2025.07. 11 据参考消息援引外媒报道，7月12日上午，在日本北海道民间太空港"北海道航天港"，台湾晋升太 空股份有限公司的日本法人"jtSPACE"开发的火箭进行了发射，但不久后坠落。 报道称，运营该太空港的SPACE COTAN公司说明称火箭"中断了飞行"。 据称，火箭第一级按计划飞行后分离，第二级因中止飞行的功能起效而坠落。SPACE COTAN的社 长小田切义宪表示："从第二级开始发生了什么，有待调查。" 报道称，此次发射的"VP01"火箭全长12米、直径0.6米、重1.4吨，计划飞抵高度100公里以上的太 空以验证性能。 微信编辑 | 夏木 图为在空中旋转后下坠的火箭。7月12日上午摄于北海道大树町。（共同社） 推荐阅读 "黄金平替"，单日大跌6%！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "VP01" rocket developed by Taiwan's jtSPACE in Hokkaido, Japan, ended in failure as the rocket fell shortly after takeoff, prompting an investigation into the cause of the malfunction [1] Group 1: Launch Details - The "VP01" rocket is 12 meters long, 0.6 meters in diameter, and weighs 1.4 tons, with a mission to reach an altitude of over 100 kilometers to validate its performance [1] - The rocket's first stage successfully separated as planned, but the second stage experienced a failure that led to the interruption of the flight [1] Group 2: Company and Operational Insights - SPACE COTAN, the company operating the Hokkaido spaceport, stated that the rocket "interrupted its flight," indicating a need for further investigation into the events that occurred after the second stage [1] - The president of SPACE COTAN, Yoshinori Otagiri, mentioned that the specifics of what happened from the second stage onward are still under investigation [1]

Group 1 - China's successful launch of the experimental satellite Tiankong-28B01 demonstrates the country's solid development in space technology, with the Long March 4B rocket completing its 583rd flight [1] - The satellite is primarily used for space environment detection and related technology experiments, reinforcing China's capability in autonomous space technology [1] Group 2 - Siemens announced that the U.S. government has lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China, allowing full access for Chinese customers to Siemens' software and technology [2] - This change indicates a potential easing of trade tensions and could enhance collaboration in the technology sector between the U.S. and China [2] Group 3 - The National Medical Products Administration of China is implementing supportive policies for high-end medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology, aiming to optimize the innovation review process [3] - The initiative includes special reviews for innovative medical devices with significant clinical value, enhancing communication between applicants and review experts [3] - The regulatory framework aims to accelerate the market entry of high-end medical devices, ultimately improving accessibility to advanced medical technologies for patients [3]

Core Points - The Russian space agency announced the successful launch of the "Progress MS-31" cargo spacecraft from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan [1] - The launch occurred on March 3 at 22:32 Moscow time, with the spacecraft entering its designated orbit [1] - The "Progress MS-31" spacecraft is scheduled to dock with the International Space Station on March 6 and will remain in orbit for 167 days [1]

Core Viewpoint - Russia successfully launched a "Soyuz-2.1a" carrier rocket, marking a significant achievement in its space exploration efforts [1] Group 1: Launch Details - The launch took place on July 3, local time, from the Baikonur Cosmodrome located in Kazakhstan [1] - The "Soyuz-2.1a" rocket carried the "Progress MS-31" cargo spacecraft, which is intended to supply the International Space Station (ISS) [1] Group 2: Mission Timeline - The cargo spacecraft will take approximately 50 hours to complete its mission, during which it will orbit the Earth 34 times [1] - The docking with the ISS is scheduled for July 6 at 00:28 Moscow time [1] Group 3: Cargo Details - The "Progress MS-31" spacecraft is set to deliver over 2.6 tons of supplies to the International Space Station [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the experimental satellite "Test 28 B Star 01" by China marks a significant achievement in space exploration and technology testing, utilizing the Long March 4B rocket for the 583rd flight of the Long March series [1] Group 1 - The launch took place at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center on July 3, 2025, at 17:35 Beijing time [1] - The primary purpose of the satellite is for space environment detection and related technology experiments [1] - This mission highlights the ongoing advancements in China's space capabilities and its commitment to developing satellite technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of Japan's H2A rocket marks the end of its operational life, with implications for Japan's space ambitions, but the transition to the new H3 rocket is expected to mitigate the impact [1][3]. Group 1: H2A Rocket Launch and Retirement - Mitsubishi Heavy Industries successfully launched the H2A rocket for the 50th time, delivering the GOSAT-GW satellite into orbit [1][3]. - The H2A rocket has achieved a 98% success rate over its 50 missions since its first launch in 2001, with only one failure recorded [3]. - The H2A rocket will be officially retired, with the H3 rocket taking over its responsibilities for satellite launches [3]. Group 2: H3 Rocket and Future Prospects - The H3 rocket, which has a higher payload capacity and lower launch costs, is set to replace the H2A rocket, addressing Japan's need for competitive pricing in the international commercial launch market [4]. - The launch cost of the H3 rocket is approximately 5 billion yen (about 34.5 million USD), which is half the cost of the H2A rocket's launch price of around 10 billion yen (about 69 million USD) [4]. - The H3 rocket has successfully completed four consecutive launches after an initial failure in 2023, indicating improving reliability and performance for future missions [3].

