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贵金属数据日报-20251211
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.26% to 956.4 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 5.44% to 14,737 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Gold prices are maintaining high - level fluctuations as the market has fully priced in interest - rate cuts and there is uncertainty about the future path. Silver has risen significantly again due to the resonance of its "macro - industrial" dual attributes under the uncertain supply tightness. Both London spot silver and Shanghai silver futures have reached new historical highs [5]. - In the future, gold prices will remain high, and silver will show strong resilience due to the imbalance in supply - demand structure and overseas delivery risks. However, investors should be cautious of short - term sharp fluctuations in the silver market and control their positions [5]. - In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's ongoing interest - rate cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, increased great - power competition, and continued central - bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices. Long - term investors are recommended to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Gold and Silver Prices on December 10, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4,206.15/ounce, London silver spot at $61.34/ounce, COMEX gold at $4,234.20/ounce, COMEX silver at $61.88/ounce, AU2602 at 956.4 yuan/gram, AG2602 at 14,373 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) at 951.2 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 14,351 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 9, 2025, the price increases were 0.6%, 5.8%, 0.6%, 6.0%, 0.5%, 5.6%, 0.5%, and 5.5% respectively [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios on December 10, 2025**: The gold ID - SHFE active price spread was - 5.2 yuan/gram, the silver ID - SHFE active price spread was - 22 yuan/kilogram, the gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) spread was - 5.60 yuan/gram, the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) spread was - 1,254 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 66.54, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 68.43, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.06 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 1 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 9, 2025, the changes were 8.1%, 340.0%, 22.6%, 8.7%, - 4.8%, - 5.0%, - 9.6%, and - 150.0% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **On December 9, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1,047.97 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15,973.1589 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256,572 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 54,265 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 202,307 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 54,166 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20,945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 33,221 contracts. Compared with December 8, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.53%, - 3.66%, - 11.97%, - 1.15%, - 3.20%, 11.17%, and - 10.50% respectively [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **On December 10, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 91,299 kilograms (unchanged from December 9, 2025), SHFE silver inventory was 741,845 kilograms (up 3.35% from December 9, 2025). On December 9, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 36,099,219 fine ounces (down 0.31% from December 8, 2025), and COMEX silver inventory was 455,821,771 fine ounces (down 0.07% from December 8, 2025) [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - **On December 10, 2025**: The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.61%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, NYMEX crude oil was 16.93, the US dollar index was 99.24, VIX was 58.39, the S&P 500 was 6,840.51, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08. Compared with December 9, 2025, the changes were 0.24%, 1.62%, - 0.09%, 1.12%, 0.14%, - 0.78%, and - 0.03% respectively [4].
Asia Morning Briefing: Fed Cut Brings Little Volatility as Bitcoin Waits for Japan
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-11 02:17
Market Overview - Bitcoin is trading above $91,000 following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting elevated uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook [1] - Exchange inflows have sharply decreased from November highs, with whales reducing deposits, which has lessened near-term sell pressure and allowed the market to stabilize [2] - Whales have realized losses exceeding $600 million when Bitcoin fell below $100,000, with cumulative losses estimated at $3.2 billion, indicating a potential exhaustion of selling pressure [3] Current Market Conditions - Bitcoin has remained around $92,000 despite macroeconomic catalysts, with QCP noting that the market is in a holding pattern and ETF inflows have only improved modestly [4] - Attention is shifting to Japan, where a 25 basis point hike is expected at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, which could influence global risk appetite [5] - Bitcoin's price has shown little volatility, moving between $91,000 and $92,000, while Ether has remained near $3,270 without a clear breakout catalyst [6] Regional Market Movements - Most Asia Pacific markets have moved higher following the Fed's rate cut, although Japan's Nikkei 225 initially opened strong before slipping by 0.11 percent [7]
Gold Gains as Fed Delivers Expected Cut With Less Hawkish Tilt
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-10 21:12
Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged, breaking above $60 an ounce for the first time, driven by supply tightness and expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Silver rose to a record of $61.6145 an ounce, marking a 1.6% increase, supported by speculation that the US central bank will reduce rates by a quarter-point at its upcoming meeting [2]. - The price of silver has more than doubled this year, significantly outpacing gold's 60% increase, with a notable rally following a historic supply squeeze in October [4]. - Despite easing supply constraints, borrowing rates remain high, indicating ongoing tightness in the market [4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - There has been a significant inflow into silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with the highest weekly inflow since July, indicating strong investor interest [5]. - The market sentiment is currently very positive, with discussions about potential prices reaching $100 per ounce, despite some analysts suggesting that prices may be overvalued by about 15% [6][7]. - The presence of retail and speculative investors has contributed to the momentum in silver prices, as noted by market analysts [3].
