Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder's stock fell 18.4% following the release of its earnings report, which, despite showing some progress, did not meet investor expectations after a significant prior increase in stock value [1]. Financial Performance - In the latest quarter, Estée Lauder reported a revenue growth of 5.8%, reaching $4.23 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 43% to $0.89 [2]. - The revenue growth of 5.8% marked an acceleration from the previous quarter's growth of 3.5%, but still fell short of market expectations [3]. Market Dynamics - Estée Lauder has successfully regained market share while implementing cost-cutting measures, with a notable recovery in China contributing to a 13% growth in that market last quarter. All regions reported positive growth, with Europe and the Middle East up 9%, and the U.S. and Asia Pacific (excluding China) each up 1% [4]. Future Outlook - The company's forward guidance for the fiscal year ending June 2026 indicates a growth expectation of only 3% to 5%, which is a deceleration from previous forecasts. Adjusted EPS is projected to be between $2.05 and $2.25. The company has already achieved $1.21 in adjusted EPS in the first two quarters of fiscal 2026, leading to potential investor disappointment regarding full-year guidance [5]. - Management anticipates a $100 million negative impact from tariffs in the current fiscal year [5]. Valuation Concerns - Estée Lauder's stock valuation remains high at 44 times this year's adjusted EPS estimates, suggesting that investors may have overly optimistic expectations for continued growth and profit recovery [8]. - Despite some positive trends in recent quarters, management does not express confidence in significant acceleration of results in the near term, particularly given the premium nature of its products which rely on a strong global consumer base [9].

Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder's stock is experiencing a significant decline, heading towards its worst day ever, as the company's profit outlook raised is not sufficient to meet high investor expectations despite beating earnings estimates [1] Earnings Results - Estée Lauder reported fiscal second-quarter results, raising its full-year profit outlook, but this was not enough to satisfy investors [1] - The company is facing challenges such as tariffs and increased investments in its turnaround plans, which have contributed to the stock's decline [1] Management Commentary - CEO Stéphane de La Faverie expressed optimism regarding the company's turnaround efforts, which include cost-cutting measures, layoffs, and initiatives to enhance operational agility [1] - He described the current changes as "the biggest operational, leadership, and cultural transformation in our history" [1]

Shares of Estee Lauder ( EL ) have recovered solidly over the past year, gaining over 40%, though its earnings on Thursday reminded investors this is not a linear recovery by any means. While the company beat its Q2 earnings, the updated outlook provided alongsideOver fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on my macro view and stock-specific turnaround stories to garner outsized returns with a favorable risk/reward profile. If you want me to cover a specific stock or have a question for an ...

Core Insights - Hailey Bieber's skin care line, Rhode, is significantly boosting e.l.f. Beauty's sales, with net sales reaching $212 million in less than three years [1] - Despite a strong quarterly performance, e.l.f. Beauty's stock has declined approximately 8% over the past year, indicating skepticism from Wall Street [2] - JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira raised concerns about a slowdown in organic growth, projecting it to drop to 2% in the latter half of the year, primarily due to reliance on the Rhode acquisition [3] Group 1: Business Performance - CEO Tarang Amin believes the recent shipment and demand discrepancies are due to accounting issues rather than a decline in popularity [4] - The company's growth strategy is supported by two main factors: the high-end appeal of Rhode and its strong presence in low-income markets through Dollar General [5][6] - e.l.f. Beauty is attracting new customers, with 60% of Dollar General shoppers being first-time cosmetic buyers, indicating a successful penetration into the value segment [6] Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Base - Amin expresses confidence in maintaining the company's growth streak, which has lasted for 28 quarters, due to a loyal customer base among Gen Z and millennials [7] - The brand's ability to resonate across various income groups is seen as a key strength, especially in the current inflationary environment [7]

In this photo illustration the Estee Lauder Companies Inc. logo seen displayed on a smartphone with Estee Lauder Companies Inc. logo in the background.Estée Lauder said Thursday it's expecting a $100 million hit to its full-year profitability because of tariff impacts. The beauty company's stock tumbled more than 20% in midday trading.The company is currently in the midst of a turnaround plan, dubbed "Beauty Reimagined," that's expected to cost between $1.2 billion and $1.6 billion and is aimed at revitaliz ...

Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder Companies Inc experienced a nearly 22% drop in share price due to mixed signals on growth and profit pressures, despite a solid quarterly performance and an increased earnings forecast for the year [1]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $4.23 billion, slightly surpassing analysts' expectations of $4.22 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.89, exceeding forecasts of $0.83 [2]. - Organic sales grew by 4% year-on-year, an acceleration from a 3% increase in Q1, driven by a 13% surge in Mainland China [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) contributed to a 290 basis point increase in adjusted operating margin to 14.4%, helping to mitigate some tariff pressures [3]. - Management reported progress in cost-cutting, workforce reductions, and operational improvements, indicating that the most severe inventory and travel retail volatility is behind them [3]. Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, the company expects adjusted EPS between $2.05 and $2.25, slightly below the Street consensus of $2.19 [4]. - Projected organic net sales growth is anticipated to be between 1% and 3%, with modest growth expected in Mainland China and flat performance in the Americas [4]. - Tariff-related costs are projected to reduce operating profit by approximately $100 million [4]. Segment Performance - Skincare led sales with $2.05 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, followed by fragrance at $812 million (+9%), makeup at $1.16 billion (+1%), and hair care at $168 million (+6%) [5]. - Geographically, sales contributions were $1.22 billion from the Americas, $1.18 billion from Europe/Kem, $900 million from Asia/Pacific, and $928 million from Mainland China [5]. Market Reactions - Jefferies noted that while Q2 sales and EPS exceeded expectations, the full-year EPS guidance fell short of Street models, indicating investor caution [6]. - Investors are expected to focus on commentary regarding travel retail consumption in Asia, operating margin levers, cash flow allocation, and ongoing innovation initiatives across Estée Lauder's brands [6].

