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中国汽车流通协会:10月13日-19日二手车市场日均交易量回调至6.89万辆 全月交易量预计在187万辆左右
智通财经网· 2025-10-23 09:04
Core Insights - The average daily transaction volume in the used car market decreased to 68,900 units from October 13 to 19, 2025, reflecting an 8.3% week-over-week decline, although this level remains higher than the same period in September [1] - Cumulatively, from October 1 to 19, the used car transaction volume reached 1.29 million units, representing a 6.6% increase compared to September, with an estimated total of around 1.87 million units for the entire month [1] Market Performance - 32% of used car businesses reported a decline in store traffic, while 46% indicated that current transaction volumes are stable compared to early September [2] - 60% of businesses noted that used car prices remained consistent with the previous week, while 25% reported prices continuing to decline, particularly in the mid-range segment priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan [2] Economic Context - Key macroeconomic indicators remained stable in the first three quarters, with a 5.1% year-over-year increase in per capita disposable income and a 4.5% increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [2] - The automotive consumption amount reached 35,923 billion yuan, showing a 1% year-over-year growth [2] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for the used car market, supported by increased replacement rates, ample vehicle supply, and improved customer traffic [2] Regional Analysis - The North China region saw a 9.52% increase in average daily transaction volume, with Beijing experiencing a notable 20% growth [6] - The Northeast region reported a 7.52% decline, with Shenyang showing a significant drop of nearly 30% [7] - The Southwest region experienced a 10.46% decrease, with Kunming's transaction volume dropping over 25% [8] - The Central South region's average daily transaction volume fell by 8.57%, with Wuhan and Pingdingshan showing declines exceeding 25% [8]
中国汽车流通协会:10月1日—12日二手车市场日均交易量环比9月底增长4.98%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-16 12:23
Core Insights - The second-hand car market in China is experiencing increased activity, with an average daily transaction volume of 75,100 vehicles from October 1 to 12, reflecting a 4.98% increase compared to the end of September [1] Market Activity - The National Automobile Circulation Association reported that promotional activities by second-hand car dealers during the National Day holiday significantly boosted offline customer traffic, which increased by approximately 15% compared to the end of September [1] - The extended purchasing cycle among consumers is evident, with potential customers who inquired during the holiday now entering the conversion phase, contributing to the growth in transaction volume [1] Challenges in the Market - Despite the increased activity, second-hand car dealers are facing weak overall profitability, with gross margins remaining in the range of 3% to 4%, indicating low profit potential [1] - Vehicle turnover efficiency is under pressure, with warning signs regarding turnover cycles; the turnover days for second-hand electric vehicles have reached 30 days (warning threshold), while for fuel vehicles, it is approximately 45 days, indicating a need for improved inventory liquidity [1]
中国汽车流通协会:10月1-12日二手车市场日均交易量达7.51万辆 环比增长4.98%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 12:22
Core Insights - The second-hand car market in China is experiencing increased activity, with an average daily transaction volume of 75,100 vehicles during the first 12 days of October 2025, representing a 4.98% increase compared to the end of September [1] - The market is supported by promotional activities from dealers during the National Day holiday, which led to a 15% increase in offline customer traffic compared to the end of September [1] - However, challenges persist, including weak profitability for dealers, with gross margins remaining between 3% and 4%, and significant vehicle turnover issues, particularly for new energy vehicles, which have a turnover period of 30 days [1][3] Market Trends - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for the second-hand car market, driven by increased replacement rates, ample vehicle supply, and improved customer traffic [3] - Dealers are advised to adopt a cautious approach in their fourth-quarter strategies, focusing on optimizing inventory structure and controlling capital usage to mitigate risks associated with residual value fluctuations and inventory turnover [3] Regional Performance - The overall second-hand car market shows steady growth, with notable increases in transaction volumes in Northeast, East China, Southwest, and Central South regions, while North and Northwest regions experienced slight declines [6] - In East China, the average daily transaction volume reached 26,200 vehicles, with cities like Hangzhou, Wenzhou, and Jinhua seeing transaction volume increases exceeding 20% [7] - North China reported an average daily transaction volume of 2,700 vehicles, with significant declines in Beijing and Tianjin, where transaction volumes dropped by over 10% [7] - The Northeast region saw an average daily transaction volume of 2,700 vehicles, with Longcheng showing a remarkable increase of over 20% [8] - The Southwest region's average daily transaction volume was 13,700 vehicles, with Chengdu and Chongqing both experiencing transaction volume increases of 15% [8] - In Central South, the average daily transaction volume was 28,700 vehicles, with Wuhan and Haikou showing strong growth, both exceeding 25% [9] - The Northwest region had an average daily transaction volume of 1,100 vehicles, with significant declines in Xining and Wuzhong, while markets in Xi'an and Bazhou showed notable increases [9]
