Key Takeaways TSN posted Q3 sales of $13.88B and EPS of $0.91, beating estimates and rising year over year.A 3.7% average price increase offset a 0.1% volume decline to boost top-line growth.Strong multi-protein demand and operational gains drove higher profits despite margin pressure.Tyson Foods, Inc. ((TSN) reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with the top and bottom lines increasing year over year and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate.With consumer demand for protein remaining robust, TSN’s ...

Company Performance - BRF's stock price decreased by 3.23% to $3.90, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.33% [1] - Over the past month, BRF shares increased by 9.81%, outperforming the Consumer Staples sector's decline of 0.8% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.07% [1] Financial Projections - BRF is expected to report earnings of $0.11 per share, indicating no growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $0.39 per share and revenue at $12.15 billion, reflecting increases of +8.33% and +11.05% respectively from the previous year [2] Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for BRF are important as they indicate changing near-term business trends and analysts' confidence in performance [3] Valuation Metrics - BRF has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.33, which is lower than the industry average of 16.17, suggesting it is trading at a discount [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.25, significantly below the industry average PEG ratio of 1.63 [6] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, which includes BRF, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 185, placing it in the bottom 26% of over 250 industries [7] - Stronger industry groups, as indicated by the Zacks Industry Rank, tend to outperform weaker groups by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on inflation forecasts while awaiting further policy actions [3][19]. Core Insights - The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, marking a surprise after four consecutive negative readings, which may indicate potential reflation in China [3][4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation deepened unexpectedly, highlighting a divergence in price trends among different sectors, particularly between auto and steel prices [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms (SSR2.0) and the role of demand in shaping inflation expectations [19]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI reading for June was +0.0% YoY, compared to a prior reading of -0.1% YoY, with a sequential change of -0.1% MoM [3][5]. - Significant price increases were noted in the "other goods and services" category, which includes jewelry, with a +8.1% YoY change [5][8]. - Core inflation rose by +0.7% YoY, with core goods prices increasing by 0.9% YoY [5][19]. PPI Analysis - The PPI reading was -3.6% YoY, contrasting with market expectations of a narrower contraction [4][19]. - The PPI for the auto sector showed stabilization, while ferrous metals and non-metallic minerals reported negative changes, indicating a mixed outlook for SSR2.0 candidates [4][19]. Supply Side Reform Insights - The report suggests that the upcoming Politburo meeting and action plans from relevant ministries will be crucial for future inflation trajectories [19]. - The divergence in price trends between sectors like steel and auto underscores the need for targeted demand-side policies [19].

Group 1 - BRF's stock closed at $4.03, reflecting a +2.03% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.28% [1] - Over the past month, BRF shares have increased by 3.67%, while the Consumer Staples sector has decreased by 1.44% [1] - The upcoming financial results are expected to show an EPS of $0.11, unchanged from the same quarter last year, with projected annual earnings of $0.39 per share and revenue of $12.15 billion, representing increases of +8.33% and +11.05% respectively [2] Group 2 - Recent analyst estimate revisions for BRF indicate a positive outlook for the business [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks BRF as 2 (Buy) [5] - The Forward P/E ratio for BRF is 10.13, which is lower than the industry average of 15.4, and the PEG ratio is 0.25 compared to the industry average of 1.61 [6] Group 3 - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, which includes BRF, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 182, placing it in the bottom 27% of over 250 industries [7] - The performance of individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - In June 2025, Qingdao's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, driven by a 1.1% rise in food prices and a 0.2% increase in non-food prices [1][3] Group 1: Price Changes - Food and tobacco prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.30 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] - Among the eight categories, prices for other goods and services, education, culture and entertainment, clothing, and living goods and services increased by 10.7%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.1% respectively [3] - Conversely, healthcare, housing, and transportation and communication prices decreased by 0.2%, 0.3%, and 3.1% respectively [3] Group 2: Food Price Details - Grain prices increased by 0.4% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, with flour prices up by 2.6% year-on-year [5] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year, with significant increases in lotus root and spinach prices, which rose by 33.7% and 28.8% respectively [5] - Pork prices decreased by 12.7% year-on-year, while water product prices increased by 8.5% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer prices fell by 0.6% year-on-year, with clothing prices up by 0.8% year-on-year but down by 0.2% month-on-month [8] - Transportation tool prices decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with fuel car prices down by 4.4% year-on-year [8] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with travel-related service prices showing mixed trends [10]

