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固定收益部市场日报-20251022
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-10-22 08:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, new issues, and macro - economic news. It maintains a buy recommendation on the FAEACO 12.814 Perp bond, which has gained about 20 pts in the past two weeks [2]. - SoftBank Group's new bond issues are analyzed, with estimated fair values for SOFTBK 61s and SOFTBK 65s at around 7.6% and 8.4% respectively [4][8][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the TW lifers/BBLTB sub curve/HYUELE curve/PETMK curve tightened by 1 - 3 bps. There were two - way flows on JP/KR/AU front - end FRNs from PBs [2]. - Japanese insurance hybrids and AT1s edged 0.1 pt firmer with light flows, while Yankee AT1s opened cautiously in London. BNP papers recovered after a previous plunge [2]. - Chinese IG benchmarks tightened by 1 - 2 bps. In Greater China higher - beta space, NWDEVL 28 - 31s were up 0.6 - 1.5 pts, but NWDEVL Perps were down 0.3 - 1.3 pts. FAEACO 12.814 Perp gained 0.4 pt [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s decreased by 0.4 - 0.6 pt after Moody's downgrade. YUZHOU 27 lost 0.7 pt. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27 - 29s led the space and rose 3.2 - 4.4 pts [2]. - In LGFV space, there were mixed, light two - way flows. RMs and AMs were topping up IG USD and AAA - guaranteed issues, and flows on higher - yielding papers were sporadic [3]. Morning Update - This morning, the new ASBBNK 4.155 30 tightened 1 bp from initial issuance at T + 60, and ASBBNK Float 30 tightened 10 bps from RO at SOFR+90. The new GSCCOR 4.25 30 tightened 1 bp from pricing at T + 77 [4]. - The new GEZHOU 4.25 Perp traded up to 0.1 pt higher with light flows. SOFTBKs were unchanged, and LGELECs were unchanged after S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers included VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 (price 69.2, change 4.4) and NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30 (price 72.7, change 1.5). Top underperformers included NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 48.8, change - 1.3) and YUZHOU 7 06/30/27 (price 12.0, change - 0.7) [5]. Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, the S&P was flat (+0.00%), the Dow rose 0.47%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.16%. UST yields were lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.45%/3.56%/3.98%/4.55% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments on SoftBank - SoftBank Group proposes to issue 35.5NC5.5 and 40NC10 Reg S USD subordinated bonds (S&P: B+) and 37NC7 EUR subordinated bonds for general corporate purposes [8]. - The fair value of the new SOFTBK 61 (first call Apr'31) is estimated at around 7.6% vs IPT at 7.875% - 8%, and for the new SOFTBK 65 (first call Oct'35) at around 8.4% vs IPT at 8.5% - 8.625% [9]. - The bonds have step - up mechanisms, and will receive 50% equity credit from S&P and JCR until the first reset date. SoftBank has a track record of calling its bonds on the first call date [10]. - In Jun'25, SoftBank's investment portfolio was valued at about USD269.6 bn, with 76% in listed shares (about USD205 bn). It held cash of about USD25.3 bn and standalone net debts of about USD45.9 bn, with an LTV ratio of 17.0% [11][12]. - While it has completed refinancing for the current fiscal year, there is a medium - term refinancing requirement in 2028 - 31, but it has access to diverse funding channels [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced new issues include ASB Bank (USD500/300 mn, 5 - year, 4.155%/SOFR+90), China Energy Overseas Investment (USD100/100 mn, 3 - year/PerpNC5, 3.8%/4.25%), GS Caltex Corporation (USD300 mn, 5 - year, 4.25%), and Republic of Kazakhstan (USD1500 mn, 5 - year, 4.412%) [16]. - Pipeline new issues include Avation Plc, China Three Gorges Corporation, Softbank Group, and The Republic of Korea with various tenors and coupon rates [17]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, there were 158 onshore credit bonds issued with an amount of RMB156 bn. Month - to - date, 910 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB889 bn, a 31.1% yoy increase [18]. - S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable, and the Republic of Indonesia is looking to price 5 - year/10 - year dim sum bonds tomorrow [18]. - Other corporate news includes S&P revising the outlook of Japfa Comfeed to stable from negative, NWD denying LME on perps, San Miguel obtaining a USD1.5 bn syndicated loan, Sun Hung Kai Properties announcing a USD10 bn debt instruments issuance programme, and Woodside Energy's 9M25 oil and gas output rising 5% yoy [25].
