Core Insights - The report highlights a significant health insurance gap for the "sick population" in China, driven by aging demographics, the younger onset of chronic diseases, and advancements in medical technology that extend patient lifespans [1][3][18] Group 1: Health Insurance Gap - The average medical expenditure for the sick population is 87,625 yuan, which is 2.1 times the annual disposable income of residents [5] - Nearly 30% of the sick population is denied insurance coverage due to health disclosures [1][8] - By the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China is expected to exceed 300 million, accounting for 22% of the total population, with 75% of this group suffering from at least one chronic disease [3][4] Group 2: Rising Chronic Diseases - The incidence of type 2 diabetes among individuals aged 15-39 has doubled from 1990 to 2021, making it difficult for many young people to obtain health insurance at standard rates [4][11] - The five-year survival rate for cancer patients has improved from 33.3% a decade ago to 43.7%, indicating a growing need for insurance among long-term survivors [4][14] Group 3: Financial Burden and Willingness to Pay - Over 60% of major disease patients pay more than 100,000 yuan out-of-pocket for medical expenses, with the average monthly medication cost for the sick population at 526.85 yuan [7][8] - 75.4% of the sick population is willing to pay additional premiums for coverage of existing conditions, with an average annual willingness to pay around 4,049 yuan [6][8] Group 4: Insurance Product Insights - The report indicates a significant gap in insurance products for specific demographics, such as young adults and mothers, with many expressing a clear need for coverage but facing limited options [10][12] - Innovations in insurance products are emerging, including simplified health disclosures and coverage for pre-existing conditions, which are becoming trends in the market [14][15] Group 5: Recommendations for Development - The report suggests that government policies should support the inclusion of sick population insurance in inclusive insurance categories and promote data sharing for precise pricing [17] - Companies are encouraged to invest resources into developing targeted products for the sick population and to leverage big data and AI for underwriting and risk management [17][18]

Core Insights - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) has a market capitalization of $41.1 billion and operates as a global insurance company providing services to commercial, institutional, and individual clients across North America and international markets [1] - AIG is categorized as a "large-cap" stock and operates through three main segments: North America Commercial, International Commercial, and Global Personal, offering a diverse range of insurance products [2] Stock Performance - AIG shares have declined over 13% from their 52-week high of $88.07 and have decreased 5.8% over the past three months, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite's 8.5% increase during the same period [3] - Year-to-date, AIG stock is up 5.2%, significantly lagging behind the Nasdaq Composite's 20.5% gain, and has dipped marginally over the past 52 weeks compared to the Nasdaq's 21.1% return [4] Financial Results - In Q3 2025, AIG reported an adjusted EPS of $2.20, which was better than expected; however, shares fell 5.4% the following day due to weaker GAAP earnings of $0.93 per share and a 21% drop in total net investment income to $772 million [5] - The decline in net premiums written by 2% and the impact of net realized and unrealized losses related to AIG's Corebridge stake contributed to investor concerns [5] Competitive Landscape - AIG's rival, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B), has outperformed AIG, with BRK.B stock returning 12.2% year-to-date and 5.3% over the past 52 weeks [6] - Despite AIG's underperformance, analysts maintain a moderately optimistic outlook, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a mean price target of $88.86, indicating a potential upside of nearly 16% from current levels [6]

ab 28 November 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy 3Q25 results season wrap - market liquidity and anti-involution lifting earnings estimates Improved topline growth with divergent trends in sector margins MSCI China's 3Q25 revenue growth accelerated slightly to 2% YoY while earnings growth was sustained at 4% YoY. Post the results season, consensus earnings were revised up in the past month, most notably in non-bank financials. From a sector perspective, non-bank financials and tech continued to pos ...

