离岛免税购物是海南旅游消费的"金字招牌"，2024年海关共监管海南离岛免税购物金额低于2023年。报 告分析，2024年出境消费全面恢复，部分高端消费者重新回流至境外购物，叠加国货崛起对部分国际品 牌销售的分流，是市场承压原因。 不过报告认为，尽管增长出现波动，但2024年海南离岛免税销售第一季度和第四季度环比分别录得 44.6%和24.9%的增长，显示市场仍具活力。今年随着封关临近，预计政府将进一步出台扶持政策，推 动行业向好发展。(完) 中新社海口4月13日电 (记者王子谦)第五届中国国际消费品博览会13日在海口开幕，毕马威中国与穆迪 达维特报告在展会上联合发布《海南自贸港旅游零售白皮书2025版》。报告预计，海南自贸港封关运作 后，短期内将形成免税零售与有税零售并轨共存的格局，长期将逐步推行"落地免税"政策。 今年是海南自贸港的封关运作之年。报告预计，未来在"简税制"平稳过渡的背景下，海南在进口消费品 的税制安排方面更具有独特优势。预计海南的旅游零售市场在短期内形成免税(离岛免税、岛民免税、 离境退税等)+有税(传统线上线下有税、回头购、跨境电商O2O新试点等)共存格局，长期将逐步推行"落 地免税"政策 ...

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. (China Duty Free) experienced a significant stock decline of 3.22% on April 11 [1] - The company was established in 2008 and is primarily engaged in business services, with a registered capital of approximately 20.69 billion RMB [1] - In the fourth quarter of the previous year, Invesco Great Wall Fund's Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A reduced its holdings in China Duty Free [1] Group 2 - The fund manager of Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A is Liu Yanchun, who has a Master's degree in Management and extensive experience in the investment sector [2][3] - Liu Yanchun has been with Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd. since January 2015 and currently serves as the assistant general manager and head of the research department [2][3] - The fund has a year-to-date return of 1.09%, ranking 1158 out of 4559 in its category [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group's stock price has experienced significant short-term volatility, with a cumulative deviation of over 20% in closing prices over three consecutive trading days [1] Company Summary - The company's main business and fundamentals have not undergone any significant changes [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of trading risks in the secondary market and to make rational decisions [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [1] Core Viewpoints - The announcement by the State Taxation Administration on April 8 promotes the "immediate purchase and refund" service for outbound tourists, expanding it from pilot cities to nationwide implementation [2][3] - The "immediate purchase and refund" policy aims to enhance the shopping experience for foreign tourists by allowing them to receive tax refunds at the point of sale, potentially increasing their shopping willingness and expenditure [3] - The policy is expected to significantly improve the convenience of tax refunds for foreign tourists, thereby boosting their consumption in China [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Event Overview - The "immediate purchase and refund" service measures have been clearly defined and are set to be implemented nationwide, enhancing the shopping experience for foreign tourists [2] Analysis and Judgment - The policy allows for tax refunds to be processed at the time of purchase, making it more appealing for tourists to shop [3] - In Beijing, the sales of tax refund goods exceeded 900 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with an average spending of approximately 230 yuan per tourist [4] - The implementation of this policy has shown significant positive effects in pilot cities, leading to substantial growth in sales and tax refunds [4] Investment Recommendations - The "immediate purchase and refund" policy is expected to drive growth in inbound shopping consumption, benefiting traditional department stores, duty-free retailers, and the tourism hotel industry [8] - Key beneficiaries include companies like China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, Yonghui Supermarket, and others involved in retail and tourism [8] - The rise of domestic brands and their increasing recognition among global consumers presents additional investment opportunities [8]