中金:休整、蓄力,再攀高
中金点睛· 2025-10-21 23:46
点击小程序查看原文 摘要 往前看,市场关注点或聚焦10月中下旬的四中全会和"十五五"规划。 10月中下旬的四中全会将审议"十五五"规划建议。2005年以来,五年规划整体聚焦 两大主线:消费和科技,两大主线长期跑赢大盘。而在短期内,规划重点支持相关行业整体大概率跑出超额收益。"十五五"规划( 《"十五五"的潜在政策 动态》 )可能仍然延续内需和科技两大主线,但具体政策和相关重点行业仍需跟踪观察。 Text 正文 核心交易主线 海外方面,9月以来海外市场一波三折。 FOMC于9月如期开启降息提振了风险偏好。但10月起官方数据停更,在缺乏基本面数据的引导后,流动性开始 主导市场,更易受事件驱动,波动加剧。 图表1:WEI显示美国3季度环比年化增速在3.4%-4.2%之间 Abstract 美国方面,在官方关键经济数据停更后,市场对美国经济状态缺乏共识。 从高频数据来看,6月以来 WEI指标趋势触底回升,隐含三季度GDP环比年化增 速在3%以上,美国小企业复苏迹象仍明显,设备投资热潮持续,经济增长韧性仍强。另一方面,基础设施投资和AI应用的普及或正在结构性减少企业雇 佣需求,叠加特朗普政府驱赶非法移民,非农就业中枢或 ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-10-21 18:01
If you want to replace investment banking analysts, you have to be detail-oriented. (via @opinion) https://t.co/VxM38xGLu2 ...
I demoed a buzzy AI startup and got a glimpse of what investment bankers' jobs might start to look like
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-21 17:52
Core Insights - Hebbia is a startup that offers AI-enabled tools aimed at enhancing the efficiency of financial services firms, particularly in investment banking [5][6][24] - The company raised $130 million in a Series B funding round in 2024, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in its technology [2] - Hebbia's tools are designed to streamline tedious tasks, allowing analysts to focus on more strategic aspects of their work [8][24] Company Overview - Founded in 2020, Hebbia has quickly gained traction, acquiring notable clients such as KKR, T. Rowe Price, and Permira [5] - The company emphasizes that many institutions may prefer to purchase access to its tools rather than develop similar capabilities in-house, which can be costly [3][2] Product Features - Hebbia's platform includes a "Matrix" interface that allows users to query large datasets and generate insights efficiently [9][10] - The system can analyze multiple companies' activities simultaneously, providing a comprehensive view of relevant information [11][19] - Features like automated memo and presentation creation significantly reduce the time spent on document preparation [13][14][24] Market Position - Approximately 60% of Hebbia's users are from the buy side, with the remainder comprising banks, law firms, and insurers [22] - The startup's tools are seen as a competitive advantage, with clients considering their custom prompts as proprietary intellectual property [20][21] Future Outlook - The emergence of "agentic AI" tools, which can execute complex tasks autonomously, represents the next phase of AI development in finance [23] - The increasing integration of AI in investment banking raises questions about the readiness of educational institutions and analyst programs to adapt to these changes [26][27]
OpenAI Looks to Replace Banking Grunt Work
Bloomberg Technology· 2025-10-21 16:52
What is Project Mercury. What is it that open air is working on here. Oh, good question.Ed, according to our reporting, the reporters in Dubai spoke to sources at Open Air, got their hands on some document. And the so-called project Mercury is effectively open air hiring investment bankers as contractors, people who can help with the modeling tasks, who can help the air with training it on how to write prompts, how to execute models, and how to make sure that they could get into a position where they can do ...