Summary of Key Points from the Global Machine Learning Conference - 2025 Industry and Company Involvement - The conference was hosted by J.P. Morgan, focusing on advancements in machine learning and AI applications across various sectors, particularly in financial services and investment management [4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Agentic AI and ROI**: IBM discussed the transformation of enterprise value creation through agentic AI, emphasizing the need for strong governance and ethical oversight to manage risks associated with autonomous decision-making [10][20]. 2. **Synthetic Data Challenges**: École Polytechnique highlighted the limitations of synthetic data in financial modeling, stressing the importance of rigorous evaluation to ensure model suitability for finance [15][17]. 3. **AI Regulations in Financial Services**: J.P. Morgan outlined the complexities of implementing AI regulations, focusing on risk management, transparency, and the need for cross-organizational collaboration to adapt to evolving regulatory frameworks [20][22]. 4. **Responsible AI Development**: UBS Asset Management presented on building responsible AI agents, emphasizing the importance of privacy, evaluation, and risk management in AI systems [25][27]. 5. **Integration of LLMs with Classical AI**: J.P. Morgan's research on large language models (LLMs) showed that combining LLMs with classical AI tools enhances reliability in complex reasoning tasks [29][31]. 6. **Adaptive Allocation Engines**: Mediobanca discussed the use of adaptive allocation engines that integrate machine learning with traditional portfolio management strategies to improve asset allocation [34][36]. 7. **AI in Investment Management**: A fireside chat with quant experts emphasized the importance of explainability, trust, and data quality in AI applications for investment management, highlighting the risks of over-reliance on AI systems [39][41]. 8. **Combining Classical Statistics with ML**: Millennium presented on NeuralBeta and NeuralFactors, showcasing how hybrid approaches can enhance financial modeling and risk estimation [43][45]. 9. **AI in Insurance**: AXA discussed the dual nature of AI in insurance, focusing on its transformative potential and the associated technical and societal risks that require careful management [48][50]. 10. **Alpha Generation**: A panel discussion explored whether alpha in investment management is driven more by alternative data or machine learning, emphasizing the need for high-quality data and advanced ML techniques [52][54]. Additional Important Insights - The conference featured approximately 140 investors from around 80 institutions, indicating a strong interest in the intersection of AI and finance [4]. - The discussions highlighted the ongoing evolution of AI technologies and their implications for various sectors, particularly in enhancing decision-making processes and risk management strategies [39][48]. - The importance of ethical considerations and compliance in AI development was a recurring theme, reflecting the industry's growing focus on responsible AI practices [20][25]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Global Machine Learning Conference, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape in AI applications within the financial sector.

ab 29 November 2025 William Deng Economist william-w.deng@ubs.com +852-2971 6765 Global Research Equity Strategy Hong Kong Angus Chan Analyst angus.chan@ubs.com +852-2971 7530 Perry Yeung Analyst perry.yeung@ubs.com +852-2971 6349 John Lam, CFA Analyst john-za.lam@ubs.com +852-2971 6358 Mark Leung Analyst mark.leung@ubs.com +852-2971 8636 Helen Li, CFA Analyst helen-za.li@ubs.com +852-2971 6066 Charles Zhou Analyst charles.zhou@ubs.com +852-3712 3887 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limi ...

Corebridge Financial Overview - Corebridge Financial, Inc. (NYSE:CRBG) is recognized as one of the 14 Best Up and Coming Dividend Stocks to Buy [1] - The company offers a range of retirement solutions and insurance products, including annuities, life insurance, and retirement plans for institutional clients [5] Recent Performance and Financials - Corebridge reported strong quarterly results, generating $12.3 billion in premiums and deposits, a recent high [3] - The company ended the quarter with $1.8 billion in liquidity, which includes partial proceeds from a variable annuities (VA) reinsurance deal [3] - Corebridge returned $509 million to shareholders during the period, including $381 million in share repurchases, resulting in an 80% year-to-date payout ratio [4] Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang downgraded Corebridge from Overweight to Equal Weight, lowering the price target from $39 to $33, citing a "less attractive" outlook for the shares [2] - Huang noted that potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could negatively impact the company's base spread income and highlighted fewer near-term catalysts following the completion of the VA reinsurance transaction [2][4] Strategic Changes - The VA reinsurance transaction has simplified Corebridge's structure, improved its risk profile, and strengthened earnings quality while supporting long-term growth potential [4]

