Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for January to May 2025 reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline slightly narrowing compared to the previous months [1] - Central government revenue decreased by 3%, while local government revenue increased by 1.9% [1] - National tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous months [1] Tax Performance by Sector - The manufacturing sector showed strong tax revenue performance, particularly in equipment manufacturing, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 28.8%, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [2] - In the service sector, tax revenue from cultural, sports, and entertainment industries increased by 7.8%, driven by consumer demand and policies promoting consumption [2] - The digital economy also showed positive growth, with tax revenue from information transmission, software, and IT services increasing by 10%, and from scientific research and technical services by 12.7% [2] - Non-tax revenue for January to May was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2%, mainly due to asset activation measures [2] Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure for January to May was 112,953 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%, with a focus on key areas [3] - Social security and employment expenditures reached 20,054 billion yuan, growing by 9.2%, while education expenditures were 17,455 billion yuan, up 6.7% [3] - Health expenditures amounted to 8,896 billion yuan, increasing by 3.9%, and science and technology expenditures were 3,609 billion yuan, up 6.5% [3] - Local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds are being accelerated to support project implementation [3] - Government fund budget expenditure for January to May was 32,125 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [3]

[Table_Summary] ★外需走弱但国补生效，经济数据表现分化 国 债 期 货 经济数据表现分化。生产端：1）5 月工增同比增 5.8%，低于前 值和预期，外需走弱应是核心原因，另外长期偏低的物价也应 制约了工业生产的上涨。2）政策发力进一步加速了假期需求释 放，服务业生产指数同比增 6.2%，较前值上升 0.2 个百分点。需 求端：1）1-5 月，制造业投资累计增速录得 8.5%，前值 9.8%， 外需走弱压力逐渐凸显，企业逐渐减少了长期债务和资本开 支；2）地产数据再度普遍走弱，居民部门内生性扩张意愿不 足，且 4-5 月缺乏有效稳地产政策的支撑。3）5 月社零同比增 6.4%，高于前值和预期，结构上出行社交、可选消费表现较 强，应是受到了国补等政策支撑以及"618"活动前置的影响。 4）1-5 月基建累计增速录得 10.4%，前值 10.9%，今年地方专项 债发行节奏不及市场预期，基建增速逐渐转弱。 综合 4-5 月来看，经济数据表现出了一定韧性，Q2 实现 5%的增 长难度不大。但 Q3 基本面的压力会逐渐显现：1）随着关税豁 免逐渐到期，外需走弱的压力会进一步显性化，且抢出口本身 也具有透支 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...

宏观点评 20250616 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 经济叙事的三重分化——5 月经济数据点评 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ◼ 具体来看，5 月经济各领域表现如下： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《工业生产淡季不弱，"抢出口"有所 放缓》 2025-06-15 《"抢进口"与服务部门衰退冲击令美 国 5 月 CPI 环比不及预期》 2025-06-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 5 月经济仍然具有韧性。供给端，5 月工业增加值同比+5.8%，服务业生 产指数同比+6.2%，分别比上月下降 0.3 个点、提高 0.2 个点，供给侧工 业小幅走弱、服务业小幅走强，整体大致跟上月持平。需求端，社零同 比+6.4%，比上月提高 1.3 个点；固定资产投资累计同比 3.7%，比上月 下降 0.3 个点（推算当月同比从 3.6%降至 2.9%）； ...

Core Insights - The latest VAT invoice data from the State Taxation Administration indicates that the real economy continues to grow, with sustained innovation and increasing sales revenue across multiple sectors in May [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - In May, the sales revenue of the manufacturing sector accounted for 30.1% of the total sales of national enterprises, providing significant support for economic growth [1] - The sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.5% year-on-year, indicating robust performance [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Growth - Notable growth was observed in specific segments of the manufacturing sector, with sales revenue for railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment increasing by 15.1%, and for computer and communication equipment by 13.1%, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing saw an 8.6% increase [1]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, still in the contraction zone[4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone[4] - The new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points, but remains below the levels seen in March (49.0%) and April[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months[4] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium enterprises' PMI fell to 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points[5] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The raw materials price index is at 46.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating ongoing price pressure[4] - The finished goods price index is at 44.7%, also down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting weak downstream demand[4] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index is at 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The production activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved business sentiment[6] - The overall economic environment shows a structural characteristic where supply exceeds demand, necessitating policy support to alleviate price pressures[4]

刘宇航：5月份，新出口订单指数为47.5%，较上月上升2.8个百分点。加上国内需求继续稳定释 放，新订单指数为49.8%，较上月上升0.6个百分点。 生产指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业企业生产活动有所加快。 央广网北京6月1日消息（记者张棉棉）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，中 国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局5月31日公布，5月份，制造业采购经理指数较明显回升，企业生产经 营活动加快，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，景气水平比上月改善。中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航说，需求整体趋 稳运行，新动能较好增长。调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启，进出口情况有所改善。 国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长霍丽慧：农副食品加工、专用设备、铁路船舶、航空航 天设备等行业的生产指数和新订单指数都是高于54%，供需两端较快增长。 大型企业PMI为50.7%，较上月上升1.5个百分点。高技术制造业PMI为50.9%，连续4个月保持在扩 张区间，延续较好发展态势；装备制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.2%和50.2%，比上月上升1.6和0.8 ...

Group 1 - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China rose to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment and economic stability [1] - Both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector showed recovery, with the production index exceeding 50%, signaling accelerated manufacturing activities [3] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, indicating a positive development trend [3] Group 2 - The production and new order indices for industries such as agricultural processing, specialized equipment, and aerospace have exceeded 54%, reflecting rapid growth in supply and demand [4] - The PMI for large enterprises has rebounded above 50%, showing a swift recovery, while small enterprises also experienced significant improvements, demonstrating the resilience of the Chinese economy [6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for May was 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, with positive performances in investment, consumption, and export-related sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].

5月份制造业采购经理指数回升 非制造业商务活动指数延续扩张 (一)企业生产加快。生产指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有 所加快。新订单指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.6个百分点。从行业看，农副食品加工、专用设备、铁路船 舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于54.0%，供需两端较快增长；纺织、化学纤维及橡 胶塑料制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工、有色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点，产需 释放不足。 (二)大型企业PMI升至临界点以上。大型企业PMI为50.7%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，重返扩张区间， 其生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.5%和52.5%，比上月上升1.7和3.0个百分点；中型企业PMI为 47.5%，比上月下降1.3个百分点，景气水平回落；小型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，景 气水平有所改善。 (三)高技术制造业延续扩张。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为50.9%，连续4个月保持在扩张区间， 延续较好发展态势；装备制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.2%和50.2%，比上月上升1.6和0.8个百分 点，景气水平均 ...