Gold among the few commodity opportunities in 2026, price could reach $4,700/oz – Wells Fargo
KITCO· 2025-12-10 20:29
Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...
Silver's record break above $60 shows how central the metal has become to the AI build-out
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-10 13:11
Core Insights - Silver prices have surged past $60 per troy ounce, driven by increasing demand linked to AI infrastructure development [1][5] - The metal has more than doubled in value in 2025, significantly outperforming gold, which has seen a 60% increase [1] - The growing importance of silver in the AI economy is highlighted by its use in next-generation chips and digital applications [2][3] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand for silver is being fueled by the rapid expansion of AI data centers and the rising need for silver-rich chips like GPUs and TPUs [1][2] - Industrial demand and supply tightness are contributing to silver's price gains, with inventories under strain [2][6] - The Silver Institute and Oxford Economics report that AI's growth is driving increased silver demand across various digital economy applications [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The silver market is characterized by tight supply conditions, with high borrowing rates and falling stocks [6] - Retail traders are becoming increasingly aware of silver's price surge, indicating a shift in market interest [6] - The overall electronics ecosystem, including autonomous vehicles and robotics, is expected to further increase reliance on silver-rich components [4]
Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: Big Bitcoin Bull Blinks
Seeking Alpha· 2025-12-10 12:58
Bitcoin Market Insights - Standard Chartered has revised its bitcoin price forecasts, reducing the 2025 target from $200K to $100K, 2026 from $300K to $150K, and 2027 from $400K to $225K, while pushing the long-term target of $500K to 2030 [4] - The recent price action has been challenging, with bitcoin's run since 2024 driven by ETF inflows and aggressive buying by digital-asset treasury companies, which are now trading below the value of the crypto they hold [5] - Bernstein describes bitcoin as being in an "elongated bull cycle," with institutional demand absorbing retail selling pressure, despite a 30% correction and less than 5% outflows from ETFs [6] Nvidia Developments - Nvidia has developed a location-verification feature for its GPUs to prevent smuggling into restricted markets, which is currently in private demo and not yet released [7][8] - The new software service will allow data center operators to monitor the health and inventory of their AI GPU fleet, utilizing GPU telemetry for fleet management [10] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has more than doubled in 2025, surpassing $60/oz, attributed to a combination of monetary, structural, and physical-market forces, with tight supply and strong industrial demand [11] - Saxo Bank highlights that miners are struggling to meet demand driven by electrification, solar, EVs, and data-center growth, although a slowdown in AI-related capital expenditures could impact demand [12] - The gold-silver ratio is around 68, indicating that silver is no longer as undervalued as it was earlier in the year when the ratio topped 105 [12]
OTC Markets Group Welcomes Vizsla Royalties Corp. to OTCQX
Globenewswire· 2025-12-10 12:00