Core Insights - Jackson Financial Inc. (NYSE:JXN) is recognized as one of the 14 Best Up and Coming Dividend Stocks to Buy [1] - Morgan Stanley has reduced its price target for Jackson Financial from $106 to $101 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, citing stronger life insurance earnings despite recent share price movements [2] - The company reported total revenues of $1.4 billion in Q3 2025, a decline of 33.2% year-over-year, but retail annuity sales increased by 2% to $5.4 billion [3] - CEO Laura Prieskorn announced a $1 billion increase in share repurchase authorization and confirmed a fourth-quarter dividend of $0.80 per share, with expectations for capital returns to exceed the 2025 target range of $700 million to $800 million [4] Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $1.4 billion, down 33.2% from the previous year [3] - Retail annuity sales reached $5.4 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase [3] - Variable annuity sales rose to $2.9 billion, an 8% increase from Q3 2024 [3] Capital Management - Free capital generation was reported at $1 billion, with free cash flow totaling $719 million over the first three quarters [4] - Quarterly distributions to the holding company for the first nine months amounted to approximately $815 million [4] - The company has increased its share repurchase authorization by $1 billion [4]

Core Insights - Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (NYSE:FIHL) is recognized as one of the 14 Best Up and Coming Dividend Stocks to Buy [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its price target for FIHL to $17 from $16.50 while maintaining a Sell rating after reviewing the company's third-quarter results [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, FIHL reported revenue of $652 million, a 5% decline year-over-year, and approximately $25 million below analyst expectations [3] - Gross premiums written increased to $797.5 million, reflecting a 7.5% growth compared to Q3 2024 [3] - The combined ratio improved to 79.0%, down from 87.4% a year ago, indicating better operational efficiency [3] - Net income was reported at $130.5 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, while operating net income was $126.8 million, or $1.21 per diluted share [3] Capital Return and Outlook - The company returned $47.3 million to investors in the quarter, comprising $31.9 million in share repurchases and $15.4 million in dividends [4] - Management reaffirmed its outlook for full-year top-line growth of 6% to 10%, expressing confidence in maintaining profitable momentum [4] Company Overview - FIHL operates as a global specialty insurer and reinsurer, focusing on value creation through disciplined capital deployment, selective underwriting, and long-term partnerships [5]

Core Insights - Enact Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACT) is recognized as one of the 14 best up-and-coming dividend stocks to buy [1] - JPMorgan has maintained a neutral stance on Enact, reducing its price target from $40 to $39 following the company's Q3 update [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Enact reported total revenue of $311.4 million, a slight increase from $309.5 million year-over-year [3] - Premiums for the quarter were $244.6 million, down from $249 million in the same period last year [3] - The company held $339 million in cash and cash equivalents and $311 million in invested assets as of September 30, indicating stability in financial position [3] Insurance Metrics - New insurance written reached $14 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 6% increase from Q2 2025 and a 3% increase from Q3 2024 [4] - Monthly premium policies constituted 97% of the new insurance volume, while purchase originations accounted for 93% [4] - Primary insurance in force rose to $272 billion, compared to $270 billion in the previous quarter and $268 billion a year ago [4] Shareholder Returns - Enact emphasized its commitment to shareholder returns, distributing $31 million in dividends during the quarter [4] - The company continues to support lenders by backing mortgage loans, facilitating access to homeownership for more borrowers [5]

Core Points - Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited has declared quarterly dividends for its preferred shares, with specific amounts and payment dates outlined [1] - The company plans to redeem all outstanding Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series I, and Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series J, on December 31, 2025 [2] - Fairfax operates primarily in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance, along with investment management through its subsidiaries [2] Summary by Category Dividends - Series I preferred shares will receive a dividend of C$0.207938, payable on December 31, 2025, with a record date of December 15, 2025 [1] - Series J preferred shares will receive a dividend of C$0.34727, payable on December 30, 2025 [1] - Series K preferred shares will receive a dividend of C$0.315313, payable on December 31, 2025 [1] Redemption Plans - Fairfax intends to redeem all outstanding Series I and Series J preferred shares on December 31, 2025 [2] Company Overview - Fairfax is a holding company engaged in property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, and investment management through its subsidiaries [2]