Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the market with a base case index target for MXCN at 67 by the end of 2025, with a preference for sectors such as Energy, IT, and Utilities [36][38]. Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in the MXCN index, driven by sectors like IT and Healthcare, with expectations of a market reversal by late January 2025 [9][11]. - The report highlights a cautious approach towards Consumer Discretionary and Staples, recommending a rotation into quality laggards and large caps over small and mid-caps [36][38]. - The anticipated GDP growth for China in 2025 is projected at 4.1%, slightly below the consensus of 4.2% [10]. Market & Sector Performance - MXCN sectors performance shows Consumer Discretionary up by 3.2% week-on-week, while Information Technology leads with an 8.3% increase [6]. - The MSCI China index has shown a year-to-date increase of 9.0%, with a notable recovery in sectors impacted by US tariffs [7][12]. Catalyst Calendar - The report outlines key upcoming macroeconomic indicators and sector-specific data releases, including PMIs and housing transactions, which could influence market movements [14]. Consensus Macro Forecasts - The consensus forecasts for China's GDP growth in 2025 are 5.1% for Q1, declining to 3.9% by Q4, indicating a gradual slowdown [16]. Index Targets - The MSCI-China index target for 2025 is set at 71, with a bull case of 80 and a bear case of 70, reflecting a potential upside of 13% from current levels [18]. - The CSI-300 index target for 2025 is projected at 3,787, with a bull case of 4,150, indicating a 10% upside potential [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends overweight positions in Energy, IT, and Utilities, while advising underweight positions in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Staples [39]. - A barbell strategy is suggested, focusing on high-yielders and selected thematic plays in Internet and AI sectors [36][38]. Trading Statistics - Recent trading statistics indicate a net outflow of US$796 million from China equities, primarily driven by passive fund outflows, although there has been a positive development with resumed offshore ETF inflows [79][80].

Core Insights - The Hershey Company reported first-quarter 2025 results with net sales declining 13.8% year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.09 exceeded expectations despite a 31.9% decline from the previous year [1][12] Financial Performance - Adjusted gross margin contracted to 41.2%, down 370 basis points due to higher commodity and manufacturing costs, unfavorable product mix, and lower volumes [3] - Selling, marketing, and administrative (SM&A) expenses decreased by 9.6% year over year, driven by reductions in advertising and consumer marketing spend, lower compensation, and transformation program savings [4] - Adjusted operating profit fell 29.4% to $608.1 million, with the operating margin contracting 480 basis points to 21.7% [5] Segment Analysis - North America Confectionery segment net sales were $2,300.1 million, a 15% decrease, primarily due to volume headwinds [6] - North America Salty Snacks segment reported net sales of $277.8 million, a 1% increase, with volume growth partially offset by a decline in net pricing [8] - International segment net sales declined 15.9% to $227.5 million, with a profit margin contraction of 320 basis points to 12.6% [10] Future Outlook - Management expects net sales to increase by at least 2% in 2025, with adjusted EPS projected between $6.00 and $6.18, reflecting a mid-30% decline from 2024 [12] - Anticipated effective tax rate is approximately 16%, with tariff expenses expected to be between $15 million and $20 million in the second quarter [13]

