Core Insights - The recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields across the curve indicates expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut key interest rates in upcoming meetings on October 29 and December 10 [1] - Expectations for continued interest rate cuts into 2026 are based on the prediction of a global decline in interest rates [2]

Market Overview - Crypto markets are currently in a holding pattern, with Bitcoin trading around $108,164, reflecting a slight increase from Monday but a 2% decline for the week, while Ether is near $3,815 [1] - The upcoming U.S. CPI report is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with QCP Capital noting that a softer 0.2% print could support Bitcoin's upside potential [2][3] Economic Indicators - The CPI report is viewed as the "singular anchor" for policy expectations, with potential implications for risk sentiment and liquidity in the market [3] - A recent liquidation event of $20 billion and collateral mispricing at Binance have largely settled, creating a cleaner environment for macro traders ahead of the CPI release [5] Crypto Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is consolidating above $108,000, with analysts suggesting that a dip below $100,000 could present a buying opportunity before a potential upward movement [6] - Ethereum is trading around $3,800, with a 33% increase in volume as traders position themselves ahead of inflation data; however, a significant transfer by the Ethereum Foundation has led to profit-taking and long liquidations [7] Gold Market Trends - Gold futures have experienced a record-setting sell-off, down 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce following a 5.7% drop, as investors take profits; however, strong central bank buying and expectations of rate cuts may provide support for bullion [8]

Core Points - Ellington Financial Inc. will release its financial results for Q3 2025 on November 5, 2025, after market close [1] - A conference call to discuss these results is scheduled for November 6, 2025, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1] - An investor presentation will be posted on the company's website after the financial results release [3] Company Overview - Ellington Financial invests in a diverse array of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans, mortgage-backed securities, reverse mortgage loans, and consumer loans [4] - The company is externally managed and advised by Ellington Financial Management LLC, an affiliate of Ellington Management Group, L.L.C. [4]

Core Points - Fifth Third Bancorp will participate in the 2025 BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference on November 7, 2025, at approximately 9:00 AM ET, represented by Jamie Leonard and Bryan Preston [1] - The conference will feature an audio webcast and presentation slides available for viewing live and for approximately 14 days post-conference [2] - Fifth Third Bancorp has a long history of innovation since its establishment in 1858, focusing on improving lives through financial services [3] - The company has been recognized as one of Ethisphere's World's Most Ethical Companies® for several years, emphasizing its commitment to customers, employees, communities, and shareholders [3] - Fifth Third Bancorp is the parent company of Fifth Third Bank, which is federally chartered and trades on NASDAQ under the symbol "FITB" [4] - The company reported revenues of $7.90 billion and net income of $2.77 billion in 2021 [5] Additional Information - Fifth Third Private Bank received the Datos Insights 2025 Impact Award for Best Innovation in Client Experience, highlighting its commitment to leveraging technology in wealth management [7] - Fifth Third has been recognized in the 2026 Forbes Best Customer Service List for the third consecutive year, reflecting its dedication to customer-centric service [8]

Core Points - Amerant Bancorp Inc. has rescheduled its third quarter 2025 earnings release and investor conference call to October 28, 2025, before market opens to complete customary review processes [1][2] - The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.09 per share of common stock, payable on November 28, 2025, to shareholders of record by November 14, 2025 [3] Company Overview - Amerant Bancorp Inc. is a bank holding company headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida, operating since 1979, with its main subsidiary being Amerant Bank, N.A. [4] - The company provides deposit, credit, and wealth management services, operating 22 banking centers, primarily in South Florida [4]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is discussing a new "payment account" for payment firms, which would provide basic access to Fed payment services while limiting certain features of full master accounts [1][3] Group 1: Proposal Details - The proposed account would allow access to Fed payment rails but would have balance caps, pay no interest, not allow overdrafts, and not provide access to emergency lending [3] - This initiative is framed within the payments mandate, focusing on settlement efficiency and risk controls rather than credit creation or deposit taking [4] Group 2: Implications for Crypto and Fintech Firms - The new account could reduce delays and costs for crypto-facing firms that currently route dollar flows through sponsor banks, thereby standardizing access for eligible firms [5][6] - A more direct link to Fed payment services could streamline operations for stablecoin issuers, allowing for quicker redemptions and subscriptions [6] Group 3: Future Considerations - Banks with payment subsidiaries may be the first to adopt this new account, followed by fintech and crypto firms with strong compliance programs [8] - The effectiveness of the account for stablecoin issuers and tokenized fund operators will depend on balance caps, liquidity requirements, and transaction monitoring expectations [8]

It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks, three charts, and three trades. Rick Ducat, of course, taking us through the charts today.And here to take us through the trades is Don Kaufman, co-founder of Theo Trade. Great to have you both with us. Don, let's kick things off right with this first pick you've got for us today.Lenar in the homebuilder space, heavily under pressure. Although, as I was looking at their chart, they are trying to stage a bit of a rally here. >> Yeah, and that's exactly wha ...

