Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI declined in July, influenced by seasonal factors and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies aimed at capacity management in key industries, which has led to an increase in raw material prices. Additionally, weak real estate demand has negatively impacted domestic demand [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the services business activity index was 50.0%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The marginal decline in manufacturing PMI aligns with seasonal trends, with some regions experiencing supply and demand disruptions due to extreme weather conditions. There is a notable divergence in PMI performance between large and small enterprises [2]. - Production has entered a low season, with demand showing a greater-than-seasonal slowdown. Certain sectors, such as railway, shipping, aerospace, and computer communication, continue to see new orders in the expansion zone, likely due to ongoing equipment upgrade policies. Conversely, sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products remain below the critical point due to insufficient end-demand amid real estate pressures [2]. Services Sector - The service sector remains stable, supported by seasonal factors. The tourism-related industries have seen increased activity due to summer holiday effects, with transportation, postal, and entertainment sectors maintaining high business activity indices. However, real estate and residential services are in contraction zones, indicating weaker performance [3]. - The construction industry has experienced a greater-than-seasonal decline in activity, primarily due to weak real estate demand and a slowdown in fiscal spending on infrastructure projects. Future improvements in construction activity are anticipated, supported by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3]. Policy and Investment Outlook - The central political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements. The focus should be on three main lines: first, the "anti-involution" policies are expected to adjust supply-side dynamics in certain industries, potentially boosting price levels; second, 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer upgrades will be allocated in July, with remaining funds to be disbursed in October, supporting consumption; third, urban renewal projects are likely to enhance investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and the renovation of old urban areas [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [4]. - Supply: It slightly rebounded. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Demand: It slightly improved. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3, with 7 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, with 6 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases [4]. Non - manufacturing - Overall: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [5]. - Supply: Employment slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, while the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Demand: It recovered. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [10]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [10]. Demand: Focus on the Improvement of General Equipment and Construction Installation and Decoration - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [17]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 7 declined [17]. Supply: Focus on the Contraction of Non - ferrous Metals, Automobiles, and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in March remained unchanged at 48.0. Six industries improved month - on - month, while 9 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 4 industries improved month - on - month, while 11 declined [24]. Price: Focus on the Pressure of Non - ferrous Metals and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in July was 46.4, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries saw price improvements, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in March decreased by 1.4 percentage points, and the overall profit continued to converge [31]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in July was 48.0, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 0.7 percentage points. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit in March decreased by 0.6 percentage points. The service industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points [31]. Inventory: Focus on the Low Levels of Postal Services and Textile and Apparel - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3. Seven industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Six industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases [40]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. By industry, 6 industries saw inventory increases, and 9 saw decreases [40]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in July, new orders, production, prices, and inventory, along with their changes and five - year percentiles [8]. - Tables present detailed PMI data for various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others, covering aspects like new orders, production, employment, prices, and inventory [51][56][60].

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, suggesting overall economic output remains in an expansion phase [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index and new orders index were recorded at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, both showing a decline from June, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, indicating ongoing expansion [2][3] Price Trends - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, both increasing from June [3] - The rise in prices was attributed to the increase in prices of major commodities such as coal and steel, which significantly impacted the manufacturing PMI [3] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decline from June [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable, with certain industries related to travel and consumption experiencing high activity levels, while construction activities slowed due to adverse weather [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic policies should be adjusted to stimulate demand, particularly through increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure [4] - The upcoming summer consumption is expected to positively influence economic activity in August, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5]

Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The production index for July was 50.5%, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.5 percentage points[13] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a stronger-than-seasonal decline in demand[13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, influenced by weak real estate demand and slowing fiscal spending on infrastructure projects[27] - The services business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with tourism-related sectors performing well during the summer[25] - In key industries, the equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, while the consumer goods industry PMI dropped to 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points[12] Group 3: Raw Material Prices and Inventory - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March 2025[19] - The procurement index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating reduced purchasing activity due to insufficient domestic demand[21] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, suggesting continued reduction in inventory levels[21] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central political bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including timely fiscal measures[29] - A total of 69 billion yuan was allocated in July for consumer support initiatives, with additional funds expected in October[29] - Urban renewal projects are anticipated to boost investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and renovation of old neighborhoods[29]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][12][14] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises dropped to 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2][15] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [3][14] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point [8][12][17] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [8][17] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [8][12] Group 3: Price and Employment Indices - The input price index for non-manufacturing rose to 50.3%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating an increase in overall input prices [8] - The sales price index for non-manufacturing was 47.9%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in overall sales prices [9] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.6%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions [10] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [11][18] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the overall PMI output index [18]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][21][22] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [6][22] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [5][23][24] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [11][25] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [14][25] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 55.8%, indicating optimism among most enterprises regarding market development [17][25] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [20][26] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive index's performance [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japan is steadily moving towards escaping deflation, with a stable upward trend in wages and prices, marking a long-term economic recovery phase [1][2]. - The economic recovery is characterized as being driven by the service sector, contrasting with previous recoveries that were led by exports and production [2]. - The white paper highlights the potential downward risks to Japan's economy from U.S. tariff measures, indicating a need for caution regarding their impact [1][2]. Group 2 - The report notes that personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's GDP, is recovering slowly despite improvements in disposable income and financial asset balances [2]. - Consumer sentiment is negatively affected by the belief that wage increases are not sustainable and that price increases will continue, leading to higher savings rates among households, particularly single-person households [3]. - To achieve a robust recovery in personal consumption, stable price increases and faster wage growth are deemed essential, along with policies aimed at enhancing social security and reducing uncertainties about retirement [3].

Core Points - The China Post Group has introduced a 30% discount on domestic parcel delivery for military personnel, civil servants, and veterans starting from July, supported by the State Post Bureau [1] - Additional discounts will be available during the military retirement season for parcels sent from military camps [1] - The postal service aims to enhance efficiency and quality by integrating IoT and smart delivery lockers, establishing regular communication with the military, and adjusting service hours based on postal needs [1] - Measures will be taken to address the challenges faced by military personnel in remote areas, including setting up military post offices, dedicated postal boxes, and exploring unmanned delivery options [1]