Market Overview - Benchmark indices opened positively, with Nifty 50 starting at 25,167.65 and trading at 25,259.70, up 77.90 points or 0.31 percent [1] - Sensex opened at 82,075.45 and was at 82,425.16, higher by 253.06 points or 0.31 percent, driven by renewed investor confidence from India-US trade negotiations [1] Trade Negotiations - Prime Minister Narendra Modi's conversation with US President Donald Trump reaffirmed a commitment to advancing the India-US trade pact, with optimism for a trade deal by November expressed by Commerce & Industry Minister Piyush Goyal [2] Institutional Investments - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers with purchases of ₹1,308.16 crore on October 9, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) had net purchases of ₹864.36 crore [3] - FIIs have been buyers in the cash market for the last three trading days [3] Earnings Reports - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported a 1.4 percent rise in net profit to ₹12,075 crore and revenue growth of 3.7 percent, with a total contract value of $10 billion [4] - TCS aims to become the world's largest AI-led technology services company, positioning itself at the forefront of the global AI race [4] Stock Performance - Banking stocks led the market rally, with State Bank of India rising 1.75 percent to ₹877.20 and Axis Bank advancing 1.18 percent to ₹1,181.20 [5] - Power Grid Corporation and Adani Ports also saw gains, while ONGC added 1.19 percent to ₹246.29 [5] Sector Performance - Metal stocks declined, with Tata Steel dropping 1.54 percent to ₹173.70 and JSW Steel falling 1.25 percent to ₹1,160.50 [6] - Eicher Motors and Max Healthcare also experienced declines [6] Market Trends - The Nifty 50 broke past a three-day hurdle at 25,220, indicating bullish momentum, with immediate resistance seen at 25,300–25,400 [7] - Bank Nifty showed strength, with support in the 55,900–55,800 band and resistance near 56,500–56,600 [7] Global Factors - Global sentiment was supported by the GAZA peace accord, which reduced geopolitical risk [8] - There are indications of a trade deal between the US and India, with India 'rebalancing' its oil purchases [8] IPO Market - The primary market remained buoyant, with the LG Electronics IPO getting oversubscribed 54 times, adding liquidity to the market [8] Commodities - Crude oil futures traded marginally lower, with October futures at ₹5,471, up 0.16 percent [9]

Core Viewpoint - Commercial Metals (CMC) is anticipated to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $1.32 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +46.7%, with revenues projected at $2.07 billion, up 3.6% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.63% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a positive Earnings ESP of +0.76% for Commercial Metals, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook, but the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and this rank suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Commercial Metals was expected to post earnings of $0.85 per share but only achieved $0.74, resulting in a surprise of -12.94% [13]. - The company has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters, indicating a trend of underperformance [14]. Conclusion - While the potential for an earnings beat exists, other factors may also influence stock movement, and it is essential to consider the broader context beyond just earnings results [15][17].

Financial Performance & Targets - voestalpine Group's revenue target for 2024/25 is €157 billion[4] - The group aims for an EBITDA of €13 billion by 2024/25[4] - The group aims for an EBIT of €455 million by 2024/25[4] - The company targets a payout ratio of 30% of earnings per share (EPS) with a minimum dividend of EUR 040 per share[41] Strategic Focus & Growth - The company focuses on differentiation in metals production and growth in processing[20] - The company aims to expand its product range with existing customers and globalize successful businesses[25] - The company is committed to maintaining a solid credit profile with an implied BBB rating[46] Decarbonization Strategy - The company aims to have 65% of its business decarbonized by 2027, transitioning from 5 blast furnaces to 3 blast furnaces and 2 EAFs[27] - The company plans to reach 80% decarbonization by 2030-2035 with 1 blast furnace and 4 EAFs[27] - The company targets 100% decarbonization by 2035-2050 using 4 EAFs, 1 EAF/Smelter, and breakthrough technologies[27] Divisional Performance (BY 2024/25) - Steel Division revenue is €57991 million with an EBITDA of €7438 million and an EBITDA margin of 128%[94] - High Performance Metals Division revenue is €31822 million with an EBITDA of €830 million and an EBITDA margin of 26%[133] - Metal Engineering Division revenue is €41679 million with an EBITDA of €4611 million and an EBITDA margin of 111%[168] - Metal Forming Division revenue is €31251 million with an EBITDA of €1693 million and an EBITDA margin of 54%[200]

