Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities > equities > bonds [1] Equities - CITIC Securities forecasts a 5%-10% annual increase for the Wind All A-share index in 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance bottom rebound and a second round of valuation recovery, referred to as a "Davis Double-Click" market [1] - US stocks are likely to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the mid-term election year [1] Bonds - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8%, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Commodities - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel throughout the year [1] - Gold is anticipated to maintain strength supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is expected to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price forecasted to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Currency - The Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]

葛小波 ◎记者 汤立斌 "近年来，资本市场一系列政策举措，从拓宽融资渠道、降低融资成本、优化市场环境等多方面，持续 提升科创企业的融资效力，促进了区域经济的协同发展。"国联民生总裁葛小波在接受上海证券报记者 专访时表示，在此背景下，证券公司需要深度嵌入产业链协同与区域创新生态，塑造与科创企业共生共 长共荣的关系，共筑新质生产力竞争壁垒。 在葛小波看来，资本市场在推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展的过程中发挥着重要枢纽功能，随着市场 制度的包容性与适应性不断提高，证券公司服务科技创新也被赋予了新的内涵和要求。 "首先是融资需求，企业在发展的不同阶段，需要不同类型的资金，如何助力其实现高效、便捷和低成 本的融资战略，是证券公司服务的主要内容。"葛小波表示，"其次是战略合作需求，证券公司帮助企业 融资仅仅是最基本的服务，更重要的是通过融资与战略伙伴建立起股权纽带关系。最后是并购需求，科 技企业通过并购实现规模扩张，构建第二发展曲线和产业链整合。" "在新形势下，只有在服务新质生产力和推动科技创新方面发挥出作用，形成自身的经营特色和服务能 力，证券公司才能在未来的竞争中立于不败之地。"葛小波说。 2024年4月，中国证监 ...

包括来自计算机行业首席分析师刘高畅团队的分析师赵伟博、陈芷婧、李可夫；电子首席分析师郑震湘团队的分析师刘嘉元；还有医药分析师 王彦迪、传媒行业分析师阮文佳。以上分析师均无法在中证协的从业人员信息公示系统中查询到执业信息。月初，公司环保和公用事业分析师 沈佳纯、陈杨也离任，后者已加入东方财富证券。 事实上，国盛证券研究所的流动从今年9月开始就持续升温。 9月至10月，公司固收分析师朱美华加盟申万宏源证券资管，机器人行业分析师邓宇亮加盟华福证券，银行首席分析师马婷婷、分析师陈惠琴 加盟国泰海通，策略分析师丁琼加盟西部证券，新能源汽车分析师刘伟离任。 11月，业内更是传出国盛证券研究所"核心层流失"——联席所长郑震湘、所长助理兼医药首席分析师张金洋、计算机首席分析师刘高畅已集体 提交离职申请的消息，有消息称郑震湘或转型进入买方机构任职，张金洋或出任国联民生证券研究所副总经理，刘高畅或加盟东方财富证券研 究所。 图片来源：视觉中国 蓝鲸新闻12月25日讯（记者 胡劼）临近年关，券商研究所的人才流动再度成为市场焦点。记者注意到，本月，国盛证券研究所已有多名覆盖 医药、计算机、传媒等行业的分析师集中离职，公司研究所自9月 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：进门聊 责任编辑：何俊熹 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：进门聊 责任编辑：何俊熹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resumption of land reserve special bonds is a significant measure to stabilize the land market and alleviate the pressure on local government financing and real estate companies, with over 540 billion yuan issued this year [1] Group 1: Special Bonds Issuance - A total of over 540 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds has been issued this year, with announced land acquisition projects exceeding 600 billion yuan, indicating a slight delay in bond issuance [1] - As of the latest data, 27 provinces and cities have publicly announced specific information on acquiring idle land projects, covering 5,314 plots with a total funding scale of 6,034.33 billion yuan [1] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has been relatively slow, with only over 200 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year compared to nearly 500 billion yuan in announced projects [2] Group 2: Project Characteristics - Over 80% of the land acquisition projects involve local state-owned enterprises or city investment subsidiaries, with a minimal share from private enterprises, and the land types primarily include comprehensive, residential, and commercial properties [2] - The average negotiation period for project pricing has exceeded four months, indicating challenges in pricing agreements between government and enterprises [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The issuance of land reserve special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year as more regions join the program, with 26 provinces and cities having issued or planned to issue bonds totaling 545.15 billion yuan [2] - Despite operational challenges, local governments are gradually implementing policies tailored to regional land market conditions, indicating a proactive approach to land reserve projects [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that the electricity trading results for Guangdong Province in 2026 are in line with expectations, with potential profitability pressure on thermal power units, while the spot market is expected to provide performance increments [1]. Group 1: Electricity Pricing and Trading - The average transaction price for thermal power is 372.14 cents/kWh, down 5.03% year-on-year, which is close to the market reference price's downward adjustment of 20% [1]. - The green electricity transaction price is 372.21 cents/kWh, with an environmental premium of 4.93 cents/kWh, leading to a comprehensive price of 377.14 cents/kWh, down 3.88% year-on-year, but higher than the mechanism price of 360 cents/kWh [1]. - The trading volume of green electricity in 2026 is expected to increase by 17.74% year-on-year, reaching 4.779 billion kWh compared to 4.059 billion kWh in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Capacity Pricing and Overall Electricity Price - Starting from January 2026, the coal power capacity subsidy in Guangdong will increase from 100 yuan/kW to 165 yuan/kW, resulting in a capacity price increase of 0.016 yuan/kWh year-on-year [2]. - The annual comprehensive electricity price for coal power units in Guangdong is projected to be 0.414 yuan/kWh, down 0.78% year-on-year, indicating stability [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The electricity supply-demand situation in Guangdong is expected to remain loose in 2026, continuing the trend from 2025, with an anticipated increase in installed capacity [3]. - The spot market prices are expected to exhibit greater volatility due to the large-scale entry of green electricity, allowing operators to profit through flexible strategies [3]. - The functional premium of thermal power is expected to be highlighted through the spot market as green electricity enters the market in large quantities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China SME Financing Forum" was held in Beijing, focusing on enhancing financing services for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The forum was organized by the SME Development Promotion Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The event introduced three key service platforms: "Location Service Sector," "Innovation Achievement Launch Platform," and "Financial Credit Enhancement Service Platform" [1] Group 2: Partnerships and Collaborations - The SME Development Promotion Center has established an innovative partnership mechanism with various institutions, including Zhejiang Merchants Securities, Beijing Fund Industry Association, Renmin Financial, and Fushi Technology [1]

