Group 1 - Wang Xiaoqing, the Vice President of China Merchants Bank, has resigned due to work reasons, effective from August 4, 2025, and has been appointed as the Party Secretary and prospective General Manager of China Merchants Jin Kong [1][2] - China Merchants Jin Kong, established in September 2022, is the third financial holding company approved in China, with total assets reaching 13 trillion yuan and managed assets exceeding 23 trillion yuan as of the end of 2024 [1] - Under Wang Xiaoqing's leadership, China Merchants Jin Kong reported an operating income of 507.5 billion yuan and a net profit of 160.28 billion yuan for the year 2024 [1] Group 2 - Wang Xiaoqing joined China Merchants Bank in 2020 and has held multiple leadership roles, including Chairman of several asset management subsidiaries [2] - The resignation of Wang Xiaoqing will lead to adjustments in the leadership of the subsidiaries he managed, including China Merchants Fund and China Merchants Life Insurance [2] - The independent director of China Merchants Bank, Tian Hongqi, has also resigned after completing a six-year term [3]

21世纪经济报道记者黄子潇深圳报道 8月4日晚间，招商银行发布公告称，该行副行长王小青因工作原因，向董事会提请辞去副行长职务。辞任自 2025 年 8 月 4 日起 生效。截至发稿，王小青的简历已经从招商银行官网撤下。 同日，21世纪经济报道记者从相关人士获悉，王小青已调任招商局金融控股有限公司（招商金控）担任党委书记，拟任总经 理。原招商金控总经理刘辉退休离任。 招商金控为招商局集团全资子公司。2022年9月，招商金控在深圳揭牌成立，成为继中信金控、北京金控后国内第三家获批设立 的金控公司。成立不到三年，招商金控已历经洪小源、刘辉两任总经理，两人分别来自招商证券和招商银行，王小青将成为第 三任。 招商金控旗下主要成员企业包括招商银行、招商证券、博时基金、招商仁和人寿、招商租赁、招商平安资产、招商资本等。 2024年，按风险并表口径，招商金控全年实现营业收入5075.0亿元，净利润1602.8亿元。截至2024年末，招商金控总资产规模达 13.0万亿元，管理资产规模（AUM）超23万亿元。 王小青进入招行体系时间不长，于2020年加入招行。本次调任招商金控，距离招行召开股东大会完成董事会换届、王小青正式 出任 ...

本期债券品种一全称为"广发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第三期)(品种 一)"，简称为"25 广发 05"，债券代码为"524393"，期限为 3 年;品种二全称为"广发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第三期)(品种二)"，简称为"25 广发 06"，债券代码 为"524394"，期限为 5 年。 本期债券发行规模合计不超过人民币 50 亿元(含)。 智通财经APP讯，广发证券(01776)公布，将于2025 年 8 月 6 日(T 日)至 2025 年 8 月 7 日(T+1 日)发行广 发证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第三期)。 ...

或可新增上百亿元财政收入 回顾过去，在我国债券市场发展初期，为鼓励投资者积极参与，对国债、地方债、金融债利息收入曾长期给予免税优惠。 2016年营业税改增值税之前，国债、金融机构购买的金融债券、政策性金融债是明确或实际操作中免征营业税的主要债券类型。2016年营改增试点全面推 开时，财政部、税务总局亦在文件中明确，国债、地方债、金融同业往来利息收入免收增值税。 本次政策变化后，国债、地方债利息所得税依然免征，但对8月8日后新券的利息要收6%的增值税。 华夏时报记者李明会北京报道 近日，财政部、税务总局就国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入增值税政策有关事项发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日期之后(含当日)新发 行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。 此次政策调整采用"新老划断"原则，对8月8日前已发行的相关债券利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 征税后，机构买债热情会降温吗？一位中小银行债券交易员对《华夏时报》记者直言"不会"。 如今恢复征税，背后有何深意？ 远东资信首席宏观研究员张林在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，从政策的背景上来看有两点。第一个原因是因为近两年债市呈现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic indicators and policy changes have led to a recovery in the bond market, with a notable decline in bond yields, particularly the 10-year government bond yield, which fell to approximately 1.70% [1][4][6]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced a general decline in yields across various maturities from July 25 to August 1, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.65 basis points [2][3]. - The issuance of government bonds totaled 672.435 billion yuan across 92 bonds, with significant demand for a 50-year special government bond issued at a competitive rate [8][9]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline, while the non-manufacturing index was at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points [19]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12]. Policy Changes - Starting August 8, a value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds, which may lead to a short-term boost in bond market activity but could also shift funds towards credit bonds in the long term [1][20]. - The Central Bank conducted a total of 16.632 billion yuan in reverse repos during the week, maintaining liquidity in the market [15][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Guojin Securities suggest that the new VAT on bond interest may lead to higher issuance rates for new bonds, creating a yield spread between new and existing bonds [21]. - Financial institutions anticipate continued monetary easing, with potential rate cuts expected to support the bond market, projecting that the 10-year government bond yield could trend towards 1.5% [21].

