2025 年 03 月 16 日 上期推荐三个行业涨幅前五，继续关注资金流长 短景气和反转 —行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 上周推荐的食品饮料、有色金属、纺织服装涨幅居全行业 前 5。 行业因子上周最大特征单一大类因子解释力度不佳，因为 单大类因子选择的部分行业跌幅过深。本周高低切换明 显，反转类因子有效，复合因子层面短期景气预期有效性 显著。因子多头短期预期营收调升比例均值同比上周表现 最好。主力资金因子未能排入前列但多头超额继续创下新 高。 整体看行业轮动因子描述市场开始积极定价一季报，资金 高切低时有分歧，分歧可能源自博弈上周政策，最终博弈 结果来看消费>顺周期>地产链。景气预期层面继续关注长 短预期。我们推荐长期景气 30%、短期景气 20%权重突出 多头选择，给主力资金 30%权重，长端反转因子 20%来筛 选当前政策刺激下的受益板块。 月频流动性角度三月最强势的复合因子是短周期预期和部 分财报质量因子。选择的是消费中的食品饮料和社服、军 工和顺周期中的钢铁、有色，以及纺织服装。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资主力资金因子为代表的资金流 （30%）、细分因 ...

Market Performance - The CSI 2000 index performed well today, while the SSE 50 index fell by 0.49% and the CSI 300 index fell by 0.36%. The CSI 500 index decreased by 0.07%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.23% [5] - Among sector indices, the media, comprehensive finance, telecommunications, computer, and construction industries performed well, with returns of 1.84%, 1.33%, 1.11%, 0.69%, and 0.55% respectively. In contrast, the home appliance, coal, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and pharmaceutical industries performed poorly, with returns of -0.83%, -0.80%, -0.78%, -0.76%, and -0.64% respectively [6] - Concept themes such as China Broadcasting, broadcasting systems, three-network integration, jewelry, and IPV6 performed well, with returns of 7.70%, 6.00%, 4.12%, 4.03%, and 3.75% respectively. Conversely, PTA, cross-strait integration, COVID-19 antigen testing, excavators, and industrial gases performed poorly, with returns of -1.46%, -1.38%, -1.37%, -1.36%, and -1.31% respectively [7] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was high today, with 94 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 3 stocks hitting the limit down. The highest number of limit up stocks during the day was 102, while the highest number of limit down stocks was 4 [9] - Stocks that were limit up yesterday had a closing return of 2.47% today, while those that were limit down yesterday had a closing return of 1.87% today [10] - The sealing rate was 63%, a decrease of 14% from the previous day, while the consecutive sealing rate was 32%, an increase of 11% from the previous day, marking a new high for the past month [11] Market Capital Flow - As of March 11, 2025, the margin trading balance was 1,922.7 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1,910.7 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 12 billion yuan. The margin trading balance accounted for 2.4% of the circulating market value, and margin trading accounted for 9.7% of the market turnover [12][13] Premium and Discount - On March 11, 2025, the ETF with the highest premium was the Bank ETF Preferred, with a premium of 0.99%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Technology ETF, with a discount of 1.20% [16] - The average daily transaction amount of block trades over the past six months reached 1.5 billion yuan, with a transaction amount of 1.3 billion yuan on March 11, 2025. The average discount rate over the past six months was 5.20%, while the discount rate on that day was 4.35% [17] - The annualized premium rate for the main contract of the SSE 50 index futures was 1.32% on March 12, 2025, at the 58th percentile for the past year. The annualized discount rates for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures were 3.67%, 12.71%, and 28.92%, respectively, at the 34th, 11th, and 3rd percentiles for the past year [18] Institutional Attention and Rankings - The stocks with the most institutional research in the past week included Henghui Security, Chip Source Micro, Xiamen Tungsten, and others, with Henghui Security being researched by 147 institutions [19] - The stocks with the highest net inflow from institutional special seats on March 12, 2025, included Meili Technology, Bafang Co., and others, while those with the highest net outflow included Suotong Development, Yunding Technology, and others [20][22]

贾东旭 2024年税收增速低于名义GDP增速7.6个百分点，成为财政扩张的制约因素。在2025年财政"更加积极"的 基调下，税收增长能否逆转颓势？本文分析，可供参考。 一问：税收和GDP的增长有何规律？税收对名义GDP的弹性系数约为2 从历史数据观测，税收增速与名义GDP增速存在非对称波动特征。 当名义GDP增速处于5%基准值时，税 收增速通常围绕零值波动；GDP增速每偏离基准1个百分点，税收增速波幅可达2个百分点，呈现约2:1的 弹性特征。特殊政策调整期该规律可能失效。 长期而言，税收弹性主要源自所得税机制。 一方面，企业成本具有黏性特征，利润波动幅度大于营收变 化，这种波动通过企业所得税放大；另一方面，个人所得税采用超额累进税率，居民收入增长会触发税 率跳档，产生"档次爬升"效应，致使个税增速超越居民收入增速。这两大传导机制共同构成税收弹性的 制度基础。 以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯 倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 需要特别注意，2024年税收收入下降主因并非所得税，而 ...

一、财务造假的常见手段 IPO财务造假的核心目标是通过虚构交易或会计操纵使企业满足上市条件或提高估值。主要手段包括： 1、虚构收入 通过空壳公司、关联方或真实客户伪造交易合同、出库单、发票等，虚增收入。例如，绿大地通过员工亲属注册空壳公司伪造销售记录。 文/梧桐小新 IPO财务造假一直是市场高度关注的问题，为了深入了解IPO财务造假，我们向DeepSeek提出了两个关键问题： 如何识别IPO财务造假？从现金流净额的特征，能 反映出财务造假吗？ 本文对DeepSeek的回答进行整理，从财务造假常见手段、识别方法、现金流异常等多个维度，系统性地揭示IPO财务造假的核心特征与识别 方法。 识别IPO财务造假需要结合财务数据与非财务指标的综合分析，重点关注企业财务数据的合理性、现金流匹配度、交易真实性以及行业特征等。以下是基于公开案 例及监管经验的系统性总结： 利用阴阳合同虚增金额，如公开合同金额1亿元，实际仅5000万元交易，虚增收入5000万元。 海外客户造假，伪造合同或虚增价格，利用跨境核查难度掩盖虚假交易。 2、提前或延后确认收入 在未完成履约义务时提前确认收入（如房地产企业滥用完工百分比法）。 通过隐瞒退货 ...