Inflation and Deflation Trends - Industry experts predict a new inflation cycle in China due to M2 scale reaching 326.06 trillion yuan, which is double the GDP, but currently, deflation is observed with April CPI rising only 0.3% [1] - From June 2025, five major price drops are anticipated in China [3] Real Estate Market - Since 2022, housing prices have been on a downward trend, with cities like Tianjin and Shijiazhuang experiencing declines, and major cities like Shanghai seeing significant adjustments, with prices dropping from 95,000 yuan per square meter to 65,000 yuan, a decrease of over 30% [5] - By the second half of 2025, housing price differentiation is expected, with second and third-tier cities slowing their decline while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may experience further drops [5] Seafood Prices - Seafood prices are becoming more affordable, with prices for king crabs dropping below 200 yuan each and salmon prices decreasing by 40%, while shrimp prices fell from 38 yuan per jin to 28 yuan per jin [7] - The decline in seafood prices is attributed to consumer hesitance following Japan's nuclear wastewater discharge, leading to reduced demand despite no contamination in domestic seafood [7] Automotive Market - A price reduction trend is observed in the domestic automotive market, with mid-range cars dropping by 15,000 to 20,000 yuan and luxury imports seeing reductions up to 100,000 yuan [9] - Factors contributing to the decline include an influx of new energy vehicles, increased competition from tech companies like Huawei and Xiaomi, and reduced consumer purchasing power [9] Home Appliance Prices - Home appliance prices are expected to adjust downwards by 10% to 15% for items like refrigerators, TVs, and air conditioners by 2025 [12] - The rapid technological advancement in appliances and decreased consumer spending due to lower incomes are driving the need for discounts and promotions to clear inventory [12] Pork Prices - Pork prices are decreasing, with supermarket prices dropping from 26-28 yuan per jin to 18-20 yuan per jin, and further declines are expected [13] - The price drop is due to overproduction from previous years' high prices attracting investment in pig farming and a shift in consumer preference towards healthier meat options [13]

Summary of Tyson Foods (TSN) FY Conference Call - May 14, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Tyson Foods (TSN) - **Event**: FY Conference Call - **Date**: May 14, 2025 Key Industry Insights - The conference focused on the food value chain, including sectors such as agribusiness, protein, food, beverage, distribution, and food retail [2][3] - Tyson Foods has been a consistent participant in this conference for twenty consecutive years, highlighting its significance in the industry [4] Core Company Performance - **Chicken Business**: - Achieved approximately $680 million in adjusted operating income in the first half of the year [6][16] - Expected to maintain strong performance with guidance for the year set between $1 billion to $1.3 billion [16][18] - Focus on value-added products rather than commodity markets, leading to improved margins [9][10] - Continued investment in brand health and product innovation for future growth [7][11] - **Prepared Foods**: - Recorded about $900 million in adjusted operating income in 2024, with expectations for further growth in 2025 [35][38] - Emphasis on operational excellence and innovation pipeline, aiming for significant improvements in efficiency and profitability [39][40] - Plans to regain food service volume and private label business, enhancing overall market presence [44] - **Beef Business**: - Facing challenges with herd rebuilding, but optimistic about future recovery based on USDA data indicating a decrease in cattle harvest [50][51] - Expected losses in the beef segment for 2025 estimated between $200 million to $400 million [18][58] - Focus on controlling costs and enhancing value-added products to mitigate challenges [52] - **Pork and International**: - Pork business showed a reduction in controllable costs by approximately 18% in Q2, indicating operational improvements [60] - International operations are focused on capacity utilization and filling assets in key markets like China and Thailand [62] Financial Management and Capital Allocation - Tyson Foods has maintained a disciplined approach to cash management, with a target leverage ratio of 2x [65][66] - Capital expenditures are projected between $1 billion and $1.2 billion, reflecting a healthy reinvestment rate [66] - The company raised its dividend for the thirteenth consecutive year, reaching $2 per share [67] Strategic Outlook - Tyson Foods aims to enhance its branded portfolio and innovation pipeline, particularly in prepared foods and value-added chicken products [68] - Share repurchases are considered part of the capital allocation strategy, contingent on market conditions and dilution coverage [69] Additional Considerations - The company is navigating a complex environment with strong demand for chicken and challenges in beef production, which may impact overall profitability [28][49] - Continuous improvement in operational efficiency is a key focus across all segments to drive future growth [48]