8月4日，我国债券市场迎来重大政策调整后的首个交易日。 受国债等债券利息收入恢复征税消息影响，国债期货市场不同交割月份的表现出现明显分化，远月合约 价格表现明显较弱。分析人士指出，国债期货市场表现分化，主要由于存量债券（老券）具有税收优 势，新券（新发行国债等债券）与老券的利差可能走阔。 远月合约领跌 8月4日，国债期货市场不同交割月份的表现分化明显。 截至发稿，2025年9月份交割的30年期国债期货价格上涨0.34%，2026年3月份交割30年期国债期货价格 的涨幅为0.13%，相对较弱。2025年9月份交割的10年期国债期货价格上涨0.10%，而2026年3月份交割 的10年期国债期货价格下跌0.21%。5年期、2年期国债期货不同交割月份的合约价格同样出现明显分 化。 2024年在宽货币环境下，国债到期收益率总体呈现出下行趋势，除了"9·24行情"曾引起债券市场脉冲式 调整，全年几乎呈现出单边下行趋势。在此情况下，30年期国债期货2024年上涨了17.77%，10年期国 债期货2024年的涨幅也达到5.92%。2025年初，债券市场继续走牛，但随后保持震荡走势。 在目前这个阶段恢复征收国债等债券利息收入的 ...

尽管无人将9月会议作为基本情景下的加息时点，但在风险情境下，约四分之一受访者认为加息可能提前至下月。约60%认为最早10月可能启动加息。 十月成为日本央行最热门的加息时机 智通财经APP注意到，随着美国总统特朗普宣布包括美日贸易协定在内的多项协议，市场对日本贸易前景的预期趋于明朗，日本央行观察人士纷纷提前对下 次加息的预测时点。 最新调查显示，在45位受访经济学家中，约42%预计日本央行将在10月加息，较前次调查的32%显著上升。该调查于7月22日美日贸易协定公布前及日本央 行政策会议前进行。预测明年1月加息的比例微降至三分之一，而预计12月加息的比例翻倍至11%。 日本央行在上周四发布的季度展望报告中，将本财年通胀预测从2.2%大幅上调至2.7%。相较于三个月前仅看到下行风险，央行现在认为物价风险总体平 衡。 | BOJ July forecasts | Core-CPI | Core-core | | --- | --- | --- | | FY25 | 2.7% | | | FY26 | 1.8% | | | FY27 | 2% | | 但植田和男在会后记者会上淡化了报告中的鹰派倾向，反复强调不确定性虽 ...

市场大幅增加降息定价，美元资产波动显著：美元资产快速定价了降息预期的回升和经济的走弱。 CME数据显示联邦基金利率期货交易者预期2025年在9月、10月、12月出现3次降息，累计75BP，比7月 FOMC会后的降息概率显著回升。资产方面，标普500、纳斯达克和道琼斯指数均明显下跌;10年期美债 数据的疑点：BLS对下修的解释主要是季节性因子调整和后续回收问卷显示就业下滑，但其实不难看出 6月下修的就业近半源自于非正常性的"州和地方政府教育岗位"，该数据不仅不受企业诞生倒闭模型的 影响，受季节性调整影响也有限，因此政府数据为何突然下调就业并不清楚。而问卷回收率虽然一般， 但实际上也好于去年同期，并不能解释如此大幅的数据波动。 质量降低的劳动数据自身未必可以有效辅助美联储决策：虽然中国银河证券此前持续支出非农就业存在 高估，但两个月下修25.8万个就业在该数据的历史上也实属异常(有异常事件和天气的月份除外)。中国 银河证券倾向于非农就业本月的下修和此前的高估一样存在夸大，但本月数据反映的问题不光是劳动市 场的进一步下滑，更重要的是BLS劳动数据的质量问题也在加剧，这其实不利于美联储依据数据做出决 策。考虑到薪资回 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Zhu Haibin, has left the firm to join the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) as Assistant President for Economic Research, effective October 1, 2025 [1][3] - Zhu Haibin has extensive experience in economic research, holding degrees from Peking University, the People's Bank of China, and Duke University, and has previously worked at the Bank for International Settlements [3] - The HKMA was established on April 1, 1993, and its main functions include maintaining monetary stability, promoting a stable financial system, and managing the Exchange Fund [3] Group 2 - In May, Zhu Haibin raised China's economic growth forecast following Sino-U.S. trade talks, indicating a significant policy adjustment in China [4] - The departure of Zhu Haibin follows a trend of high-level exits in the securities sector, including the resignation of executives from Daiwa Securities and Standard Chartered Securities in July [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll data indicates a decline in employment market resilience, suggesting a potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September if inflation does not exceed expectations in the coming months [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The significant downward revisions of employment numbers for May and June were attributed to seasonal adjustments and new feedback from surveyed companies, with May's employment revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June's by 133,000 to 14,000, marking the largest revision since the pandemic [1][2]. - The employment growth is primarily supported by the education and healthcare sectors, with July adding 79,000 jobs in these areas, while other sectors showed negative growth, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and manufacturing, which lost 11,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The duration of unemployment has increased, with a notable rise in the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits and those unemployed for over 27 weeks since 2025, indicating a growing challenge in job recovery [3][4]. - The labor force participation rate has declined due to reduced immigration, contributing to a lower unemployment rate despite weak job growth, as the labor supply has tightened [4]. Wage Growth and Economic Outlook - Wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings in the private sector increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month in July, alongside a 0.9% rise in the labor cost index for Q2 [4]. - The weak employment data enhances the feasibility of interest rate cuts, with market expectations for rate reductions increasing to approximately 2.7 times within the year, influenced by the recent employment figures and manufacturing PMI [5].