红枣产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10490 | 160 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 132308 | -5271 -35 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -20196 | 2665 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8912 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1448 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.2 | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.74 | -0.06 广东红枣 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 2.36%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from last week, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. As the weather gets hotter and seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, the demand for jujubes is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season jujube trees are in the critical fruit - setting period, and their growth is relatively good. The production reduction may be less than expected. It is expected that the price of the main jujube contract will be weakly volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits. Future trading should focus on weather impacts and the consumer end [8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of about 2.36% [8][11]. - **Market Outlook**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. Due to seasonal factors, jujube demand is weak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The price of the main contract is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the second - crop flowers and fruits [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Focus on weather impacts and the consumer end [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures dropped by about 2.36% this week [11]. - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 22,674 lots [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 8,971 [18]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 1020 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei gray jujube spot price and the main jujube futures contract was - 630 yuan/ton [22]. - **New - Season Purchase Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the purchase prices of jujube bulk goods in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Class Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - class gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.3 yuan/jin and 4.35 yuan/jin respectively [30]. - **Superior - Grade Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the wholesale prices of superior - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 9.71 yuan/kg and 9.8 yuan/kg respectively [34]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Inventory**: According to Mysteel's data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase, showing a slight decline this week [38]. - **Supply - Side - Production**: The jujube crop is growing well, and it is expected that the production in the 2024/25 season will recover [43]. - **Demand - Side - Export**: In May 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,229,227 kg, a 5.61% year - on - year decline. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 15,350,567 kg, a 16.99% cumulative year - on - year increase [47]. - **Demand - Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the order volume of the BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao brand was not traded [51]. 4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is given [53]. - **Stock Market - Haoxiangni**: A chart of Haoxiangni's price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific data or analysis is given [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the weather gets hotter and seasonal fresh fruits come onto the market, they replace tonic products like red dates, leading to a seasonal off - peak in red date demand and slow inventory digestion [2]. - The new - season crops are at a critical fruiting stage, and the market focuses on the weather in the production areas. Currently, the growth of jujube trees is relatively good, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The main price of red dates has dropped in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 10,280 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period [2]. - The position of the main futures contract for red dates is 132,979 lots, a decrease of 1,700 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for red dates is - 13,720 lots, an increase of 3,085 lots [2]. - The number of red date warehouse receipts is 9,122 sheets [2]. - The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts for red dates is 1,448 sheets, a decrease of 146 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of general red dates in Kashgar is 0 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.3 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.35 yuan/jin [2]. - The price of general red dates in Alar is 0 yuan/kg; the price of general red dates in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg [2]. - The price of super - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg; the price of super - grade red dates in Hebei is 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the price of super - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg [2]. - The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 9.8 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons; the planting area of red dates is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,430 tons, a decrease of 90 tons compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 72.28% [2]. - The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume of red dates is 15,350,567 kg, an increase of 2,229,227 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan [2]. - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 15, the temperature in Kashgar region was between 21 - 30°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management such as watering and fertilizing. Jujube trees were gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The recent temperature was suitable for fruit setting, and attention should be paid to the growth situation and weather changes in the production areas [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Consumption is in the off - season, and the high inventory of old fruits suppresses prices. The production area is in the fruit - setting period, the current growth of jujube trees is relatively good, but the yield is difficult to determine, and attention should be paid to the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujube is 10,580 yuan/ton, with a change of 155; the position of the main contract is 138,887 lots, with a change of 1,979; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,335 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,881, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,745 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of jujube in different regions vary. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashi is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.3 yuan/jin, and the unified - grade jujube price in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week, a 1.57% week - on - week decrease and a 71.08% year - on - year increase. The monthly jujube export volume is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg, and the cumulative export volume is 15,350,567 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - In the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi, the jujube wholesale price is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8. The cumulative sales volume of jujubes of Hao Xiangni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year jujube production of Hao Xiangni is - 34.59% [2]. Industry News - On July 10, there was moderate to heavy rain in the Alar area with temperatures between 16 - 25°C, which is suitable for fruit - setting. Jujube farmers are actively managing the orchards, and the jujube trees are entering the physiological fruit - dropping period. As the weather gets hotter, seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, which substitutes for jujubes, resulting in a slow digestion of jujube inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the textile industry is in the off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in the de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some Xinjiang areas increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. One should also be vigilant about macro - factor risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 