Profitability Trends - In April, industrial enterprises' profit growth improved slightly to 3% year-on-year from 2.5% in March, driven by a recovery in profitability in downstream sectors[2] - The profit margin for downstream manufacturing rose from -3.5% in March to 5.4% in April, indicating a recovery in profitability[5] - The profit margin for the automotive manufacturing sector narrowed its year-on-year decline from 28.1% in March to 2.2% in April, contributing less to the overall industrial profit decline[5] Revenue and Growth Rates - Industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed, aligning with a decrease in export growth from 12.4% in March to 8.1% in April[2] - The adjusted profit margin for industrial enterprises in April was 5.3%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1 but improved from 5.2% in March[11] - The net financing amount of government bonds and local bonds from January to May increased by 3.7 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy[3] Sector-Specific Insights - The profit growth for the computer and communication sector surged from 12.7% in March to 30.8% in April, significantly contributing to the overall profit growth[5] - Upstream industries saw a profit decline of 30.8% year-on-year in April, worsening from a 26.4% decline in March, primarily due to falling oil and commodity prices[6] - The profit growth for the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector rose to 30.5% in April, up from 22.8% in March, reflecting improved profitability[11] Market Outlook - The reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. may support profit growth in export-related industries in Q2, although long-term external demand remains uncertain[3] - The fiscal policy is expected to strengthen further, aiming to support overall demand recovery amid slowing internal consumption[3] - The leverage ratio for industrial enterprises decreased to 57.71% in April, indicating a marginal improvement in financial stability[11]

证券研究报告 宏观 4 月财政总体宽松，环比扩张高位放缓 华泰研究 4 月财政数据点评 低基数下 4 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比进一步上行 至 12.9%，显示财政政策总体维持温和宽松态势、但财政扩张动能环比季 节性放缓。一般公共预算支出增速较 3 月略回升至 5.8%，政府性基金支出 在低基数下大幅走高至 44.7%，专项债发行前置推动政府性基金支出持续回 升；4 月广义财政收入同比亦转正至 2.7%，主要受政府性基金收入大幅回 升的提振，同时一季度名义增速实现良好开局、亦可能部分体现在财政收入 改善层面。财政支出结构中，城乡社区事务、交通运输、卫生健康等支出同 比回升。4 月广义财政赤字录得 3,367 亿元、较去年同期多增 2,479 亿元、 财政政策保持宽松态势。此外，低基数下财政存款同比从 3 月的 17%上行 至 21.5%，或反映政府发债融资前置、但财政资金拨付仍待提速。 2025 年 5 月 20 日│中国内地 动态点评 往前看，5 月中美关税降级后"抢出口"窗口期可能继续支撑生产及出口增 长，但中长期外需不确定性犹存，财政政策亦有必要进一步加力、以夯实 总需求回升的基础。 ...

Tariff Reduction Overview - The recent US-China tariff reduction has decreased tariffs from 125% to 34%, with a 90-day suspension on 24% of tariffs, leaving a remaining 10% in place[2] - The overall tariff level between the US and China has dropped by 91 percentage points, with potential further negotiations on the 20% tariff related to fentanyl[3] Economic Impact - The US's total tariff on China will decrease to approximately 40%, while the global tariff will fall to 15-17% during the 90-day exemption period[5] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to lower the drag on US economic growth to 1-1.5 percentage points and may increase core inflation by 1-1.5 percentage points[7] Trade Dynamics - The short-term pressure on Chinese exports is expected to significantly decrease, potentially leading to a surge in exports during the 90-day window[8] - The global trade volume may decline by 2-4 percentage points, which is less severe than previous estimates of over 5% due to tariff impacts[5] Future Projections - The US is likely to maintain a tactical retreat on tariff issues, with the possibility of revisiting them in 1-2 quarters[14] - The trend of "de-dollarization" remains unchanged, with Asian assets, particularly those from China and Japan, expected to receive higher relative allocations[15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 145% to 30%, which exceeded market expectations and positively impacted market sentiment [1][2][7]. Tariff Reduction Details - The US reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, including a 90-day exemption on 24% of the tariffs [2][6]. - China reciprocated by canceling 91% of its retaliatory tariffs against the US [2][3]. Market Impact - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by over 3% and 5% respectively, while US stock futures surged by 3-4% [1]. - The Brent crude oil price increased by 3.6% to $66 per barrel, and gold prices fell by 3% to around $3200 per ounce due to reduced risk aversion [1]. Economic Implications - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate supply shocks in the US and demand shocks in China, potentially easing inflationary pressures in the US [7][12]. - The effective tax rate in the US is projected to decrease from 17-20% to 16-17% as a result of the tariff changes [10][25]. Future Negotiations - The success of future negotiations remains critical, as the current 30% tariff level still imposes additional costs on businesses and may suppress demand [8][18]. - The second quarter is deemed crucial for observing progress in tariff negotiations, tax reductions, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][20]. Asset Market Reactions - US and Hong Kong stock markets have recovered to pre-tariff levels, with the S&P 500 index currently valued at 20.6 times earnings, up from 19.4 times in early April [21][28]. - The Hang Seng Index has rebounded significantly, reflecting improved market sentiment, but future performance will depend on the outcomes of ongoing trade discussions [28][29]. Inflation and Growth Projections - The tariffs are estimated to raise US inflation by 1.4-1.5 percentage points, with potential GDP growth impacts of 0.8 percentage points due to increased tariff revenues [12][19]. - If tariffs are further reduced, the Federal Reserve may have opportunities to lower interest rates later in the year to support economic growth [17][25].

今日早参 2025 年 4 月 29 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：配置型外资转向流入 1 今日早参 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 上周，资金面延续平淡：1）交易型资金中，融资余额仍稳定在 1.8 万亿附 近，行业 ETF 净流出收窄，方向上，短线资金对于业绩预期改善、成长方向 关注度有所回升；2）配置型外资转向净流入，被动配置型外资是净流入主 力，主动配置型外资净流出收窄，仓位视角，4 月初，亚洲配置型外资持有 A 股仓位创 2024 年以来新高，而全球配置型基金仓位相对稳定；3）逆势资 金流入态势放缓，宽基 ETF 转向净流出，产业资本转向净减持，但回购资金 积极入市，回购预案规模仍在 2016 年以来相对高位。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-04-28 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB ...