规模业绩双升，商品ETF跻身配置核心。 作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 近期，商品ETF市场捷报频传，迎来了规模与业绩的双丰收。 Choice数据显示，全市场商品ETF总规模较年初增长超过200%，展现出惊人的资金吸纳能力；与此同 时，其业绩表现同样可圈可点，部分产品年内收益率接近五成，大幅跑赢了许多传统股票和债券资 产。 这一现象绝非偶然，它标志着在大类资产配置的版图上，商品ETF正从一个小众选项蜕变为不可或缺 的战略要地。本文将深入剖析这一"双丰收"现象背后的驱动逻辑，并系统性地阐述商品ETF在当前及 未来市场环境下的独特投资价值。 规模与业绩双增，黄金ETF成为增长主引擎 01 黄金实现规模 业绩双 丰收 Choice数据显示，截至11月中旬，今年以来，17只商品ETF资金合计净流入966.2亿元，总规模达到22 67亿元，较年初增长超200%。 其中，黄金ETF（518880.SH）以859.2亿元规模领先，黄金ETF基金（159937.SZ）和黄金ETF（1599 34.SZ）的规模也较大，分别为386.1亿元、330.1亿元。 | | | | 市面上商品ETF一览 | | | | | -- ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：Refinitiv路孚特） 李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 基本上任何人如果在上述三项资产里只投了黄金的话，就应该要烧香了(据说，有一批早前买了黄金的 投资者，高位套现卖了黄金却在另一个高位「抄底」了比特币.....)。 事实上，富爸爸穷爸爸的作者，一直都预测全球股市将会出现大跌，因此早已持有大量实金实银，还有 虚拟货币「避险」，叫大家莫错失买入良机。(那时候笔者就不明白，如果股市大跌，币如何避险？)最 近作者他本人说，早前已在比特币于9万美元时减持(成本6千美元)，用资金去买一些有现金流的实业..... 大家自己细品。 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | | | Nymex铂金 | | Nymex把金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至10月7日) | 吨 | 跟上周比较 | 筐 | 跟上周比较 | 吨 | 跟上周比较 | [ | 跟上周比较 | | 管理资金的净多头量 | 417 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy may face challenges as inflation re - heats in September, retail sales growth slows, and the Fed may need to cut interest rates. The peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict is making progress, which could potentially impact global markets. In the domestic market, the A - share market rebounds, and the bond market shows mixed performance. The commodity market has different trends in various sectors such as metals, energy, and agriculture [3][22][31] - The report also provides macro - economic data, which shows the current economic situation such as GDP growth, PMI, and inflation rates in the domestic market, and also includes information on international economic data and events that may affect the global and domestic investment environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2%. The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% [1] - Social financing scale in October 2025 was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant drop from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates all declined compared to the previous month [1] - CPI in October 2025 was 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China - US leaders' phone call was initiated by the US, with a positive atmosphere. The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the Fed may cut interest rates [2][3] - On November 25, 47 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 22 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and铸造铝合金 had the largest basis [2] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut, the uncertain situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and concerns about the US fiscal deficit [5] - Zinc, copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel inventories in the London Metal Exchange changed on November 24. Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland decreased in October [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - November, the prices of coke, coking coal, and rebar all increased. However, the increase in coke prices has squeezed steel mills' profits, and coke prices may face downward pressure at the end of the month or early December [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Norway aims to maintain its oil and gas production at 2020 levels by 2035 and will invest about 60 billion Norwegian kroner. European natural gas prices are expected to decline [9] - Iraq's oil exports in October were 110.9 million barrels, and measures are taken to maintain the production of the West Qurna - 2 oilfield [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - November, the prices of corn, wheat, and rice increased, while the price of cotton decreased. The price of natural rubber rose [11] - The inventory of breeding sows in China decreased, and the pig price is expected to rise moderately before the Spring Festival. The breeding of poultry and eggs is expected to face losses [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 25, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 105.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the China - US leaders' phone call is positive. The Chinese government will hold a press conference on promoting consumption [15][16] - China's foreign direct investment and overseas project contracting increased from January to October. Local government special bonds are being issued for government investment funds [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The A - share market is strong, while the bond market is weak. The yields of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds generally increased, and the prices of some bonds of Vanke decreased significantly [22] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, and the convertible bond index rose. The money market interest rates had different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies generally rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December is uncertain. Active management bond funds can break the situation through strategies such as "fixed income +" and medium - long - term credit amortization [28][29] - For 2026, it is recommended to set the GDP target at around 5% and implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [29] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market rebounded, with lithium mines and the Fujian sector performing strongly. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the repurchase amount of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks reached a high level this year [31][32] - Multiple funds have reported new ETF products [32]

部分产品主动限购 "迎着风口、顺着情绪去营销，自然是快速做大基金规模的有效做法。但近年来的实践证明，短时间资 金大进大出并不利于基金投资的平稳运作。"越来越多的基金人士意识到，对于短期可能大量涌入的资 金，基金管理人需要保留一些克制和理性，根据基金投资运作情况决定是否全盘接纳。 有基金经理曾对此解释说，短期资金大量涌入后，假如市场当时没有非常合适的投资机会，基金经理选 择标的面临较大困难，这部分新资金要么只能以现金的形式暂存于账上，要么受限于投资比例规定而不 得不买入，无论是哪一个选择，其实都不太利于维护投资者的利益。尤其是在市场处于偏高位置时，很 容易导致新进投资者受损。因此，合适的做法就是主动进行限购。 近期A股有所回调，部分资金转向避险品种。但从产品策略来看，多家公募机构对可能涌入的避险资金 采取了相对克制的做法。 以具有相对避险属性的债基和货基为例，Wind数据显示，剔除运作期内暂停申赎的基金外，自11月14 日以来，已有超百只产品（含集合资管计划，不同份额分开计算）暂停大额申购，整体以债基居多，其 中不乏产品直接暂停申购。此外，也有部分红利类主题基金启动限购。 积极布局权益宽基 部分基金公司暂停债基 ...

