Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "National Network Identity Authentication Public Service Management Measures" is expected to significantly benefit the company, as it is a leader in the "Net Certificate" industry [1][2]. - The company has a strong position in the market due to its pioneering secure encryption chips and the introduction of the "Digital Citizen" concept, which has already seen a pilot project in Fuzhou [3]. - The potential for widespread application of electronic IDs across various sectors, such as hotels and internet cafes, presents substantial opportunities for the company, as it is positioned to supply the necessary encryption technology [3]. Financial Projections - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 1.281 billion, 1.499 billion, and 1.763 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 20, and 17 [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 7.745 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.835 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.2% [5][11]. - The report anticipates a net profit growth rate of 26.9% in 2025, followed by 17.1% in 2026 and 17.6% in 2027 [5][11].

中期展望：掘金阿尔法，聚焦 AI 与国产化 。 1 ）从业绩来看 ： 计算机行业有望结束 2020 年以来的持续下行， 进入到反转通道，下半年将伴随着需求端和费用端剪刀差的进一步显现，业绩增长具有加速潜力。 2 ）从持仓水 平来看： 目前仍处于低配状态且显著低于历史中枢，但已连续两个季度提升，未来进一步提升的空间较大。 3 ） 从月历效应来看： 计算机 5 、 6 月份较 4 月份更友好，而 2 月份超额收益最为显著。 4 ）从投资方向来看： 本 轮板块已上行的最大幅度为 98% 、时间跨度为 8 个月，参考历史上的四轮上行趋势，预计本轮上行仍有进一步 延展空间，但挖掘板块中的阿尔法投资机会将逐渐变得更为重要，建议重点关注人工智能与国产化的投资新机 会。 人工智能：星辰大海，扬帆算法平权新时代 。 1 ）在模型端： 国内外大模型厂商竞赛加剧， DeepSeek 指明了性 能提升的第二路径，带动了国产厂商加速崛起，未来多模态能力持续提升可期，建议关注 科大讯飞。 2 ）在算力 端： 持续高景气，英伟达引领芯片性能不断迭代升级，全球科技巨头加大资本开支，推理算力需求激增，建议关 注 海光信息、紫光股份、中科曙光、 ...

Group 1 - Demand is the fundamental driving force behind technological innovation, as historical examples illustrate that necessity leads to significant advancements [1][2] - The urgency and scale of demand determine the speed and level of innovation, with historical events like the Age of Discovery and the development of the internet driven by specific needs [2][3] - Technological innovation must find an economic purpose to be perfected and promoted, and it thrives when aligned with broad, practical demands [2][3] Group 2 - Innovation involves trial and error, which inherently requires costs; higher trial costs can slow technological progress [3][5] - The digital transformation of manufacturing is crucial, but it faces high trial costs due to the need for mature technologies before large-scale implementation [5][6] - Sectors with lower trial costs, such as entertainment and digital services, can innovate more rapidly and serve as testing grounds for new technologies [5][6] Group 3 - Technological innovation is a gradual process rather than a sudden breakthrough, often built on previous advancements and requiring long-term iteration [6][7] - Major inventions, like the steam engine and computers, evolved over time through continuous improvements rather than appearing suddenly [6][7] - The perception of innovation as revolutionary often overlooks the incremental efforts that lead to significant breakthroughs [7][8] Group 4 - Innovation often flourishes in resource-scarce environments, where necessity drives creativity and problem-solving [9][10] - Resource-rich countries may experience a "resource curse," leading to less innovation due to an over-reliance on existing resources [9][10] - Smaller, agile teams or startups can navigate innovation more effectively than larger organizations burdened by inertia and resource constraints [9][10] Group 5 - The diversity of ideas and backgrounds is crucial for innovation, as it fosters an environment where new concepts can emerge [11][12] - Historical examples show that regions with diverse populations often experience significant technological and economic advancements [11][12] - The global tech industry benefits from the contributions of immigrants, highlighting the importance of diverse talent in driving innovation [11][12] Group 6 - While youth is often associated with innovation, the average age of significant innovators has been rising, with many breakthroughs occurring in the 30-50 age range [12][13] - The trend indicates that experience and accumulated knowledge play a vital role in fostering innovation [12][13] - Despite the shift in age demographics, the urgency to innovate remains, emphasizing the need for timely action [13][15] Group 7 - Innovation is often unpredictable and can occur simultaneously across different individuals and regions, driven by similar social conditions [15][16] - Historical predictions about technological advancements have frequently proven overly optimistic or incorrect, illustrating the challenges of forecasting innovation [15][16] - The process of innovation is collaborative and iterative, with contributions from various individuals leading to breakthroughs [19][20]