申银万国期货早间策略-20251016
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, and it is likely to maintain a bullish trend. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4601.60, 4586.60, 4576.40, and 4555.00 respectively, with increases of 70.60, 73.20, 77.20, and 77.80. The trading volumes were 40430.00, 16606.00, 86223.00, and 12308.00, and the open interests were 35819.00, 24260.00, 160428.00, and 56592.00, with changes of - 9895.00, 5467.00, - 2013.00, and - 848.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 300 corresponding to these contracts were 1.56%, 1.62%, 1.72%, and 1.74% [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2999.40, 2998.20, 2997.40, and 2998.40, with increases of 41.00, 46.00, 44.40, and 44.60. The trading volumes were 17842.00, 6567.00, 41717.00, and 5176.00, and the open interests were 13703.00, 6914.00, 63594.00, and 13300.00, with changes of - 5392.00, 1526.00, - 1687.00, and - 796.00 respectively. The increases of the SSE 50 corresponding to these contracts were 1.39%, 1.56%, 1.50%, and 1.51% [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7278.20, 7196.20, 7140.20, and 6977.00, with increases of 118.40, 124.20, 121.60, and 120.00. The trading volumes were 38456.00, 19428.00, 105607.00, and 19123.00, and the open interests were 34255.00, 32793.00, 141518.00, and 52944.00, with changes of - 9786.00, 5875.00, - 10422.00, and - 2023.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 500 corresponding to these contracts were 1.65%, 1.76%, 1.73%, and 1.75% [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7455.80, 7362.60, 7275.20, and 7060.20, with increases of 117.60, 128.20, 126.60, and 134.20. The trading volumes were 55423.00, 28745.00, 178569.00, and 30417.00, and the open interests were 47911.00, 46218.00, 191595.00, and 84507.00, with changes of - 11189.00, 7939.00, - 2448.00, and - 280.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 1000 corresponding to these contracts were 1.60%, 1.77%, 1.77%, and 1.94% [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 15.00, - 1.20, - 82.00, and - 93.20 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 25.20, - 3.60, - 87.40, and - 110.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4606.29, 3001.35, 7294.00, and 7483.45 respectively, with increases of 1.48%, 1.36%, 1.38%, and 1.50%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 284.77, 63.38, 217.56, and 244.85, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6073.26, 1571.06, 3974.59, and 4037.98 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the increases of energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities were 0.32%, 1.18%, 1.98%, 1.49%, 0.45%, 1.77%, 1.06%, 2.75%, 1.11%, and - 0.20% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 4.69, - 19.69, - 29.89, and - 51.29 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 1.34, - 23.86, - 31.86, and - 52.86 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.95, - 3.15, - 3.95, and - 2.95 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 3.90, 0.30, - 2.70, and - 0.10 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 15.80, - 97.80, - 153.80, and - 317.00 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 41.45, - 128.85, - 184.85, and - 350.65 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 27.65, - 120.85, - 208.25, and - 423.25 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 33.15, - 143.15, - 227.35, and - 451.15 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3912.21, 13118.75, 8106.60, and 3025.87 respectively, with increases of 1.22%, 1.73%, 1.77%, and 2.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were 25910.60, 46847.32, 6671.06, and 24181.37 respectively, with increases of 1.84%, - 2.58%, 0.40%, and - 0.23% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The US side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation. China also opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices in the name of enhancing competitiveness [2] - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - In September, China's CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month and returning to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - In September, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, and the average interest rate of newly issued personal housing loans was about 3.1%, about 25 basis points lower than the same period last year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years, aiming to build 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [2] - In September, the trading volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.7944 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a trading amount of 110.466 billion yuan [2] - Chengdu expanded the scope of beneficiaries of the "commercial - to - provident" loan policy,取消了本市缴存限制,符合条件的异地缴存人也可申请办理,and all commercial banks that have signed cooperation agreements with the Chengdu Housing Provident Fund Center can participate [2]
今年前三季度二手车累计交易金额为9462.27亿元
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-15 12:48
北京商报讯(记者刘晓梦)10月15日,中国汽车流通协会发布的数据显示,今年前三季度二手车累计交易 量1473.28万辆,同比增长3.63%,累计交易金额为9462.27亿元。 ...