【要闻速递】 今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，COMEX白银期货维持升势，目前交投于51.40美元一线，俄乌局势急 剧恶化，基辅防空警报拉响，和平进程再度受阻，避险买盘强势回归。今日comex白银期货开盘于51.16 美元/盎司，截至发稿comex白银价格暂报51.42美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，最高触及51.51美元/盎司，最低 下探50.77美元/盎司，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 基辅周二凌晨发布紧急防空警报，俄军同时发射"沙赫德"无人机、巡航导弹、弹道导弹以及"匕首"高超 音速导弹，乌克兰全境进入高度戒备状态。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 与此同时，美乌日内瓦会谈虽将原28点和平方案缩减至19点，但俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫明确表态：欧 洲版本的和平方案"不具建设性且损害俄利益"，俄方已正式拒绝。特朗普团队虽然高调喊话"尽快实现 和平"，但泽连斯基直言敏感议题仍需与特朗普直接沟通，短期内达成协议希望渺茫。俄乌冲突有重新 升级风险，白银的传统避险属性被瞬间激活。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 12月白银期货多头近期整体具有技术优势，但已经消退。多头的下一个上行目标是收于坚实技术阻力位 54. ...

上周五美股反弹道指涨近500点，中概指数涨1.23%。连续下跌的港股三大指数集体高开反弹，恒指涨 0.92%，国指涨0.81%，恒生科技指数涨1.13%。权重科技股集体反弹助力指数高开，百度、小米、京东 均有涨幅；瑞银警示明年或面临四大风险，持续看好黄金为避险工具，黄金股涨幅明显，中国黄金国际 涨近5%，汽车股、锂电池股多数强势。另外，风电股、体育用品股、稀土概念股普遍走低。此外，创 新实业首日上市高开超38%。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 2.45% and a cumulative decrease of over 10.6% since October's high of 0.9010, marking the largest monthly drop in 2023. The market is influenced by two opposing forces: the safe-haven demand for CHF due to escalating Middle East tensions and the support for USD from the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate policy. Upcoming Swiss GDP and inflation data are seen as crucial to breaking this stalemate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The volatility in the USD/CHF exchange rate is primarily driven by the contrasting monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve. The SNB is facing pressure to reconsider its zero interest rate policy due to a 0.5% decline in Q3 GDP and a 2.1% year-on-year drop in industrial output, which has sparked discussions about potentially reintroducing negative interest rates [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve, while maintaining a stance on inflation not meeting targets, has seen the USD index drop from a high of 105 to around 102, influenced by the safe-haven demand for CHF [2]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Demand for CHF - The CHF has gained popularity as a safe-haven asset, even surpassing gold in attractiveness, with the largest CHF ETF seeing a 15% increase in holdings over the past week. However, the recent trade agreement reducing tariffs on Swiss goods is only expected to offset one-third of the export losses caused by CHF appreciation [3]. - The SNB's cautious approach to negative interest rates is evident, as it has set a dual threshold of "economic recession + deflation" before considering such measures, which has temporarily restrained CHF's rapid appreciation [2][3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of USD/CHF - Technically, the USD/CHF has broken below previous support levels, indicating a "guillotine" pattern, with current trading around 0.8049 in a downtrend. Key resistance levels are identified between 0.8150 and 0.8180, while support is centered around the psychological level of 0.8000 [4]. - Indicators suggest an "oversold rebound" signal, with the exchange rate deviating significantly from the 20-day moving average and the RSI indicator at a three-year low, indicating a high probability of a rebound in the near term [4].

