关税裁决引市场提前布局 金2026开年顺利走出强势形态 发布时间: 2026年1月9日 सेलिक 铝金从2025年5月讲入上涨通道以来整体跟随铂金 坛行,但2026年开年以来表现明显偏强,二者在高频数 据层面的分歧进一步放大。资金流向方面,把金 ETF 延 续流入态势,与铂金 ETF 的资金流出形成鲜明反差;市 场结构上,把金远期费率抬头,NYMEX 把金库存同步 累积,这一特征与铂金、白银的表现呈现分化。 我们认为今日把金的快速上涨,核心驱动力在于市 场提前交易美国关税政策调整的潜在预期。美国最高法 院即将对特朗普普遍关税的合法性作出裁决,若裁定该 关税违法,特朗普大概率将转向其他税收工具,此前市 场密切关注的232 调查落地概率将显著上升,把金作为 关键战略金属,加税预期下资金提前布局推升价格。 从中期逻辑看,铂把一季度趋势向上的判断并未改 变。从伦敦市场租借利率、远期费率及美国库存等高频 指标的整体水位观察,铂把现货端的结构性紧张格局并 未出现缓解迹象,现货紧平衡仍是支撑价格的核心基本 面。不过需要警惕的是, 铂把价格易跟随白银同步回撤, 且回撤幅度通常更大，叠加铂金日线双顶形态较为明显, 技术面上上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that the recent tariff increase on motorcycles imported from China to Mexico will have a limited direct impact on its existing business operations [1] Group 1: Business Model and Tariff Impact - The company's core business model effectively mitigates the risk of tariffs on complete vehicles by utilizing the IKD (Incomplete Knock Down) model, which involves exporting products in disassembled form for local assembly in Mexico [1] - The increase in tariffs to 35% on complete motorcycles imported from China does not apply to the company's current export operations due to the IKD model [1] Group 2: Impact on Related Products - The company anticipates that the impact on other related motorcycle products will also be minimal, as the definitions in the tariff legislation typically do not include "parts" or "kits" intended for assembly [1] - The company's current business structure is positioned to effectively buffer against the shocks from the recent tariff policy adjustments [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: -1 [78] - PTA: -1 [79] - MEG: 0 [80] - Iron Ore: -1 [54] - Rebar: 0 [56] - Hot Rolled Coil: 0 [56] - Ferrosilicon: 0 [60] - Manganese Silicon: 0 [60] - Coke: 0 [65] - Coking Coal: 0 [65] - Logs: 0 [70] - Rubber: 1 [82] - Synthetic Rubber: 0 [85] - Asphalt: -1 [90] - LLDPE: 0 [101] - PP: 0 [103] - Caustic Soda: 0 [105] - Pulp: 0 [110] - Glass: -1 [116] - Methanol: -1 [119] - Urea: 0 [124] - Styrene: -1 [127] - Soda Ash: -1 [130] - LPG: 0 [132] - Propylene: -1 [132] - PVC: 0 [140] - Fuel Oil: 0 [143] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 [143] - Container Shipping Index (European Route): 0 [145] - Short Fiber: -1 [158] - Bottle Chip: -1 [158] - Offset Printing Paper: 0 [161] - Pure Benzene: -1 [166] - Palm Oil: 0 [171] - Soybean Oil: 0 [171] - Soybean Meal: 0 [179] - Soybean: 0 [179] - Corn: 0 [182] - Sugar: -1 [186] - Cotton: 0 [191] - Eggs: 0 [195] - Hogs: 0 [197] - Peanuts: 0 [203] Core Views - Trump stated that immediate significant interest rate cuts would be a "litmus test" for selecting the new Fed chair and might adjust tariff policies to reduce the prices of some goods [7][8]. - For MEG, multiple plants' unplanned load reduction provides short-term support, but in the medium term, it faces a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9][80]. - Platinum and palladium's short - term and medium - term trends are different. In the short term, there is no basis for a sharp rise in platinum, while palladium shows better performance. In the medium term, the fundamental logic of a bullish outlook remains [12]. - In the short term, soybeans face many negative factors, but in the medium term, the downside space is limited, and the possibility of sideways oscillation is high [13][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. Silver has reached a new high, breaking through 60. The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and the Fed's attention to employment indicators shows mixed signals [20]. Copper - The price is under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar. The production of the Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) in 2026 will be lower than in 2024, and China's copper ore imports have increased [24]. Zinc - Pressure is gradually emerging. The US and China are promoting economic cooperation, and the US has approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China [27]. Lead - The domestic inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and there are signals about the Fed's interest rate cuts [30]. Tin - Supply has encountered new disturbances. There are various macro and industry news, including the recovery of the US "small non - farm" ADP [33]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum shows range - bound oscillation, alumina shows a downward oscillation trend, and cast aluminum alloy faces downward pressure. There is news about the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the adjustment of the labor market [36]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum has broken through the box range, and attention should be paid to the previous high. Palladium's bottom has been continuously rising. Trump has made statements about the Fed chair and tariff policies [39]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel's structural surplus has changed, but the contradiction in the game remains. Stainless steel's supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is strengthened. There are news about the Indonesian nickel mining industry and the suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian imports [43]. Energy and Chemicals Carbonate Lithium - Spot transactions are still weak, and the price shows a weak oscillation. The price of carbonate lithium has declined, and the sodium - ion battery industry is developing [48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The platform company for polysilicon has been established, and the market still focuses on buying on dips. The polysilicon powder quality improvement project of Tianhong Ruike has passed the acceptance [51]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The retail sales of the domestic passenger car market in November decreased year - on - year [54]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - The sector sentiment is weak, and the prices show low - level oscillation. The steel production, inventory, and demand data in November and December have changed [56]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Ferrosilicon is affected by supply - side information disturbances and shows wide - range oscillation. Manganese silicon's overseas miners have firm quotations and also shows wide - range oscillation. There are price and procurement news in the ferrosilicon and manganese silicon markets [60]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both show wide - range oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in November has improved [65]. Logs - The price shows low - level oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in November has improved [70]. PX, PTA, and MEG - PX is in a high - level oscillation market. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market with cost support. MEG has multiple plants reducing loads, with short - term support but a medium - term supply - demand imbalance [73]. Rubber - The price shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. The domestic heavy - truck sales in November decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market in the fourth quarter is weak [82]. Synthetic Rubber - The price shows range - bound operation. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [85]. Asphalt - The price shows a weak oscillation. The domestic asphalt production has increased, the inventory in factories has increased, and the inventory in social warehouses has decreased [90]. LLDPE - The price shows a unilateral decline, and the basis has turned positive passively. The raw material price oscillates, and the supply and demand situation is complex [101]. PP - The upstream selling pressure is high, and the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak [103]. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak [105]. Pulp - The price shows oscillating operation. The domestic pulp market is dull, with high inventory and weak demand [110]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of float - glass shows local adjustments, with a slight relaxation in supply and weak rigid - demand orders [116]. Methanol - The price is under pressure. The spot price has declined, and the inventory in ports may accumulate in December [119]. Urea - The price shows oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to inventory indicators. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the demand has shown phased improvement [124]. Styrene - The price shows short - term oscillation. The pure benzene market shows weak reality and strong expectation, and the supply and demand of styrene are relatively balanced [127]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The domestic soda - ash market is stable, with an expected increase in supply and general demand [130]. LPG and Propylene - LPG's short - term demand is strong, but it is under pressure in the long term. Propylene's supply is expected to increase, and the upward driving force is limited. There are price and production - capacity news in the LPG and propylene markets [132]. PVC - The price shows a weakening trend. The domestic PVC market has high supply and inventory, and short - term short - chasing is not advisable [140]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has weakened again, and the center of the price has moved down. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [143]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The price shows an oscillating market. The spot freight rate shows some changes, and the 02 contract may face a complex price trend, while the 04 contract is suitable for short - selling on rallies [145]. Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both face medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies. The short - fiber and bottle - chip markets show price and sales changes [158]. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and observe. The price of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, with high industry operation levels and weak demand [161]. Pure Benzene - The price shows short - term oscillation. The inventory of pure benzene in ports has increased, and the market shows weak reality and strong expectation [166]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - For palm oil, attention should be paid to the reaction after the MPOB report's negative factors are exhausted. Soybean oil shows an oscillating trend due to insufficient soybean - driven factors. There are production and supply - demand news in the palm - oil and soybean - oil markets [171]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - The USDA report is dull, and the soybean - meal price shows a low - level oscillation. The soybean price shows a rebound and oscillation. The CBOT soybean price has declined due to concerns about Chinese demand and the expected bumper harvest in South America [179]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot price. The price of corn in the spot market has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [182]. Sugar - The price shows a weakening trend. The sugar production in India and Brazil has increased, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [186]. Cotton - The price shows an oscillating and strengthening trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand. The domestic cotton - spot trading is average, and the price of cotton yarn is stable [191]. Eggs - The spot price shows an oscillating trend. The futures price of eggs has decreased, and the spot price is stable [195]. Hogs - The market is trading the winter - solstice expectation in advance. The spot price of hogs shows some changes, and there is news about warehouse - receipt registration [197]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price shows a slight decline [203].

