证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 06 月 27 日 5 月工企利润同比转负，光伏发电装机累计同比增幅扩大 定期报告 ——行业景气观察（0627） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、消费服务和部分信息技术领域。上游资源 品中，工业金属价格多数上涨；中游制造领域，5 月全国太阳能发电装机容量三 个月滚动同比增幅扩大，包装专用设备、金属成形机床产量三个月滚动同比增幅 收窄。信息技术中，5 月北美 PCB 出货量同比转正，电信主营收入三个月滚动 同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，猪价上行，生猪养殖利润回暖。受出口放缓、有 效需求不足、价格拖累等因素影响，工业企业盈利边际转弱。推荐景气较高或有 改善的有色、光伏设备、家电、休闲食品、饮料乳品、半导体、运营商等。 ❑【本周关注】受出口放缓、有效需求不足、价格拖累等因素影响，工业企业盈利 边际转弱，5 月工业企业利润当月同比转负。拆分结构看，成本、费用上行，利 润率改善；价格端仍是较大拖累。大类板块盈利多有放缓，TMT 逆势改善，资源 品、必需消费、中游设备保持正增。细分行业中原材料行业盈利多数下滑，钢铁、 非金属行业同比增幅收窄，有色金属利润同比转负；装备制造业仍 ...

Group 1: Profit Recovery - In March 2025, industrial enterprises' profits showed a year-on-year increase of +2.6%, reversing the cumulative decline of -0.3% observed in January-February 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to March 2025 was +0.8%, compared to -0.3% for January-February 2025[2] - The cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to March 2025 was +3.4%, up from +2.8% in January-February 2025[2] Group 2: Driving Factors - Industrial production maintained a rapid growth rate, with the industrial added value in March 2025 increasing by +7.7% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.8 percentage points from January-February 2025[5] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved to 5.0% in March 2025, up from 4.5% in January-February 2025[6] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) year-on-year decline expanded to -2.5% in March 2025, indicating pressures from falling energy prices and weak export prices[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - Manufacturing profits increased by +7.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, while mining profits decreased by -25.5%[15] - The profit margin for the manufacturing sector rose to 3.91% in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 0.19 percentage points from January-February 2025[15] - The share of manufacturing profits in March 2025 rose to 74.1%, compared to 68.3% in the same month last year[15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming U.S. tariff policies are expected to impact domestic exports and corporate profits, creating uncertainty in the market[3] - The April Politburo meeting emphasized high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, focusing on stabilizing and expanding the domestic market[3] - The recovery of industrial profits is contingent on continued policy support and the ability to adapt to external economic changes[37]