Group 1 - The computer industry is experiencing a fundamental upward turning point in Q1 2025, driven by new technologies like DeepSeek's large model and increasing AI orders in specific sectors [1] - In Q1 2025, the Shenwan computer industry reported a 15.9% year-on-year increase in operating revenue and a staggering 671.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased by 0.6 percentage points, attributed to project-based delivery and the impact of traditional orders from the previous year [1] Group 2 - The domestic AI large model sector is thriving, characterized by a "hundred schools of thought" phenomenon, with DeepSeek emerging as a leading player through algorithmic innovation [2] - Tencent's Mix Yuan Turbo S has effectively reduced training and inference costs through innovative architecture, while MiniMax has expanded linear attention mechanisms to commercial model levels [2] - Alibaba's open-source model Qwen3 has achieved performance breakthroughs with relatively low hardware resource consumption through a "mixed reasoning" approach [2] Group 3 - The AI computing power and application sectors are showing strong growth, particularly in smart driving and industrial intelligence, with domestic AI chips and server power experiencing upward trends [3] - The integration of AI productivity tools with large models is accelerating, reshaping office workflows and enhancing enterprise resilience through AI Agents [3] - The domestic low-altitude economy is experiencing accelerated development driven by policy support, significantly improving industry sentiment [3]

Core Insights - The total trading volume of non-monetary ETFs reached 193.249 billion yuan, with 48 ETFs exceeding 1 billion yuan in trading volume [1] - The top three ETFs by trading volume were Short-term Bond ETF, 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF, and Policy Financial Bond ETF, with volumes of 9.596 billion, 9.496 billion, and 9.486 billion yuan respectively [1] - The Credit Bond ETF and German ETF had the highest turnover rates at 158.64% and 139.63% respectively, indicating high trading activity [1][7] Trading Volume and Performance - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360.SH) had a trading volume of 9.596 billion yuan and a latest share size of 3.32 million, closely tracking the China Bond Short-term Index [2][1] - The 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511090.SH) recorded a trading volume of 9.496 billion yuan, with a latest share size of 1.30 million, tracking the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index [2][1] - The German ETF (513030.SH) had a trading volume of 9.486 billion yuan and a latest share size of 7.30 million, tracking the DAX Index [2][1] Turnover Rates - The Credit Bond ETF Fund had a turnover rate of 158.64%, indicating significant trading activity [7] - The German ETF and 0-4 Local Bond ETF followed with turnover rates of 139.63% and 125.91% respectively, showcasing their popularity among investors [7] Sector and Industry Focus - The industry-themed ETFs included the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF and Hang Seng Technology ETF, reflecting a focus on technology sectors [1] - The Big Data Industry ETF, Smart Electric Vehicle ETF, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF were highlighted for their market performance, with respective amplitudes of 11.94%, 10.08%, and 9.74% [8][11] - The Smart Electric Vehicle ETF (516380.SH) and Big Data Industry ETF (516700.SH) had recent share sizes of 1.26 million and 1.25 million, respectively, indicating their growing market presence [9][8]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, the GDP of Huicheng District reached 27.731 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [1] - The primary industry added value was 0.835 billion, growing by 6.8%; the secondary industry added value was 6.022 billion, increasing by 9.5%; and the tertiary industry added value was 20.874 billion, with a growth of 4.8% [1] Agricultural and Industrial Performance - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in the district was 1.331 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [2] - The forestry sector saw a remarkable growth of 431.5% [2] - The industrial output value above designated size reached 20.1 billion, growing by 13.7% [2] - The mining industry increased by 49.8%, manufacturing by 14.8%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry by 2.0% [2] Retail and Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the district amounted to 20.829 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [3] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 35.5% [3] - Online retail through public networks grew by 27.9% [3] Trade and Taxation - The total import and export value reached 8.77 billion, with a growth of 51.4% [4] - Tax revenue for the first quarter was 6.748 billion, increasing by 10.4% [5] - Domestic tax revenue grew by 3.0%, with a total of 4.470 billion [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3316.11, up 1.13% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.84%, closing at 10082.34, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.97%, closing at 1986.41 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.34 trillion, an increase of 166.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Computer (up 3.65%), Communication (up 3.59%), and Comprehensive (up 3.38%) [1] - Conversely, the Banking sector saw a slight decline of 0.13%, and the Food & Beverage sector increased by only 0.35% [1] - Notable concept stocks such as Controlled Nuclear Fusion and Rare Earth Permanent Magnet saw significant gains, with increases of 6.32% and 5.45% respectively [2][3] Consumer Trends - There was a notable increase in long-distance travel demand during the May Day holiday, with over 1.1 billion cross-regional movements recorded, averaging 282 million daily, significantly higher than the same period in 2019 and 2024 [3] - Domestic tourism outperformed outbound travel, with a clear trend of consumption upgrades in lower-tier cities [3] Economic Indicators - The Caixin China General Services PMI for April was reported at 50.7, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from March, but still indicating expansion [3] - The overall earnings reports from A-share companies showed an improvement in profitability, with structural differentiation in revenue growth rates across industries [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with sustained high growth potential, including Finance, Public Utilities, Consumer, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4] - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillation and recovery in the short term, with further potential for risk appetite to improve [4]