Core Insights - The traditional year-end shopping season in the West, marked by "Black Friday," is witnessing a significant participation of Chinese goods, which are reshaping the global consumption landscape through technological empowerment and supply chain advantages [1][3] - The transition of Chinese exports from a "cost-driven" model to a "technology and culture integration" model is accelerating, necessitating a multi-faceted approach to meet challenges in the global market [1][13] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Amazon launched its "Black Friday" promotions on November 20, with other platforms like TikTok Shop and Temu also engaging in extensive promotional activities [3] - Chinese companies are experiencing a surge in orders, with a reported 60% year-on-year increase in lithium battery sales to the U.S. market [3] - The period from September to October saw a 20% to 30% increase in shipping volumes compared to the previous year, as businesses prepared for the holiday season [3] Group 2: Pricing and Discounts - Chinese brands are prominently featured in European retail, with significant discounts on products such as Xiaomi smartphones and Haier refrigerators, showcasing aggressive pricing strategies [4] - Discounts during "Black Friday" include Xiaomi's Redmi Note 14 Pro dropping from €399 to €219 and Haier's smart refrigerator from €999 to €679.99 [4] Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - New tariff policies in the EU, which eliminate the €150 threshold for tax exemptions on small packages, are seen as a direct challenge to Chinese e-commerce platforms [5] - The EU's decision is expected to impact the pricing and availability of Chinese goods, with similar policies being adopted in the UK and the U.S. [5][8] - The increase in tariffs is forcing many retailers to reduce the variety of products on promotion and lower discount levels, impacting overall sales strategies [5][9] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - A survey indicated that 61% of German consumers plan to increase their spending during "Black Friday," with an average budget of €312, and a significant preference for online shopping [7] - Consumers are expressing concerns that rising tariffs may lead to increased prices for Chinese goods, potentially reducing overall spending [6][8] Group 5: Future Trends - The export of Chinese goods is expected to evolve towards digitalization, greening, and service-oriented solutions, with a focus on high-growth potential sectors like green energy and smart hardware [13] - The shift in consumer preferences towards Chinese products is driven not only by price but also by innovation and variety, indicating a deeper market integration [10][13]

特朗普政府准备关税备用方案 早上好，先来看下重要消息。 在美国最高法院可能否决一项重要关税授权之际，据悉特朗普政府正暗中筹备备用方案，以期尽快恢复关税措施。 美国官员透露，商务部和美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）都已经研究了在法院裁决不利时的"B计划"选项，其中包括动用《贸易法》第301条和第 122条，这两项条款都赋予总统单方面加征关税的权力。 值得注意的是，在本月的口头辩论中，最高法院法官对特朗普的全球性关税显得颇为怀疑。 如果裁决不利，美国政府可能被迫返还已征收的880多亿美元关税。不过，有分析师表示："我预期他们（特朗普团队）会立刻行动，把关税再加 回来。他们基本上会把原来的政策再拼回去。" 波士顿联储主席柯林斯最新表态，美联储下个月降息概率几乎翻倍 波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示，继续认为通胀方面存在风险，温和限制性的政策有助于确保通胀下降。目前对美联储而言是复杂时期，政策观点存 在差异并不令人意外，仍认为有理由对12月降息持谨慎态度。 美国调整对巴西商品关税范围 据央视新闻消息，当地时间11月21日，巴西副总统阿尔克明表示，美国宣布取消对咖啡、肉类和水果等部分品类巴西商品征收40%附加关税，但 仍有约22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant adjustments in the U.S. tariff policy towards Brazilian goods, particularly the cancellation of a 40% additional tariff on certain products, which is seen as a major progress in bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and Brazil [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. has announced the cancellation of a 40% additional tariff on Brazilian coffee, meat, and fruits, while approximately 22% of Brazilian exports to the U.S. will still be affected by tariffs [3][4]. - This decision is part of ongoing negotiations between U.S. President Trump and Brazilian President Lula, with both sides expressing optimism about future discussions [8][10]. Economic Implications - The U.S. imported $42.3 billion worth of goods from Brazil in 2024, including around $8 billion in food products [6]. - The adjustments in tariffs are aimed at addressing domestic concerns over rising food prices, which have been a focus for the Trump administration in light of recent electoral outcomes [10]. Political Context - Trump's decision to modify tariffs is seen as a response to voter concerns and is intended to lower food prices in the U.S. [10]. - Brazilian President Lula views the tariff cancellation as a significant victory, emphasizing the importance of dialogue and diplomacy in achieving this outcome [10][11].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump signed an executive order to expand tariff exemptions on Brazilian agricultural products, including a 40% tariff removal on beef and coffee [1][3]. - The executive order, effective from November 13, exempts specific Brazilian agricultural products from tariffs, including beef, coffee, cocoa, tomatoes, and various fruits [3]. - This adjustment in tariff policy marks the second significant change in a week, following the removal of certain agricultural products from a 10% import tariff list [3]. Group 2 - The pressure of rising prices in the U.S. is a key factor driving the government's tariff adjustments, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3% year-on-year in September, and prices for beef, coffee, and tea increasing by over 10% [7]. - Brazil supplies about one-third of the coffee market in the U.S., and Brazilian beef, particularly for hamburgers, has become an important source for the U.S. market [7]. - Additionally, the executive order also cancels a 40% tariff on imported aircraft parts from Brazil [7].