Core Insights - Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) reported a strong increase in adjusted earnings per share, reaching 92 cents, which exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents and marked a 48% increase from the previous year's 62 cents [2] - Total sales remained flat at $13,074 million year over year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13,097.8 million, with average price changes positively impacting the top line by 2.6% while total volumes remained unchanged [2] Financial Performance - Gross profit for the quarter was $600 million, down from $866 million in the same period last year [3] - Adjusted operating income increased by 27% to $515 million from $406 million year over year, with the adjusted operating margin expanding to 3.8% from 3.1% [3] Segment Performance - **Beef**: Sales increased to $5,196 million from $4,954 million, with volumes down 1.4% and average prices up 8.2% [4] - **Pork**: Sales decreased to $1,244 million from $1,486 million, with volumes down 3.8% and average prices up 4.3% [4] - **Chicken**: Sales improved to $4,141 million from $4,065 million, with sales volumes growing 3% and average prices down 1.1% [5] - **Prepared Foods**: Sales were $2,396 million, down from $2,404 million, with volumes dipping 2.6% and average prices rising 2.3% [5] - **International/Other**: Sales were $566 million compared to $580 million, with volumes down 1.5% and average sales prices down 0.9% [6] Financial Position - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $992 million, long-term debt of $8,172 million, and total shareholders' equity of $18,531 million [7] - Liquidity stood at $3.2 billion, expected to remain above the minimum target of $1 billion for fiscal 2025, with projected capital expenditure of $1-$1.2 billion [8] Future Outlook - The USDA projects a 1% increase in domestic protein production for fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2024 [10] - For fiscal 2025, Tyson Foods anticipates total revenue growth to be flat to a 1% increase, with adjusted operating income expected in the range of $1.9-$2.3 billion [12] - Segment-wise, adjusted operating income projections include a loss of $0.4-$0.2 billion for Beef, and profits of $0.1-$0.2 billion for Pork, $1-$1.3 billion for Chicken, and $0.9-$1.1 billion for Prepared Foods [13]

Core Insights - Tyson Foods reported $13.07 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of 0% and an EPS of $0.92 compared to $0.62 a year ago, with a revenue surprise of -0.18% and an EPS surprise of +8.24% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue of $13.07 billion compared to Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.1 billion [1] - EPS of $0.92 compared to consensus estimate of $0.85 [1] - Year-over-year revenue growth of 0% [1] Key Metrics - Beef volume decreased by 1.4% compared to the average estimate of -1.5% [4] - Chicken volume increased by 3% compared to the average estimate of 1% [4] - Sales for Chicken were $4.14 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $4.05 billion, with a year-over-year change of +1.9% [4] - Sales for Beef were $5.20 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $4.97 billion, with a year-over-year change of +4.9% [4] - International/Other sales were $566 million, below the estimated $582.90 million, representing a -2.4% change year-over-year [4] - Prepared Foods sales were $2.40 billion, slightly below the estimated $2.46 billion, with a -0.3% change year-over-year [4] - Pork sales were $1.24 billion, below the average estimate of $1.47 billion, reflecting a -16.3% year-over-year change [4] Operating Income - Adjusted Operating Loss for Beef was -$149 million compared to the average estimate of -$122.63 million [4] - Adjusted Operating Income for Pork was $55 million, exceeding the average estimate of $40.74 million [4] - Adjusted Operating Income for International/Other was $53 million, surpassing the average estimate of $14.62 million [4] - Adjusted Operating Income for Prepared Foods was $244 million, slightly below the average estimate of $255.29 million [4] Stock Performance - Tyson shares returned +1.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3]

Core Insights - Analysts forecast Tyson Foods (TSN) will report quarterly earnings of $0.85 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37.1% [1] - Anticipated revenues are projected to be $13.1 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3] Sales Projections - Analysts project 'Sales- Chicken' to reach $4.05 billion, indicating a decrease of 0.3% from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Sales- Beef' is estimated at $4.97 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year [5] - 'Sales- International/Other' is expected to be $582.90 million, with a year-over-year increase of 0.5% [5] - 'Sales- Prepared Foods' is projected to reach $2.46 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of 2.3% [5] - 'Sales- Pork' is estimated at $1.47 billion, showing a decrease of 1.1% from the prior-year quarter [6] Adjusted Operating Income - 'Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)- Pork' is expected to be $40.74 million, compared to $33 million from the previous year [6] - 'Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)- International/Other' is projected at $14.62 million, up from $14 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)- Prepared Foods' is likely to reach $255.29 million, compared to $233 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)- Chicken' is estimated at $305.64 million, significantly higher than the year-ago figure of $160 million [8] Stock Performance - Tyson shares have experienced a decline of 4% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decrease of 0.2% [8] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to closely follow overall market performance in the near term [8]