Group 1 - Healthcare stocks in the U.S. are experiencing pressure due to increasing regulatory headwinds and rising costs [1]

+91 226 842 1482 With Nifty nearing 25,000, we are now back to usual business after a dramatic weekend that culminated in India-Pakistan ceasefire (an uneasy calm, but we'll take it). We had advised in our previous notes to buy the dip given instances of sharp market recovery immediately once the escalation is behind. This report marks a return from the geopolitical Nikhil Arela to the fundamental, as we dissect the earnings to see what lies ahead. We retain our nikhil.arela@bernsteinsg.com positive view on ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 150 points, down 0.39% to 41,888.10, NASDAQ down 0.83% to 18,987.25, and S&P 500 down 0.44% to 5,866.61 [1] - Utilities shares increased by 1.2%, while health care stocks decreased by 1.4% [1] Walmart Earnings - Walmart Inc. reported first-quarter FY26 sales growth of 2.5% year-on-year to $165.60 billion, slightly missing the analyst consensus estimate of $165.88 billion [2] - The retailer's adjusted EPS was 61 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 58 cents [2] Walmart Outlook - For fiscal year 2026, Walmart reaffirmed an adjusted EPS outlook of $2.50 – $2.60, compared to the $2.61 estimate, and sales guidance of $694.70 billion – $701.50 billion, versus the street view of $705.30 billion [3] Commodity Market - Oil prices fell by 2.3% to $61.73, while gold prices increased by 0.2% to $3,195.80 [6] - Silver prices decreased by 0.2% to $32.375, and copper fell by 0.4% to $4.6300 [6] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed mostly lower, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.98%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 0.79%, and China's Shanghai Composite Index down 0.68% [8] - Click Holdings Limited shares surged 270% to $1.0100 after announcing a cooperation agreement [8] - Graphjet Technology shares increased by 97% to $0.1913 following a significant stake disclosure by its Co-Founder [8] - Foot Locker, Inc. shares rose 83% to $23.52 after DICK's Sporting Goods agreed to acquire the company [8] - Healthcare Triangle, Inc. shares dropped 82% to $0.0402, and NanoVibronix, Inc. shares fell 63% to $1.4299 after announcing a public offering [8] - REE Automotive Ltd. shares decreased by 54% to $1.52 following fourth-quarter financial results and a pause in production plans [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. industrial production remained little changed in April, against market estimates of a 0.2% rise [12] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index increased by 22 points to -4.0 in May, while the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to -9.2 [12] - Initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 229,000 for the week ending May 10 [12] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.1% month-over-month in April, compared to a revised 1.7% gain in March [12] - U.S. producer prices declined by 0.5% in April, against market estimates of a 0.2% gain [12]

Group 1: AI Revolution and Market Trends - The AI revolution is confirmed to be ongoing, with significant capital expenditure programs from companies like Microsoft and Meta focusing on AI infrastructure [1] - Technology stocks with an AI focus that experienced a sell-off in early April have shown a strong recovery [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in AI ETFs - Investors may consider exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a way to gain exposure to AI, which can mitigate risks associated with individual stock ownership [2] - Three ETFs are highlighted, each approaching AI from different angles, allowing for diversified investment in the AI sector [2] Group 3: Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF (BOTZ) - The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF focuses on companies embedding AI into the physical world, particularly in industrial and healthcare applications [3] - Top holdings include NVIDIA and Intuitive Surgical, each with over 8% weight in the fund [4] - The BOTZ ETF has recovered most of its losses from early April and is nearing its 200-day simple moving average [5] Group 4: Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (DTCR) - The Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF focuses on AI infrastructure, with over 50% of its exposure in real estate investment trusts (REITs) [7][8] - The fund has approximately $230 million in assets under management and a low expense ratio of 0.50% [8] Group 5: Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) - The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF targets companies in the generative AI space, featuring major technology names and a focus on software [10] - This fund is the youngest of the three, launched in 2023, and uses a proprietary methodology for company selection [11] - The expense ratio for this actively managed fund is around 0.75% [11]