智通财经APP获悉，港股今日低开高走，三大指数午后强势拉红，恒科指数一度涨超3%。南向资金持 续加码托举大市，全日净买额超355亿港元，创历史最高单日净买入纪录。截止收盘，恒生指数涨 0.68%或136.81点，报20264.49点，全日成交额4123.85亿港元；恒生国企指数涨1.41%，报7535.68点； 恒生科技指数涨2.64%，报4689.19点。 银河证券指出，中长期来看，港股市场配置价值较高的三大主线分别是：第一，在国内扩内需、稳消费 等政策刺激下，消费行业业绩有望继续改善，从而促进当前估值水平处于历史中低水平的消费股上涨。 第二，科技政策支持与产业趋势将迎来共振，相关公司业绩改善预期较强，科技板块有望持续上涨。第 三，港股高股息策略仍具备吸引力，尤其是积极进行市值管理的央企高股息标的。 蓝筹股表现 小米集团-W(01810)表现亮眼。截至收盘，涨7.71%，报41.9港元，成交额274.28亿港元，贡献恒指87.55 点。汇丰研究报告指出，小米受美国关税政策的影响小于苹果的供应商，因为其对美国市场的依赖极 低，而且其产品定位对于不确定的经济前景更具防御性。大和认为，近期小米集团的股价在车祸和配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "immediate refund" service for outbound travelers is expected to boost consumption and enhance China's attractiveness as an international tourism destination [1][3][4] Group 1: Policy Impact - The State Taxation Administration announced the nationwide promotion of the "immediate refund" service for outbound travelers starting April 8 [1] - The policy targets foreign travelers and residents from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan who stay in China for no more than 183 days [1] - The immediate refund service allows travelers to receive VAT refunds directly at the point of purchase, enhancing convenience [3][4] Group 2: Company Responses - Companies like China Duty Free Group indicated that their main tax exemptions are on imported goods, while the immediate refund applies to VAT for foreign travelers [1] - Ctrip Research Institute noted that the core purpose of the refund policy is to encourage tourist spending and promote consumption return [3] - Several listed companies, including Zhongbai Group and Gome Retail, have established stores eligible for the immediate refund service [6][7] Group 3: Market Reaction - Stocks related to the duty-free concept surged, with companies like Wangfujing and China Duty Free Group hitting their daily price limits [1][7] - The market response reflects investor optimism regarding the potential increase in tourist spending due to the new refund policy [1][7]

中国中免港股一度涨超18%，创逾六个月盘中最大涨幅。 ...

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group (601888) saw its stock price increase by 5.20% [1] - The tourism ETF (159766) holds 15.31% of China Duty Free Group's stock, with a current increase of 0.45% [1] - The trading volume reached 96.39 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 30.28%, adding 1.079 billion shares [1] Group 2 - The market leader is being packaged, indicating a strategy to capitalize on the rebound by purchasing index ETFs [1]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - New Kai's impressive showcase at SEMICON China 2025 included over thirty semiconductor equipment products across four categories, indicating a significant advancement in domestic semiconductor equipment localization [4][10][12] - The exhibited equipment supports future advancements towards cutting-edge nodes, which may alleviate supply constraints in advanced process expansion in China [4][10][12] - Investment recommendations include companies such as Zhichun Technology, Xinlai Materials, Fuchuang Precision, Pioneer Precision, Chip Source Micro, and SMIC [4][12] Group 2: Fund Market Outlook - The fund market in April suggests a shift in asset allocation logic, with a recommendation to reduce equity asset positions due to increased market volatility and a downward trend in private sector financing growth [5][14] - The sentiment index for the A-share market indicates a mixed outlook, with only a few stocks reaching new highs, while overall market sentiment is declining [5][14] - The report recommends focusing on large-cap and growth styles, particularly those with high profitability quality, while suggesting stable fixed-income products [5][14] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a recovery, driven by favorable policies and a shift in companies seeking to list abroad, particularly in the tech sector [6][16][18] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing conditions are more flexible compared to A-shares, attracting companies that do not meet A-share requirements [6][16][18] - The trend of companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to provide more quality targets for investment and enhance market liquidity [6][16][18] Group 4: Banking Sector - The banking sector is seeing a continued decline in revenue, with a projected net profit growth of 1.8% for listed banks in 2024, indicating a challenging environment [30][31] - Regulatory changes are being implemented to optimize securities issuance and underwriting management, aiming to attract long-term capital into the market [30][31] - Investment in the banking sector is recommended for its high dividend yield, despite ongoing pressures from interest rate declines and asset quality risks [30][31] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor market remains stable, with expectations of positive growth for major brands in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for high-end products [32][33] - The snack industry is highlighted as a high-growth area, with new product launches and channel expansions continuing to drive consumer interest [32][33] - The restaurant industry is anticipated to show signs of recovery, with recommendations for related sectors such as beer and frozen foods [32][33]

旅游零售Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 基本状况 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 | 总股本(百万股) | 2,068.86 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,068.86 | | 市价(元) | 61.61 | | 市值(百万元) | 127,462.41 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 127,462.41 | 交易预期》2024-11-11 2、《23 年业绩符合预期，需求承压 下估值或不低》2024-04-09 中国中免（601888.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元 ...