US stocks retreated on Tuesday as worries about an AI bubble and the broader US economy continued to set markets on edge, with a pivotal Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report and shutdown-delayed jobs data on the horizon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell nearly 0.8%, coming off the worst three-day run for the blue-chip benchmark since April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) pulled back roughly 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was roughly 0.3% lower, eyeing its fourth consecutive losing session. ...

Market Overview - US stocks retreated due to concerns about an AI bubble and the broader US economy, with significant earnings reports and delayed jobs data on the horizon [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1.1%, losing more than 500 points, marking its worst three-day performance since April [2] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined nearly 1.4%, while the S&P 500 was roughly 1% lower, facing its fourth consecutive losing session [2] Cryptocurrency and Economic Indicators - Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing all gains for the year, which alarmed Asian markets and contributed to a sell-off [3] - Japanese stocks experienced their worst loss since April, and 10-year Treasury yields decreased amid rising concerns about the AI bubble and the US economy [3] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's third-quarter results are anticipated, as investors reassess the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally; Nvidia's stock fell as much as 3% [4] - Other major tech companies, including Amazon and Microsoft, also saw declines of around 3% [4] Economic Data and Consumer Insights - The upcoming September jobs report is expected to influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, following a delay in official data releases due to a US shutdown [5] - ADP data indicated a slowdown in job losses in the private sector, while earnings reports from retailers like Home Depot, which cut its full-year profit guidance, are expected to provide insights into consumer strength ahead of the holiday season [6]

Market Overview - US stock futures declined, indicating a potential return to losses, influenced by a slump in bitcoin and upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia and delayed jobs data [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell approximately 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures also decreased by 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.4% [1] Nvidia Earnings Report - Nvidia's stock dropped about 2% ahead of its fiscal third-quarter results, which are anticipated to provide insights into the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally [3] - Investors are concerned about stretched valuations, softening market breadth, and increasing AI-related depreciation, alongside a rise in Big Tech debt issuance [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Key economic data points are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's future decisions, with rate-cut odds significantly reduced to about 40% from over 90% a month ago [4] - The Fed's October meeting minutes and the September jobs report are set to be released, which may impact market expectations [4] Retail Earnings Insights - Major retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are scheduled to report earnings this week, which will provide insights into consumer strength ahead of the holiday season [5] Cryptocurrency Market Impact - Bitcoin's decline below $90,000 has raised alarms in the market, leading to fears of a negative selling spiral among leveraged investors [5][6] - The cryptocurrency fell as much as 2.8%, erasing all its gains for the year, which contributed to a significant drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index by over 2% [6] Asian Market Reaction - Asian stock markets experienced declines following the drop in US tech stocks, with almost every market in the region losing ground [6][11] Baidu's Performance - Baidu's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, leading to a 2% increase in its stock, driven by strong growth in its cloud business amid a recovering advertising market [9]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed signs of recovery after initial losses, influenced by a recent slump in bitcoin and upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia and delayed jobs data [1][2] - The S&P 500 futures were down 0.2%, recovering from a 0.8% drop earlier, while Dow Jones and Nasdaq futures also improved slightly from their premarket lows [2] Cryptocurrency Impact - Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing all gains for the year, which caused significant alarm in Asian markets, leading to the worst loss for Japanese stocks since April [3][10] - The sell-off in bitcoin has raised concerns about potential negative selling pressure from leveraged investors, contributing to a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets [9][12] Economic Indicators - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is critical as investors reassess the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally, with increased scrutiny on Big Tech's debt issuance related to AI infrastructure [5] - The September jobs report, delayed due to a US government shutdown, is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, with current market pricing indicating a 46% chance of rate cuts [6] Retail Sector Insights - Retail earnings reports are anticipated to provide insights into consumer strength ahead of the holiday season, with Home Depot lowering its full-year profit guidance after missing earnings estimates [7] - PDD Holdings reported a 9% revenue increase, although its stock fell 2% due to aggressive pricing strategies, while Amer Sports saw a 6% rise in stock after raising its full-year guidance [8][13]

分组1 - The stock market is entering a week filled with significant earnings reports and economic data, following a week of volatility where all major indexes ended in the red, particularly the Nasdaq Composite which fell nearly 2% [1][2] - Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report is anticipated to be a major event, with analysts expecting revenue to reach approximately $54 billion, an increase from $46.7 billion in the previous quarter [4][5] - Nvidia is viewed as a key indicator for the AI sector, and there are high expectations for strong earnings and guidance, especially after CEO Jensen Huang announced $500 billion in orders for 2025 and 2026 [5][6] 分组2 - Major retailers such as Home Depot, Target, and Walmart are also set to report their third-quarter earnings this week, contributing to the overall market focus [6] - The September jobs report is scheduled for release on Thursday, providing crucial insights into the labor market from two months prior, which is expected to influence market assessments regarding future Fed rate cuts [9][10] - Investors are particularly eager for the jobs data as it has been absent since the government operations were halted in October, making this release critical for evaluating economic conditions heading into 2026 [10]