Core Insights - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is a valuable tool for options traders, measuring realized volatility against expectations priced into options over the past year [2][3] - A high SVS indicates that a stock has realized greater volatility than what its options have priced in, making it a potential target for options trading [3][4] - The analysis highlights stocks with consistently high SVS scores, suggesting they are more likely to yield positive returns for options traders [4][9] Summary by Category SVS Overview - SVS is calculated using hypothetical at-the-money straddle trades held until expiration, generating around 250 data points annually [2] - The scoring system combines average straddle return (40%), percentage of positive returns (40%), and percentage of straddles that doubled (20%) into a score from 0 to 100 [3] High-Performing Stocks - Stocks like Moderna Inc (MRNA) and Mondelez International (MDLZ) have high SVS scores, indicating they have consistently provided positive returns despite recent price declines [4][9] - The table of stocks with SVS above 90 shows that several sectors, including pharmaceuticals and food producers, have performed well [5] Consistent Positive Straddles - The analysis identifies stocks with the highest percentage of positive straddles, including MDLZ and MRNA, which have shown strong performance metrics [8] - The data suggests that stocks with a history of positive straddle returns are likely to continue attracting options traders [9] Growth Stocks and Risk Appetite - Risky growth stocks like HIMS and SoundHound AI (SOUN) are highlighted as potential targets for options traders looking for high returns, despite their volatility [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance when selecting stocks for options trading, especially in a post-earnings season environment [11]

Core Insights - Hims & Hers Health experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping from $70 per share in February 2025 to a precarious position a few months later, indicating potential challenges within the telehealth sector [1]. Company Overview - Hims & Hers Health was previously considered a leading company in the telehealth industry, reflecting its strong market presence and investor interest during its peak [1]. Market Context - The telehealth sector has faced volatility, as evidenced by Hims & Hers Health's dramatic stock price fluctuations, which may suggest broader industry challenges or shifts in investor sentiment [1].

Core Viewpoint - Hims & Hers Health Inc. is positioned as a potential disruptor in the healthcare sector, combining traditional medicine with telehealth innovations, leading to significant user growth and financial performance [2][4][10]. Company Performance - The company reported active users reaching 2.4 million, reflecting a net growth rate of 38% over the past year [5]. - Hims & Hers achieved a net revenue growth of 111% year-over-year, totaling $586 million [6]. - The gross profit margin stands at an attractive 73%, allowing for substantial capital retention from sales [7]. - Free cash flow reached a record $50.1 million, nearly five times the previous year's $11.9 million [8]. - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is reported at 24.6%, indicating strong potential for long-term value compounding [9]. Market Dynamics - The company secured a collaboration deal with Novo Nordisk, enhancing its revenue streams and industry recognition [10]. - Institutional investors contributed $739 million in capital over the past quarter, with an additional $86 million in the current quarter, signaling strong market confidence [11]. - Approximately 33.3% of Hims & Hers shares are held in short positions, creating potential for a "short squeeze" if the stock rallies [12]. - Analysts may adjust their valuations and ratings in response to the company's growth, potentially leading to upward pressure on the stock price [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, revenue increased by 9% and adjusted operating cash flow increased by 32% compared to the previous year. However, for 2025, revenue growth is expected to be modest at 1% with a 6% increase in adjusted operating cash flow [9][10] - The company reported a significant increase in adjusted operating cash flow from $142 million in 2021 to $278 million in 2024, marking a growth of approximately 95% [11] - As of March 31, the company had over $1.1 billion in cash and marketable securities against approximately $865 million in debt, indicating strong liquidity [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kaplan's revenue increased by 7% in 2024, with adjusted operating cash flow rising by 13% [12] - Graham Healthcare Group's consolidated revenue grew by 33% to $611 million in 2024, with adjusted operating cash flow increasing by 67% to $75 million [24] - The Automotive Group's revenue grew by 11% in 2024, but adjusted operating cash flow was flat compared to 2023 [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The revenue mix of the company has evolved, with significant growth in manufacturing, healthcare, and automotive sectors, which collectively grew from $1.33 billion in 2021 to approximately $2.56 billion in 2024 [10] - The IG therapy market is valued at over $13 billion and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8%, with a significant portion of infusions being administered at home [46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on organic growth, selective acquisitions, and new partnerships within the healthcare sector, particularly through Graham Healthcare Group [49] - The management emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and economic downturns [52][54] - The company is committed to improving operational efficiencies and expanding its service offerings in home health and hospice care [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the operating environment, noting potential challenges from political advertising cycles affecting revenue comparisons in 2025 [9] - The management highlighted the resilience of U.S. businesses in adapting to tariff impacts and economic uncertainties, indicating a focus on innovation and efficiency [51][63] - There is an acknowledgment of macroeconomic risks, particularly the potential for a recession impacting most business units, except for Kaplan and Graham Healthcare [64] Other Important Information - The company redeemed a significant portion of its mandatorily redeemable noncontrolling interest, paying $205 million in cash, which resulted in a $66.4 million interest expense [17] - The management team is actively monitoring tariff policies, especially concerning prescription drug imports, which could impact operations at CSI Pharmacy [57] Q&A Session Summary Question: Opportunities in Home Health Care in Michigan, Illinois, and Pennsylvania - Management noted that there is continued growth potential in these states due to alignment with health system partners and increasing demand for home care services [70][74] Question: Trends in Kaplan's International Operations - The macro trends for international education are positive, with a billion people expected to enter the global middle class, increasing demand for education [77] Question: Capital Reinvestment Opportunities - The company has primarily focused on share repurchases as the best use of capital, with recent redemptions of noncontrolling interests also seen as a strategic move [79] Question: Framebridge Expansion and Operational Constraints - Management indicated improvements in store payback models and emphasized the importance of careful site selection and operational processes to ensure quality service during expansion [83][86]

