Core Viewpoint - Estée Lauder's stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping 6% in the past week and continuing a downward trend due to a reported 12% year-over-year decrease in fourth-quarter net sales and a profit forecast below analyst estimates [2][3] Financial Performance - The company has lost approximately $1.9 billion in market value over the past five days, bringing its current market capitalization to around $30 billion [3] - Despite the recent losses, Estée Lauder's stock remains 13.1% higher than its level at the end of 2024, while the S&P 500 has gained 11.9% year-to-date [3] Market Sentiment - The ongoing losing streak in Estée Lauder's stock has not inspired much investor confidence, indicating potential deeper concerns or changing sentiment in the market [6][8] - The company warned of a potential $100 million impact from tariffs, contributing to investor wariness [2] Product Portfolio - Estée Lauder offers a wide range of products, including skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care items, which are sold globally [4]

Group 1 - The article initiates coverage on Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) with a Buy rating and a price target of $432.81, highlighting it as the largest dedicated beauty retail network in the U.S. with over 1,300 stores and strong digital channels [1] - Ulta Beauty offers a range of products and services including cosmetics, skincare, salon services, and private-label products, indicating a diversified business model [1] - Moretus Research employs a structured framework to identify companies with durable business models and mispriced cash flow potential, focusing on U.S. public markets [1] Group 2 - The research emphasizes rigorous fundamental analysis combined with a judgment-driven process, aiming to provide clarity and actionable insights for investors [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model, emphasizing comparability and simplicity [1] - Moretus Research targets underappreciated companies undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, which can lead to asymmetric returns for investors [1]