今年前三季度二手车累计交易金额为9462.27亿元。
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-15 12:46
Core Insights - The China Automobile Circulation Association reported that the total transaction volume of used cars in the first three quarters of this year reached 14.73 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.63% [1] - The cumulative transaction value for used cars during the same period amounted to 946.23 billion yuan [1] Industry Summary - The used car market in China shows a positive growth trend with a slight increase in transaction volume compared to the previous year [1] - The significant transaction value indicates a robust market demand and consumer confidence in the used car sector [1]
中国汽车流通协会:9月全国二手车市场交易量179.44万辆 环比增长5.10%
智通财经网· 2025-10-15 09:03
智通财经APP获悉,中国汽车流通协会数据显示,2025年9月,全国二手车市场交易量179.44万辆,环比增长5.10%,同比增 长8.20%,交易金额为1104.66亿元。2025年1-9月,二手车累计交易量1473.28万辆,同比增长3.63%,与同期相比增加51.60万 辆,累计交易金额为9462.27亿元。 更为关键的是,"十一" 黄金周临近催生了强劲的出行需求,长途跨省出行与自驾出行成为热门选择,"自驾游刚需" 直接推动 节前购车需求集中释放,成为本月二手车交易量增长的核心驱动力之一。面对这一市场机遇,多数二手车市场及经销商精准 把握消费节点,主动推出降价、金融贴息、置换补贴等多元化促销活动,有效匹配了消费者的购车意愿,进一步放大了市场 需求。在需求增长与促销发力的双重利好下,市场库存压力得到阶段性缓解,高库存状况有所改善,既为后续市场稳健运行 奠定了基础,也为经销商优化库存结构提供了宝贵窗口期。 不过,当前市场也呈现出鲜明的 "量价分化" 格局,重点车型零售价并未随交易量同步上涨。核心原因在于车源供给保持充 足,同时新车市场近期新品频发对二手车价格形成一定压制,导致短期价格上涨动力不足。从市场运行特 ...
2025年8月全国二手车交易量170.74万辆,同环比均呈现增长
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-10-13 07:26
Core Insights - The overall automotive market in China is transitioning from a low season to a peak season, but faces challenges due to weather and the concentration of new car launches [2] - The used car market shows a steady upward trend, with an increase in transaction volume both month-on-month and year-on-year, particularly in the last week of August [2][3] - The demand for family vehicles is expected to rise with the approaching school season, providing strong support for market growth [2] - The second-hand car replacement rate is anticipated to improve as the market enters the traditional sales peak in September [2] - The price stability in the new car market is creating a favorable environment for the continued development of the used car market [2] Used Car Market Performance - In August 2025, the total used car transaction volume reached 1.7074 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 2.80% [3] - The transaction volume for basic passenger cars was 953,000 units, up 3.13% month-on-month and 6.88% year-on-year [3] - The MPV and crossover passenger car segments performed better than others, with significant year-on-year growth [3] Vehicle Age and Pricing Trends - In August, the most traded used cars were aged 3-6 years, accounting for 42.36% of transactions, although this was a decrease from the previous month and year [4] - The average transaction price for used cars in August was 62,400 yuan, down 140 yuan from July and 320 yuan from the previous year [5] - The proportion of used cars aged over 7 years has increased, indicating a shift towards older models in the market [4] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market - In August 2025, 148,400 used NEVs were traded, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.9% and a year-on-year increase of 59.6% [8] - The total NEV transactions from January to August reached 978,000 units, a 41.8% increase compared to the same period last year [8] - The market share of SUV models in the used NEV segment is growing, while A0 and A-class models are seeing a decline [10] Inventory and Turnover Rates - The average inventory turnover cycle in September was 46 days, unchanged from August, indicating a need for cautious inventory management among dealers [11] - The turnover rate for used cars reached 30.85% in August, with a total of 526,700 units transferred, marking a 4.28% increase month-on-month [10]
【二手车】2025年8月全国二手车市场深度分析
乘联分会· 2025-10-13 02:01