Core Points - Baikonur Cosmodrome celebrates its 70th anniversary this year, having launched over 1,500 rockets and nearly 2,000 spacecraft into orbit over the past seven decades [1][3] - The launch site, located in southern Kazakhstan, covers approximately 7,000 square kilometers, which is equivalent to two and a half times the area of Moscow [3] - Baikonur has been the site of significant historical events, including the launch of the first artificial Earth satellite in 1957 and Yuri Gagarin's historic flight in 1961 [3] Infrastructure and Facilities - The Baikonur Cosmodrome includes 15 launch complexes, 4 intercontinental ballistic missile test launch pads, 11 assembly and testing buildings, two airports, 470 kilometers of railway, and 1,281 kilometers of highways [3] - Currently, Russia rents the launch site from Kazakhstan and continues to use it for regular launches of the Soyuz crewed spacecraft and Progress cargo spacecraft [3] Historical Significance - October 24 is marked as a "dark day" for the launch site due to tragic incidents, including a fire in 1960 that resulted in 78 fatalities [4] - Despite the gradual transfer of launch operations to the new Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East, the Russian space agency plans to continue using Baikonur until at least the expiration of the lease in 2050 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket from China's first commercial space launch site marks a significant milestone in the development of the country's commercial space industry [1][2]. Group 1: Launch Success - The Long March 12 rocket was successfully launched on November 30, 2024, from the Wenchang Space Launch Site in Hainan Province, achieving a successful first flight for China's first commercial space launch site [1]. - The launch was celebrated with applause and cheers in the control room, highlighting the emotional significance of the event for the team involved [1]. Group 2: Development and Challenges - The construction of the launch site was completed within a tight timeframe of just one and a half years, presenting significant challenges due to the complexity of the project and a shortage of talent and technology [2]. - The team, led by a key figure in the industry, worked diligently to overcome numerous technical challenges and collaborated with various rocket companies to understand their requirements for the launch site [2]. Group 3: Commitment to the Industry - The individual leading the project has dedicated over 20 years to the space launch industry, emphasizing a deep commitment to advancing China's commercial space endeavors [3]. - The sentiment expressed reflects a broader vision of humanity's pursuit of space exploration, underscoring the importance of this mission for the future of the industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on upstream suppliers that provide core technologies and high barriers to entry, rather than direct investment in launch vehicle companies that face significant market and capital expenditure risks [4][50]. Core Insights - The global aerospace launch market is undergoing a profound and irreversible structural expansion driven by a revolution in cost structures, shifting from a government budget-dominated paradigm to a commercially driven era focused on high launch frequency and cost efficiency [1][7]. - The key catalyst for this transformation is SpaceX's disruptive cost reductions achieved through reusable rocket technology, which has set new price benchmarks and operational expectations for the market [1][7]. - Future launch demand will be supported by three solid pillars: the large-scale deployment of commercial broadband constellations (e.g., Starlink and Kuiper), increasing geopolitical competition and national security needs, and the revival of scientific and deep space exploration missions represented by the Artemis program [1][10]. Industry Background and Market Drivers - The report highlights a significant increase in global orbital launches, with a record of 259 launches expected in 2024, up from 223 in 2023, and a forecast of over 300 launches in 2025 [7][10]. - The transition to a commercial-driven market is exemplified by SpaceX's 138 launches in 2024, which accounted for half of the global market, establishing a new operational rhythm [7][10]. Core Technology Path Analysis - The competition in the launch market is fundamentally a competition of underlying propulsion technologies, converging on the "Methalox + Reusability + Additive Manufacturing" combination [2][13]. - Methalox engines are recognized as the future mainstream path due to their clean combustion characteristics and ability to simplify the reuse process, addressing the carbon buildup issues of traditional kerosene fuels [15][19]. Value Chain and Supply Chain Analysis - The report identifies a shift in value and profit concentration towards upstream suppliers of core technologies and high-barrier components, moving away from midstream assembly integration [3][36]. - The "smile curve" analysis indicates that high-value areas are concentrated at the upstream and downstream ends of the value chain, while midstream assembly faces profit margin pressures [36][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Howmet Aerospace, LOAR, VSE Corporation, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Safran, L3Harris Technologies, and Velo3D, which are positioned as key technology enablers in the supply chain [4][50].