Evercore: Q3 Should Be Good Given Sponsor And Megadeal Return (NYSE:EVR)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-21 14:53
Group 1 - The Value Lab focuses on long-only value investment ideas, targeting a portfolio yield of approximately 4% and has performed well over the last five years by engaging in international markets [1][2] - Evercore (NYSE: EVR) is an advisory firm with significant exposure to large-ticket deals and sponsors, indicating a strong position in the investment landscape [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society consists of analysts sharing high-conviction, obscure developed market ideas that are expected to yield non-correlated and outsized returns in the current economic environment [3]
Evercore: Q3 Should Be Good Given Sponsor And Megadeal Return
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-21 14:53
Group 1 - The Value Lab focuses on long-only value investment ideas, targeting a portfolio yield of approximately 4% and has performed well over the last five years by engaging in international markets [1][2] - Evercore (NYSE: EVR) is an advisory firm with significant exposure to large-ticket deals and sponsors, indicating a strong position in the advisory market [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society consists of analysts sharing high-conviction investment ideas that are expected to yield non-correlated and outsized returns in the current economic environment [3]
Goldman downgraded, Coinbase initiated: Wall Street's top analyst calls
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-21 13:32
Upgrades - BofA upgraded Eversource (ES) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $85, up from $73, citing an "improving regulatory tone" and a projected 6% EPS growth through 2029 [2] - Leerink upgraded Exelixis (EXEL) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $48, up from $38, following the Phase 3 STELLAR-303 trial results, which established important levers for long-term investment despite a 12% stock decline [3] - Citi upgraded Nextracker (NXT) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $114, up from $66, highlighting its dominant position in tracker sales and potential revenue contributions from acquired businesses by FY30 [4] - Citi upgraded Sunrun (RUN) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $26, up from $11, noting benefits from rising electricity rates and increased leverage over suppliers due to market shifts [5] - Raymond James upgraded Capri Holdings (CPRI) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $25, indicating a favorable turnaround position supported by improving demand and conservative guidance [6] Downgrades - JPMorgan downgraded Goldman Sachs (GS) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $750, up from $625, citing high current valuations compared to European investment banks [7] - BNP Paribas Exane downgraded Verizon (VZ) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $44, raising concerns about strategic direction following a recent CEO change [7] - BNP Paribas Exane downgraded NuScale Power (SMR) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $25, down from $41, due to concerns over cumulative shipments and financial commitments [7] - Citi downgraded NuScale to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $37.50, down from $46, highlighting potential sales by Fluor and stretched valuations [7] - TD Cowen downgraded Tempus AI (TEM) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $88, up from $72, viewing the stock as fairly valued after a significant rally [7] - Wells Fargo downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) to Underweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $11, describing the recent stock rally as "excess exuberance" [7]
Ocumetics To Participate in the 2025 Maxim Growth Summit
Thenewswire· 2025-10-21 12:15
Core Insights - Ocumetics Technology Corp. is participating in the 2025 Maxim Growth Summit, highlighting its role as a leader in advanced ophthalmic technology [1][2] - The company is currently in the early feasibility study phase for a revolutionary intraocular lens designed to provide clear vision at all distances without corrective lenses [5] Company Overview - Ocumetics Technology Corp. is a Canadian research and product development company focused on advanced vision correction solutions aimed at enhancing patients' quality of life [4] - The company is dedicated to transforming ophthalmology through innovative research and development of state-of-the-art intraocular lenses and other vision-enhancing technologies [4] Event Participation - Dean Burns, President and CEO of Ocumetics, will participate in a panel titled 'A vision of Innovation' at the Maxim Growth Summit [2] - The summit will feature keynote speakers and roundtable discussions covering various topics, including biotechnology and ophthalmology [3] Technology Development - Ocumetics is developing an intraocular lens that fits within the natural lens compartment of the eye, potentially eliminating the need for glasses or contact lenses [5] - The lens is designed to utilize the eye's natural muscle activity to shift focus, providing clear vision at all distances [5]
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: We're still in early innings of private capital formation
CNBC Television· 2025-10-21 11:53
Alternative Assets and Market Trends - Goldman Sachs 的 CEO David Solomon 讨论了另类资产的演变 [1] - 讨论了 AI 繁荣的影响 [1] - 讨论了并购前景 [1] Financial Performance and Concerns - 讨论了公司业绩 [1] - 讨论了区域性银行和信贷问题 [1]