Summary of the Computer Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the computer industry, specifically the performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, highlighting revenue trends and profitability metrics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **2024 Performance**: The total revenue for the computer industry in 2024 was 1.27 trillion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.78%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47% to 188 million RMB, and non-recurring profit fell by 52% to 82.5 million RMB. The total number of employees also declined by 0.6% to 1.201 million [2][6]. - **Q1 2025 Recovery**: In Q1 2025, the industry showed signs of recovery with revenue reaching 286 billion RMB, a 15% increase year-on-year. Non-recurring profit was approximately 28 million RMB, nearly 1.9 times higher than the previous year. However, the growth in profit is influenced by a low base effect, making revenue growth a more reliable indicator [3][6]. - **Quarterly Revenue Trends**: Revenue growth has shown significant volatility over the years, peaking at 17.3% in Q1 2022 before declining. It rebounded to 9.17% in Q2 2024 and surpassed 15% in Q1 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in industry sentiment [7]. - **Profitability Decline**: From 2019 to 2024, the average gross margin decreased from approximately 43% to 38%, with the median gross margin dropping from 42% to 35%. The median net margin fell from 10% to 1.74%, reflecting a decline in profitability due to cyclical effects and increased AI R&D expenditures [10]. - **Contract Liabilities and Cash Flow**: In 2024, contract liabilities and advance payments totaled 1.1298 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 7%. Operating cash flow improved to 77 billion RMB, up from 72 billion RMB the previous year, with accounts receivable remaining stable at around 30% of revenue [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Segmentation**: Large-cap companies showed resilience with an 8% revenue growth in 2024, while small-cap companies experienced a 9% decline. In Q1 2025, large-cap companies achieved a revenue growth rate of 22%, while small-cap companies declined by 7% [4][14]. - **Sector Performance**: The "Xinchuang" sector demonstrated significant revenue and net profit growth in 2024. In Q1 2025, sectors such as AI, autonomous driving, data elements, and energy performed well, driven by major companies like iFlytek and Hongquan [15]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The current favorable fiscal and monetary policies, along with increased cloud spending, are expected to enhance industry sentiment. The anticipated incremental effects of AI are expected to manifest in Q2 and Q3. Investors are advised to focus on the recovery of traditional businesses and the changing market demand for AI-related products [8][9][16]. - **Goodwill Trends**: Goodwill has been declining since 2019 due to poor economic conditions and challenges in meeting performance commitments. The expected goodwill for 2025 is projected to decrease to 73 billion RMB from 77 billion RMB [13]. - **R&D and Expense Ratios**: In 2024, the median R&D expense ratio was 11.84%, while management and sales expense ratios remained stable at around 8-10% [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the computer industry's performance and outlook.

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 重点布局 AI 应用及国产化。 从细分领域来看，在当前的位置，综合考虑产业本身的迭代催化、后续的政策发力 方向、订单的落地节奏等因素，建议重点布局 AI 及国产化，以及 eCall 及金融科技。其中，上述领域中，从受 业绩影响的维度来看，对 5 月的风险偏好改善相对更敏感的是 AI 应用及国产化；同时考虑到产业的催化密度， 预计 AI 应用将最为核心。 国内 AI 产业持续加速发展。 自 4 月底以来，国内 AI 产业正迎来密集催化。 4 月 25 日，中共中央政治局就加 强人工智能发展和监管进行集体学习； 4 月 28 日，阿里巴巴发布了最新 Qwen3 模型； 4 月 30 日，小米开源 推理大模型 Xiaomi MiMo ，同日 DeepSeek 开源了最新的数学定理证明专用模型 DS-Prover-V2-671B 。后 续，包括 DS-R2 等在内的大模型进展值得期待。 风险提示：板块业绩不达预期；下游需求存在景气度不稳定的风险；科技创新可能带来短期业绩下降。 注：文中报告节选自兴业证券经济与金融研究院已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详 ...

本周观点聚焦 周观点 把握超跌加仓机会，加力布局信创产业链 把握超跌加仓机会，布局绩优成长龙头。 受关税事件等影响，市场风险偏好下行，板块调整充分。从基本面来 看，计算机板块大部分公司和国内 G 端、 B 端支出关系更强，在国内政策发力，内需有望提振的背景下，受关 税影响较小，且将更受益于国产化产业趋势。伴随后续风险偏好企稳，板块估值修复可期。建议当下以长打短， 积极加仓，重点布局被错杀的超跌质优龙头。 点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/陈鑫/杨本鸿/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 证券研究报告： 《 信创：国际环境变局下的成长之矛 》 对外发布时间： 2025 年 4 月 12 日 报告发布机构： 兴业证券股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格） 本报告分析师 ： 蒋佳霖 SAC执业证书编号： S0190515050002 孙 乾 SAC执业证书编号：S0190518110001 陈 鑫 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522030001 杨本鸿 SAC执业证书编号：S0190522080001 张旭光 SAC执业证书编号：S0190523090002 杨海盟 SAC执业证 ...