First though, some breaking housing data this morning. For that, we'll turn to Dom Chu. Morning, Dom. >> Morning, Carl. Good morning, Sarah.So, builder sentiment in the single family housing market rose five points to the level of 37 in October. That's the NAHB housing market index. The street was looking for just a one point gain there.Now, October's reading is the highest since April. The builders did site a slight drop in mortgage rates overall in early October and the actions by the Fed itself. NAHB cha ...

Core Insights - Confidence among US homebuilders increased significantly in October, marking the highest rise since early 2024, driven by lower mortgage rates that are improving affordability conditions [1][2] Group 1: Builder Sentiment - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's market conditions index rose by 5 points to 37 in October, the highest level since April, indicating that more builders are optimistic about market conditions [2] - Despite the increase in builder confidence, a value below 50 suggests that more builders still perceive conditions as poor rather than good [2] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Buyer Behavior - Recent declines in mortgage rates are seen as a positive development for affordability, yet the market remains challenging as many potential homebuyers are still hesitant and waiting for further decreases in mortgage rates [3][5] - Borrowing costs fell to a one-year low in September, leading to a modest increase in buyer demand, although builders like KB Home noted that their order volumes did not align with the significant drop in rates [4][5] Group 3: Construction and Sales Strategies - Builders are currently slowing their construction pace and employing price cuts and sales incentives to attract buyers, with 38% of builders reporting price reductions in October, consistent with previous months [5] - Additionally, 65% of builders are utilizing sales incentives, which remains unchanged from the prior month [5] Group 4: Regional Confidence Variations - Builder confidence has risen across the country, particularly in the Northeast and South, which are the largest homebuilding regions in the US, while gains in the West and Midwest have been more modest [6]

Confidence among US homebuilders rose this month by the most since early 2024, boosted by lower mortgage rates that are chipping away at the nation’s affordability problem https://t.co/V62HhpDxcU ...

Core Insights - D.R. Horton has announced the dates for the release of its financial results for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Company Information - The announcement pertains to the financial reporting schedule of D.R. Horton, indicating a structured approach to financial transparency and communication with stakeholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway continues to actively invest in stocks despite Warren Buffett's impending retirement, indicating confidence in the long-term potential of selected companies [1]. Group 1: Investment in Lennar - Berkshire Hathaway purchased 5.1 million shares of Lennar, investing a significant amount amid a volatile housing market [2]. - Lennar's stock price has fluctuated, dropping from over $180 to around $100, before recovering to approximately $120 as of mid-October [2]. - The company generated $35 billion in revenue over the past year, but net income decreased to $2.7 billion due to rising costs and falling home prices [3]. - Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway view Lennar as a potentially undervalued stock with growth prospects if interest rates decline, as indicated by its low P/E ratio of 12.7 [4]. Group 2: Investment in Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands, focused on Mexican beer, has seen its stock decline by 48% due to falling beer consumption in the U.S. and an 8.7% drop in beer shipments year-over-year [5][6]. - Despite the decline in alcohol consumption, Berkshire Hathaway perceives Constellation Brands as a discounted investment with long-term pricing power, trading at an enterprise value-to-EBIT of 11 [6]. - The company’s high-quality beer brands are gaining market share, suggesting potential for future shareholder returns [7]. Group 3: Investment in Chevron - Chevron, a major player in the oil and gas sector, is Berkshire Hathaway's fifth-largest holding, with its stock seen as a hedge against inflation [9]. - The company's performance is closely tied to oil prices, which have significantly dropped since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to a decrease in net income to $14 billion [10][11]. - Despite a P/E ratio of about 20, Chevron's shares offer a 4.5% dividend yield, with potential for earnings growth if oil prices rise [11][12].

The builders are once again constructing in the mid-stage luxury home development nearbyThinking the economy is gonna be just fine ...

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. has announced the grand opening of six new model homes at Metro Heights, a master-planned community in Montebello, California [1][2] Company Overview - Toll Brothers is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, founded in 1967 and became a public company in 1986 [8] - The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and the District of Columbia, serving various buyer segments including first-time, move-up, and active-adult buyers [9] New Development Details - The new model homes are part of the Skyview and Silverstone collections, featuring one- and two-story single-family homes with 3 to 7 bedrooms and 2.5 to 6 bathrooms, priced from $1.29 million [4] - Homes range from approximately 1,440 to over 3,250 square feet, designed with open floor plans, spacious kitchens, and luxurious primary suites [4] Community Features - Metro Heights includes a gated entry and resort-style amenities, such as a 10,000-square-foot recreation center with multiple pools, spas, and a state-of-the-art fitness center [6] - The community offers a 5-acre public park, four pocket parks, a scenic promenade, and six trails, enhancing the living experience for families [6][7] Customer Experience - Toll Brothers provides a one-stop shopping experience at the Toll Brothers Design Studio, allowing customers to personalize their homes with professional design consultants [5] - The community is located near top-rated schools and shopping areas, offering a balance of luxury and convenience without Mello Roos fees [7]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. announces the final opportunity to purchase a new home in the exclusive Newton townhome community in Jacksonville, Florida, with only one move-in ready home available for sale priced at $499,000 [1][2][5] Company Overview - Toll Brothers, Inc. is the nation's leading builder of luxury homes, founded in 1967 and publicly traded since 1986, listed on the NYSE under the symbol "TOL" [6] - The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and serves various buyer segments including first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers [6][7] - Toll Brothers has been recognized as one of Fortune magazine's World's Most Admired Companies for over 10 years and has received multiple awards including Builder of the Year [8] Community Features - The Newton community offers a two-story great room, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and an oversized backyard with lawn maintenance included in the homeowner's association [2] - Residents have access to the Recharge amenity center featuring a resort-style zero-entry pool, fitness center, outdoor yoga lawn, rooftop patio, playground, event lawn, and dog park [4] - The community is conveniently located near major highways, schools, and medical centers, enhancing its appeal to potential buyers [4]

Core Viewpoint - LGI Homes is currently in the final phase of its Adhishthana Cycle, specifically Phase 18, which is expected to be sluggish and range-bound due to weak bullish momentum in previous phases [1][5]. Summary by Sections Adhishthana Cycle and Triads - LGI Homes is in the 18th phase of its Adhishthana Cycle, with Phases 14, 15, and 16 forming the Guna Triads that are crucial for achieving a Nirvana move in Phase 18 [1][2]. - The stock entered its triads in November 2023, but the phases did not exhibit significant bullish momentum, indicating a lack of Satoguna necessary for a Nirvana move [2][4]. Performance Analysis - From the peak of Phase 14 to the end of Phase 16, LGI Homes' stock price declined by nearly 50%, reflecting weak Satoguna presence and selling pressure [4]. - The overall behavior of the stock during these phases was characterized by range-bound trading rather than a sustained bullish rally [4]. Investor Outlook - The outlook for LGI Homes remains sluggish, with expectations of underperformance through Phase 18, which concludes in March 2027 [5]. - While short-term rallies may occur, they are unlikely to be sustainable, suggesting that investors should wait for the completion of the current Adhishthana cycle before considering new long positions [5].

Decline in housebuilders risks derailing government aims, veterinary industry faces a major overhaul and Trump's Aberdeen golf course makes yet another loss -- get briefed ahead of your morning calls with The London Rush https://t.co/abtp6vYpWT ...