今天，三亚上架了2025下半年的第一块宅地《三亚中央商务区东岸单元DA02-29-05A/B地块》，靓得有点过分！ 先说数据： 这是2019年成都万华以近6个亿拿下商业用地，后被三亚回购再上架。 4月，刚刚调整规划，从100%的商用地摇身一变100%的宅地，加价1.8亿再上架，与华侨城地块如出一辙，但调整的标准高太多了！ 这妥妥的三亚市中心洋房社区，早已绝版的产品，实在令人眼红心跳。 容积率仅1.5，限高24m，地块方正，土地基地素质极佳； 占地面积32647.03㎡（约49亩），起拍价约7.8亿，初始楼面价约1.6万/㎡。 来百度APP畅享高清图片 前不久华侨城回锅拿下的DA02-17-01的容积率是3.0，限高80，这么一对比今天的新地看起来就更加眉清目秀了！ 看楼Sir除了专业还得吃瓜，咱们来回顾一下这块DA02-29-05A/B地块的前世今生。 地块位于三亚中央商务区的东岸单元，商业、湿地配置拉满； 至于谁拿嘛，在出让手册里暗示得很明显。 竞拍人条件有以下几点： 1、本次挂牌出让宗地现状为基坑，需预先对项目场地进行大面积基坑支护和地基处理，成本由竞得人承担。 同时，竞得人需为政府无偿配建三亚中央商务区 ...

The CEO of Italian real estate developer Coima faces questioning as part of a broad probe of alleged corruption in Milan property developments https://t.co/HBJhF0DUtG ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest property easing expectation for the second half of the year and beyond, aligning with incremental policy support rather than a large-scale stimulus similar to the 2015-2018 period [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference (CUWC) outlined key policy priorities for urban development, including urbanization facilitation, innovation encouragement, urban village renovation, a new real estate development model, improved urban infrastructure, and a green transition [1][2]. - The report suggests that the previous cash-backed shantytown redevelopment program is unlikely to be repeated due to reduced fiscal easing space, recognition of past housing boom costs, and persistently low urban housing demand [3][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Priorities - The CUWC emphasized urbanization, innovation, urban village renovation, a new real estate model, enhanced urban infrastructure, and green transition as critical areas for future development [1][2]. Property Market Outlook - The report anticipates modest property easing, with expectations for further mortgage rate reductions and targeted policy support for urban infrastructure and housing inventory purchases [8]. - It is projected that urban housing demand may remain below 5 million units per year for the foreseeable future, influenced by demographic trends and previous market speculation [7][14]. Economic Context - With H1 real GDP growth averaging 5.3% year-on-year, there is no immediate need for broad-based stimulus, leading to expectations of targeted easing measures to address property market downturns and labor market pressures [8].

Property sales recorded a deeper y-y decline in June as expected, despite improved constructions. We stay cautious on the physical market and expect the weak sales trend to continue in 3Q given worsened resident sentiment, more secondary inventory, and reactive policy. June property sales recorded a wider decline: Rebased national sales were -10.8% y-y in value and 5.5% y-y in volume, widening the 6M25 decline to -5.5% in value and -3.5% in volume y-y. NBS 70-city home prices continued to edge down, -0.3% a ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights specific companies with "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations [49][50]. Core Insights - The primary market is experiencing a continued decline, with new home sales volume down 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, while tier-3 and Central & Western cities are outperforming [5][9]. - Secondary market transactions are showing a slight decline, with average sales down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, indicating negative price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [26][28]. - The focus on urban renewal policies is expected to positively impact the market, particularly through demand-side stimulus measures such as urban village redevelopment [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - New homes sales volume decreased by 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, with tier-3 and Central & Western cities outperforming [5]. - Secondary transactions were down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, with negative price expectations from agents and homeowners [26]. - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold is down 1% year-over-year, while secondary GFA sold is up 16% year-over-year [8][28]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory balance decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 3.9% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.0 [36]. - Completions are expected to decline by mid-to-high teens year-over-year for June 2025, with a projected 10% decline for the full year [41]. Valuation and Developer Performance - Offshore developers saw an average share price increase of 6% week-over-week, outperforming the MSCI China index [49]. - Onshore developers averaged a 2% increase week-over-week, with specific companies like China Jinmao and Longfor receiving "Buy" ratings [49][50]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for offshore and onshore coverage is at 0.5X for 2025E, indicating a significant discount to net asset value (NAV) [49].

