特朗普政府准备关税备用方案 早上好，先来看下重要消息。 在美国最高法院可能否决一项重要关税授权之际，据悉特朗普政府正暗中筹备备用方案，以期尽快恢复关税措施。 美国官员透露，商务部和美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）都已经研究了在法院裁决不利时的"B计划"选项，其中包括动用《贸易法》第301条和第 122条，这两项条款都赋予总统单方面加征关税的权力。 值得注意的是，在本月的口头辩论中，最高法院法官对特朗普的全球性关税显得颇为怀疑。 如果裁决不利，美国政府可能被迫返还已征收的880多亿美元关税。不过，有分析师表示："我预期他们（特朗普团队）会立刻行动，把关税再加 回来。他们基本上会把原来的政策再拼回去。" 波士顿联储主席柯林斯最新表态，美联储下个月降息概率几乎翻倍 波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示，继续认为通胀方面存在风险，温和限制性的政策有助于确保通胀下降。目前对美联储而言是复杂时期，政策观点存 在差异并不令人意外，仍认为有理由对12月降息持谨慎态度。 美国调整对巴西商品关税范围 据央视新闻消息，当地时间11月21日，巴西副总统阿尔克明表示，美国宣布取消对咖啡、肉类和水果等部分品类巴西商品征收40%附加关税，但 仍有约22 ...

美国关税政策正在发生重大调整。 最新消息显示，在美国宣布取消对咖啡、肉类和水果等部分品类巴西商品征收40%附加关税后，巴西政府当地 时间周五表示，这是当前双边谈判的"最大进展"，双方将保持谈判推进。 有美媒评论称，特朗普政府此举是为了回应选民关切，降低美国食品价格。另外，英国《金融时报》表示，这 是巴西总统卢拉的一项重大胜利，此前卢拉在关税问题上硬刚美国总统特朗普，没有做出任何让步。 美国调整对巴西商品关税范围 11月22日，据央视新闻，当地时间11月21日，巴西副总统阿尔克明表示，美国宣布取消对咖啡、肉类和水果等 部分品类巴西商品征收40%附加关税，但仍有约22%的对美出口商品继续受到影响。 阿尔克明强调，美国放宽对巴西部分出口产品关税，是当前双边谈判的"最大进展"，双方将保持谈判推进，巴 西方面对此保持乐观。 当地时间11月20日，美国白宫宣布，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，修改对从巴西进口商品的关税范围。 部分商品40%从价关税维持不变，但鉴于谈判取得进展，对美东时间11月13日零点后进入美国的特定巴西农产 品取消附加从价关税。 白宫表示，特朗普的行政命令还取消了从巴西进口飞机零部件的40%关税。 白宫称， ...

（央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间20日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，进一步扩大对巴西农产品的关 税豁免范围，包括取消对巴西牛肉、咖啡等农产品征收的40%关税。 在这份20日签署的行政令中，美国总统特朗普表示，与巴西政府的谈判取得初步进展，因此决定对美东 时间11月13日零点后进入美国的特定数十种巴西农产品免除40%的关税，具体包括牛肉、咖啡、可可、 西红柿以及多种水果等。上周，美国政府已将部分农产品从另一项征收10%进口关税产品名单中剔除， 这是过去一周内，美国关税政策第二次出现重大调整。巴西总统卢拉20日称，很高兴看到这一结果。 巴西总统 卢拉：今天我很高兴，因为美国总统特朗普已经开始减少对巴西（特定农产品）所征收的关 税。 多家美国媒体报道称，物价上涨压力是迫使美国政府调整关税的重要原因。数据显示，9月份美国消费 者价格指数、也就是CPI同比上涨3%，其中，牛肉、咖啡和茶饮价格同比上涨超10%。 据悉，巴西咖啡 供应量约占美国咖啡市场的三分之一，巴西牛肉、特别是用于制作汉堡的牛肉，近年来也成为美国市场 重要的牛肉供应来源。此外，白宫方面20日还表示，特朗普的行政令还取消了从巴西进口飞机零部件的 40%关税。 ...