Core Insights - dsm-firmenich reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth across its businesses and effective execution of its strategic plan, including cost and revenue synergy programs [2][4][10] Financial Performance - Sales for Q1 2025 reached €3,274 million, a 7% increase from €3,071 million in Q1 2024 [2][9] - Organic sales growth was recorded at 8% [10] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to €650 million, a 40% increase from €463 million in Q1 2024, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.9% compared to 15.1% in the previous year [2][11] Business Unit Performance - **Perfumery & Beauty (P&B)**: Sales increased to €1,015 million, with a 3% organic sales growth. Adjusted EBITDA was €230 million, down 2% from the previous year, with a margin of 22.7% [14][15][16] - **Taste, Texture & Health (TTH)**: Sales reached €851 million, reflecting a 7% organic sales growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% to €168 million, with a margin of 19.7% [18][19][20] - **Health, Nutrition & Care (HNC)**: Sales were €528 million, with 7% organic sales growth. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16% to €92 million, achieving a margin of 17.4% [23][24][25] - **Animal Nutrition & Health (ANH)**: Sales surged to €874 million, a 17% increase, with organic sales growth of 19%. Adjusted EBITDA skyrocketed to €186 million, up 675%, with a margin of 21.3% [27][28][30] Strategic Initiatives - The company announced a €1 billion share buyback program, initiated in April 2025, aimed at reducing issued capital [6][8] - dsm-firmenich expects a full-year Adjusted EBITDA of at least €2.4 billion for 2025, which includes a €150 million contribution from temporary vitamin price effects due to supply disruptions [5][6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported top line results in line with expectations despite market pressures, indicating strong cash flow performance and a healthy balance sheet [4] - The revised guidance reflects a larger cut than previous ones, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in a dynamic consumer environment [7][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is prioritizing investments in marketing, R&D, and technology, focusing on increasing returns from marketing dollars and optimizing brand and media types [10][12] - The brand growth system is being scaled up to cover 40% of the business by the end of the year, indicating a strategic shift in how investments are made [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter is expected to see a top line improvement due to the timing of Easter, with an estimated positive impact of approximately 90 to 100 basis points [22] - Emerging markets are anticipated to accelerate, contributing positively to overall performance [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to making necessary investments to deliver quality and value offerings, while closely monitoring market tensions [5] - The strategy includes a disciplined approach to marketing and product renovation, aiming for sustainable and profitable growth in the long term [44][59] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges macroeconomic uncertainties but remains confident in the strategy, choosing to invest in growth rather than adopting a defensive posture [9] - The company expects gross margin pressure in the second quarter due to increased promotional activity and commodity inflation, but anticipates recovery in the third quarter [55][56] Other Important Information - The company is facing inflationary pressures, with COGS expected to rise by 5%, influenced by commodity price increases and potential tariff impacts [33][34] - The guidance reflects a wider range to accommodate various scenarios in the changing policy landscape [63][65] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on revised outlook and investment strategy - Management emphasized continued investment in the business despite macroeconomic uncertainties, focusing on marketing, R&D, and technology to drive growth [9][10] Question: Impact of Easter timing and other factors on sales - The second quarter is expected to benefit from the Easter timing shift, with improvements in specific product categories anticipated [22][23] Question: Breakdown of COGS inflation drivers - COGS inflation is expected to rise due to commodity price increases, with tariffs potentially adding 50 to 200 basis points impact [33][34] Question: Pricing strategy in response to inflation - Management is exploring various strategies to minimize price increases while maintaining profitability, including alternative sourcing and product reformulation [46][47] Question: Gross margin expectations and market share performance - Gross margin pressure is anticipated due to promotional activities and commodity inflation, but management is optimistic about growth in certain product categories [55][58]

Core Insights - Mondelēz International, Inc. emphasizes its commitment to sustainability as a key pillar of its long-term strategy, alongside growth, execution, and culture [1][2] - The company reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion in 2024, showcasing its leadership in the snacking industry with well-known brands [3] Sustainability Progress - The company has made significant strides in sustainable sourcing, with nearly 91% of its cocoa volume covered by its Cocoa Life program, which supports farming communities and landscape regeneration [6] - A 12% reduction in end-to-end greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been achieved across the company's value chain compared to 2018 [6] - Approximately 96% of the company's packaging is designed to be recyclable, contributing to a more circular economy [6] - Over 84% of the company's revenue now comes from individually wrapped mindful portion snacks or those with clear portion guidance [6] Leadership and Strategy - The company maintains a two-pronged approach to sustainability, collaborating closely across the supply chain and taking a leadership role in industry initiatives [2][5] - The CEO expresses confidence in the company's positioning for long-term sustainable growth through the right strategy, brands, geographic footprint, and personnel [2]