Group 1 - The recent U.S. employment data indicates a significant decline in private sector jobs, averaging a decrease of 2,500 jobs per week in the first four weeks of November, compared to an increase of 14,000 jobs in the first half of October, signaling a shift from growth to contraction in the job market [2] - Weak employment data suggests a decrease in economic vitality, leading to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which typically supports gold prices as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset [2] - Following the employment report, gold prices rebounded, reflecting the market's direct response to the anticipated policy shift [2] Group 2 - Gold's significance extends beyond investment; it serves as a "safety net" for individuals facing financial difficulties, as illustrated by a couple who turned to their gold jewelry for emergency cash to manage their living expenses and debts [3] - The value of gold is highlighted as not just a symbol of wealth but also as a crucial asset that can be liquidated in times of need, providing financial security during market volatility [3][4] - The narrative emphasizes that while gold prices may fluctuate, its intrinsic value remains constant, serving as a reliable resource in challenging times [3][4] Group 3 - Recommendations suggest that individuals should consider allocating a portion of their investments to gold (such as gold bars or ETFs) to combat inflation and diversify risk [5] - In urgent situations, converting idle gold jewelry into cash can help avoid falling into debt traps, showcasing gold's role as a last line of defense against financial uncertainty [5] - The enduring nature of gold as a hard currency reinforces its position as a critical asset for individuals to mitigate risks in an unpredictable market [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant decline in Asian markets due to escalating political tensions between Japan and China, with the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI dropping by 3.22% and 3.32% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 fell by 0.81% and 0.65% [1] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market was 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 156 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a high level of trading activity despite the market downturn [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also experienced declines of 1.72% and 1.93%, respectively, with significant net inflows into stocks like Alibaba and XPeng [1][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The report notes a rotation in sector performance, with the renewable energy sector experiencing a downturn while AI and semiconductor sectors showed resilience, with respective increases of 0.77% and 0.75% [3] - The renewable energy sector's strong performance prior to November 14 raised expectations, making it more sensitive to negative news, while the AI and semiconductor sectors benefited from reduced structural risks [3] - In the Hong Kong market, technology stocks saw continued net inflows, particularly into ETFs focused on technology, indicating a strong interest in this sector despite broader market declines [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has seen a decrease in trading activity, with the number of transactions for 10-year government bonds and policy bank bonds dropping significantly compared to late October [4][5] - The report suggests that the current low volatility environment may favor a more cautious trading approach, with a recommendation to consider spread strategies in the bond market [6] - Recent monetary policy actions, including the central bank's repo operations, have maintained a stable liquidity environment, although there are signs of tightening due to upcoming fiscal payments [5] Group 4: Commodity Market Sentiment - The commodity market is characterized by weak sentiment, with declines in precious metals and industrial metals, attributed to a retreat in global risk appetite and expectations of interest rate changes [7][8] - Significant outflows were observed across major commodity sectors, with notable withdrawals from precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy commodities [7] - The report indicates that the recent pullback in precious metals may be nearing an end, with central bank gold purchasing trends remaining strong despite short-term fluctuations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global risk-off sentiment affecting various markets, including declines in U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even gold. It highlights the investment strategies of former President Trump, who purchased significant amounts of corporate and municipal bonds during this period [1]. Market Overview - The article notes that the A-share market experienced a collective decline on November 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The total trading volume across the three markets was 1,946.17 billion yuan, an increase of 15.701 billion yuan from the previous day [16]. - Over 4,100 stocks in the market fell, with 63 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 23 stocks were locked, and 17 stocks had consecutive limit-ups, with the maximum being six consecutive limit-ups [16]. Sector Analysis - The lithium battery sector faced a downturn due to profit-taking and rumors regarding price increases being debunked. Additionally, there were reports of a price war in the energy storage sector, with prices dropping by 30% [12]. - The AI application sector saw some stocks rise against the trend, with companies like Rongji Software and Inspur Software performing well [16]. - The semiconductor sector remained active, driven by concerns over supply chain security due to changing Sino-Japanese relations and the upcoming IPOs of domestic companies [16]. Financial Support Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and 12 other departments issued a plan to boost consumption in Beijing, particularly focusing on financial support for automobile loans, including incentives for new energy vehicle purchases [23]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that the main funds saw a net outflow of 87.67 billion yuan, with the largest outflows occurring in the electric equipment sector. Conversely, sectors like media, computing, and communication saw net inflows [26]. - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Liou Shares and Huasheng Tiancai, while companies like Tianshi Materials and Yangguang Electric Power experienced the largest net outflows [26]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The article indicates that sectors such as media, computing, and electronics are leading in performance, while coal, electric equipment, and steel are lagging. The trading heat in sectors like defense, basic chemicals, and agriculture has increased, with some sectors like agriculture and non-bank financials currently at historical low PE percentiles [33].