Core Viewpoint - Guangkang Biochemical has seen a significant stock price increase of 68% over five trading days, attributed to the rising trend in innovative drug concept stocks, leading to major shareholders planning to reduce their holdings [2][3][4]. Shareholder Reduction Plans - Major shareholders, including Qiongcheng Ruihong Kaiyin No. 1 Equity Investment Fund, plan to reduce their holdings by up to 222,000 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, within three months after the announcement [3][4]. - Additional shareholders collectively holding 355,000 shares, accounting for 4.7973% of the total share capital, are also involved in the reduction [3][4]. Company Overview - Guangkang Biochemical specializes in the research, production, and sales of pesticide raw materials, intermediates, and formulations, established in 2003, and is a significant player in Guangdong Province [4]. - The company went public on the ChiNext board on June 27, 2023, and this reduction marks the first instance of shareholder selling post-IPO lock-up expiration [4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Guangkang Biochemical's revenue declined by 25%, with net profit and non-recurring net profit dropping by 68% and 73%, respectively [6]. - Although revenue showed recovery in 2024, non-recurring net profit continued to decline by 11.45% [6]. - In Q1 2025, both net profit and non-recurring net profit fell by approximately 3% and 9.6%, respectively [6]. Shareholding and Pledge Situation - The major shareholder and actual controller, Cai Danqun, is unable to reduce shares due to a 36-month lock-up period but has pledged shares for financing, with the pledge subject to high-interest rates from guarantee companies [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in phosphate rock (10.00%) and glyphosate (6.79%), while products like butadiene and aniline saw substantial declines [3][4]. - It suggests focusing on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities in the current market environment [5][21]. - The international oil prices are stabilizing, with WTI at $60.79 per barrel and Brent at $63.90 per barrel, indicating a projected average of $70 for 2025 [5][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Tracking - International oil prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with market assessments indicating a stable supply outlook [22]. - The domestic propane market experienced a decline after an initial stabilization, with average prices at 4988 CNY/ton [25]. - The domestic coal market showed mixed price movements, averaging 532 CNY/ton, with expectations of increased demand as summer approaches [26]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were noted in phosphate rock and glyphosate, while butadiene and aniline experienced notable declines [19]. - The report indicates a weak overall performance in the chemical industry, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in sectors benefiting from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings [21]. - It also highlights the resilience of the tire industry, suggesting companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire as potential investment targets [21]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality assets with strong dividend yields, particularly in the oil sector, including Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [21].

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with 82 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating a bullish sentiment [2] - The current market shows a divergence between large-cap indices and small-cap indices, suggesting that existing funds are actively trading while new capital remains cautious [2][3] - Key sectors identified for potential investment this week include digital currency, pharmaceuticals, and agrochemicals, which are expected to show sustained performance [3] Group 2 - The digital currency sector is closely linked to cross-border payments, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The pharmaceutical sector has significant ties to chemical manufacturing, suggesting ongoing relevance and investment opportunities [3] - The agrochemical sector is experiencing a resurgence, highlighting its importance in the current market landscape [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the refrigerant sector, recommending attention to companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. due to expected demand growth and price increases in refrigerants [5]. Core Insights - The refrigerant market is entering a demand peak season, with prices and margins for major refrigerant types on the rise. The report highlights the impact of high summer temperatures and supply constraints due to quota policies [5][25]. - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has raised concerns in the pesticide industry, potentially affecting supply and prices of intermediates like K amine, while stricter regulations may benefit leading companies with better safety and management practices [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Notable price increases were observed in formic acid (6.52%), dichloromethane (4.36%), and acrylamide (4.55%), while TMA and dichloromethane saw significant declines [13][18]. 2. Polyurethane - MDI prices decreased while TDI prices increased due to seasonal demand fluctuations and maintenance schedules at several production facilities [16]. 3. Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices rose slightly to 23,397 CNY/ton, supported by strong demand and reduced supply from some factories [18]. 4. Fluorinated Chemicals - Prices for third-generation refrigerants R32 and R134a increased, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints. R32 is priced at 51,000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 48,500 CNY/ton [25][32]. 5. Phosphate Fertilizers - Prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate remained stable, with production pressures and inventory levels being closely monitored [20][21]. 6. Urea and Potassium Chloride - Urea prices decreased to 1,863 CNY/ton due to market adjustments and reduced export volumes, while potassium chloride prices remained stable at 2,956 CNY/ton [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report provides a standard investment rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating a cautious outlook due to recent market fluctuations and supply chain disruptions [1]. Core Insights - Japan's Mitsui Chemicals is exiting the NF3 business, which may enhance China's competitiveness in electronic specialty gases, with potential market share expansion [4][10]. - The chlorantraniliprole incident has caused supply disruptions, potentially boosting the market for pesticides and intermediates, with a shift towards high-efficiency, low-toxicity products [4][12]. - The report suggests focusing on key sub-sectors such as integrated refining and petrochemical chains, refrigerant industry leaders, and domestic alternative materials [4][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - Mitsui Chemicals' exit from the NF3 business is attributed to rising competition and costs, indicating that Chinese manufacturers may fill the gap and increase exports [10][11]. - The chlorantraniliprole incident is expected to accelerate market consolidation, benefiting companies with technological advantages and regulatory compliance [12][13]. 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - For the week of May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while the Shenwan Petroleum and Petrochemical Index rose by 0.40%, outperforming the market by 1.48 percentage points [15][18]. - The basic chemical index decreased by 0.66%, ranking 23rd among all Shenwan primary industries [15][18]. 3. Key Product Price and Spread Performance - Notable price increases included potassium chloride (up 5.66%) and paraxylene (up 4.94%), while hydrochloric acid saw a significant drop of 28.00% [27][28]. - The price spread for carbon black increased by 31.13%, indicating a tightening supply situation [29][30].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月03日 [table_invest] 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张晶磊S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 联系人 花雨欣 [Table_NewTitle 供给端扰动背景下，关注相关化工板块 ] 配置机会 ——基础化工行业周报（2025/05/26-2025/06/01） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 本周重点新闻跟踪 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -20% -10% -1% 9% 18% 28% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.日本 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the refrigerant sector, recommending attention to companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. due to expected demand growth and price increases in refrigerants [5]. Core Insights - The refrigerant market is entering a demand peak season, with prices and margins for major refrigerant types on the rise. The report highlights the impact of high summer temperatures and supply constraints due to quota policies [5][25]. - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has raised concerns in the pesticide industry, potentially affecting supply and prices of intermediates like K-amine, while stricter regulations may benefit leading companies with better safety and management practices [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Notable price increases were observed in formic acid (6.52%), dichloromethane (4.36%), and acrylamide (4.55%), while TMA saw a significant decrease of 14.29% [13]. 2. Polyurethane - MDI prices decreased while TDI prices increased due to seasonal demand fluctuations and maintenance schedules at several production facilities [16]. 3. Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices rose slightly to 23,397 CNY/ton, supported by strong demand and reduced supply from some factories [18]. 4. Fluorinated Chemicals - Prices for R32 and R134a refrigerants increased, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints. R32 is priced at 51,000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 48,500 CNY/ton [25][32]. 5. Phosphate Fertilizers - Prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate remained stable, with production pressures from high raw material costs [20][21]. 6. Urea and Potassium Chloride - Urea prices decreased to 1,863 CNY/ton due to changes in export policies and market dynamics, while potassium chloride prices remained stable at 2,956 CNY/ton [24].

