[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 2 月经济：价格篇 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2 月生意社 BPI 指数先抑后扬，月初受风险偏好回摆影响，有色金属价格延续下行；假期美伊地缘事件发酵， 叠加关税裁决引发美元走弱预期，以原油为主的外盘商品重回升势。截至 2 月 27 日，生意社 BPI 指数录得 947 点，相较 1 月 ...

业内分析认为，本次集中采购中联想北京的领先表现，反映了其在政府及公共部门高端台式机市场的技 术实力、供应保障及品牌信赖度，进一步巩固了联想在政企市场的领先地位。伴随国产CPU和操作系统 替代趋势加速，联想的产品兼容性、性能和成本优势将使其在未来政府采购及企事业单位信息化升级中 持续受益。 本次集中采购以新版《台式、便携式计算机批量集中采购配置标准(2025年版)》为依据，严格实施限价 机制与安全可靠测评标准，国产CPU与操作系统渗透率大幅提升。联想北京凭借Intel技术路线及成熟的 供应链和政企渠道能力，在信创替代全面落地的背景下脱颖而出，充分显示了品牌实力和政府市场信任 度。 便携式计算机方面，联想开天笔记本以14台中标数量位列第二，紧随宏基61台，继续在政企轻薄本市场 保持稳定布局。打印机采购中，联想虽未进入前三，但公司在政企渠道的整体产品组合仍具长期优势。 近日，中央国家机关2026年2月台式机、便携式计算机及打印机批量集中采购项目中标结果公示显示， 联想北京在台式计算机采购中表现突出，以1434台中标数量拿下73.8%的份额，稳居首位，显著高于第 二名软通计算机的216台和第三名华为终端的114台。 ...

第一财季净营收为144.4亿美元，同比增长6.9%，高于分析师预期的139亿美元；调整后每股收益 （EPS）为0.81美元，同比增长9.5%，超出市场预期的0.77美元。 业务进展情况 来源：经济观察网 经济观察网 惠普于2026年2月25日公布的2026财年第一财季业绩显示，多项核心指标超出市场预期。 业绩经营情况 存储芯片成本占PC物料成本比例从上一季度的15%-18%升至35%，且预计全年成本压力持续。惠普已 通过提价、拓展供应商网络及优化产品设计应对，并启动一项多年期成本削减计划，目标到2028财年实 现每年节约10亿美元。 公司业绩目标 公司维持2026财年调整后EPS指引区间2.90-3.20美元（分析师预期3美元），但指出因成本压力，全年 业绩可能接近区间下限。第二财季调整后EPS预期为0.70-0.76美元，中值略低于市场预期的0.75美元。 经营状况 打印业务营收为42亿美元，同比下降2%，营业利润率面临挑战，部分抵消了PC业务的增长。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 个人系统业务（包括笔记本电脑、台式机等）营收达102.5亿美元，同比增长11%，显著高于分析师预 期的97.6亿 ...

经济观察网 联想控股（03396.HK）股价在2026年2月23日出现显著上涨，主要原因与市场对其关联公司 联想集团近期动态的积极反应有关。 股价异动原因 根据中关村在线的报道，作为全球最大的个人电脑制造商，联想集团于2026年2月宣布，受人工智能驱 动数据中心建设导致DRAM供应短缺、成本持续走高的影响，计划自3月起上调部分台式机与笔记本电 脑产品的价格。这一举措被市场解读为联想集团能够将上游原材料成本压力有效传导至下游消费者，有 助于维持其盈利能力。受此消息影响，市场对联想集团及其控股公司联想控股的未来业绩预期有所改 善。 股票近期走势 截至2026年2月23日11:02，联想控股股价报8.95港元，较前一日收盘价8.38港元上涨6.80%。当日电脑器 材行业板块整体上涨2.69%，恒生指数上涨2.66%。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

