Financial Performance - Diageo's net sales reached $49 billion, a 2% year-over-year decrease [2] - Organic sales remained flat, although better than analysts anticipated [2] - Sales in China decreased by more than 7% [3] - Organic sales in the US fell nearly 3% [3] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Consumers are trading down to cheaper alternatives, impacting premium tequila brands like Don Julio and Casamigos [3] - A clear shift down in quality consumption is observed as consumers tighten their wallets [4] - The premium spirits industry is experiencing a post-pandemic slowdown due to inflation, moderation trends, and tariffs [4] - Gen Z consumers are drinking less, influenced by fitness and health trends [6] - Economic worries affect Hispanic and non-Hispanic consumers, impacting beer sales [7] Company Outlook and Leadership - Diageo cut its guidance due to changing consumer behavior [4] - Investors are advised to await further guidance after the holiday season [5] - Diageo's CEO Deborah Crew left in July, and a replacement is yet to be named [5]

Group 1: Political Landscape - Following significant victories for Democrats in the 2025 elections, President Trump will pivot his message towards affordability, highlighting the importance of economic concerns for voters [2][8] Group 2: Company Performance - Diageo has revised its financial guidance downwards due to a notable reduction in spirit sales within China, indicating challenges for international companies in the Chinese consumer market [3][8] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Trade - China's Ministry of Commerce has reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring equal participation for foreign firms in government procurement processes, aiming to create a more equitable business environment [4][8] Group 4: Technological Collaboration - Mitsubishi Electric and Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn) have partnered to develop AI data centers, reflecting the increasing global demand for high-performance computing capabilities [5][8] Group 5: Economic Data - Spain's industrial production increased by 0.4% in September, surpassing estimates, while Switzerland's unemployment rate remained stable at 2.9% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Campari asserts that it is not affected by the ongoing tax dispute involving its controlling shareholder Lagfin, despite the seizure of shares worth €1.3 billion ($1.49 billion) by Italian authorities due to alleged tax evasion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Tax Dispute Details - Italian financial police executed a precautionary seizure of €1.29 billion of shares from Lagfin, claiming that capital gains exceeding €5.3 billion were not declared and taxed as required by law [2]. - The tax dispute has been ongoing for approximately two years and has never involved Campari Group directly [4]. Group 2: Company Statements - Campari Group clarified that the tax litigation does not concern Davide Campari-Milano or its subsidiaries, indicating no expected impact on the company [3]. - Lagfin expressed confidence in its compliance with applicable laws and regulations, asserting that it will defend itself vigorously in legal forums [4]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the news, shares of Campari, known for brands like Aperol and Courvoisier, fell by 3.54% [5].

Automotive Sector - Tesla (TSLA) experienced a dramatic decline in new registrations in Denmark, falling by 86% year-on-year in October, despite an overall increase in car sales and a high adoption rate of electric vehicles in the market, where EVs constituted over 70% of new registrations [3][9] - The Volkswagen Group is gaining significant market share in Denmark, dominating the top 10 list of new registrations [3] Commodity Markets - Aluminum prices are approaching a three-year high, with prices rising to $2,892.55 USD per tonne, representing an 11.04% increase compared to the same period last year, driven by easing US-China tensions and strong demand from sectors like renewable energy and transportation [4][9] Economic Indicators - Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October reported an annual inflation rate of 0.1%, missing the estimated 0.3% and falling from 0.2% in September, indicating persistent low inflationary pressures [5][9] - Sweden's Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing registered 55.1 in October, a slight decrease from the previous month's 55.5, suggesting a moderation in growth momentum while still indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector [6] Corporate Ratings - Goldman Sachs downgraded Remy Cointreau (RCO) to Neutral from Buy, reducing its target price from €65 to €50, citing low visibility for recovery and weak demand for cognac in the United States and China [7][9] - JP Morgan added Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, GOOG) to its US Analyst Focus List, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and raising its price target for Alphabet to $340 from $300 [8]

Group 1 - European companies are demonstrating remarkable adaptability to U.S. tariff barriers, with a Goldman Sachs portfolio of affected European stocks outperforming the market by approximately 6% in October, double the gain of the Stoxx Europe 600 index [1] - Major European firms like Hermès, Unilever, and Galderma Group AG attribute their better-than-expected performance and raised guidance to strong demand in the U.S. market [1][2] - The frequency of the term "tariff" in earnings calls is decreasing, indicating that corporate management's concerns about tariffs are diminishing [1] Group 2 - The U.S. market has become a key growth driver for many European companies, with Hermès reporting a 14.1% sales increase in its regional markets, and Unilever crediting strong North American demand for its sales performance [2] - Galderma raised its full-year guidance based on strong U.S. sales, while other companies like Haleon Plc and Stellantis also reported unexpected sales growth in North America [2] Group 3 - Companies are adapting to tariff challenges by cutting costs, adjusting production layouts, and increasing investments in the U.S. [3] - Pharmaceutical companies like Novartis and GSK are negotiating with the U.S. government for price reductions in exchange for future tariff exemptions, with AstraZeneca reaching an agreement in October [3] Group 4 - Despite overall optimism, the impact of tariffs is not uniform, with some companies like Rémy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard warning of weaker-than-expected recovery in specific markets [4] - Market sentiment is shifting towards the view that tariffs are manageable, although some analysts caution against premature conclusions regarding their impact [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Italian tax police are seizing assets worth 1.29 billion euros ($1.5 billion) from Lagfin, a Luxembourg-based holding company, as part of a fraud investigation related to tax evasion allegations against the company [1][2]. Company Summary - Lagfin is the controlling shareholder of Campari Group, which is a major player in the premium spirits industry, founded in 1860 [1][2]. - Campari Group owns several well-known brands, including its namesake red aperitif, Aperol, Grand Marnier, tequilas, and various American bourbons [3]. - Lagfin holds more than 80% of Campari's voting rights and claims that the seizure will not affect its position as the controlling shareholder [2]. Investigation Details - The investigation was initiated following a tax audit after Lagfin absorbed its Italian subsidiary, leading to allegations of tax evasion [2]. - Lagfin has stated that the investigation is linked to a tax dispute that began approximately two years ago and has not involved Campari Group directly [2]. - Lagfin asserts that it has always complied with applicable laws and regulations, including Italian tax laws, and plans to defend itself vigorously [2].

Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) 3Q25 Earnings Review Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Kweichow Moutai - **Ticker**: 600519.SS - **Reporting Period**: 3Q25 - **Report Date**: October 29, 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Total Revenue**: Rmb39.8 billion, up 0.3% YoY - **Net Profit (NP)**: Rmb19.2 billion, up 0.5% YoY - **Moutai Spirits Revenue**: Rmb34.9 billion, up 7% YoY - **Series Spirits Revenue**: Rmb4.1 billion, down 34% YoY - **Direct Sales**: Rmb15.5 billion, down 15% YoY - **Wholesale Sales**: Rmb23.5 billion, up 14% YoY - **Net Profit Margin (NPM)**: 48.3%, up 0.1 ppt YoY - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: 91.3%, up 0.2 ppt YoY Core Insights - **Sales Performance**: Moutai Spirits showed resilience with a 7% YoY growth, primarily driven by wholesale channels, while Series spirits faced a significant decline of 34% YoY due to policy impacts affecting upper mid-end spirits [1][2] - **Channel Dynamics**: Wholesale channel sales increased by 14% YoY, attributed to expedited shipments to distributors, while direct sales saw a decline of 15% YoY, with i-Moutai sales plummeting by 57% YoY [1][2] - **Direct Sales Contribution**: Direct sales accounted for 40% of total spirits sales in 3Q25, down from 43% in 2Q25 and 47% in 3Q24, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1][2] - **Customer Advances**: Customer advances decreased by 22% YoY to Rmb7.75 billion, reflecting a less demanding prepayment pace amid anti-graft policy impacts [1][2][13] Additional Observations - **Expense Management**: Selling expense ratio was 3.1%, down 1.0 ppt YoY, likely due to a higher mix of Moutai spirits which require less marketing investment [2][10] - **Wholesale Price Trends**: The wholesale price of Original case Feitian Moutai decreased to Rmb1,700, which is approximately 29% of urban employee salary, indicating improved affordability compared to previous years [7][13] - **Future Outlook**: The company is expected to adjust its growth targets, now forecasting a 4% sales growth for 2025, down from an original target of 9% [7][8] Earnings Revision - **Earnings Forecast Adjustment**: Sales and NP growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 1-2% due to weaker Series spirits and direct sales [8][24] - **Target Price**: The target price has been adjusted to Rmb1,691 from Rmb1,724 based on updated earnings estimates [8][24] Conclusion Kweichow Moutai's 3Q25 results reflect a mixed performance with strong wholesale growth offsetting declines in direct sales and Series spirits. The company is navigating policy challenges while maintaining profitability through effective expense management and strategic channel focus. Future growth targets are being recalibrated in response to market conditions.

Geopolitical Developments - Russia's air defense intercepted 193 Ukrainian drones, indicating ongoing conflict and instability in Eastern Europe [2][9] - Former U.S. President Donald Trump congratulated Javier Milei on his election victory in Argentina, reflecting a shift in the political landscape in Latin America [3][9] Analyst Ratings and Stock Movements - D.A. Davidson raised the price target for Comfort Systems USA (FIX) to $1,200 from $810, indicating a strong bullish outlook for the company [4][9] - TD Cowen lowered the price target for Diageo Corp (DEO) to 2000p from 2275p (approximately $22.75 from $24.50), citing weak demand for spirits [5][9] - Union Pacific Corp (UNP) saw a slight reduction in its price target from TD Cowen, moving to $257 from $258 [6][9] - Jefferies increased the target price for Boston Beer Company (SAM) to $245 from $225, suggesting confidence in the company's future performance [6][9] Asia Market Performance - Indonesia's Benchmark Index (JKSE) declined by 3.7%, closing at 7,965.14, reflecting broader market pressures or regional economic concerns [7][9]

US spirits producer Heritage Distilling Company is to close its tasting rooms and shift to contract production. In a statement yesterday (23 October), the company said its decision stems from a review addressing “shifting market dynamics” and “financial realities” in the beverage-alcohol industry. The closures, effective 31 December, are driven by a “challenging” tax and regulatory environment in Washington and Oregon, it added. Five retail tasting rooms in the states are set to be shuttered. Heritage ...

Core Viewpoint - Pernod Ricard anticipates sales improvement in fiscal year 2026 despite a reported 7.6% decline in first quarter sales due to weak consumer demand and destocking in China and the United States [1] Sales Performance - The company reported a 7.6% decrease in first quarter sales [1] - The decline is attributed to weak consumer demand and destocking activities in key markets such as China and the United States [1] Future Outlook - Despite the current decline, the company maintains a positive outlook for sales improvement in fiscal year 2026 [1]