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, leading to a stock increase of over 20% [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Automotive revenue increased by 47% to $1.1 billion, driven by higher vehicle deliveries and rising average selling prices, contributing to a consolidated revenue growth of 78% to approximately $1.6 billion [2] - The sales increase was partly due to customers purchasing vehicles before the expiration of EV tax credits at the end of September, with some customers utilizing leasing loopholes to benefit from these credits [3][6] - Management indicated that with the expiration of tax credits, they do not expect significant revenue from regulatory credits moving forward [5] Group 2: Cost Management - Recent policy changes have reduced tariff costs for Rivian, with the previous tariff impact of nearly $2,000 per vehicle expected to decrease to a few hundred dollars for new builds [7][8] - Although some vehicle inventory does not qualify for credits, management anticipates that new vehicle builds in the fourth quarter will benefit from the reduced tariff costs [9] Group 3: Profitability - Rivian achieved a consolidated gross profit of $24 million in the quarter, marking a $416 million improvement year-over-year, and this was the second quarter of gross profit for the year [10] - The automotive gross profit loss was $130 million, but this represented a $249 million improvement from the previous year, attributed to higher average selling prices and cost reductions [11] - The company reported $154 million in gross profit from software and services, a $167 million improvement from a loss in the prior year, largely due to a joint venture with Volkswagen [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The impact of eliminated tax credits may lead to lower vehicle sales in the next quarter, but the launch of the R2 model in the first half of 2026, priced around $45,000, could serve as a catalyst for growth [13] - Overall, Rivian appears to be navigating a challenging EV market effectively, as indicated by the positive quarterly results [14]

Core Viewpoint - Anker Innovations has confirmed its plan for a secondary listing in Hong Kong to enhance its global strategy and competitiveness, driven by over 96% of its revenue coming from overseas markets and a declining domestic market presence [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Anker Innovations, established in 2011, is a smart hardware device company that went public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in August 2020 [5]. - The company has maintained over 95% of its revenue from international markets for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Anker Innovations reported a revenue of 21.019 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%, and a net profit of 1.933 billion, up 31.34% [4][5]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was -865 million, a significant decline of 152.38% year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Global Strategy and Market Challenges - The decision to list in Hong Kong is part of Anker Innovations' strategy to expand its global presence and brand influence [4][5]. - The company faces challenges due to its heavy reliance on overseas markets, making it sensitive to changes in global trade environments [6]. - Anker Innovations has been affected by global tariff policy adjustments, leading to increased operational costs and cash flow pressures [6][7]. Group 4: Inventory and Supply Chain Management - As of September 30, 2025, Anker Innovations had an inventory balance of 6.147 billion, a 90.11% increase from the beginning of the year, attributed to preparations for potential tariff changes [7]. - The company has adopted strategies such as early stockpiling and supply chain adjustments to mitigate risks from potential tariff increases [6][7]. Group 5: Product Safety and Market Competition - Anker Innovations has faced multiple large-scale recalls in 2025 due to product safety issues, including a recall of over 710,000 power banks in June [8]. - The company’s main product categories include charging storage, smart innovation, and smart audio-visual products, with the charging storage segment achieving a revenue of 6.816 billion, a 37% increase year-on-year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing focus on artificial intelligence (AI) transactions is leading to both optimism and concerns among investors regarding potential asset bubbles and missed opportunities in other sectors [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Strong earnings reports have alleviated concerns despite accumulating economic warning signals [1] - Analysts suggest that as Wall Street concentrates on popular sectors, contrarian strategies may reveal overlooked investment opportunities [1] - A group of analysts from Bank of America raised a question about whether excessive focus on the AI sector might cause investors to overlook other opportunities [1] Group 2: Selected Stocks - Viking Cruises (VIK) stands out in the hotel service industry due to its differentiated, all-inclusive, destination-focused products, leading to superior financial performance and over 50% market share in the river cruise sector [2] - McCormick & Company (MKC) is expected to rebound from tariff policy adjustments, potentially benefiting from a tariff exemption and being one of the few companies in the packaged food sector to achieve organic sales and volume growth [2] - Dollar General (DG) is performing well due to the trend of consumers "trading down" in response to inflation, with an increase in basket size and a successful e-commerce strategy [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market is affected by both the support of import costs and the pressure of domestic fundamentals, with high - level volatility of short - term futures prices intensifying [5]. - The palm oil market is suppressed by inventory pressure, weak demand, and the external market environment, and short - term futures prices will remain weak in the oil market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Market Conditions**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly". The core logic includes China's tariff policy on the US, import and arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [5][6]. - **Driving Factors**: After China adjusted the tariff policy on the US, although the 10% additional tariff was cancelled, the 13% benchmark tariff was retained, weakening the cost support of US soybean futures on the domestic market. Domestic spot pressure has increased significantly, with high inventory, weak demand from the breeding end, and obvious pressure on spot prices [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Market Conditions**: Short - term view is "weak", medium - term and intraday views are "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves bio - diesel attributes, palm oil production and exports in Malaysia and Indonesia, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. - **Driving Factors**: It is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of October will increase by 3.5% month - on - month to 2.44 million tons, reaching a two - year high, and production may reach a seven - year high. Weak international crude oil prices and a stronger ringgit exchange rate have reduced the attractiveness and price competitiveness of palm oil. Demand is also weak, with India's palm oil imports in October dropping to a five - month low [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a plan to cut tariffs on Chinese goods by 50%, reducing the current 20% tariff to 10%, effective November 10 [1][3] - This tariff reduction is seen as a significant move in the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with implications for supply chains and employment [3][5] - The decision to extend the suspension of reciprocal tariffs until November 2026 indicates a strategic pause in the trade conflict, allowing both sides to negotiate further [5][9] Group 2 - The tariff cut is linked to the issue of fentanyl, with the U.S. suggesting that further tariff reductions could be contingent on China's control over fentanyl exports [3][11] - The extension of the tariff suspension and the exemption list, which includes 178 items ranging from children's products to solar panels, reflects a response to market demands and a trial of policy adjustments [5][11] - The temporary relief from port fees for Chinese ships and the suspension of U.S. countermeasures signal a broader attempt to ease trade tensions and foster cooperation [7][16] Group 3 - The U.S. is facing inflationary pressures, prompting a need to lower import costs for consumers and businesses, which the tariff reduction aims to address [13][14] - The retention of 10% tariffs serves as a bargaining chip for future negotiations, maintaining a level of uncertainty in U.S.-China relations [9][14] - The adjustments in trade policy are part of a larger strategy to maximize national interests, with both countries carefully navigating their positions in the ongoing negotiations [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. On Wednesday, ICE US cotton rose 1.38% to 65.95 cents/pound, and CF601 rose 0.41% to 13,620 yuan/ton. The current supply peak has passed, and supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose this year. Macro - level positive news, such as the confirmed meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea during the APEC meeting, gives hope for tariff policy adjustment. The bottom of Zhengzhou cotton has support, and upward drive depends on whether there will be unexpected progress during the APEC meeting [1]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress, and the concern about Indian exports is mainly emotional. Raw sugar has limited rebound under the background of increased production in the northern hemisphere and expected continued increase in Brazil's 26/27 sugar season. The news of restricted imports of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is still fermenting, and the spot trading is average. The futures market faces risks in further rebound, so it should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 rose on Wednesday. The main contract's open interest decreased by 596 lots to 578,500 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index rose by 10 yuan/ton. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks made the US dollar index strong. The confirmed meeting between Chinese and US leaders supports the US cotton price. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, and future macro and fundamental factors are likely to improve [1]. - **Sugar**: Spot sugar prices in different regions have different adjustments. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress. Raw sugar has limited rebound due to expected increased production. The news of restricted imports of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is fermenting, and the spot trading is average. The futures market is in a stalemate and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 5 with no change, the main contract basis is 1220 yuan/ton with a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1 yuan/ton, and the national spot price is 14,840 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 65 yuan/ton with an increase of 13 yuan/ton, the main contract basis is 256 yuan/ton with a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The Nanning and Liuzhou spot prices are both 5,750 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 17 to 2,471, and the number of effective forecasts was 882. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions are as follows: Xinjiang 14,650 yuan/ton, Henan 14,871 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,884 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,956 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.2, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.9, up 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 29, the Nanning and Liuzhou spot sugar prices were both 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 7,625, and the number of effective forecasts was 586 [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of cotton and sugar, as well as the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B. The data sources are Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][9][11][14][17]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many industry - related awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has also won many industry - related awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21].

