期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 短期区间交易，关注 98000-106000 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 25 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低做多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05 谨慎追空，待反弹 ...

01 金融期货策略建议 目 录 重点数据跟踪 02 股指关注两会预期，国债 关注供给压力 2026-02-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：四大股指均震荡运行，节前有所承压。 p 核心观点：中国商务部：敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关税措施。美国海关称将从2月24日 起停止征收被最高法院裁定违法的关税。美民主党称将阻止任何延长关税企图，力推强制退款方案。欧 盟冻结对美欧贸易协议的批准程序，并警告称特朗普的新关税破坏双方贸易协定。美联储理事沃勒： CEO们称AI将致大量裁员，3月利率决议取决于2月劳动力数据。AI担忧加剧，贵金属走强，股指短期 或震荡运行，两会前或震荡偏强运行，可关注市场对两会预期的情绪。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示大盘指数或震荡运行。 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass to trade weakly in a range [1][7][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][10][11][13][14][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC; low - level rebound for caustic soda; selling short on rallies for soda ash; strong - biased oscillation for styrene; range trading for rubber, urea, methanol; weak - biased oscillation for polyolefins [1][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Strong - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn; oscillation for apples and jujubes [1][24][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract of live pigs, selling short on rallies; selling short on rallies for near - month egg contracts if culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short - selling on rallies for soybean meal; buying on dips for oils [1][28][29][30] Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the impacts of policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors on different futures markets [1][5][8][10] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, buy on dips. AI concerns boost precious metals, and the market may be strong before the Two Sessions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Oscillation. Despite supply pressure, the bond market may continue the bull market if the pressure can be digested [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The tariff game continues, and the steel price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to low valuation and weak driving forces [8] - **Glass**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply reduction and demand weakness coexist, and there are potential risks and uncertainties [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest buying on dips. Supply is tight, demand is resilient, and copper remains a strategic resource [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is expected to improve, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains [11] - **Nickel**: Suggest buying on dips moderately. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price [13] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is in a recovery trend [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical events and economic data affect the prices, and the mid - term price centers are rising [14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. Supply and demand factors coexist, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, but there are potential opportunities from policies and exports [16][18] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level rebound. Supply pressure is large, and the price may be supported if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [18] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price may be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Styrene**: Strong - biased oscillation. Low inventory during the Spring Festival and export support the price, but supply may increase in March [19][20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is in the off - season, and demand is expected to support the price [20] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, and demand is supported by agricultural and industrial needs, with stable prices [21] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand is weak, and the market is weak [22][23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply is high, demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulates [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - biased oscillation. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be strong after the festival [24] - **Apples**: Oscillation. The trading volume of different grades of apples varies in different regions [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillation. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes varies by region [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract, selling short on rallies. Short - term price is under pressure, and long - term price depends on capacity reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Selling short on rallies for near - month contracts if culling does not accelerate. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak after the festival [28] - **Corn**: Range trading. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is relatively loose [29] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - selling on rallies. Global supply is abundant, and domestic supply is loose from March to June [29][30] - **Oils**: Buying on dips. After the Spring Festival, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market higher, with different performances among varieties [30][31][32][33][34][35]

Group 1: Financial Derivatives - The overall macro environment is optimistic, with low inflation data stimulating interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased liquidity and risk appetite in the markets [1][2] - U.S. and Iran negotiations are ongoing, with tensions remaining due to unresolved nuclear issues, while U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks are gradually cooling down [1] - Recommendations include a cautious approach post-holiday, suggesting to observe market movements before making significant investments [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - During the Spring Festival, precious metals experienced significant volatility, initially declining before rebounding due to U.S. GDP growth data falling short of expectations [2][3] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump on global imports has raised concerns about trade conflicts and economic downturns, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2] - Silver saw a notable increase of nearly 8% in a single day, indicating strong market reactions to geopolitical developments [2] Group 3: Shipping Index (European Route) - Shipping rates on the European route remained stable during the holiday, with no new positions taken by major shipping companies [3] - The overall sentiment in the market is positive due to a rise in commodity prices, although the shipping rates are expected to face downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated between $12,500 and $13,100 per ton during the holiday, influenced by weak domestic demand and rising inventories [4] - Aluminum prices increased by approximately 1.34% during the holiday, with inventory levels in China expected to reach a five-year high post-holiday, potentially pressuring prices [5] - Zinc prices remained stable, with expectations of a slight rebound in processing fees as domestic mines resume production [6] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices rose over 5% during the holiday due to geopolitical tensions, with U.S. crude oil inventories decreasing unexpectedly [16] - PX prices increased by $25 per ton, driven by higher oil prices and strong demand from the polyester sector, although overall supply and demand are expected to weaken in the first quarter [17][18] - Ethylene glycol prices are anticipated to face downward pressure due to high port inventories, despite expectations of improved demand in the second quarter [19] Group 6: Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean prices fluctuated, influenced by trade expectations and supply concerns from Argentina, with a slight overall increase of about 1.67% [35] - Palm oil prices rose by approximately 1.89% during the holiday, but are expected to face downward pressure as the traditional demand season approaches [36] - Corn prices are expected to remain stable post-holiday, with supply pressures from increased market activity and demand from deep processing enterprises [37]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, methanol, steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, apple [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and expects a daily surplus of 373,000 barrels, mainly due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1][3][12] - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's cotton exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.5 million bales, a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The COMEX's silver inventory has decreased, with a net out-of-warehouse volume of 4.7 million ounces in 24 hours [1] - Most domestic futures contracts fell at the night session, with crude oil down over 2% and caustic soda up over 3% [1] - The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - For precious metals, after market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The China-US trade "ceasefire" is expected to be extended [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan outright repurchase operation on February 13, with a 6-month term. The 6-month outright repurchase will be increased for the sixth consecutive month, with an increase of 50 billion yuan [7] Industry News - The Ministry of Education has issued an opinion on deepening the reform of key elements in vocational education teaching, focusing on adding new majors in fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets - Most external market varieties showed price declines on February 12, with London silver having the largest drop of 10.73%, followed by ICE Brent crude oil at 2.99% and London gold at 3.17%. Only a few varieties such as ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT wheat showed price increases [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**：The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - **Treasury Bonds**：Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**：sc crude oil fell 5.14% at the night session. The global oil market is facing a large surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand [3][12] - **Methanol**：Methanol fell 0.04% at the night session. The overall coastal inventory is basically flat, and the inventory process is slow [13] - **Natural Rubber**：Natural rubber slightly declined. With the approaching Spring Festival, risk control and position reduction are recommended [14] - **Polyolefins**：Polyolefin futures mainly fell. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and short-term prices follow cost fluctuations [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**：Glass futures slightly fell, and soda ash futures mainly declined. The supply and demand of glass are gradually being repaired, while the supply of soda ash has slightly shrunk, and the effectiveness of supply and demand repair needs further observation [16] Metals - **Precious Metals**：Precious metals fell, with silver having a larger decline. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] - **Copper**：Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [18] - **Zinc**：Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Aluminum**：The short-term industrial situation of aluminum is relatively weak, but in the long term, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relatively strong support for the price [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**：The market sentiment has turned weak again, and the futures price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the right-side trading opportunities after volatility reduction and participate cautiously [21][22] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**：The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend at the night session. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and import policies [23] - **Steel**：The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern [24] - **Iron Ore**：The short-term iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak operation, and steel mills are expected to replenish inventory on demand [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**：Domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the external market, but the high inventory and sufficient supply in the far month are expected to continue to put pressure on prices [26][27] - **Oils and Fats**：Oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend at the night session. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is in the de-stocking cycle, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [28] - **Sugar**：Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term, with the international sugar price breaking through the downward trend [29] - **Cotton**：Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the near term, with potential pressure on the upside in the short term [30] - **Hogs**：The short-term hog price may show a narrow-range shock, supported by sentiment and local inventory replenishment, but the overall upside space is limited [31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**：EC rose 6.4%. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the verification of cargo volume expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term pre - holiday stock index is expected to be in a strong sideways trend, accumulating strength for further upward movement. Long - term long positions in stock index futures should be held [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - Copper prices may be in a sideways and slightly upward trend; aluminum prices are likely to maintain a sideways movement; there are low - buying opportunities for alumina; zinc prices are expected to move sideways, and it is advisable to wait and see; nickel prices are in a strong sideways trend in the short - term, and long - term high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. Stainless steel futures are in a strong movement, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - Precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and move in a sideways range in the short - term. Platinum and palladium are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1] - For industrial silicon, the northwest is increasing production while the southwest is reducing it. For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see. For lithium carbonate, there is a need for a correction [1] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is not recommended to hold unilateral speculative positions during the holiday. For iron ore, it is not advisable to chase long at the current position. For black metals like manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. For soda ash, the price is under pressure in the medium - term. For coking coal and coke, it is advisable to seize the opportunity of the price increase on the futures market to cash out the physical goods or establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position [1] - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For soybean oil, it is expected to move sideways in the short - term. For rapeseed oil, the subsequent supply contradiction is expected to ease. For cotton, the market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". For sugar, the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. For corn, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound movement. For soybeans, it is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of M2609 [1] - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see. For logs, the futures price has an upward driving force [1] - For fuel oil and asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and they follow crude oil. For rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber, the short - term is in a wide - range fluctuation, and BR rubber has an upward expectation in the long - term. For PTA and short - fiber, the downstream PTA industry is strong. For ethylene and glycol, the ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units, and the glycol price is waiting at a low level. For pure benzene, the import demand is weak. For styrene, the spot price is supported. For water hyacinth, the upside space is limited. For methanol, it is a situation of long - short entanglement. For PP, the supply pressure is relatively large. For PVC, the future expectation is relatively optimistic. For LPG, the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] - For the container shipping European line, the pre - holiday freight rate has peaked and declined. The airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Short - term pre - holiday is expected to be in a strong sideways trend, and long - term long positions should be held [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has warned about interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Pre - holiday downstream demand is weak, but copper prices may be in a sideways and slightly upward trend as market sentiment improves [1] - Aluminum: Industrial driving force is limited, and pre - holiday market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. Aluminum prices may maintain a sideways movement [1] - Alumina: Domestic operating capacity has decreased, and there are disruptions in the supply of a large - scale alumina enterprise in North China. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and market sentiment has stabilized. Zinc prices are expected to move sideways, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Nickel: The US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and market sentiment fluctuated. Indonesia's nickel ore quota policies have increased concerns about future supply. Short - term nickel prices are in a strong sideways trend, and there are high - inventory pressures in the long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Stainless steel: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and macro sentiment is fluctuating. Stainless steel futures are in a strong movement. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - Tin: The short - term market sentiment has stabilized, but the price fluctuation is still large. In the short - term high - volatility situation, investors should pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals: The US non - farm payrolls in January were strong, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed. Due to high geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and move in a sideways range in the short - term [1] - Platinum and palladium: The US non - farm payrolls in January were strong, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing the upward trend. However, fundamentals and key minerals support the prices, so they are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [1] - Industrial silicon: The northwest is increasing production, while the southwest is reducing it. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see [1] - Lithium carbonate: It is the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price has increased significantly and needs a correction [1] Black metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Spot trading is close to suspension, and futures prices are moving sideways. It is not recommended to hold unilateral speculative positions during the holiday. It is advisable to participate in the market by going long on the basis [1] - Iron ore: There is sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure. It is not advisable to chase long at the current position [1] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: It is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Energy consumption dual - control and anti - involution may have an impact on supply [1] - Soda ash: It follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: It is the off - season for black metals, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment is almost over. The futures market is more affected by capital sentiment. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of price increase on the futures market to cash out the physical goods or establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position [1] - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: The MPOB monthly report data has a bullish expectation difference, but the subsequent fundamentals still have pressure, which has little impact on the futures market. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1] - Soybean oil: Supported by the strong movement of US soybeans, the South American weather is normal, and it is difficult to have weather - related speculation. More attention should be paid to the Sino - US soybean trade situation [1] - Rapeseed oil: The anti - dumping final ruling result of Canadian rapeseed has been released. After March, the tariff is expected to be adjusted to about 15%. Some oil mills have started purchasing, and the subsequent supply contradiction is expected to ease [1] - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force" [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force, and attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] - Corn: Affected by the import restriction news, the futures market is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on - the - ground grain in the production area. The overall market is expected to maintain a range - bound movement [1] - Soybeans: The expected increase in US soybean exports has boosted the US futures market, but the decline in Brazilian basis has partially offset the impact. The domestic futures market is weaker than the overseas market. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of M2609 [1] Others - Pulp: There are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side has weakened after inventory replenishment. It is advisable to wait and see when the commodity market sentiment fluctuates greatly [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has increased, the arrival volume in February has decreased, and the overseas quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1] Energy and chemical industry - Fuel oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the commodity market sentiment has cooled. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The 14th Five - Year Plan rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] - Natural rubber: The raw material cost has strong support, the commodity market sentiment fluctuates, the pre - holiday downstream demand has weakened, and the futures - spot price difference has expanded to the same - period high [1] - BR rubber: The cost - end butadiene has strong bottom support, the profit of private butadiene rubber plants is still in a loss, the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, the butadiene inventory is decreasing, and the high inventory of butadiene rubber is a potential negative factor. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1] - PTA: The PX - mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction, and the downstream PTA industry is strong. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no production - reduction plan for the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1] - Ethylene and glycol: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined, several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units in February, and the glycol price is waiting at a low level [1] - Pure benzene: The inventory is high, and the import demand is weak. The US - Asia price difference is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene price and economic situation are recovering, supported by supply tightening, unexpected Middle East shutdowns, surging export demand, and rising cost - end prices [1] - Water hyacinth: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. There is support from anti - involution and the cost end [1] - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. It is a situation of long - short entanglement [1] - PP: The supply pressure is relatively large due to high operating load, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the price has returned to a reasonable range, and crude oil is in a slightly upward trend [1] - PVC: The global production capacity put into operation in 2026 is small, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1] - LPG: The February CP price has risen, and the March purchase is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, the short - term risk premium has declined, and the overseas cold - wave driving logic has gradually slowed down. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping European line: The pre - holiday freight rate has peaked and declined. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, before the Spring Festival, stock index futures are expected to oscillate strongly to accumulate strength for further upward movement, and long - term long positions in stock index futures should be held [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand is still weak, market participation has declined, and copper, aluminum, and alumina prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to decline and then stabilize, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Market sentiment has improved. Indonesia's ESDM has issued a nickel ore RKAB quota of 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons in 2026, and the approval of nickel ore quotas has been slow recently, increasing concerns about future nickel ore supply. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to be strong, but are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the medium - to long - term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1]. - The raw material end of stainless steel still has support, and with the improvement of macro - sentiment, stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term and hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - In the short - term, macro - negative factors have been exhausted, but the volatility of tin prices is still large. In the short - term, investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - The weak US dollar index, uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and China's continuous gold purchases for 15 months support precious metal prices. However, before the Spring Festival, market funds may be cautious, and precious metals are expected to stabilize and oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The weak US dollar index supports platinum and palladium prices, but the US Trade Representative's discussion of an agreement on critical minerals may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium prices, so they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [1]. - In the cement industry, production has increased in the Northwest and decreased in the Southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has declined [1]. - In the new energy vehicle industry, it is the off - season, but energy storage demand is strong, and there is a rush to export batteries. The price has risen significantly and there is a need for a correction [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the expectation is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to exit long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - For iron ore, there is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this level [1]. - For silicon iron and glass, the reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Energy consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash follows glass, and its medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal and coke, during the off - season of the black industry, before the Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment is almost over. The market pays more attention to capital sentiment. It is recommended to cash in on the spot when the market rises and establish cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. - For palm oil, the MPOB monthly report data has a positive expected difference, but the subsequent fundamentals still have pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [1]. - For soybean oil, the cost is supported by the strong US soybean market. There is no abnormal weather in South America, and it is recommended to pay more attention to Sino - US soybean trade trends. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - For rapeseed oil, after the anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian rapeseed, the tariff is expected to be adjusted to about 15% after March, and the supply contradiction is expected to ease [1]. - For cotton, there is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - For sugar, there is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term [1]. - For corn, before the Spring Festival, trading is coming to an end, and the price fluctuation is limited. After the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, policy - grain release, import arrivals, and new - season wheat growth. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - For soybeans, the increase in US soybean export expectations boosts the US market, but the decline in Brazilian discounts partially offsets the impact. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent selling pressure of Brazilian discounts and consider going long on M2609 at a low level [1]. - For pulp, there are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side weakens after inventory replenishment. It is recommended to wait and see when the commodity sentiment fluctuates significantly [1]. - For logs, the spot price has risen, the arrival volume in February is expected to decline, and the external quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - For live pigs, the spot price is gradually stabilizing, demand is supported, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cool down, and the commodity market sentiment has turned bearish. In the short - term, it follows crude oil [1]. - For asphalt, the supply of raw material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, the profit is high, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction may be falsified [1]. - For natural rubber, the raw material cost has strong support, the market sentiment has turned bearish, the downstream demand before the Spring Festival has weakened, and the basis has widened to a high level [1]. - For BR rubber, the cost of butadiene has strong support, private cis - butadiene rubber plants may reduce production due to losses, but the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is a potential negative factor. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - For PTA, the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed, PX maintains fundamental resilience, the downstream PTA industry is strong, and the domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high with no planned production cuts during the Spring Festival and no new capacity throughout the year [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the production profit of naphtha cracking has declined, several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units in February, and the price is waiting at a low level [1]. - For pure benzene, the inventory is high and the import demand is weak. The Asia - US spread is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation are recovering, supported by supply tightening, unexpected Middle East shutdowns, surging export demand, and rising costs [1]. - For urea, the export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand has limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support [1]. - For methanol, it is affected by the situation in Iran, with expected import reduction, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. The downstream MTO leading device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude restarted on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. Inland transportation costs have risen due to cold air, and northwest enterprises have large inventory - clearing pressure and are selling at reduced prices [2]. - For crude oil, it oscillates strongly, the price has returned to a reasonable range, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment has ended, with flat demand during the holiday [2]. - For PVC, there is less global production in 2026, the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the rush to export has slowed down [2]. - For liquid chlorine, the macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is trading fundamentals again, the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is at a low level, the price of liquid chlorine has weakened, and the spot price has risen slightly [2]. - For LPG, the CP price in February has risen, the purchase in March is still relatively tight, the short - term risk premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has declined, the driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, the market expectation is weakening, the basis is expected to widen, the domestic PDH operating rate has declined, the profit is expected to recover seasonally, and the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. The ports are continuously reducing inventory, but the domestic civil gas is sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [2]. - For container shipping, the pre - festival freight rate has peaked and declined, airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights, and airlines expect to stop the price decline and raise prices strongly after the off - season in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Short - term strong oscillation before the Spring Festival, long - term long positions held [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank warns of interest rate risks, attention on Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper, aluminum, alumina: Oscillation due to weak downstream demand and increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Zinc: Cost center stabilizes, price expected to decline and then stabilize, wait - and - see recommended [1]. - Nickel: Short - term strong due to supply concerns and improved macro - sentiment, long - term suppression from high inventory [1]. - Stainless steel: Raw material support and improved macro - sentiment, short - term long at low prices, light positions during holiday [1]. - Tin: High short - term volatility, focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - Precious metals: Supported by various factors, but cautious market funds before Spring Festival, short - term stable oscillation [1]. - Platinum and palladium: Supported by weak US dollar, but agreement discussion may cause fluctuations, short - term wide - range fluctuation [1]. New energy and related industries - Polysilicon and organic silicon: December production decline [1]. - New energy vehicles: Off - season, but strong energy storage demand and battery export rush, price correction needed [1]. Building materials - Cement: Production increase in Northwest and decrease in Southwest [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: Strong expectation but weak spot, insufficient upward momentum, exit long positions and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - Iron ore: Upward pressure, not recommended to chase long [1]. - Silicon iron and glass: Weak reality, strong expectation, supply may be affected by energy consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, medium - term supply - demand relaxation, price under pressure [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Off - season, focus on capital sentiment, cash in on spot when rising and do cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: MPOB report has positive difference, but subsequent fundamentals have pressure, wait - and - see before Spring Festival [1]. - Soybean oil: Cost supported by US soybeans, no abnormal South American weather, short - term oscillation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Anti - dumping ruling, supply contradiction expected to ease [1]. - Cotton: Short - term support but no driving force, attention on future policies and market conditions [1]. - Sugar: Global surplus, domestic new - crop supply increase, short - seller consensus, cost support if price falls, lack of short - term driving force [1]. - Corn: Pre - festival trading end, post - festival attention on selling pressure, policies, and wheat growth, range oscillation [1]. - Soybeans: US export boost, Brazilian discount impact, domestic market weaker, consider long