更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 开年风格如何判断? 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年 1 月 A 股市场风格的最新观点是什么? 基于四象限风格轮动模型,1月份在成长价值维度上暂时维持对价值风格占优的 判断,但略微向成长风格倾斜。从市场情绪来看,投资者对价值风格偏好较强, 而从市场状态(即风格动量)来看,成长风格略微占优。宏观指标则显示成长和 争 狗 - ● 量化策略综合评分显示,价值风格偏好减弱,但短期内价值风格可能仍占 优。大小盘方面,由看好大盘转为均衡偏小盘,小盘股或中小盘股短期内 可能略微占优,宏观环境和市场情绪是主要驱动因素。 资产配置方面,相对看好国内股票资产,对商品持中性态度,债券相对谨 ● 慎。宏观预期差角度对股票和商品持谨慎态度,对债券中性:左侧择时维 度对股票市场持乐观态度;技术面阻力支撑维度认为市场顶部存在一定阻 力。 行业轮动模型显示目前处于快速轮动状态,12月模型持仓行业跑输基准 . 0.7%,但 2025年全年组合收益率跑赢基准 11 个百分点。2026年 1 月推 荐行业包括银行、建材、计算机。综合金融、煤炭及综合。 紧急积极成长型策略表现最忧 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 廖市无双:马年春节,"红包"能有多大?20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年市场的整体走势如何? 2026 年的市场整体走势较为强势,超出预期。回顾 2025年 12 月中下旬的表现, 尤其是 A500 指数的规模骤增,以及光模块和商业航天板块的强劲表现,推动了 中证 500、中证 1,000 和国证 2000 等成长指数向上挑战前高。这种强势从个别 指数传导至整个市场,使得中线格局向上的判断较为一致。短期内可能会出现震 荡或调整,但整体趋势依然看好。 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 市场向上的主要驱动力是什么? 市场向上的主要驱动力有三个:首先是 A500 指数的强劲表现。2024年 12 月 10 日至 28 日期间,A500 在两周内增加了接近 700 亿份,其中圣诞节一周增加了接 近 400 亿份。其次是商业航天板块的火爆,这推动了中证 1.000 和国证 2000 等 成长指数走强。最后是光模块板块持续创新高,自 2024年12月8日 AI ETF 发 行上市以来,成为坚定买入力量的重要组成部分。这三股力量共同 ...

2026 年 01 月 04 日 经济指标出现转弱，PPI 关注度维持 最高 ——量化资产配置月报 202601 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 量 化 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 提升红利、低波配置。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济出现转弱、流动性略偏松，信用指 标略好，微观映射中经济（盈利预期）继续为正但强度偏弱、未触发修正，流动性也未触 发修正，信用继续修正为偏弱，因此宏观各维度的方向继续为经济偏弱、流动性偏松和信 用收缩。本期我们继续主要按照对经济不敏感、对信用不敏感来选择得分前三的因子，宏 观部分选择以盈利、红利为主，红利得分明显提高；沪深 300 中盈利为共振因子，中证 500、中证 1000 中低波都成为共振因子。 ⚫ 大类资产配置观点：黄金配置比例维持高位。结合当前指标，修正后目前经济偏弱、流动 性 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 转债市场周报 春躁期间转债估值仍有提升空间 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-0.27%，价格中位数-0.50%， 我们计算的算术平均平价全周-0.75%，全市场转股溢价率与上周相比 +0.74%。个券层面，天创（控制权变更）、茂莱（精密光学）、利柏（核 电）、宏微（功率半导体）、宏图（卫星互联网）转债涨幅靠前；浩瀚 （网络可视化）、嘉美（控制权变更）、华医（半导体洁净室）、凯盛 （氯化亚砜&已公告强赎）、瑞达（非银&已公告强赎）转债跌幅靠前。 上周市场焦点（12 月 29 日-12 月 31 日） 观点及策略（1 月 5 日-1 月 9 日） 看好春躁期间权益行情，正股预期走强+季节效应下转债估值有小幅提 升空间，择券重视正股业绩弹性，临期转债考虑参与正股： 股市层面看，12 月股市风险偏好较高，但考虑到年末排名、回归业绩基 准等因素，资金更倾向于选择筹码简单、相对低位的新领域（商业航天）、 近期排产较好一季度业绩预期较佳的电池、以及有期货价格参考支撑的 聚酯产业链、有色金属等方向，而有泡沫化争议且受纳指影响较大的 AI 算力、刺激政策 ...