Performance Overview - The Third Avenue Value Fund achieved a return of 11.85% for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, outperforming the MSCI World Index (7.36%) and the MSCI World Value Index (5.98%) [2] - Year-to-date, the Fund returned 26.04%, compared to 17.83% for the MSCI World Index and 17.54% for the MSCI World Value Index [2] - Annualized performance for the trailing three-year and five-year periods was 23.24% and 23.66%, respectively [2] Key Contributors to Performance - Capstone Copper was the largest contributor, benefiting from the expansion of its Mantoverde mine and rising copper prices due to tight global supplies and operational disruptions in major mining regions [3] - Lundin Mining also contributed positively, aided by rising copper and gold prices, with its Brazilian copper mine being a significant asset [3] - Warrior Met Coal's Blue Creek project began production ahead of schedule, expected to significantly increase production volumes and reduce costs [4] - Close Brothers benefited from a favorable U.K. Supreme Court ruling, improving the outlook for U.K. lenders involved in motor finance [5] Negative Contributors to Performance - Negative contributions were limited, with easyJet, Ayala Corp., S4 Capital, Interfor, and Boise Cascade noted as underperformers [7] - Boise Cascade and Interfor are exposed to the cyclical downturn in U.S. housing starts and repair activity, presenting potential opportunities for undervalued investments [7] Investment Themes - European companies were significant contributors to performance, with Deutsche Bank and Bank of Ireland showing improved health and operating performance [8][9] - The Fund reduced its position in Deutsche Bank despite its strong performance, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [9] New Investments - The Fund initiated positions in Boise Cascade, Rogers Corp., and Ayala Corp. during the quarter [32] - Boise Cascade is viewed as inexpensive with potential for recovery in housing-related demand, supported by a strong financial position [34] - Rogers Corporation has valuable intellectual property but has struggled to grow; recent management changes may enhance its competitive position [38] - Ayala Corp. is trading at multi-decade low valuations, with potential catalysts for value creation through asset monetizations and share repurchases [40][41]

Core Insights - Nigeria's central bank has established a task force to explore the adoption of stablecoins, raising concerns about the future of the eNaira digital currency [1][2] - The eNaira has seen sluggish adoption, with only 0.5% of Nigerians using it a year after its launch, and 98.5% of wallets remaining inactive [3][5] - The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is collaborating with the Ministry of Finance and other regulators to assess the implications of introducing an official Nigerian stablecoin [2][8] eNaira Performance - The total transaction volume for the eNaira since its launch is approximately ₦29.3 billion, with over 850,000 transactions recorded, which is significantly low for a country with over 200 million people [4] - By early 2024, the number of eNaira wallets reached 13 million, but most remain unused, indicating a lack of engagement [3][4] - The eNaira mobile app has been removed from Google Play, and the USSD code for access is no longer functional, further complicating user access [4] Public Sentiment and Challenges - Public sentiment towards the eNaira is largely negative, with users expressing frustration over its usability and lack of benefits compared to cash or private cryptocurrencies, leading to nicknames like "E-vanish" and "E-dead" [6][7] - The CBN has acknowledged the failure of the eNaira to gain widespread acceptance, attributing it to low awareness and inadequate user education [5][6] Future Directions - Efforts to revive the eNaira include a partnership with blockchain firm Gluwa to enhance technical infrastructure and plans to expand its use for government payments [6] - CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso emphasized the importance of balancing innovation with risk management in discussions about stablecoins during global financial meetings [8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold experienced its worst single-day drop in 12 years, ending a record-breaking rally, but the underlying supply-and-demand dynamics remain strong, even at overbought levels in the short term [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Spot gold was trading around $4,140 per ounce, down from a record $4,381.21 per ounce, reflecting a significant price fluctuation [2]. - Prices have increased by as much as 60% as investors, including central banks and private funds, sought protection from inflation, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks, while supply remains constrained [3]. Central Bank Influence - Central banks have been steadily increasing their gold holdings since 2008, creating a higher price floor for gold [3]. - The demand from the official sector is seen as a stabilizing force for gold prices, with central banks likely to continue diversifying their reserve holdings in gold due to fiscal uncertainties and geopolitical risks [5]. Macroeconomic Factors - Gold's characteristics as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value are particularly appealing in the context of high US government debt, which negatively impacts Treasuries [4]. - Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to sustain further demand for gold, prompting analysts to raise their 12-month gold price target from $3,900 to $4,600 per ounce [6]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the recent drop, investor interest in gold remains strong due to ongoing inflation fears and global turmoil, with central banks expected to continue increasing their gold purchases [7].