Core Viewpoint - OPKO Health, Inc. reported a narrower loss per share of 10 cents in Q1 2025 compared to a loss of 12 cents in the same period last year, but this was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 6 cents per share [1][13] Revenue Summary - OPKO Health's total revenues for Q1 2025 were $149.9 million, reflecting a 13.7% decrease year over year and missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.9% [1][2] - Revenues from the Diagnostics segment amounted to $102.8 million, down 18.9% year over year, primarily due to lower clinical test volume [4] - In the Pharmaceuticals segment, revenues from products declined 8.7% year over year to $34.8 million, impacted by unfavorable foreign currency exchange and decreased Rayaldee sales [5] - Revenues from the transfer of intellectual property increased by 41.4% year over year to $12.3 million, driven by a significant rise in BARDA contract revenues [6] Margin Analysis - Gross profit increased by 1.4% year over year to $42.6 million, with gross margin expanding by 424 basis points to 28.4% [7] - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased by 15.8% year over year to $59.1 million, while research and development expenses rose by 40.6% to $30.8 million [7][8] Financial Position - OPKO Health ended Q1 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $436 million, slightly up from $431.9 million at the end of 2024 [9] Guidance - The company revised its 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $675 million to $685 million, down from a previous range of $675 million to $700 million [11] - Product sales are expected to be between $165 million and $175 million, while other revenues are now projected to be between $75 million and $85 million [12] Recent Developments - OPKO Health signed an agreement with Labcorp to sell oncology-related clinical testing assets and entered a collaboration with Entera Bio for an oral GLP-1/glucagon tablet candidate [15] - ModeX Therapeutics Inc., a subsidiary of OPKO, is advancing its immuno-oncology and immunology portfolio with four clinical candidates [15]

Core Viewpoint - 3M Co. has demonstrated solid performance in Q1 2025, showcasing its reliability as an asset during market uncertainties, with a focus on its diverse product offerings and growth potential [1]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, 3M reported earnings-per-share (EPS) of $1.88, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.11, and revenues grew 1.1% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, surpassing expectations of $5.76 billion [4]. - The operating margin improved by 220 basis points to 23.5%, with organic growth at 1.5% [4]. - The company launched 62 new products in Q1, a 60% increase year-over-year, with plans for 215 new products in 2025 and over 1,000 in the next three years [5]. Market Position and Technical Analysis - 3M stock remains above key moving averages, maintaining a bullish trend since the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average a year ago [2]. - A bullish Golden Cross pattern was triggered on April 18, 2024, indicating strong support levels [9]. - The stock has shown resilience at the $124.65 support level, bouncing back multiple times during market selloffs [10]. Diversification and Economic Resilience - 3M's diversified portfolio includes over 100,000 products across various industries, which helps mitigate risks associated with economic downturns [6]. - The company benefits from a mix of cyclical and stable product lines, allowing it to adapt to changing consumer demands [7]. International Sales and Currency Impact - Approximately 45% of 3M's revenue, around $4 billion, comes from international markets, making it sensitive to currency fluctuations [12]. - A weaker US dollar can enhance international sales volumes, potentially turning currency headwinds into tailwinds in Q2 2025 [13]. Risks and Challenges - Trade wars and tariffs are anticipated to impact operating profits, particularly in the consumer products division, with management forecasting potential losses of $25 million to $50 million [14][15]. - The company has 90 days of inventory to manage tariff impacts, but challenges may arise once this inventory is depleted [14].