Core Points - Trading in U.S. index futures and other contracts was halted due to technical issues at CME Group, impacting investor sentiment ahead of the market's reopening after Thanksgiving [1][2][3] Group 1 - CME Group experienced disruptions in trading due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, which affected futures tracking major indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 [2][3] - The halt in trading occurred on Black Friday, a significant day for market activity, as investors were looking to gauge sentiment [1][2] - CME Group stated that support teams are working to resolve the issue and will provide updates to clients regarding pre-open details [3]

Group 1 - CME Group is one of the most important financial derivatives markets globally, covering various sectors including agricultural products, energy, stock indices, foreign exchange, interest rates, and metals [1] - Trading was forced to pause due to cooling issues at a data center operated by CyrusOne, which provides services to CME Group [1] - As of the time of reporting, CME Group had not provided any updates regarding its operational status [2]

Core Insights - Sands Capital's "Sands Capital Select Growth Strategy" Q3 2025 investor letter indicates a recovery in U.S. large-cap growth equities driven by strong corporate earnings, AI enthusiasm, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing [1] - The portfolio achieved a return of 6.3% (net) in the quarter, underperforming the benchmark's 10.5% gain [1] Company Overview - Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) is highlighted as a significant stock in the Sands Capital Select Growth Strategy, recognized for its market infrastructure, data services, and technology solutions for various entities [2] - As of November 26, 2025, Intercontinental Exchange's stock closed at $156.29 per share, with a market capitalization of $89.464 billion [2] Financial Performance - Intercontinental Exchange reported a 10% increase in sales and a 19% rise in adjusted earnings per share year over year, both exceeding consensus expectations [3] - The company is experiencing strong performance in its Mortgage Technology division, with accelerating refinancing activity contributing to improved profitability [3] Market Position - Intercontinental Exchange is not among the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds, with 84 hedge fund portfolios holding its stock at the end of Q2 2025, down from 94 in the previous quarter [4] - While the potential of Intercontinental Exchange as an investment is acknowledged, the company is viewed as having less upside compared to certain AI stocks [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The holiday season has positively impacted market gains, with the market advancing for a third consecutive day on November 26, 2025 [1] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is significantly low at 17, down 27% over the last week, indicating reduced investor anxiety [2] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, driven by a notable increase in Robinhood's stock, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also recorded gains of 0.8% and 0.7% respectively [8] Group 2: Robinhood's Market Activity - Robinhood's stock has surged by 244% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest [3] - The company has acquired a 90% stake in MIAX, a financial exchanges platform, in partnership with Susquehanna, enhancing its position in the predictions market [4] - Following the acquisition news, Robinhood's stock rose by 11%, contributing to its overall 245% year-to-date rally [5] Group 3: Predictions Market Insights - The predictions market, which gained traction during the 2024 Presidential elections, now constitutes approximately 3-8% of the US sports betting market, with Kalshi being the leading player [5] - The overall sports betting market could exceed $1 trillion, presenting significant growth opportunities for Robinhood amid regulatory considerations [6] - Robinhood is actively exploring future partnership opportunities to develop products tailored to its customers' needs [6]

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood Markets, Inc. is expanding into prediction markets through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, acquiring LedgerX to launch a futures and derivatives exchange, enhancing its presence in the prediction market industry [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Venture Structure - The independent exchange will be managed by the joint venture, with Robinhood as the controlling partner and Susquehanna International Group providing initial liquidity [2]. - The venture will acquire MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market, Derivatives Clearing Organization, and Swap Execution Facility, previously known as LedgerX [3]. Group 2: Prediction Markets Momentum - Prediction markets have become Robinhood's fastest-growing product line, with over 9 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million customers in one year [4]. - The new exchange aims to provide a broader selection of futures and derivatives to traders, with operations expected to begin in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Following the announcement, Robinhood stock surged over 12% on November 26, 2025, contributing to a year-to-date rally of over 243% [5]. - At the time of writing, HOOD is trading at approximately $128.49, with analysts citing the expansion into prediction markets as a key driver for the recent price momentum [6].