Economic Overview - Russia's nominal GDP stands at $2.2 trillion, comparable to its level in 2013, prior to the annexation of Crimea [1] - The economy contracted by 1.4% in 2022 but is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, with a forecasted slowdown to 1.0% growth this year [8] Sector Performance - Non-military sectors of the economy have contracted by 5.4% since the beginning of the year, indicating significant economic strain [2] - The construction industry is facing a downturn, with cement consumption expected to fall below 60 million tonnes, a level not seen since the COVID pandemic [5] Labor Market Adjustments - Major companies, including Cemros, Russian Railways, and GAZ, have implemented a four-day workweek to manage labor costs amid economic challenges [6][12] - The unemployment rate has reached a record low of 2.1%, despite the economic difficulties [8] Government Intervention - The Russian government has been compelled to provide support across various sectors, including coal and metals, to prevent mass layoffs [17] - In previous economic downturns, state support was extended to major employers to mitigate discontent in industrial towns [16] Industry-Specific Challenges - The coal sector is particularly affected, with reports of 19,000 layoffs in the first half of 2025 and warnings of potential bankruptcies among coal enterprises [18][19] - The steel industry is also under pressure, with discussions of a moratorium on bankruptcies and indications of workforce reductions without mass layoffs [21][22]

Stock markets rebounded on Thursday with the benchmark Sensex climbing 398 points following buying in IT firms and blue-chip Reliance Industries amid foreign fund inflows.Photograph: Shailesh Andrade/ReutersThe 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 398.44 points or 0.49 per cent to settle at 82,172.10.During the day, it jumped 474.07 points or 0.57 per cent to 82,247.73.The 50-share NSE Nifty jumped by 135.65 points or 0.54 per cent to 25,181.80. IT shares such as HCL Tech, TCS, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra gained ahea ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.73%, while the Northbound 50 Index fell by 0.18% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,718 billion yuan, an increase of 4,746 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,100 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest gains included precious metals, controllable nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, energy metals, wind power equipment, steel, and storage chips [1] - Conversely, the sectors that saw the largest declines were film and television, tourism and hotels, liquor, and duty-free shops [1] Notable Stocks - The surge in international gold prices led to a collective explosion in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, with stocks such as Xingye Silver Tin, Yunnan Copper, Shandong Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Zhaojin Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector also performed strongly, with stocks like Western Superconducting, Guoguang Electric, and Haheng Huaton reaching the daily limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw a rebound in the afternoon, with stocks such as Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Ruilin hitting the daily limit [1] - Other sectors like storage chips, wind power equipment, and steel also showed performance during the trading session [1] Declining Stocks - The film and television sector experienced significant declines, with stocks such as Bona Film, Hengdian Film, and China Film hitting the daily limit down [1] - The tourism and hotel sector also performed poorly, with stocks like Caesar Travel, Tianfu Cultural Tourism, and Xiyu Tourism showing the largest declines [1]

Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a "first phase" peace deal between Israel and Hamas on October 8th, 2025, which included hostage releases and an Israeli troop withdrawal, typically expected to boost markets [2] - The immediate market reaction saw oil prices, specifically the December Brent crude contract, dip by 1.1% before recovering, closing 43¢/bl lower than the previous settlement [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 closed at a record high for the 33rd time in 2025 on October 8th, buoyed by a tech rebound, despite the peace announcement [3] - Following President Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, the S&P 500 plummeted 4.8%, erasing over $2 trillion in value, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,679 points (4%) on April 3rd and an additional 2,231 points (5.5%) on April 4th [5] Tariff Impacts - President Trump's trade policies have led to significant market volatility, with a universal 10% duty on all imports escalating to 34% for China, 20% for the EU, and 24% for Japan [5] - A 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9th, 2025, triggered a "historic rebound," allowing the S&P 500 to recover $4 trillion in value [6] Sector-Specific Movements - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada managed to rise by 150.27 points (0.50%) on October 8th, despite facing 35% U.S. tariffs on various exports [8] - Healthcare stocks in the S&P 500 saw an uptick following Trump's comments linking ACA subsidies to the government shutdown, showcasing the market's sensitivity to policy hints [11] Company-Specific Insights - The stock symbol DJT for Trump Media & Technology Group has shown a negative one-year return, with a market cap of $4.89 billion and a trailing P/E of 194.11, despite only $3.4 million in revenue over the past 12 months [9] - On April 9th, 2025, a post by Trump on Truth Social led to a 20% surge in DJT stock, highlighting the connection between Trump's social media activity and market movements [10] Global Trade Dynamics - The EU announced on October 8th that it would double its steel tariffs to 50%, mirroring U.S. levels, which positively impacted shares of ArcelorMittal [13] - India faced a significant increase in tariffs, with rates hiked to 50% in late August 2025, leading to a decline in the Nifty 50 and a weakened rupee [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Greater China Materials** industry, highlighting a **liquidity-driven bull market** supported by **supply disruptions** that are positively impacting commodity prices. The preference is for **gold, copper, and aluminum equities** in this environment [1][4][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Forecasts**: - **Aluminum**: Morgan Stanley forecasts $2,659 per ton for 2H2025, which is 6% higher than consensus. For CY2026, the forecast is $2,750, 8% above consensus [10]. - **Copper**: Expected price of $10,047 per ton for 2H2025, 5% above consensus, and $10,650 for CY2026, 9% above consensus [10]. - **Gold**: Projected at $3,719 per ounce for 2H2025, 9% above consensus, and $4,400 for CY2026, 34% above consensus [10]. - **Steel Demand Drivers**: - The **China Steel Demand Drivers** for 2025 include: - **Machinery**: 30% - **Infrastructure**: 17% - **Residential Property**: 14% - **Auto**: 9% [17][19]. - **Copper Consumption Index**: The **China Copper Consumption Index** indicates a significant reliance on sectors such as **Power (47%)**, **White Goods (15%)**, and **Auto (10%)** [21][22]. - **Aluminum Demand Breakdown**: The **China aluminum demand** is driven by: - **Property**: 22% - **Passenger Vehicles**: 20% - **Grid Investment**: 11% [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Infrastructure Spending**: - Infrastructure spending has partially offset the slowdown in new property starts, with a **5.4% YoY increase** in infrastructure spending for the first eight months of 2025 [35][55]. - **Weekly Shipments**: - Weekly cement and rebar shipments in China are being monitored, indicating trends in demand and supply dynamics [55][56]. - **Market Sentiment**: - The overall sentiment in the materials sector remains **attractive**, with Morgan Stanley's research indicating potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies [4][5]. - **Analyst Team**: The call featured insights from a team of equity analysts at Morgan Stanley, emphasizing the importance of their research in investment decision-making [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Greater China Materials industry and its current market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Condition**: A liquidity-driven bull market is ongoing, supported by supply disruptions, which is positively impacting commodity prices [1][2][17] Key Insights Commodity Preferences - **Preferred Commodities**: Gold, copper, and aluminum equities are favored in the current market environment due to their strong performance and demand [1][2][17] - **Gold Outlook**: Anticipated further upside in gold prices driven by a weakening USD, strong ETF buying, and central bank purchases, alongside safe haven demand amid uncertainty [2][18] - **Copper Supply Dynamics**: Supply disruptions are expected to widen the global copper supply deficit in 2026, with a supportive macro environment of abundant liquidity and a weak dollar [19] - **Aluminum Margins**: Higher margins for aluminum smelters are projected due to capped capacity in China and limited ability to restart idled capacity in the US/Europe [20] Demand and Supply Trends - **Retail Demand**: Retail growth in autos and home appliances has weakened, attributed to a high base and early demand from trade-in subsidies [3] - **Construction Activity**: Property sales and construction remain subdued, with expectations for a major policy pivot requiring endorsement at the 4th Plenary Session [3] - **Anti-involution Policies**: Industries such as coal, cement, glass, and steel are facing production controls to curb overproduction, with specific guidelines issued to stabilize prices [4][21] Specific Sector Insights - **Cement Industry**: Policies to control overproduction are expected to lead to a 20% capacity exit during 2025-26, benefiting industry leaders through consolidation [21] - **Late-cycle Building Materials**: Demand for late-cycle building materials is expected to remain soft, although improvements may arise from secondary home sales and government programs [22] - **Lithium Demand**: Strong demand for lithium is noted, with potential supply disruptions due to resource reclassification at several mines [23] Price Forecasts - **Commodity Price Projections**: - **Gold**: Expected to rise to $4,400/oz by 2026, a 33% increase from current estimates [15] - **Copper**: Projected to reach $10,650/ton by 2026, reflecting a 9% increase [16] - **Aluminum**: Anticipated price of $2,750/ton by 2026, an 8% increase [16] Investment Recommendations - **Overweight Stocks**: CMOC, Hongqiao, Chalco, Anhui Conch, CNBM, and Baosteel are highlighted as preferred investment choices in the materials sector [2][17] - **Underweight Stocks**: Companies such as China Coal, Asia Cement, and Yancoal are recommended for underweight positions due to unfavorable market conditions [14] Additional Considerations - **Uranium Market**: Strong price momentum is expected in uranium, supported by major investment vehicles and contracting from utilities [24] - **Rare Earths**: Prices are anticipated to remain strong due to good downstream demand and tightened supply-side controls in China [25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Greater China materials industry.

Core Viewpoint - Market players are showing strong confidence in Cleveland-Cliffs, leading to a significant upsizing of a planned debt issue, which positively impacted the company's stock price, rising by 9% compared to the S&P 500's 0.6% increase [1]. Debt Issuance - Cleveland-Cliffs announced a new issue of senior unsecured guaranteed notes, initially set at $200 million, maturing in 2034, with an interest rate of just under 7.63% [3][4]. - The company later increased the total principal amount to $275 million, with an issuance price of approximately 102.8% of the principal, resulting in an implied yield of slightly below 7% for investors [4]. Financial Context - The steel industry typically requires substantial debt financing due to the high costs associated with owning and operating steel production facilities. Cleveland-Cliffs' long-term debt has exceeded $7.7 billion, largely due to its acquisition of Stelco in 2024 [5][6]. - The new debt issuance, while relatively small compared to total debt, indicates investor confidence in Cleveland-Cliffs' ability to meet its financial obligations [6].