●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 当地时间周一晚间，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体Truth Social上发布致美联储理事库克的信称，由于库 克被控取得抵押贷款行为不当，已将她解雇，立即生效。 2. 库克则回应称，特朗普并无权力解雇她，她也不会辞职。库克通过律师表示，她将很快在法院对总统 这一决定申请禁止令，特朗普称他已为法律战做好准备。 3. 美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，下次决策会议可能降息，因为就业市场面临的风险正在上升。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： 在特朗普罢免美联储理事库克后，美元兑所有主要货币均走弱，彭博社称，特朗普此举削弱了人们对美 元这一世界储备货币的信心。特朗普政府持续干预美联储和劳工统计局等机构的运作，正在挑战这些机 构的公信力。这进一步削弱了美元的避险地位。如果鲍威尔在下一次会议上对利率发表鸽派谈话，而且 推动今年另一次降息，黄金就会持续攀升。 FPG特约分析师（chad）观点： 在日线图上，黄金依旧在区间内波动，上方关键阻力位在3438美元，下方支撑位在3245美元。从该周期 来看，没有更多可供参考的信息，市场参与者很可 ...

昨天最大的新闻，是市场走势本身——纳斯达克指数急跌1.4%。 这次下跌值得高度关注： 第一，这是自4月贸易关税风波以来的第二大跌幅，一天跌去了过去近7个交易日取得的涨幅。其中英伟 达暴跌3.5%，直接拖累了大盘。有意思的是，标普500里其实有350多家公司股价上涨，但抵不过"七巨 头"下跌的力量，说明美股的上涨太依赖少数几只科技龙头。这就像篮球比赛里，全队表现还可以，但 核心球星突然状态低迷，比分还是被压制。 接下来，市场的命运交给鲍威尔。市场现在"鸽派定价"太满了（9月必降息 + 年内再降一次），所以风 险在于鲍威尔比预期不那么鸽——只要泼一点冷水，就可能惊起音响。如果他只是模棱两可（中性）， 市场可能会"先跌再修复"，找下一份数据（就业、通胀）来做指引。 这不是暴风雨本身，而是暴风雨前风停云压的时刻。（华尔街情报圈） 本文源自：金融界 第二，从市场关联性看，美国国债和美元走强，市场开始争抢买入"保险"——这和"风险资产普遍承 压"是一致的逻辑，人们在削减风险仓位。比特币和加密货币也跟着下跌，证明市场的心态就是：先避 险，再说未来（先卖出，再看看发生了什么）。 很像2008年那种经典模式：投资者最先做的动作 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that global central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases in the first quarter of 2023, reaching a record net purchase of 228 tons, a 176% increase from 82.7 tons in the same period last year, marking the strongest first quarter on record [1] - The total gold purchases by central banks over the last four quarters have surged to a record 1224 tons, compared to 1136 tons in the previous year, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 152% [1] Group 2 - The largest single buyer in the first quarter was the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which purchased 69 tons of gold, bringing its total reserves to 222 tons, a 45% increase year-on-year [3] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 58 tons, totaling 116.8 tons (412 million ounces) since November 2022 [3] - Turkey and India also increased their gold reserves by 30 tons and 7 tons respectively, with India's total reserves reaching 795 tons [3] Group 3 - The largest sellers of gold in the first quarter were the central banks of Uzbekistan (-15 tons) and Kazakhstan (-20 tons), while Russia's official gold reserves decreased by 6 tons to 2327 tons, although it still saw a year-on-year increase of 28 tons [4] - Other notable sellers included Cambodia (-10 tons), the UAE (-1 ton), and Tajikistan (-1 ton), with Croatia reporting a decrease of 2 tons in January [4] - The recent surge in gold purchases by central banks is driven by investment and hedging demands, particularly in light of economic uncertainties and banking sector turmoil in Europe and the US [4] Group 4 - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold investment demand will continue to grow healthily in 2023, while manufacturing demand is expected to remain relatively stable [5] - It is projected that global central banks will continue to buy gold in significant quantities, although the total may be lower than the record levels seen in 2022 [5] - There is also potential for moderate growth in global gold mine production and recycling [5]