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点张如意 12月25日，省政府新闻办举行新闻发布会，邀请省财政厅主要负责同志等介绍"十四五"时期山东深化财 政改革发展情况。记者在会上了解到，近年来，省财政厅坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，主动更新理 财观念，创新投入方式，跨前一步、主动作为，携手各方金融机构，创新实施"财金协同联动提升行 动"，在更大空间、更广领域集聚要素资源，为高质量发展注入了强劲动能。 在工作思路上，重点做到"三个坚持"：一是坚持市场理念，让资源配置更高效。用好财政奖补、贷款贴 息、引导基金、股权投资等市场化手段，变"行政选择"为"市场遴选"，让专业的人干专业的事，最大程 度调动市场积极性。二是坚持互利共赢，让资金投入更聚焦。找准财政政策和金融政策的结合点，精准 引导金融"活水"流向，既有力推动决策部署落实落地，也让参与机构在支持高质量发展、推进重大战略 实施中获得预期收益，达到联动和双赢的效果。三是坚持系统设计，让支持发展的力量更集成。打 通"政策+机构+项目"全过程各环节，穿透到基层和市场主体，推动生产要素畅通流动、市场潜力充分 释放，达到"1+1＞2"的效果。 具体工作推进中，主要加强了"四个联动"：一是加强机构联动 ...

12月25日盘中，离岸人民币对美元汇率续创15个月以来新高，升破7.0元关口。 庞溟分析，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。市场预期，伴随美联储继续开展降 息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，临近年底，企业结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强；特别是近 期人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求有可能加速释放。 "人民币持续升值，会增大国内资本市场对外资的吸引力，直接增加外资的汇兑收益。就当前来说，汇 市走强有助于提振国内资本市场信心。"王青说。 对于人民币汇率升破7元关口，庞溟表示，预计汇率中枢将围绕7元关口双向波动、稳中偏强运行，单边 快速行情的概率不高。 国泰海通证券研究报告分析，未来人民币汇率与美元指数的脱钩将成为常态，人民币汇率破7具有基本 面和政策端的双重基础。不过也需要关注基本面边际变化，中长期看，基本面才是支撑汇率走强的核心 Wind数据显示，截至25日10:29，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9999元，较前收盘价上涨77个基点，盘中 最高报6.9981元，升破7元关口。 "近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：兴业证券发布 近期，在由中国人民银行、中国证监会等监管机构主导的"2024年度金融科技发展奖"评选中，兴业证券 及子公司兴证全球基金，凭借自主研发的前沿成果，从全国681项顶尖成果中脱颖而出，双双荣获三等 奖。 兴业证券此次获奖的"基于指标体系的数智化运维治理平台"项目，是公司前瞻性打造的新一代智能运维 体系的核心。该体系以"巡天平台"为基，取意"巡天遥看一千河"，旨在以全局视野驾驭复杂系统。 平台以指标体系为抓手，集监控、自动化、管理与分析于一体，推动运维从"被动保障"迈向"主动赋 能"，深度助力业务与技术融合提质增效。同时，公司积极参与行业共建，作为主要起草单位参与了智 能运维国家标准的制定，牵头多项金融科技监管课题、证标委行业标准及团体标准研究，将自身优秀实 践转化为行业共享的方案与标准。 兴证全球基金 深度融合场景，以技术重塑业务价值 兴证全球基金自主研发的"千询固收智能交易平台"，实现了固收交易从人工到智能全流程的突破，平台 通过AI智能解析等技术，每日为每位交易员节省约3小时，询价效率提升超50%，成功将前沿科技与核 ...