Group 1: Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC) - Pilgrim's Pride is capitalizing on growing consumer demand for chicken across retail and foodservice sectors, with notable volume increases in the quick-service restaurant channel [2][3] - The company is focusing on operational agility and efficient delivery of high-quality poultry products, strengthening its presence in higher-margin channels [3] - Strategic investments in product development, packaging innovation, and automation are designed to enhance efficiency and drive scalability, particularly in Europe with brands like Fridge Raiders and Rollover [4] - PPC plans to allocate $450-$500 million in capital expenditure for 2025, focusing on expanding Prepared Foods production and optimizing operational efficiency [5] - Shares of PPC have gained 13.2% in the past three months, reflecting strong fundamentals and smart investments [5] Group 2: Other Consumer Staples Companies - Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is focused on revenue stabilization and margin improvement, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting growth of 0.7% in sales and 31.6% in earnings for fiscal 2025 [10][11] - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) is strengthening its market position through a focused strategy, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating growth of 0.3% in sales and 2.2% in earnings for fiscal 2025 [12][13] - United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) is enhancing its market position through a multi-faceted strategy, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting growth of 1.9% in sales and 485.7% in earnings for fiscal 2025 [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Mondelēz International, Inc. is set to release its first quarter 2025 financial results on April 29, 2025, at 4:05 p.m. ET, followed by a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET [1] Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - The financial results for the first quarter of 2025 will be disclosed on April 29, 2025 [1] - A conference call will be held on the same day at 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss the results [1] Group 2: Participation Details - Investors and analysts can join the conference call by calling 800-579-2543 from the U.S. and 785-424-1789 from other locations [2] - Participants are advised to dial in approximately 10 minutes before the call starts to ensure timely access [2] - A listen-only webcast will be available on the company's website [2] Group 3: Replay Information - A replay of the conference call will be accessible until May 06, 2025, by calling 800-839-4014 from the U.S. and 402-220-2983 from other locations [3] - The access code for both the conference call and its rebroadcast is MDLZQ125 [3] - An archive of the webcast will also be available on the company's website [3] Group 4: Company Overview - Mondelēz International, Inc. reported net revenues of approximately $36.4 billion in 2024 [4] - The company operates in over 150 countries and offers a range of iconic brands including Oreo, Ritz, and Cadbury [4] - Mondelēz is a member of the Standard and Poor's 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Sustainability Index [4]

Regulatory Insights - The State Council approved the draft amendment to the "Interim Regulations on Express Delivery," promoting green transformation in express packaging [2] - A timeline for mandatory green electricity consumption was established, with key industries like steel facing hard indicators for green electricity consumption [2] - A joint document was issued by multiple ministries to promote voluntary disclosure of corporate greenhouse gas emissions [2] - The National Energy Administration announced plans to align green certificate standards with international norms to support green trade for enterprises [2] Cover Article - The Minister of Ecology and Environment highlighted the significant changes in national ecological environment over the past decade, illustrated by two air filter membranes [3] - The balance between ecological protection and economic growth was a focal point during the National People's Congress, with discussions on the "Two Mountains" theory [3] - A call for policies to guide waste utilization into a virtuous cycle was made by a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference [3] - A proposal for establishing special funds and technical rewards for carbon capture technology was discussed to promote breakthroughs and industrial application [3] Government Work Report - The 2025 government work report emphasized the need for coordinated efforts in carbon reduction, pollution control, and green growth to accelerate comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development [4] - A representative from Longi Green Energy stressed that private enterprises should adopt a more sustainable investment perspective and increase technological investment in the photovoltaic sector [4] Industry Insights - The EU's "Omnibus Package" aims to simplify sustainable disclosure requirements, prompting Chinese companies to enhance their ESG strategies [4] - The first batch of voluntary carbon emissions reductions (CCER) was registered, with a market value exceeding 800 million yuan [4] ESG Pioneers - Yili Group is recognized for its transition from a "zero-carbon factory" to a global model, leading the industry in sustainable development [5] - The Senior Vice President of PepsiCo's Asia-Pacific supply chain discussed how green accelerators can drive business and ecological win-win scenarios amid climate change challenges [6] - The Vice President of GoodWe highlighted the trend of multi-energy complementarity in the future development of renewable energy [6] - The CEO of Diginex discussed the shift of ESG from compliance requirements to a core business strategy in global capital markets [6]

