings [4] - Home Depot's debt-to-equity ratio is around 5.75, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing, while the current ratio stands at 1.15, indicating its ability to cover short-term liabilities [5][6]

Earnings Reports - This week features earnings reports from major companies including Nvidia (NVDA), Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Lowes (LOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Medtronic (MDT), and PDD Holdings (PDD) [1] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings announcements due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases back to normal levels [3] Expected Price Movements - The expected price range for stocks can be estimated by summing the prices of at-the-money put and call options, using the first expiry date after the earnings date [3] - Specific expected price movements for the week include: - TCOM – 6.2% - HD – 4.4% - PDD – 6.7% - MDT – 3.8% - BIDU – 7.8% - NVDA – 7.7% - PANW – 7.6% - LOW – 5.1% - TGT – 9.9% - WMT – 5.1% [4] Trading Strategies - Option traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades, with bearish traders selling bear call spreads and bullish traders selling bull put spreads or looking at naked puts [5] - Neutral traders may consider iron condors, ensuring short strikes remain outside the expected range [5] - It is advisable to use risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings [6] High Implied Volatility Stocks - A stock screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, using filters such as total call volume greater than 5,000, market cap greater than 40 billion, and IV rank greater than 50% [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Tech stocks are leading US stock futures higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% and S&P 500 futures rising approximately 0.6% as investors anticipate the upcoming jobs report [1] - The Nasdaq Composite experienced volatility and ended the previous week lower, with major tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta losing momentum [2] - The S&P 500 and Dow managed slight gains for the week, despite facing sharp pullbacks on Thursday [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Earnings Reports - The upcoming week will feature significant economic data releases, including the September jobs report, which is expected to provide insights into the US labor market [3] - Nvidia is set to release its earnings report on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated by investors, alongside reports from major retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and Gap [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has seen a significant decline of 30% from its record high of over $126,000 to below $94,000, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards a risk-off approach [5]

Group 1: Nvidia Earnings and Market Impact - Nvidia's earnings are seen as a critical event for assessing AI infrastructure investment and its ability to sustain current market valuations [1][2] - Key metrics to watch include data center revenue growth, demand for Hopper and Blackwell chips, and future AI accelerator sales guidance [1] - The performance of Nvidia's gaming and automotive segments will provide insights into business diversification beyond data centers [1] Group 2: Retail Earnings Insights - The week features significant retail earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, which will provide insights into consumer spending health as the holiday season approaches [2][3] - Home Depot's results will indicate trends in home improvement spending amid high mortgage rates [3] - Target's earnings will shed light on middle-income consumer health and discretionary spending patterns [3] - Walmart's results will offer insights into value-seeking behavior and grocery inflation trends [3] Group 3: Chinese Consumer and Technology Sector - Earnings from PDD and Baidu will provide insights into Chinese consumer behavior and the technology sector amid U.S.-China trade tensions [4] - PDD's results will highlight value-focused e-commerce demand and international expansion efforts [4] - Baidu's earnings will focus on search advertising, autonomous driving technology, and AI cloud services [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting minutes will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions and potential December rate cut decisions [5][6] - The delayed September jobs report may impact the analysis of labor market conditions [5] - Economic indicators such as the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and existing home sales will offer perspectives on economic activity [5][6] Group 5: Healthcare Technology and Cybersecurity - Medtronic's earnings will provide insights into medical device demand and hospital capital equipment spending [7] - Palo Alto Networks' results will be critical for understanding enterprise security spending and cloud security adoption [7] - Both companies operate in sectors that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations, making their results significant for assessing technology and healthcare investments [7]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 310 points, while the S&P 500 dipped by 0.05% and the Nasdaq gained 0.13%, indicating a complex market environment [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 9th and 10th is expected to influence market direction, with speculation around Fed officials' comments on inflation and unemployment [4][5] Company Earnings Reports - Home Depot's stock was downgraded from buy to hold due to anticipated weak business conditions linked to housing turnover and labor issues [7] - TJX, the parent company of TJ Maxx and Marshalls, is expected to report strong earnings, and investors are advised to buy on any dips [9] - Target is under scrutiny as it faces challenges with pricing in a high-inflation environment, and the company needs a solid plan to regain its market position [10][11] - Lowe's is performing better than Home Depot, appealing to both consumers and professional contractors [12] - Nvidia's earnings report is highly anticipated, as the company plays a crucial role in the AI and data center markets [14][15] - Walmart's CEO Doug McMillan is retiring, and the company is expected to report a strong quarter under his leadership [18][19] Investment Strategy - The current market sell-off presents buying opportunities for solvent companies, but investors should focus on upgrading from high-risk speculative stocks [23][27] - FedEx is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, with expectations for its stock to rise above $300 [26][27]

Core Insights - Analysts forecast Lowe's (LOW) will report quarterly earnings of $2.98 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [1] - Expected revenues are projected to be $20.86 billion, indicating a 3.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.1% over the past 30 days, showing analysts have reappraised their initial projections [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical research indicating a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics - Analysts estimate the total number of stores will reach 1,755, up from 1,747 in the same quarter last year [5] - The estimated total sales floor square footage is projected at 195.65 million, compared to 195.00 million in the same quarter last year [5] - Sales per store are expected to be $11.97 million, an increase from $11.55 million year-over-year [6] - The average store size selling square feet is estimated to be 111.72 thousand, slightly down from 112.00 thousand in the previous year [6] Stock Performance - Lowe's shares have decreased by 4.8% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1.4% [6] - With a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), Lowe's is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [6]