文/杨元庆 联想集团董事长兼 CEO 春山可望，万象更新。2026年的初春，农历丙午新年的脚步日益临近，神州大地洋溢着迎新的喜 庆。置身于"十五五"开局之年，我们心潮澎湃，信心满怀。 回望刚刚收官的"十四五"，中国经济彰显出难能可贵的高质量发展确定性，持续成为世界经 济增长的主要贡献者和稳定锚，不仅顶压前行，保持了年均5 . 4%的增长速度，继续领跑全球 主要经济体，更是稳中有进，经济总量实现"四连跳"，突破1 4 0万亿元大关，展现出"向新向 优发展"的活力。 当前，面对2 0 3 5年基本实现社会主义现代化的发展目标，要确保"十五五"和"十六五"时期经 济保持4 . 1 7%以上的年均合理增速，我们必须在高质量发展的轨道上充分挖掘经济潜能。 在这一宏大背景下，一个极具战略深意的概念——"中国人经济"正成为官方与学界热议的焦 点 。 与 重 视 国 内 生 产 总 值 （ GDP ） 的 " 中 国 经 济 " 相 比 ， " 中 国 人 经 济 " 关 注 的 是 国 民 总 收 入 （GNI），即中国人及企业在全球所创造的财富。进入"十五五"时期，中国式现代化道路要求 我国既重视"中国经济"也重视"中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "Chinese People Economy" is gaining attention as a strategic focus, emphasizing the importance of Gross National Income (GNI) over Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the context of China's modernization goals for 2035 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - China's economy has demonstrated remarkable high-quality growth, maintaining an average growth rate of 5.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the total economic output surpassing 140 trillion yuan [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to ensure an average annual growth rate of over 4.17% while fully tapping into economic potential [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance of "Chinese People Economy" - The "Chinese People Economy" encourages enterprises to leverage domestic innovation and manufacturing capabilities to expand globally, enhancing control over global resources and markets [2][3] - This approach creates a virtuous cycle where the development of the "Chinese People Economy" can feed back into the domestic economy, promoting mutual growth [2] Group 3: Characteristics of Global Competitiveness - To foster the "Chinese People Economy," it is essential to cultivate globally competitive Chinese enterprises that possess resource allocation, technological innovation, and brand influence capabilities [3] - Companies should retain core capabilities in China, leveraging its unmatched industrial advantages and comprehensive supply chain systems [3][4] Group 4: Lenovo's Globalization Practices - Lenovo's journey exemplifies the integration of "Chinese Economy" and "Chinese People Economy," having grown into a global technology giant with over 500 billion yuan in annual revenue and operations in 180 markets [6][7] - Lenovo maintains approximately 80% of its manufacturing, 70% of its R&D personnel, and 60% of its workforce in China, emphasizing the importance of China as a base for global operations [7] Group 5: Future Strategies for "Chinese People Economy" - Lenovo plans to enhance its "China + N" strategy, optimizing supply chain layouts and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in their global expansion [9] - The company aims to expand into emerging markets, particularly in the "Global South," with significant investments in regions like the Middle East [10] - Innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence, is identified as a core driver for the "Chinese People Economy," with Lenovo committed to making AI accessible globally [11]

Core Viewpoint - The shortage of storage chips has become the biggest challenge for AI development, with supply-demand imbalance expected to ease only by 2028, according to Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global storage chip market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by the AI boom, with prices for memory and hard drives rising significantly since mid-2025, with reports of price increases of three to four times compared to last year [1]. - Many PC manufacturers have adjusted their prices due to the rising costs of memory, with increases ranging from 300 to 500 yuan for most models, and some high-end models seeing price hikes exceeding 1,000 yuan [2]. - Sales personnel from various brands, including HP and Lenovo, have indicated that price adjustments are expected to continue, with Lenovo anticipating a 5% to 10% increase across its product line [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The rising costs have led to a significant impact on the DIY PC assembly market, with assembly costs increasing by at least 1,200 yuan, making it difficult for shops to attract customers [5]. - Consumers are becoming more cautious, with many opting to wait rather than purchase new components, as the price of memory chips has skyrocketed, with some products increasing by 1,000 yuan or more [7]. - The demand for high-performance components has surged, with reports of memory prices rising to three to four times their previous levels, making them a lucrative investment opportunity for some [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite recent price fluctuations, the overall trend in the storage industry remains upward, driven by increased demand from AI applications and cloud service providers, with DRAM market value projected to reach $165.7 billion in 2025, a 73% year-on-year increase [8]. - Recent reports indicate a slight weakening in DRAM spot prices, but this is not yet seen as a sign of an industry reversal, and price increases are expected to continue as the demand remains strong [8].