Economic Overview - The K-shaped economy indicates that the top 10-15% of income earners are thriving, while the bottom 50% are struggling, highlighting a significant disparity in economic recovery [2][4] - The cumulative rise of inflation since the 2020 recession has exceeded 25%, which is a critical issue for the lower-income demographic [4][18] Consumer Behavior - Retailers like Target are expected to provide insights into the spending habits of lower-income consumers, particularly how inflation affects their purchasing decisions [6][7] - Target has emphasized that the primary challenge for lower-income consumers is not job loss but rather the rising prices of essential goods [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Current predictions regarding a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with probabilities dropping from 70% to around 43% recently [10][11] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process appears to be increasingly influenced by a broader consensus among its members rather than solely by the Chair's perspective [12][14] Inflation and Economic Policy - There is ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding whether recent inflationary pressures are transitory or indicative of a more persistent issue [16][18] - The Fed is grappling with questions about labor supply and the neutral rate for the funds rate, which complicates their policy decisions [17]

Blue-chip stocks saw a third day of losses on Monday as Wall Street's slump continued amid doubts about interest rate cuts, as investors looked ahead to high-stakes Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and the delayed September jobs report. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) erased modest gains to fall over 0.8%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also slipped around 1.2%, or more than 550 points. Wall Street is already getting set for Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings on Wedn ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the retail sector heading into the holiday season is bleak, primarily due to rising inflation impacting consumer health, especially among low-income consumers [1][3]. Retail Earnings Outlook - Major retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are set to report earnings, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [1][4]. - Five Below is identified as the most likely retailer to exceed consensus expectations in its upcoming earnings report, benefiting from macro tailwinds and company-specific improvements [5]. - Target is expected to miss expectations due to ongoing struggles with consumer perception, being viewed as a "nice to have" rather than a necessity [6]. - Walmart is anticipated to report inline results, but the current stock valuation suggests limited upside potential [6][7]. Home Improvement Sector - Home Depot and Lowe's are experiencing muted performance, with expectations for uninspiring results in their upcoming reports [9]. - The performance of these companies is largely driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates and housing turnover, which will influence home improvement demand [9]. Costco's Position - Costco's earnings report is scheduled for the second week of December, with expectations for better performance due to its focus on middle to high-income consumers, who are faring better than low-income consumers [10].

With the federal government having finally ended its shutdown last week, this week we can get back to the business of examining economic reports. Chief of these is expected to be the U.S. Employment Report due Thursday morning. Where we last left off, an average of only +29K new jobs created over the past four months was making the Fed nervous about an unraveling labor market, which helped them decide to cut interest rates even as inflation metrics were ticking back up.Compare this to the previous four-mont ...

Market Trend Analysis - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has shown an "orderly" upward trend, with a channel connecting higher lows since May 23 and higher highs since early July, indicating bullish control [1][2] - Recent price action has become less orderly, with a slight close below the bull channel and significant intraday movements, but the SPX managed to close above the 50-day moving average [2][8] Earnings Season and Economic Data - The earnings season has concluded, and the SPX is up 23 points from its October 1 close of 6,711, despite the government shutdown from October 1 to November 13 [4] - The highest close during the shutdown was 179 points above the October 1 level, while the lowest was 159 points below, indicating volatility but little net directional movement [5] Technical Indicators - The SPX is currently wedged between support from the 50-day moving average and previous intraday lows in the 6,630-6,650 range, with the lower boundary of the bull channel around 6,760 [9][8] - The flattening of the 30-day moving average suggests potential resistance at the 6,760 level, which is also 10% above the February 2025 high [8] Upcoming Events and Expectations - Key upcoming events include Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and reports from major retailers such as Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT) [9] - Economic reports on employment and inflation are expected in the next two weeks, which will influence the Federal Open Market Committee's decisions regarding potential rate cuts [10] Market Sentiment - There has been a decline in expectations for a rate cut, with a 44% probability assigned at Friday's close, down from 67% the previous week, yet the SPX has remained resilient [11] - The optimism among option buyers has decreased, with the 10-day buy-to-open put/call volume ratio rising from 0.42 to 0.51, indicating lower expectations despite stable stock levels [12][13] Options Market Dynamics - Significant open interest in puts and calls around the 6,700 and 6,750 strikes suggests potential pinning action, with the 6,750 strike acting as resistance [16]