Market Overview - In August 2025, the national used car market saw a transaction volume of 1.7074 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 2.80% and a year-on-year increase of 9.02%, totaling a transaction value of 106.517 billion yuan [3] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative transaction volume reached 12.9384 million units, a year-on-year growth of 3.03%, with a total transaction value of 835.761 billion yuan [3] Weekly Analysis - From September 15 to 21, 2025, the average daily transaction volume in the used car market was 68,100 units, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 5.6% compared to August [6] Segment Market Changes - In August 2025, the transaction volume for basic passenger cars was 953,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 3.13% and a year-on-year increase of 6.88% [8] - The SUV segment saw 225,000 units sold, with a month-on-month increase of 3.49% and a year-on-year increase of 6.37% [8] - Commercial vehicles showed mixed results, with passenger cars down 0.86% month-on-month but up 11.84% year-on-year, while cargo vehicles increased by 1.88% month-on-month and 15.91% year-on-year [8] Price Analysis - In August 2025, the average transaction price of used cars was 62,400 yuan, down 1400 yuan from July and down 3200 yuan year-on-year [28] - The largest market share was for vehicles priced below 30,000 yuan, accounting for 29.7%, although this segment saw a month-on-month decline of 0.7 percentage points [25] Regional Performance - The used car market showed varied performance across six major regions, with only the North China region experiencing a slight decline, while the other regions saw growth, particularly in Central South and Southwest regions [26] - The East China region recorded a transaction volume of 477,300 units, up 2.79% month-on-month [26] New Energy Vehicle Market - In August 2025, the transaction volume for used new energy vehicles reached 148,400 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.9% and a year-on-year increase of 59.6% [32] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative transaction volume for new energy vehicles was 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% [32] Vehicle Age Analysis - In August 2025, vehicles aged 3-6 years accounted for the largest share of transactions at 42.36%, although this was a decrease of 1.33 percentage points from the previous month [19] - Vehicles aged over 10 years saw an increase in market share to 13.13%, up 0.64 percentage points month-on-month [19] Transfer Rate and Dealer Insights - The transfer rate for used cars in August was 30.85%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [47] - The top five provinces for transfer rates were Beijing, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, with Beijing leading at 36.55% [51]
【会讯】2025年10月乘用车市场分析发布会会议通知
乘联分会· 2025-10-11 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The article announces the upcoming "2025 Passenger Car Market Analysis Release Conference," which will provide insights into the national passenger car market dynamics, industry policies, pricing, used cars, new energy vehicles, commercial vehicles, and the Shanghai automotive market [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Details - The conference will be hosted by the China Automobile Dealers Association Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference Secretariat and co-organized by various organizations including Sohu Auto and Ipsos (China) Consulting Co., Ltd. [1] - The online report will be released on October 13, 2025, at 10:00 AM [1]. - The report will cover multiple topics, including: 1. September 2025 Shanghai automobile market registration data [1] 2. Analysis of the 2025 version of the "Passenger Car Fuel Consumption Evaluation Methods and Indicators" standard [1] 3. Focus on the 2025 TEDA Forum [1] 4. August 2025 new energy vehicle industry monthly report [1] 5. September 2025 light commercial vehicle market forecast research report [1] 6. August 2025 national used car market in-depth analysis [1][2] 7. August 2025 Beijing automobile market analysis [2] 8. September 2025 national passenger car market analysis [2]