Core Viewpoint - The shortage of storage chips has become the biggest challenge for AI development, with supply-demand imbalance expected to ease only by 2028, according to Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global storage chip market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by the AI boom, with prices for memory and hard drives rising significantly since mid-2025, showing no signs of stopping [1]. - Current discussions highlight that memory and hard drive prices have increased by three to four times compared to last year, with daily price fluctuations becoming common [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics industry is at a crossroads due to the significant rise in memory costs, leading many manufacturers to adjust prices upwards by 300 to 500 yuan for existing models, with some high-end models seeing increases exceeding 1,000 yuan [2]. - Predictions indicate that the post-Spring Festival period will mark a tipping point, with widespread price hikes expected for laptops, desktops, and smartphones [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Responses - HP has already adjusted prices for some models by 300 to 500 yuan due to increased procurement costs from rising memory and hard drive prices [4]. - Lenovo plans to raise prices across its product line by 5% to 10%, with some models expected to increase by 1,000 to 1,500 yuan [4]. - ASUS has not yet raised prices but anticipates adjustments following market trends, citing rising costs as a clear industry trend [5]. Group 4: Effects on Custom PC Market - The custom PC market is significantly affected by the storage product super cycle, with assembly shops reporting a decline in customer inquiries and sales [7]. - The cost of assembling a computer has risen by at least 1,200 yuan, with high-performance configurations potentially increasing by up to 10,000 yuan [9]. Group 5: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The current price surge in storage products is not merely a cyclical fluctuation but a structural change driven by AI demand, with DRAM market value projected to reach $165.7 billion in 2025, a 73% year-on-year increase [11]. - Despite recent signs of price weakening in the DRAM market, the overall trend remains upward, with price fluctuations reflecting in end-user costs [12].

Core Viewpoint - Huqin Technology expects significant growth in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and a robust product strategy [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates revenue between 170 billion to 171.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.7% to 56.1% [1]. - Net profit is projected to be between 4 billion to 4.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 36.7% to 38.4% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its "3+N+3" smart product platform strategy and global industrial layout to enhance service capabilities across various sectors, including mobile terminals, personal computers, data centers, and automotive electronics [4][7]. - A recent issuance of 800 million yuan in technology innovation bonds, with a subscription multiple of 2.71, aims to optimize the company's financing structure [4]. Group 3: Business Development - The company maintains a competitive edge in both emerging and traditional sectors, with a focus on long-term strategic investments [5]. - The PC business is expected to exceed 30% revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue projected to surpass 30 billion yuan [5]. - The data center business is performing exceptionally well, with revenue expected to double, reaching over 40 billion yuan for the year [7]. Group 4: Market Position and Challenges - The company has established itself as a leading ODM manufacturer in the smartphone sector, with a projected shipment increase of over 20% in the laptop business [6]. - A unique procurement model helps the company mitigate risks associated with rising storage chip prices, ensuring stable gross margins [6].

Group 1 - The global PC market is projected to see a total shipment of 75 million units in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, leading to an annual total of 279.5 million units, a 9.2% increase from 2024 [1] - Notebook shipments (including mobile workstations) are expected to reach 58.6 million units in Q4 2025, with an annual total of 220.4 million units, achieving an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - Desktop shipments (including desktop workstations) are forecasted to be 16.2 million units in Q4 2025, with an annual total of 59 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [1] Group 2 - From mid-2025, there will be a tightening of memory and storage supply, accompanied by upward price pressure, which will lead to price increase expectations from PC manufacturers by December 2025 [1] - The cost of mainstream PC memory and storage is expected to rise by 40% to 70% from Q1 to Q4 2025, resulting in cost pressures being passed on to customers [1] - The demand for device replacements in 2026 will not have fully dissipated, and supply-side pressures will be more pronounced, with actual shipment performance depending on manufacturers' procurement capabilities and bargaining power in memory and storage [1] Group 3 - IDC reports that at a critical juncture where the industry needs to increase memory configurations, both supply tightness and high costs will lead to rising prices for AI PCs, declining manufacturer profit margins, and potential reductions in new model memory configurations during key market promotion periods [2]