on M2609 at low level [1]. Forest products - Pulp: Supply disturbances, demand weakens after inventory replenishment, wait - and - see during significant commodity sentiment fluctuations [1]. - Logs: Spot price rise, expected decline in February arrivals and rise in external quotation, upward driving force for futures [1]. Livestock - Live pigs: Spot price stabilizing, demand support, production capacity not fully released [1]. Energy and chemicals - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspension, Middle East geopolitical cooling, short - term follows crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Sufficient raw material supply, high profit, demand falsification possibility [1]. - Natural rubber: Cost support, bearish market sentiment, weak pre - festival downstream demand, widened basis [1]. - BR rubber: Butadiene cost support, plant production reduction expectation, high inventory risk, short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term upward expectation [1]. - PTA: PX spread narrowing, PX resilience, strong downstream industry, high production and no new capacity [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Naphtha cracking profit decline, Korean producers maintain operating rate, low - price waiting [1]. - Pure benzene: High inventory, weak import demand, Asia - US spread not enough for arbitrage, styrene recovery [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment easing, limited domestic upside, anti - involution and cost support [1]. - Methanol: Affected by Iran, import reduction expected, downstream negative feedback, device changes, Iran situation and inland inventory - clearing [2]. - Crude oil: Strong oscillation, price in reasonable range, pre - festival inventory replenishment end, flat holiday demand [2]. - PVC: Future optimism with capacity elimination, current poor fundamentals, slowed export rush [2]. - Liquid chlorine: Macro - sentiment subsides, trading fundamentals, weak fundamentals, low price, liquid chlorine weakening, spot rise [2]. - LPG: Rising CP price, tight March purchase, declining risk premium, weakening expectation, basis widening, bearish demand, port inventory reduction and domestic gas sufficiency [2]. Shipping - Container shipping: Pre - festival freight rate decline, cautious airline resumption, expected post - off - season price increase [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish and buy on dips", "range trading", "temporary wait - and - see", etc. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures products in different sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment for each product. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggest buying on dips. Overseas rebound and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may lead to a slightly bullish and volatile trend [1][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Despite institutional demand for holding bonds during the holiday, factors like resistance at the 60 - day moving average, upcoming important meetings, and bond supply uncertainties contribute to the range - bound movement [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, with price increases driven by factors like price adjustments by Shenhua and local inventory - building demand, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price is currently trading in a range, with low static valuation and weakening cost support. It is recommended to trade with light positions before the holiday [8]. - **Glass**: Suggest buying on dips. Although there are still upward pressure and industry rumors, the futures price has dropped to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the future [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level range - bound. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, with concerns about AI bubbles and geopolitical issues. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to stabilize in a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: High - level range - bound. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weakening. The overall market sentiment is still bullish on non - ferrous metals, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the holiday [13]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has boosted the price, but the current market has fully priced in this factor, and the fundamental situation is weak [15]. - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [16][17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman and changes in the US economic data, the medium - term price center of both has shifted upwards, but the short - term is in an adjustment state [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand situation is complex, with issues such as the suspension of mines in Yichun and the increase in South American lithium salt imports. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level wide - range trading. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. Attention should be paid to export policies and cost fluctuations [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level range - bound. Temporarily wait and see. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and production cuts [20]. - **Styrene**: Range trading. There is a rebound supported by factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [22]. - **Rubber**: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile [22]. - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. The price is expected to trade in a range [23]. - **Methanol**: Range trading. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Weakly bearish and volatile. The downstream demand is weakening during the pre - holiday off - season, the supply is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies [26]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the market expectation is poor. It is advisable to leave the market and observe for the time being [27]. Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Volatile adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28]. - **Apples**: Range - bound. The overall market in the producing areas is stable, and the trading volume of some varieties is average [28]. - **Jujubes**: Range - bound. The purchase price in the producing areas is based on quality, and the market is stable [29]. Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Partially take profits on short positions before the Spring Festival and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price trend depends on factors such as capacity reduction [29]. - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the market is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the supply situation in the medium - to long - term [31]. - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, be cautious when chasing the rise, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. The medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level range - bound. For the M2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as South American production and domestic demand [33]. - **Oils and Fats**: High - level range - bound. Suggest buying on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The market situation of different oils is different, with soybean oil relatively strong and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak [34][39].