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for A-shares after the New Year, driven by the recent gains in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index, suggesting a high probability of a positive market opening [2][3] - The report highlights three key factors that previously supported the continuous rise of A-shares: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the sustained strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector, though their continuation post-holiday remains uncertain [2][3] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and avoid chasing prices, while being prepared to increase allocations if a buying opportunity arises similar to the "golden pit" seen in early 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic analysis predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, indicating a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [4] - Economic activities in December are expected to accelerate, supported by both domestic and external demand, with a reasonable chance of achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [4] - Industrial production is identified as a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is projected to see a slight recovery, although automotive sales are expected to face challenges due to declining volumes and increased discounts [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for January 2026 [6]. Core Insights - The report identifies several key companies within the technology sector, including Eastcompeace, Jincheng Electronics, Xinyi Technology, Tax Friend, Haiguang Information, Giant Network, and Perfect World, as potential investment opportunities [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Eastcompeace**: The company is entering a growth phase driven by AI technology breakthroughs, leading to increased capital expenditure from cloud vendors and a surge in demand for data servers. The acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics enhances its position in optical communication [8]. - **Jincheng Electronics**: The company reported a revenue of 889 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. The semiconductor business is expected to grow significantly, with an order backlog of approximately 1.791 billion yuan [9]. Communication - **Xinyi Technology**: As a leading manufacturer of high-speed optical modules, the company has made significant inroads with major clients like Amazon and is expected to see substantial profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 94.97 million yuan, 166.16 million yuan, and 217.76 million yuan respectively [10]. - **Huafeng Technology**: The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand for AI applications and is expected to see net profits grow from 3.53 million yuan in 2025 to 8.73 million yuan by 2027 [10]. Computer - **Tax Friend**: The company is a leader in the financial IT sector, leveraging AI and big data to provide comprehensive solutions for businesses. It aims to enhance its product offerings and customer engagement through innovative AI-driven solutions [11]. - **Haiguang Information**: The company is a key player in the domestic high-end CPU market, expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power. It aims to establish a comprehensive AI computing platform [12]. Media - **Giant Network**: The company is experiencing stable commercialization with new game releases and updates expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth [13]. - **Perfect World**: The company is preparing for the launch of its new game "Yihuan," which has shown strong pre-launch interest, and is also focusing on expanding its esports business [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The acquisition of Manus by Meta is seen as a pivotal moment for the export of AI applications from China, marking a "Davis Double" moment for the industry [11][27] - Manus is recognized as the first general-purpose AI agent product to achieve an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $100 million, showcasing its significant market potential [14] - The report highlights the rapid growth in revenue and active users for Chinese AI applications in overseas markets, indicating a strong commercial outlook [22][27] Summary by Sections 1. Manus and AI Application Export - Manus's acquisition by Meta redefines the export paradigm for AI applications, emphasizing customization and differentiated service experiences [11][14] - The product features a tiered subscription model catering to various user needs, with prices ranging from $20 to $200 per month [14] 2. Industry News - Meta has accelerated its AI strategy by acquiring Manus, aiming to enhance its AI capabilities and integrate advanced technologies into its product offerings [29] - The Ministry of Education plans to promote AI literacy across different educational stages, aligning with the industry's growth [30] 3. Company News - United Optoelectronics plans to acquire Dongguan Changyi Optoelectronics for 260 million yuan, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities [34] 4. Market Review - The report notes that the computer sector (CITIC) rose by 0.80% during the week of December 29 to December 31, while the broader indices saw declines [36]