Core Viewpoint - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has led to a significant market reaction, with related companies' stock prices surging and the pesticide sector experiencing a notable increase in value [1] Industry Overview - Chlorantraniliprole is a highly effective, broad-spectrum, low-toxicity insecticide widely used in various crops, and it has become the largest-selling insecticide globally since its launch in 2008 [2] - The domestic production capacity of chlorantraniliprole is approximately 200,000 tons per year, but the actual production last year was less than 6,000 tons, indicating a significant oversupply in the long term [2] - The price of chlorantraniliprole has increased from 210,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 250,000 yuan per ton following the explosion, reflecting a 10% increase [2] Company Insights - Youdao Chemical, established in August 2019, is a subsidiary of Haomai Group and is the largest producer of chlorantraniliprole with an annual capacity of 11,000 tons [1] - Hongyang currently has a production capacity of 2,000 tons per year for chlorantraniliprole, with an additional 1,000 tons expected to be completed by September [3] - Lier Chemical is optimistic about the market prospects for chlorantraniliprole and is currently constructing a 5,000-ton production facility [3] - The production of chlorantraniliprole is highly dependent on intermediates, and the shutdown of Youdao Chemical may lead to supply tightness for these intermediates, impacting downstream formulation companies [4]

宏观与策略 宏观快评:5 月 PMI 数据解读-关税影响暂时缓解，消费性服务业展现韧 性 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数走平 宏观周报:宏观经济宏观周报-高频增长指标偏弱，出口链和食品价格回 升 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-05-30 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3347.48 | 10040.62 | 3840.23 | 11333.10 | 2792.50 | 977.02 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.47 | -0.85 | -0.47 | -1.02 | -1.30 | -0.94 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4433.58 | 6958.19 | 1993.89 | 2590.47 | 3210.41 | 176.32 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\co ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the agricultural chemicals sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., while recommending "Hold" for others like Haier and Guangxin Co. [20] Core Insights - The recent explosion incident has tightened the supply-demand dynamics for K-amine and other intermediates, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the pesticide industry and potentially drive up nitrocellulose prices [5][12] - The agricultural chemicals sector is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventories being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures remain [5][12] - The report highlights the potential for stricter safety and environmental regulations following the recent incidents, which could further enhance the agricultural chemicals industry's cyclical recovery [5][12] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term [6] - The chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with April's chemical industry PPI showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [8] - The report notes that the recent explosion at a chemical facility has led to increased prices for K-amine and related products, with recommendations to focus on companies like Hongyang and Lier Chemical [5][12] Chemical Product Prices and Trends - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a stable price for urea at 1830 RMB/ton and fluctuations in pesticide prices, with some herbicides seeing price increases [12][22] - The report indicates that the price of nitrocellulose has risen significantly, with export prices increasing from 2.06 USD/kg in October 2021 to 4.75 USD/kg in April 2025 [5][12] Company Recommendations - Specific companies are highlighted for investment based on their market positions and growth potential, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and others in the agricultural chemicals sector [20] - The report suggests monitoring companies with mature nitrochemical processes, such as Yangnong Chemical and Guangxin Co., due to expected regulatory changes [5][12]