// 央行增持成常态 // 黄金正站在一场历史性风暴的中心：央行持续"扫货"、华尔街巨头"空翻多"、资金疯狂涌入ETF。 在这波汹涌而来的涨势中，投资者该如何抓住机遇，又该如何避开暗流与风险？ 8 月 7 日，中国人民银行数据显示， 7 月末黄金储备达 7396 万盎司，环比增加 6 万盎司，已连续 9 个月增持，这与全球央行购金潮相呼应。 世界黄金协会统计， 2024 年全球央行购金量二季度虽放缓，但上半年仍超十年平均水平 40% ，成为黄金需求重要支柱。 中国央行持续增加黄金储备，一方面是为了应对可能的全球经济波动，另一方面也是为了提升人民币的国际信用度。 // 资金加速涌入黄金 ETF // 截至 8 月 6 日，全市场最低费率的黄金 ETF 基金（ 518660 ）近五日累计资金净流入 9800 万元，流通规模达 35.9 亿元，年初至今份额增长率达 182% ， 低费率、高流动性使其成投资者配置黄金首选。 世界黄金协会数据显示， 2025 年二季度全球黄金需求总量达 1249 吨，同比增长 3% ，其中 ETF 投资流入 170 吨，亚洲地区贡献 70 吨，上半年全球黄金 ETF 需求总量达 397 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **gold investment sector**, highlighting its current valuation and future potential amidst macroeconomic changes [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Indicators**: The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, exceeding expectations, which has influenced market perceptions regarding inflation resilience and interest rate cuts [2][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuations for gold companies are around 15-18 times earnings, with future expectations at 10-12 times, indicating reasonable pricing but necessitating caution regarding risk factors [1][4][5]. - **Performance of Gold Companies**: Companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold reported mid-year results that met or exceeded expectations, suggesting a strong safety margin for gold investments [1][5]. - **Market Trends**: The gold market is expected to experience significant volatility from late 2025 to early 2026, with potential price movements above $3,500 per ounce, driven by both individual and institutional buying [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Phase**: The gold investment sector is currently in a "lagging" phase, having transitioned from a "leading" phase where stock valuations were high but earnings underperformed [4][6]. - **Central Bank Purchases**: Global central banks have purchased over 100 tons of gold in the past three years, with increased buying driven by geopolitical tensions and a focus on monetary stability [8]. - **ETF Inflows**: The decline in opportunity costs and the attractiveness of gold as a non-debt asset are expected to lead to increased inflows into gold ETFs, further supporting gold prices [2][8]. - **Future Price Predictions**: There is a consensus that gold prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce, as various market forces align [9]. Conclusion - The current environment presents a compelling case for gold investment, with strong fundamentals and macroeconomic indicators supporting potential price increases in the near future [1][2][9].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to contrasting economic reports from the US and China, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Economic Reports Impact - The US Labor Department reported that non-farm employment increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [1] - Concurrently, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced a manufacturing PMI of 49.3, marking the second consecutive month below the growth threshold [1] Market Reaction - The spot gold price surged from $3,268 per ounce to $3,363 per ounce, achieving a single-day increase of 2.23%, the largest daily gain in nearly a month [1] - This price movement reflects a reconfiguration of pricing logic influenced by the "US recession alarm" and "Chinese policy easing" [1]

订阅期货大宗商品趋势 +订阅 相关链接 金价触及五周高点！贸易战阴云下，避险或将继续助攻多头？订单流给出什么进场信号？顺姐正在实时 分析，点击观看 实时黄金订单流分析 ...

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]

现货黄金报3352附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报38.23美元/盎司； -----------日内金融市场热点----------------- 17:10 中国6月全社会用电量年率-每月(%) 23:30 美国7月21日6个月期国债竞拍-总金额(亿美元) 美元指数：图表显示目前美指为震荡反弹行情。关注压力100.00位置。 基本面： 周一（7月21日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3347美元/盎司附近。金价上周五上涨0.35%，因美元走软以及地缘政治和经济的持续不确定性 提振了对避险黄金的需求，调查显示，多数分析师倾向于看涨后市，散户看涨比例显著增加。美元指数上周五跌幅为0.5%，这使得黄金对持有其他货币的 买家来说更加便宜。对美债增长的担忧和关税的进一步消息可能会让黄金继续受到关注，目前看来，黄金得到了很好的底部支撑。"在关税方面，印尼仍在 制定与美国新贸易协议的细节，而美国财政部长贝森特则告诉日本首相有可能达成 "良好协议"。 看涨派：不确定性支撑金价尽管市场存在不确定性，但黄金的基本面依然强劲。他指出，即将召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议可能为金价提供新 的推动力，市场预期至少在10月 ...

Macro News - US President Trump stated he does not plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite new criticisms and not ruling out the possibility of dismissal [1] - Trump indicated that the US may maintain the tariff rates set for Japan and could reach a trade agreement with India, although he does not expect a broader agreement with Japan [1] - The EU is prepared to impose tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $83.6 billion) if trade negotiations with Washington fail [1] Economic Outlook - The latest Federal Reserve economic report shows an increase in economic activity, but the outlook remains "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with rising price pressures due to increased import tariffs [2] - The New York Fed President Williams noted that current monetary policy is appropriate, allowing officials to observe the economy before taking further action, and warned that the impact of trade tariffs on the economy is just beginning [2] Gold Market Insights - Gold assets have gained market favor, with the RMB gold price rising 28.19% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 index and reaching historical highs [2] - The traditional framework of "real interest rates determine gold prices" is changing, with real interest rates having reduced predictive power since 2022 [3] - Central banks' large-scale gold purchases, challenges to dollar credit due to sanctions and fiscal deficits, and frequent geopolitical conflicts are driving gold's price increase beyond traditional models [3] - Gold's low correlation with equity assets provides excellent diversification benefits, enhancing the risk-return profile of stock-bond portfolios [3] - Given the current global macroeconomic uncertainties, gold is expected to play a strategic role in asset allocation, offering inflation and risk protection [3]