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling approximately 1% to below 3500 points, while the ChiNext Index surged over 2% [1] - As of the afternoon close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.42% to 3505 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.56% to 10744.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.73% to 2235.05 points [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 163.53 billion yuan, an increase of over 150 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] AI Industry Chain - Stocks in the AI industry chain rose against the trend, with New Yi Sheng (300502) hitting a 20% limit up, marking a historical high [1] - Other notable performers included Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with a nearly 17% increase, and Tianfu Communication (300394) rising about 12% [1] - The Nvidia concept stocks also saw significant gains, with China Electric Port (001287) hitting the limit up, and Huajin Technology (603296) and Inspur Information (000977) rising over 7% [1][2] Nvidia Concept Stocks - Nvidia concept stocks experienced a substantial rise, with Zhongji Xuchuang increasing nearly 17%, Shenghong Technology (300476) and Yipinhong (300723) rising over 13%, and Tianfu Communication up about 12% [2] - The Nvidia concept sector overall rose by 2.02%, ranking fifth among industry concept sectors for the day, with a weekly increase of 2.31% [2] - Nvidia announced the resumption of H20 sales to China and the launch of a new GPU compliant with Chinese regulations, which is expected to alleviate the domestic chip shortage [2][3] AI Intelligent Agent Concept - The AI intelligent agent concept also showed strength, with stocks like Dingjie Zhizhi (300378), Chutianlong (003040), and Fanwei Network (603039) hitting the limit up [4] - The AI intelligent agent sector overall rose by 1.05%, ranking eighteenth among industry concept sectors for the day [4] - A new standard for AI intelligent agent operation safety testing was released, addressing risks associated with language barriers and establishing a comprehensive risk analysis framework [4] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector saw a notable rally, with stocks like Tianbao Infrastructure (000965) and Chongqing Development (000514) hitting the limit up [6] - The Hong Kong real estate sector also experienced a surge, with Meidi Real Estate rising over 60% at one point [6] - Recent government meetings emphasized the need for comfortable and convenient living cities, indicating a potential shift in real estate development strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group announced that by the end of June 2025, the total contracted sales amount reached RMB 35.01 billion, with a contracted sales area of 2.614 million square meters [1] Group Summary - As of June, the total contracted sales amount for the month was RMB 6.46 billion, with a contracted sales area of 519,000 square meters [1] - The contracted sales amount attributable to the company's shareholders for June was RMB 4.64 billion, with a sales area of 394,000 square meters [1]

Group 1 - The AI computing hardware sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by strong policy support and increasing demand for data centers, with companies like Xinyiseng and Zhongji Xuchuang seeing substantial gains [3] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in areas related to urban renewal and affordable housing, as local policies become more favorable, although traditional developers are still struggling [3][4] - The overall market is witnessing a divergence, with many stocks declining while a few sectors, particularly AI and real estate with policy backing, are performing well, indicating a selective investment environment [4] Group 2 - The solar, coal, and power sectors are facing challenges, with companies like Yamaton and Dayou Energy experiencing significant declines due to oversupply and strict policy regulations [3][4] - The market is characterized by a concentration of funds in sectors with clear growth logic, suggesting that investors need to be more discerning in their stock selections [4] - The rise in the ChiNext index is primarily driven by heavyweight stocks, while the majority of stocks are declining, highlighting the importance of focusing on industry trends and company fundamentals rather than just index movements [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong property sector, indicating that the sector rating is supported by buying flows rather than solely fundamentals [9][37]. Core Insights - National support is seen as a game changer for Hong Kong, enhancing its position as a financial hub and protecting asset prices [8]. - The property sector represents approximately 5.8% of the Hang Seng Index, with expectations of increased buying flows due to China’s yield compression [9][17]. - Short-term buying flows are expected to benefit high-yield and index stocks, particularly after a pullback in July [9][39]. Summary by Sections I. National Support - National support strengthens Hong Kong's financial hub status, attracting talent and capital, which helps protect asset prices [8]. II. Flow Dynamics - The report highlights that new buying power from China’s yield compression is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with flows outpacing fundamentals in the short term [9]. - Southbound holdings in the Hong Kong property sector increased by 1% in the first half of 2025, reaching 2.4% [9]. - The mutual fund KPI reform in May 2025 is anticipated to drive additional buying flows into the property sector [16]. III. Fundamentals - The residential market is nearing a bottom, with easing oversupply and expectations for a profit upcycle starting in 2027 [51]. - Demand for residential properties is supported by household formation and an influx of new talent, with rent growth indicating underlying demand [51]. - The office market is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in Central, with positive absorption expected [50]. - Retail sales turned positive in May 2025, driven by increased visitation and a weaker Hong Kong dollar [2][50]. - Commercial real estate continues to face challenges, particularly for smaller developers, due to liquidity issues and funding pressures [34][49]. IV. Company Recommendations - Top picks for investment include Swire Properties, Hongkong Land, and Link REIT, with expectations of potential buybacks and stable dividends [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for specific companies in the property sector, including CR Land, CR Mixc, and Longfor, while identifying distressed names like Sunac as potential outperformers in a speculation-driven rally [1][27]. Core Insights - The property sector experienced a 6% increase on July 10 due to speculation about a potential high-level meeting aimed at reviving the struggling market. However, if no concrete measures are announced, profit-taking is expected [1][4]. - The report highlights a worsening property market, with top 100 developers' sales in June dropping 26% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline compared to previous years [5][17]. - There are rising hopes for new policy support in the coming months, driven by the deteriorating property data, which may lead to tactical buying opportunities, especially during dips [1][5]. Summary by Sections Market Speculation - Speculation about a high-level meeting to support the property sector has emerged, but the accuracy of such reports has historically been low, with only a 40-45% verification rate [4][12]. - The last Central City Work Conference was held in 2015, focusing on urbanization rather than directly boosting the property market [4][14]. Property Market Data - The primary market is showing significant declines, with a 26% year-on-year drop in sales for top developers in June, marking the second worst performance since 2021 [5][17]. - Home prices in tier-1 cities have also declined, with a month-on-month drop of 1.21% in June, mirroring declines seen before previous policy support announcements [5][19]. Potential Policy Directions - The report outlines four levels of potential policy support, with Level 1 and Level 2 being more likely in the near term, focusing on easing home purchase restrictions and expanding inventory purchases [6][7]. - Level 3 and Level 4 policies, which would be more effective but less likely, include calls for home price stabilization and a national stimulus program [8][9]. Company Recommendations - The report identifies CR Land, CR Mixc, and Longfor as fundamental top picks, while suggesting that POE survivors and small-cap SOEs like Jinmao offer the best risk-reward balance [1][27]. - Distressed companies such as Sunac may outperform in a speculation-driven environment, although this performance is likely to be unsustainable [1].