Group 1 - In 2025, private equity firms held over 3.34 billion shares of listed ETFs, with technology sector ETFs accounting for over 30% of the total holdings [2] - The top three private equity firms by ETF holdings were Zhufeng Asset with 280 million shares, followed by Zhongyi Asset and Shanghai Binghao Private Equity, each holding 176 million shares [2] - The National Silver LOF fund has issued a risk warning regarding its secondary market price, which has been trading at a significant premium over its net asset value [2] Group 2 - In 2026, two companies, Derun Electronics and Jintongling, were flagged for financial fraud, with Derun Electronics having fabricated over 500 million yuan in receivables [3] - Over 80 A-share companies were investigated for disclosure violations in 2025, with about 40% being ST companies [3] - The regulatory environment in China's capital markets has become stricter, reflecting the ongoing commitment to rigorous oversight since the introduction of the "New National Nine Articles" [3] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO, Greg Abel, has been given full decision-making authority, with Warren Buffett expressing confidence in the company's future [4] - Following Buffett's retirement, Berkshire's stock price fell by 1.4%, raising concerns about the company's future performance under new leadership [4] - Buffett stated that he would continue to participate in company meetings but would no longer speak publicly, leaving his role to Abel [4] Group 4 - The National Supercomputing Internet platform has surpassed 1 million registered users, integrating over 30 national supercomputing and intelligent computing centers [5] - The platform has developed the largest computing power network in the country, offering 70 types of computing services for various applications [5] Group 5 - SAIC Motor Corporation reported sales of 4.507 million vehicles in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, with electric vehicle sales reaching 1.643 million, up 33.1% [8] Group 6 - Century Huatong plans to repurchase shares worth between 300 million and 600 million yuan to implement employee stock ownership plans [16] - Nine Ding New Materials announced an investment of 246 million yuan to build a large-scale wind turbine blade production line, aligning with industry trends [19] - Baolong Oriental expects a net profit increase of 46.34% to 70.73% for 2025, driven by strong order volumes and improved production capacity [20]

祝各位老铁2026年多抓牛股，翻倍！ 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 2025年完美收官！微盘股大涨80%，创业板指涨50%，北证50、中证2000、科创50指数大涨超35%， 上证指数全年涨近20%，是让投资者大喊"好爽"的一年！ 指数走强，更是孕育出多只大牛股，今年以来有超600只A股走出涨幅翻倍行情，更有4只年内涨超10 倍。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | > | 区间涨跌幅 [起始交易日期]2025-0 ... 截止交易日期 最新 [复权方式]前复权 [单位]% | 所属申万行业名称(2021) [行业类别全部 [截止日期]量新(2025-12-31) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 688585.SH | 上纬新材 | > | 1.820.2897 | 基础化工-塑料-合成树脂 | | 2 | 605255.SH | 天普股份 | > | | 1,645.3488 汽车-汽车零部件-底盘与发动机系统 | | 3 | 920116.BJ | 星图测控 | > | | 1,611.9637 计算机-IT服务Ⅱ -IT服务Ⅲ ...

2026 年 01 月 04 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈艺鑫 S0350525010003 chenyx03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 若人民币汇率持续升值，风格行业如何选择 ——策略周报专题 最近一年走势 相关报告 鹏》——2025-06-17 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、人民币强升值或弱升值期间，配置什 么风格或行业胜率弹性较高？2、当下应该关注哪些性价比较高的行业？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《投资黄金如何增强收益——策略周报*陈艺鑫， 胡国鹏》——2025-09-28 《策略周报：反内卷行情有望进入第二阶段*陈艺 鑫，袁稻雨》——2025-08-24 《投资红利如何增强收益-——红利系列报告*陈艺 鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-07-25 《基于"三步走"的黄金交易策略*陈艺鑫，胡国 《我国财政货币双宽松下，大类资产如何配置*陈 艺鑫，胡国鹏》——2025-03-09 1、根据内需经济复苏强弱，将 2015 年 811 汇改后人民币升值阶段 ...