Group 1: Research Views - ICE cotton rose 1.38% to 65.95 cents/pound on Wednesday, CF601 rose 0.41% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 596 lots to 578,500 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks strengthened the US dollar. The upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea is expected to support US cotton prices. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices have rebounded, and the current position has strong support. Supply pressure will gradually ease, and the domestic cotton supply-demand pattern is not very loose this year. The market anticipates tariff policy adjustments. Overall, the macro and fundamental factors are likely to improve, and the bottom of Zhengzhou cotton is supported. The upward drive depends on whether there will be unexpected progress during the APEC meeting [1]. - Sugar spot quotes vary among regions, with some adjustments. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress, and the current price is difficult to reflect India's exports. Raw sugar has limited rebound potential due to expected increases in production in the northern hemisphere and Brazil in the 26/27 season. In China, the news of restricted imports of syrup and premixed powder continues to ferment, and the spot trading volume is average. The futures market faces risks in further rebounds and is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is -5 with no change, the main contract basis is 1220, down 45. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 1, and the national spot price is 14,840 yuan/ton, up 10 [2]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 65, up 13, the main contract basis is 256, down 11. The Nanning and Liuzhou spot prices are both 5,750 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On October 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,471, down 17 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 882 [3]. - On October 29, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,650 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,871 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,884 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,956 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On October 29, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, unchanged; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 51.9, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29.9, up 0.1 [3]. - On October 29, the spot prices of sugar were 5,750 yuan/ton in Nanning and 5,750 yuan/ton in Liuzhou, both unchanged from the previous day [3]. - On October 29, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,625, down 70 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 586 [4]. Group 4: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won multiple awards, including the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and the "Best Agricultural and Sideline Products Chief Futures Analyst" [18]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass. She has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He won the title of senior analyst in textiles at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [20].