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, leading to a stock increase of over 20% [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Automotive revenue increased by 47% to $1.1 billion, driven by higher vehicle deliveries and rising average selling prices, contributing to a consolidated revenue growth of 78% to approximately $1.6 billion [2] - The sales increase was partly due to customers purchasing vehicles before the expiration of EV tax credits at the end of September, with some customers utilizing leasing loopholes to benefit from these credits [3][6] - Management indicated that with the expiration of tax credits, they do not expect significant revenue from regulatory credits moving forward [5] Group 2: Cost Management - Recent policy changes have reduced tariff costs for Rivian, with the previous tariff impact of nearly $2,000 per vehicle expected to decrease to a few hundred dollars for new builds [7][8] - Although some vehicle inventory does not qualify for credits, management anticipates that new vehicle builds in the fourth quarter will benefit from the reduced tariff costs [9] Group 3: Profitability - Rivian achieved a consolidated gross profit of $24 million in the quarter, marking a $416 million improvement year-over-year, and this was the second quarter of gross profit for the year [10] - The automotive gross profit loss was $130 million, but this represented a $249 million improvement from the previous year, attributed to higher average selling prices and cost reductions [11] - The company reported $154 million in gross profit from software and services, a $167 million improvement from a loss in the prior year, largely due to a joint venture with Volkswagen [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The impact of eliminated tax credits may lead to lower vehicle sales in the next quarter, but the launch of the R2 model in the first half of 2026, priced around $45,000, could serve as a catalyst for growth [13] - Overall, Rivian appears to be navigating a challenging EV market effectively, as indicated by the positive quarterly results [14]

Core Viewpoint - Anker Innovations has confirmed its plan for a secondary listing in Hong Kong to enhance its global strategy and competitiveness, driven by over 96% of its revenue coming from overseas markets and a declining domestic market presence [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Anker Innovations, established in 2011, is a smart hardware device company that went public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in August 2020 [5]. - The company has maintained over 95% of its revenue from international markets for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Anker Innovations reported a revenue of 21.019 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%, and a net profit of 1.933 billion, up 31.34% [4][5]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was -865 million, a significant decline of 152.38% year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Global Strategy and Market Challenges - The decision to list in Hong Kong is part of Anker Innovations' strategy to expand its global presence and brand influence [4][5]. - The company faces challenges due to its heavy reliance on overseas markets, making it sensitive to changes in global trade environments [6]. - Anker Innovations has been affected by global tariff policy adjustments, leading to increased operational costs and cash flow pressures [6][7]. Group 4: Inventory and Supply Chain Management - As of September 30, 2025, Anker Innovations had an inventory balance of 6.147 billion, a 90.11% increase from the beginning of the year, attributed to preparations for potential tariff changes [7]. - The company has adopted strategies such as early stockpiling and supply chain adjustments to mitigate risks from potential tariff increases [6][7]. Group 5: Product Safety and Market Competition - Anker Innovations has faced multiple large-scale recalls in 2025 due to product safety issues, including a recall of over 710,000 power banks in June [8]. - The company’s main product categories include charging storage, smart innovation, and smart audio-visual products, with the charging storage segment achieving a revenue of 6.816 billion, a 37% increase year-on-year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing focus on artificial intelligence (AI) transactions is leading to both optimism and concerns among investors regarding potential asset bubbles and missed opportunities in other sectors [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Strong earnings reports have alleviated concerns despite accumulating economic warning signals [1] - Analysts suggest that as Wall Street concentrates on popular sectors, contrarian strategies may reveal overlooked investment opportunities [1] - A group of analysts from Bank of America raised a question about whether excessive focus on the AI sector might cause investors to overlook other opportunities [1] Group 2: Selected Stocks - Viking Cruises (VIK) stands out in the hotel service industry due to its differentiated, all-inclusive, destination-focused products, leading to superior financial performance and over 50% market share in the river cruise sector [2] - McCormick & Company (MKC) is expected to rebound from tariff policy adjustments, potentially benefiting from a tariff exemption and being one of the few companies in the packaged food sector to achieve organic sales and volume growth [2] - Dollar General (DG) is performing well due to the trend of consumers "trading down" in response to inflation, with an increase in basket size and a successful e-commerce strategy [3]