10,425 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10; the main contract's position volume is 136,908 lots, an increase of 1,239; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,018 lots, a decrease of 239; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,893 lots, an increase of 209; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,745 lots, a decrease of 209 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 6 yuan/jin, in Henan is 4.3 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 9.8 yuan/kg, in Hebei is 9.73 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg), in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg); the first - grade red dates price in Guangdong is 9.6 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg). The unified prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and the price of Aksu is unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg; the cumulative export volume is 15,350,567 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg; the cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production of red dates of好想youis - 34.59% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On July 9th, in the Aksu area, it rained with a temperature between 18 - 28°C, which is suitable for fruit setting. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards, and the jujube trees are gradually entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage. One should pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. Internationally, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 14% (up from 9% last week, compared to 18% last year and a five - year average of 15%), the budding rate is 48% (up from 40% last week, compared to 51% last year and a five - year average of 49%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (up from 51% last week, compared to 45% last year). Recent weather is conducive to crop growth, and combined with a stronger US dollar and a weaker grain market, it has pushed down the price of US cotton. The US is imposing tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and Trump has threatened to impose a new 10% tariff on BRICS countries [2]

红枣产业日报 2025-06-30 降温，不过天气多变，可能导致盘面反复波动，持续关注。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) -25 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 9595 | | | 119705 | -661 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) -67 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has announced the establishment of additional designated delivery service institutions for red dates, enhancing the delivery capabilities and supporting the high-quality development of the red date industry in Xinjiang and inland regions [1][2]. Group 1: Delivery Service Expansion - The ZCE has added three existing designated delivery warehouses in Xinjiang and one in Zhengzhou as delivery service institutions for red dates, increasing the total number of delivery service institutions to four [1]. - The new delivery rules for red date futures will be implemented in the 2025/2026 production season, allowing for delivery via vehicle (or ship) at a discount, which is expected to significantly increase demand for this delivery method [1][2]. Group 2: Transportation Cost Reduction - Establishing delivery service institutions in Xinjiang will lower transportation costs, especially during the peak season from October to January when agricultural products are concentrated for transport to inland areas [2]. - The new delivery points in Xinjiang and Henan will alleviate transportation pressure and avoid bottlenecks that could lead to insufficient delivery products during peak times [2]. Group 3: Increased Participation and Efficiency - The expansion of delivery service institutions enhances the coverage of delivery operations, providing companies with more options for delivery methods, which is particularly attractive for products with concentrated sales cycles like red dates [3]. - The cost-effectiveness of vehicle (or ship) delivery reduces intermediate storage and handling fees, facilitating quicker transfer and circulation of red date ownership, thereby increasing participation from industry clients [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint As the weather gets hotter and seasonal fresh fruits come onto the market, they replace tonic products like red dates. It is the seasonal off - peak demand period for red dates, resulting in slow inventory digestion and increasing pressure, which restricts the upward space of red date prices. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,693 tons, a decrease of 15 tons from last week, a 0.14% week - on - week decrease and a 69.51% year - on - year increase. The market trading atmosphere is average. During the annual consumption trough, attention should be paid to the growth of new crops in the producing areas [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 8,895 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 79,118 lots, an increase of 230 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,180 lots, a decrease of 1,208 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,164, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts are 391, an increase of 260 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of red dates in different regions remain stable. For example, the wholesale price of first - class grey dates in Hebei is 4.15 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of first - class grey dates in Henan is 4.25 yuan/jin [2]. Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 6.069 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,693 tons, a decrease of 15 tons from last week. The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,361,798 kg, a decrease of 1,057,714 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume is 13,121,340 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, decreased. The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of好想你 is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel Agricultural Products research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10,693 tons, a 0.14% week - on - week decrease and a 69.51% year - on - year increase [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - As the weather gets hotter, seasonal fresh fruits come onto the market, substituting for nourishing products like red dates. After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking ends, the market trading atmosphere weakens, the demand for red dates seasonally declines, inventory digestion slows down, and pressure keeps rising, which restricts the upside space of jujube prices. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the trading atmosphere in the red date market weakens, the arrival volume decreases. During the annual consumption trough, attention should be paid to the growth of the new season in the producing areas [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 8,910 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 78,665 lots, a decrease of 505 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is -801 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,383 sheets; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 128 sheets [2] Spot Market - The wholesale price of first-grade grey jujubes in Hebei is 4.15 yuan/jin; in Henan, it is 4.25 yuan/jin. The price of special-grade red dates in Henan is 9.5 yuan/kg; in Hebei, it is 9.2 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it is 10.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/kg. The price of first-grade red dates in Guangdong is 9 yuan/kg. The unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg; in Alar, it is 5.2 yuan/kg; in Aksu, it is 4.8 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 10,708 tons, a decrease of 45 tons from last week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% and a year-on-year increase of 72.38%. The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,361,798 kg, a decrease of 1,057,714 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 13,121,340 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 34.59%. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons [2] Industry News - According to the research data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,708 tons, a decrease of 45 tons from last week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% and a year-on-year increase of 72.38%. The inventory of sample points decreased slightly this week [2]