Core Insights - Vizsla Royalties Corp. has qualified to trade on the OTCQX® Best Market, upgrading from the OTCQB® Venture Market, which signifies an important milestone for the company [1][3] - The company will begin trading under the symbol "VROYF" on the OTCQX Market, providing U.S. investors with access to its financial disclosures and real-time quotes [2][3] - The OTCQX Market is designed for established companies that meet high financial standards and corporate governance practices, enhancing visibility among U.S. investors [3] Company Overview - Vizsla Royalties Corp. is focused on precious metals and holds a Net Smelter Royalty on Vizsla Silver Corp.'s flagship Panuco Project located in Mexico [4] OTC Markets Group Overview - OTC Markets Group Inc. operates regulated markets for trading 12,000 U.S. and international securities, providing a data-driven disclosure standard for public markets [5]
NCE外汇:政策驱动下贵金属结构性强势逻辑
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 11:29
Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing a moderate upward trend as investors position themselves ahead of key policy meetings, with expectations around monetary policy direction being the main driver of gold and silver volatility [3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a strong consensus among investors regarding an imminent moderate policy adjustment, with the probability of interest rate cuts elevated to a highly consistent range [4] - This near-certain expectation allows precious metals to react in advance of the actual announcement, while the market retains some observation space regarding the policy pace into 2025, particularly under a "gentle but cautious" communication backdrop [4] Group 2: Institutional Accumulation - Central banks worldwide are steadily increasing their gold reserves, providing deeper structural support to the market, alongside positive inflows into precious metal ETFs, reflecting stable demand for diversification and hedging [5] - This trend is closely linked to the long-term uncertainty of the global monetary environment, forming a substantial bottom support structure for gold prices [5] Group 3: Employment Data Resilience - Labor market indicators show "moderate fluctuations but overall stability," with job vacancies remaining high and layoffs not altering the fundamental resilience of the labor market [6] - This data structure offers policymakers ample flexibility, allowing for a gradual approach to easing without the need for aggressive or urgent policy changes [6] Group 4: Diverging Views on Future Momentum - Despite strong performance in precious metals, some analysts express caution regarding sustained momentum, suggesting that if the pace of easing slows next year, the market may reassess the short-term upside potential for precious metals [7] - The derivatives market has adjusted its forecasts for the number of rate cuts in the coming year, indicating a search for balance between inflation resilience and economic strength [7] Group 5: Structural Strength of Precious Metals - The rise in precious metals is driven by multiple structural factors: stable expectations for policy easing, long-term demand from official institutions, and the healthy performance of the labor market providing policy flexibility [8] - As long as policy communication does not significantly deviate from core market expectations, the overall trend for precious metals is likely to remain strong, with short-term fluctuations stemming from natural corrections of expectation differences [8]
从“被遗忘资产”到核心机遇,Wmax 解读白银的翻倍潜力的可能性
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 10:29
Wmax对全球白银实物枢纽库存保持高频监测,其中中国市场库存变化堪称核心风向标。2025年中国白银出口创历史纪录后,上海黄金交易所与上海期货交 易所可追踪库存已跌至十年低位。作为全球白银核心流转枢纽,中国库存的大幅下滑迅速传导至全球市场——而这一变化,恰好发生在白银市场连续第五年 结构性短缺的关键阶段。当前地上白银库存持续消耗,COMEX白银库存同步降至多年低位,且Wmax通过全球主要银矿产能摸排确认,多数新产能释放窗 口需推迟至2027-2028年之后。据此Wmax判断,白银供应紧张并非短期脉冲,而是未来数年的常态基线。 Wmax通过对高景气产业用银场景的实地调研与数据核验,测算得出2025年光伏行业白银消耗量达1.957亿盎司,刷新历史峰值;叠加电动汽车、高效半导 体、5G基站及人工智能数据中心的庞大电力配套需求,白银已成为少数需求曲线逐年陡峭化的工业金属。更关键的是,Wmax产业端验证确认,白银在上述 高附加值领域暂无有效替代品——任何替代尝试要么以失败告终,要么导致终端产品性能显著折损。在Wmax供需平衡模型中,"需求持续攀升+供应物理性 瓶颈"的格局,正是资产价格获得长期结构性支撑的核心逻辑。 作为 ...