Core Insights - Home Depot Inc is set to release its third-quarter earnings report on November 18, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.82 per share, a 1.1% increase year-over-year, and revenue of $41.07 billion, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year growth [1] - The company is advancing its "One Home Depot" plan, which emphasizes supply-chain expansion, technology investments, and digital enhancements [1] Earnings History and Market Expectations - Home Depot has a generally positive post-earnings history, with five out of the last eight reports resulting in stock price increases, including a 3.2% rise in August [2] - The options market is anticipating a 6% next-day price swing following the earnings report, significantly higher than the average 1.8% movement over the past two years [2] Stock Performance - Home Depot's stock has been declining since mid-September, reaching a peak of $426.75, and was last trading at $368.26, marking a 0.8% decrease [3] - The stock is on track for its eighth weekly loss in the last nine weeks and has decreased by 5.5% since the beginning of the year [3] Options Activity - There has been increased bullish activity in options, with a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.32, indicating a higher level of call buying compared to puts, surpassing 98% of readings from the past year [4]

Core Insights - Home Depot, Inc. is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on November 18, with anticipated year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) [1][2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $41.1 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase from the previous year, while EPS is projected to be $3.82, indicating a 1.1% growth [1][2] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The company is projected to see a 2.1% increase in comparable sales, driven by higher-value purchases and steady demand from both professional and DIY customers [5][6] - The trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise for Home Depot is 1.3%, although the last reported quarter showed a negative surprise of 0.6% [2] Strategic Initiatives - Home Depot is advancing its "One Home Depot" strategy, focusing on supply-chain expansion, technology investments, and digital enhancements to improve customer experience [5][21] - The interconnected retail model is a key growth driver, enhancing the shopping experience and supporting a scalable Pro ecosystem [7][21] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Home Depot's shares have declined 7.3% over the past three months, which is better than the industry's 13.1% decline [13] - The stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of 23.21X, higher than the industry average of 21.14X, indicating a premium valuation [18] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges such as softened demand in high-ticket discretionary categories and macroeconomic pressures, including elevated interest rates affecting consumer behavior [8][9] - There is an expectation of continued pressure on big-ticket renovations due to high interest rates and limited housing turnover [9][11] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term headwinds, Home Depot's market leadership and operational discipline position it well for long-term value creation [23] - The company's integrated model and expanding Pro ecosystem are expected to enhance its competitive advantage in the home improvement sector [22][23] Conclusion - As Home Depot approaches its earnings release, the focus will be on its ability to meet expectations amid a mixed consumer backdrop, with strong indicators from its market leadership and strategic initiatives [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot is set to report its third-quarter earnings on November 18, with an anticipated update on strategic priorities and long-term outlook at the December Analyst Conference. Bank of America maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $450 [1][6]. Sales Performance - Bank of America projects a 1.3% increase in comparable sales for Home Depot in the third quarter of 2026, slightly above the previous quarter's 1.0% [2]. - Observed sales data from Bloomberg indicates a 1.6% rise, supporting the sales growth outlook [2]. - The company experienced strong sales trends in August, but these softened in October due to the comparison with last year's hurricane-related sales boost [3]. Financial Forecast - For the full year 2026, revenue is estimated at $163.91 billion and EPS at $14.95, aligning with consensus estimates. For fiscal 2027, revenue is projected to rise to $170.68 billion with EPS of $16.25 [7]. Strategic Initiatives - Home Depot's acquisition of Gypsum Management & Supply (GMS) for an implied enterprise value of $5.5 billion enhances its Pro capabilities, adding drywall, steel framing, and ceilings to its offerings [4]. - The bank highlights trade credit expansion and improved order management as key strategies to deepen penetration with approximately 9 million Pro customers [5]. Market Position - Home Depot is well-positioned amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, benefiting from structural housing-related tailwinds. Despite deferrals in large-ticket projects due to high mortgage rates, the company is expected to gain market share through expanded delivery and Pro-focused services [6].

Core Viewpoint - Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. is expected to capture a larger market share in 2026 as housing conditions improve and industry competition eases [1] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs upgraded Floor & Decor to Neutral from Sell, with a 12-month price forecast of $71, down from $80, citing expectations for a modestly improved U.S. housing backdrop in 2026 [2] - The bank noted that while housing turnover has not recovered since January, the backdrop appears steady and could strengthen as mortgage rates decline [3] Store Expansion and Performance - Management continues to open stores at a pace of 20 units per year, with flexibility to accelerate in 2026 if conditions improve [4] - New-store performance remains pressured, with average revenue at $11 million versus long-term targets, though improvement is expected as macro conditions normalize [9] Financial Projections - For 2025, management guided sales of $4.66-$4.71 billion, up 5%-6% year over year, with comparable store sales projected to decline by -2% to -1% [8] - Goldman forecasts revenue of $4.68 billion for 2025, $5.08 billion for 2026, and $5.68 billion for 2027, with EPS estimates of $1.87, $2.08, and $2.59 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] Market Share and Competitive Position - Floor & Decor is well positioned as smaller rivals struggle with tariffs and tighter economics, with expectations for market-share gains due to bankruptcies and store closures at competitors [5][8] - Competitive pricing analysis shows Floor & Decor maintains prices below industry averages across most comparable products [8] Margin Resilience - Margins remain resilient, supported by disciplined pricing, supply-chain savings, and higher-margin design services, with 2025 gross margin guidance at 43.6%-43.7% [11]