Core Insights - The prediction markets are experiencing significant growth, with Robin Hood partnering with Susuana to launch a predictions futures market, indicating a booming trend in this sector [1][2] - CME Group is positioned to capitalize on the emerging prediction markets, similar to how it did with futures markets in the past [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Robin Hood is tapping into the emerging retail client base, which is increasingly interested in prediction markets, akin to the early days of futures trading [2][3] - The prediction markets are fragmented, with various platforms like Interactive Brokers and sportsbook-style platforms, indicating that the market is still in its infancy [3] - CME Group is adopting a regulatory-first approach to standardize the market structure for prediction markets, which could lead to significant opportunities [3][4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - There is a notable increase in younger investors entering the market, with brokerage firms reporting a rise in new accounts, particularly on platforms like Robin Hood [5][6] - Social media is heavily influencing the trading behavior of younger investors, driving order flow and engagement in prediction markets [6] - Prediction markets serve as a simpler entry point for new investors, allowing them to engage with trading through straightforward yes or no questions, making it more accessible than traditional options trading [7]

Core Insights - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is leveraging the prediction market boom to create a structural growth engine through the acquisition of a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange in partnership with Susquehanna International Group [1][10] - The company plans to launch a dedicated futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse by 2026, positioning prediction markets as a long-term core business [3][12] Company Developments - MIAX Derivatives Exchange is a CFTC-licensed entity, and Miami International Holdings retains a 10% stake, providing regulatory credibility and a robust infrastructure [2] - Robinhood's prediction markets have become its fastest-growing product line, with approximately 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in the first year, generating over $100 million in annualized revenues [4][12] - Management anticipates a potential run rate of $300 million over time, driven by strong customer demand and engagement [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of an independent futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse will allow Robinhood to manage clearing and execution internally, improving economics and product flexibility [5][6][10] - This move is expected to enhance the company's ability to innovate and respond to market demands, particularly in political, macroeconomic, and sports markets [6] Competitive Landscape - Robinhood faces competition from other firms in the prediction market space, notably Kalshi, which is expanding its regulated event-contract offerings [7] - Traditional derivatives market players like Cboe Global Markets and CME Group are also entering the prediction market arena, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance of prediction markets [8][11] - Cboe Global plans to launch event-based contracts tied to economic data, while CME Group is partnering with FanDuel to introduce a consumer-focused platform for trading event contracts [9] Market Outlook - The growing participation in prediction markets signals their transition into a mainstream asset class, characterized by increasing competition, deeper liquidity, and innovation [11] - Robinhood's prediction market business is expected to drive significant growth, appealing to younger traders and diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional models [12]

Core Insights - Polymarket has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for intermediated trading in the U.S., allowing customers to trade contracts through brokerages and futures commission merchants, marking a significant step towards becoming a fully regulated exchange [1][2] - The approval follows Polymarket's acquisition of QCEX, a licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million, which was a crucial move for its re-entry into the U.S. market [3] - The platform is preparing for a U.S. launch and is expected to be available to traders soon [4] - Polymarket plans to launch a native token and airdrop following its U.S. relaunch, and is in discussions to raise additional funding at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion [6] - The platform has achieved a cumulative trading volume exceeding $35.7 billion, with October's volume alone reaching $4 billion [7] Company Developments - Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket, described the CFTC's approval as a "key milestone" and praised the commission for its unprecedented pace and thorough feedback on applications [2][3] - The platform gained prominence during the last election season, with over $3 billion wagered on the presidential race outcome, accurately predicting Donald Trump's victory [7]

(Reuters) -Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group on Tuesday struck a deal to take over a regulated exchange run by ​Miami International Holdings, giving the companies a major boost in their push ‌to establish a stronghold in prediction markets. The companies are acquiring a 90% stake in LedgerX, ‌which was a part of now-defunct crypto exchange FTX. The platform began operating under the MIAX umbrella after parent company Miami International Holdings acquired LedgerX from the FTX bankruptcy ...

Market Volatility and Trading Activity - US Treasury yields experienced significant fluctuations in April, with the 10-year note rising from 3.87% on April 4 to 4.59% on April 11 following tariff announcements by President Trump [1] - Despite the volatility in Treasury yields, trading in CME's interest rate markets remained stable, with average daily volume (ADV) increasing by 46% to a record 18.4 million contracts [2] Liquidity and Risk Management - CME Group's fixed income markets maintained liquidity during periods of high volatility, with rates markets consistently trading at minimum price increments [3] - The technology and processing systems at CME played a crucial role in sustaining liquidity and managing risk, allowing clients to trade efficiently even during market stress [5] - Liquidity at CME remained robust, with market-makers actively quoting despite tighter and more expensive conditions [5] Performance Metrics - BrokerTec, CME's interdealer platform for US government debt trading, saw ADV more than double from $106.6 billion to $249.2 billion in the week following the tariff announcement, marking a 134% increase [6][7] - CME's extensive portfolio margining program generates $20 billion to $25 billion daily for clearing members, with cross-margining agreements contributing significantly to margin savings [10] Product Innovation and Retail Engagement - CME has expanded its product offerings to attract retail investors, launching e-micro contracts and spot quoted futures, which have seen over four billion micro contracts traded since their introduction [12][13] - Institutional clients are also utilizing CME's retail products for more precise hedging, indicating a crossover appeal [14] - CME is actively seeking feedback from institutional clients to enhance its product offerings, particularly in the competitive crypto market [15]