Industry Overview - Agricultural technology (AgriTech) and food innovation companies are focused on enhancing farming efficiency, sustainability, and food production, presenting a compelling investment opportunity driven by the need for sustainable food production and improved food security [1] - Innovations in AgriTech include precision farming, smart irrigation, drone technology, and agricultural biotechnology, which aim to boost crop yields, minimize resource usage, and lower food production costs and environmental impact [2] - Food innovation efforts, such as plant-based proteins and lab-grown meat, are designed to meet the growing demand for sustainable and ethical food alternatives [2] Investment Opportunities - Investing in AgriTech and food innovation stocks is recommended to stabilize portfolios in 2025, with Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) and Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) identified as favorable options with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [3][6] - Both companies have shown strong revenue and earnings growth potential for 2025, with positive earnings estimate revisions in the last 30 days [6] Company Profiles Beyond Meat Inc. - Beyond Meat specializes in plant-based meat products, offering a range of items that replicate beef, pork, and poultry meats, sold through various retail and foodservice channels [8][9] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 0.7% and an earnings growth rate of 31.6% for the current year, with a 4.8% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [10] Tyson Foods Inc. - Tyson Foods has a diversified multi-protein portfolio, allowing it to navigate industry cycles and capitalize on rising consumer demand for high-protein diets, supported by strong brand loyalty [11] - The Chicken segment of TSN is experiencing robust growth, aided by operational efficiencies and rising foodservice volumes, while the company leverages digital advancements and AI-driven solutions for supply-chain efficiency [12] - TSN has an expected revenue growth rate of 0.9% and an earnings growth rate of 23.6% for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days, and a current dividend yield of 3.26% [14]

Group 1: PepsiCo - PepsiCo is currently facing slower growth in both revenue and earnings compared to the post-pandemic period, as it can no longer implement significant price increases [2][3] - For 2024, PepsiCo anticipates organic revenue growth of 2% and adjusted earnings growth of 9%, with similar expectations for 2025 [3] - Despite the slowdown, these growth figures are considered respectable within the consumer staples sector, which is known for steady growth [4] - PepsiCo offers a historically high dividend yield of 3.5%, supported by over 50 years of annual dividend increases, making it attractive for dividend investors [5][4] - The company is a major player in the beverage and snack industries, with a diversified portfolio and strong global distribution and marketing capabilities [6] - The recent share price pullback of approximately 20% presents a buying opportunity, especially if market conditions shift towards safer investments [6] Group 2: Hershey - Hershey is currently facing challenges due to rising cocoa prices and potential impacts from new weight loss drugs, leading to a stock decline of around 33% from recent highs [7] - The high cocoa prices are expected to stabilize over time as production adjusts, while Hershey plans to raise prices and manage costs in the interim [8] - Concerns regarding weight loss drugs may be overstated, as historical trends suggest consumers may not abandon chocolate, which remains a cost-effective indulgence [9] - Hershey's dividend yield has increased to about 3% due to the stock price drop, making it an attractive option for dividend investors [9] - The Hershey Trust, which holds 79% of the voting power, ensures that the company prioritizes reliable and growing dividends, allowing management to make long-term decisions without pressure [10] - The current high yield presents a potential opportunity for investors to establish a position in Hershey, especially if market conditions become turbulent [11] Group 3: Market Context - Both PepsiCo and Hershey have outperformed the S&P 500 index during a recent period of market uncertainty, indicating potential resilience [12] - The stocks of both companies remain below recent highs, and their historically high yields make them attractive for long-term dividend investors [13] - Investors are encouraged to act quickly, as the current opportunity may not last [13]