分组1 - The software stock market is experiencing a significant sell-off, particularly affecting companies like Qualcomm and ARM Holdings, which are facing challenges due to a global memory chip shortage [2][3][4] - Qualcomm's guidance indicates weakness in the smartphone market, with expectations of this dynamic persisting into 2027, suggesting management should have better prepared investors for these challenges [2][4] - ARM Holdings is also struggling with subdued royalty sales as mobile processor sales stall, indicating a need for improved investor communication [3][4] 分组2 - Alphabet's capital expenditure (capex) guidance for the year is projected at $185 billion, significantly higher than the market's expectation of $120 billion, reflecting a strong long-term business outlook [5][6] - Despite concerns over capex, Alphabet's fundamentals remain robust, with YouTube seeing a 75% increase in podcast viewership and the Gemini app achieving 750 million monthly active users [6][7] - Alphabet's strong performance in AI and cloud growth positions it favorably in the tech landscape, contrasting with the struggles of other software companies [10][12][13] 分组3 - E.L.F. Beauty reported a 38% increase in net sales and a 79% rise in adjusted EBITDA, driven by the acquisition of Haley Bieber's cosmetics brand, Road [36][37] - The brand Road has shown exceptional growth, achieving $212 million in net sales in under three years, indicating strong consumer demand and effective marketing strategies [39][40] - E.L.F. Beauty continues to gain market share, with its core business showing healthy growth despite shipment challenges, suggesting a positive long-term outlook [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet Inc. experienced a significant stock decline of 7% to $309.32, attributed to a sharp increase in projected capital expenditures despite strong fourth-quarter sales of $97.23 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $95.2 billion [1][5][10] Financial Performance - Alphabet's fourth-quarter revenue reached $97.23 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $95.2 billion, with strong performance in advertising and cloud revenue [7][10] - The company forecasted capital expenditures could surge to $185 billion in 2026, significantly higher than the anticipated $119.5 billion, raising concerns about immediate margin compression and long-term ROI [2][3][8] Market Reaction - The stock market reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8% and technology stocks leading the decline, marking the sixth loss in seven trading sessions [2][4][11] - Alphabet's Class A and Class C shares fell more than 4%, resulting in a loss of tens of billions in market value [5][10] Strategic Focus - CEO Sundar Pichai emphasized that the investments in AI are expected to drive growth in search and other core businesses, arguing that AI is expanding rather than cannibalizing existing services [3][9] - The majority of the projected capital expenditures will be allocated to data centers, custom AI chips, servers, and network infrastructure to support generative AI products across various platforms [8][10] Broader Market Context - The decline in Alphabet's stock contributed to a broader pullback in U.S. equities, with semiconductor and hardware stocks also facing pressure due to cautious outlooks despite beating earnings expectations [11][12] - Economic data indicated a potential cooling labor market, with higher-than-expected jobless claims and significant layoffs announced, contributing to market caution [14][16]

ARM - ARM's shares are lower, but not as much as pre-market indications suggested, with adjusted EPS at 43 cents, beating the expected 41 cents [2] - Revenue was in line with expectations at approximately $1.24 billion, matching consensus [2] - Despite solid earnings, concerns arise from missed expectations in licensing revenue, which is crucial for future growth, particularly due to smartphone exposure [3][4] Estee Lauder - Estee Lauder's shares are under significant pressure, down 15%, despite better-than-expected adjusted EPS of 89 cents compared to the expected 83 cents [5][6] - Revenue was $4.229 billion, slightly above the expected $4.219 billion, but non-adjusted profit fell below expectations due to a major restructuring program [6][7] - Tariff pressures are expected to reduce profits by about $100 million, leading to anticipated contraction in operating margins [8] Tapestry - Tapestry, the parent company of Coach and Kate Spade, reported strong results with shares rallying 9% [10] - Adjusted earnings were $2.69 per share, with revenue at $2.5 billion, both better than expected [11] - Coach sales surged by 25%, driven by strong demand, while Kate Spade continues to struggle in recovery [12][13]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, marking its sixth loss in seven days since reaching an all-time high [4][6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 326 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite dropped 0.8% [4][6] - Global stock markets also experienced declines, with London's FTSE 100 down 0.9%, France's CAC 40 down 0.6%, and Germany's DAX down 1.1% [5][6] Company Performance - Alphabet's stock fell 5.4% despite reporting stronger-than-expected profits, as investors were concerned about its aggressive AI spending plans, which could double to approximately $180 billion this year [4][6] - Qualcomm's shares dropped 9.1% after it issued a weaker profit forecast due to an industry-wide memory shortage affecting handset demand, despite reporting better-than-expected profit and revenue [5][6] - Estee Lauder's stock fell 16.9% even after beating earnings estimates, as the company warned that tariff-related pressures could reduce profits by about $100 million in its fiscal year [5][6] Economic Indicators - US unemployment benefit applications increased more than expected, indicating potential acceleration in layoffs, with layoffs announced by US-based employers surging to 108,435 last month, the highest since October [5][6] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.23% from 4.29%, reflecting a weaker labor outlook and raising expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6] Commodity Market Movements - Silver prices tumbled 12.1% amid volatility after a record-breaking rally stalled, while gold fell 1.9% to $4,855 per ounce after fluctuating sharply [5][6] - Bitcoin, referred to as "digital gold," briefly slipped below $70,000, down from a record above $124,000 in October [5][6]