中盛期货 股指、黄金周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 股指基本面数据 中盛期货 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 国内外宏观经济数据 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 2025年12月官方制造业PMI上升至50.1（前值49.2），时隔8个月重回扩张区间，工业 生产明显加快，需求边际改善。12月CPI同比上涨0.8%（前值0.7%），PPI同比下降 0.9%，降幅较上月收窄0.3个百分点。 中盛期货 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 企业盈利 资金面 "反内卷"政策的效果逐渐显现，新能源、有色金属、煤炭等大宗商品价格反弹，PPI 同比降幅收窄，有助于上游原材料加工利润改善。 利率 流动性 沪深两市融资余额上升至26031.43亿元，再创历史新高。央行本周共开展1387亿7天 期逆回购操作，实现净回笼16550亿元。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 中盛期货 黄金基本面数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成 ...

首席点评： 连续 14 个月增加黄金储备 截至 2025 年 12 月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33579 亿美元，环比上升 115 亿美元， 再创 2015 年 12 月以来新高；黄金储备规模为 7415 万盎司，环比增加 3 万盎司， 为连续第 14 个月增加。央行公告，1 月 8 日将开展 11000 亿元 3 个月期买断式 逆回购操作，连续第三个月等量续作。中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025 年 12 月份，全球制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，较上月微幅下降 0.1 个百分点，连续 10 个月运行在 49%-50%的区间内。美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。ADP 数据显示，美国企业 12 月私 营部门就业人数增加 4.1 万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。 重点品种：黄金、股指 贵金属：贵金属震荡整理。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行 ...

量刻三(Z0019656) 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月8日 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 欢迎关注微信公众号 广发期货EDP | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合约 | 观点 | | | | ゙慎 塑料 | NI2602 12605 | 多单减仓 震荡偏强 | | | | 铁矿石 | 12605 | 短多尝试 | | | | 豆粕 | M2605 | 農荡偏强 | | | | 白银 | AG2604 | 逢低买入 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2603 | | 节后开门红行情伴随显著放量,突破前高力量强, | | | 股指 | IH2603 | 主线结构集中,股指表现分化 | 推荐继续持有牛市价差组合,逢低可再构建备兑组 | | | | IC2603 IM2603 | | 合,做好组合风险控制,避免单边重仓追高。品种 上IC成分较为契合主线结构,表现更强。 | | | | ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/08 Assets Allocation in January: Macro Friendly, Metals Optimistic 1 月资产配置月报：宏观友好，金属乐观 | 姜 | 婧 | Jiang Jing | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F3018552 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013315 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王含章 | | Wang Hanzhang | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03121254 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0022985 | | 仲 | 鼎 | Zhong Ding | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F0 ...

首席点评： 连续14个月增加黄金储备 截至 2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，环比上升115亿美元，再创2015年12月以来新高；黄金储备规模为 7415万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第14个月增加。央行公告，1月8日将开展11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作，连 续第三个月等量续作。中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025年12月份，全球制造业PMI为49.5%，较上月微幅下降 0.1个百分点，连续10个月运行在49%-50%的区间内。美国2025年12月ISM服务业PMI指数上升1.8点至54.4，为2024年10月 以来的最高水平。ADP数据显示，美国企业12月私营部门就业人数增加4.1万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。 重点品种：黄金、股指 贵金属 ：贵金属震荡整理。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期 强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行购 金等逻辑支撑依然稳固，黄金长期上行趋势有望延续。白银和铂金兼具金融和工业属性，除受到宏观因素驱动外，还受到 供需 ...

| 日度美容 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 股指进一步放量上涨,收日内最高点,预计延续偏强走势。拉长 | 周期来看,2026年股指有望在2025年基础上继续上行:宏观政策 | | | 持续发力、通胀温和回升或有助于改善企业盈利预期;资本市场 | 改革政策的引导有望为A股带来增量资金;同时中央汇金发挥"类 | 宏观金融。必 | 平准基金"作用,也将对市场形成支撑。策略上看,建议投资者 | | | | | 仍以择机布局多头仓位为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国 债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | | 近期矿端供应扰动升温,叠加宏观情绪好转,铜价进一步走高。 | 원미 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库,产业驱动有限,但宏观情绪向好,叠 | 加铝锭供应趋紧预期提前发酵,铝价有望维持偏强运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and it's advisable to wait and see for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously holding long positions for copper, strengthening observation for aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, apple, with jujube expected to rebound from the bottom [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month hog contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts; current 02 egg contracts can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises; cautiously chasing highs for corn in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; near - month soybean meal to be treated strongly on dips and far - month weakly; three major oils' rebound is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, market news, and policy factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies such as long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and waiting and seeing. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - long term is bullish, buy on dips. After the PMI returned to expansion in December and with strong expectations of policy front - loading at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. Currently close to the previous high, pay attention to whether it breaks through or retraces [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Recent positive news such as fund fee regulations and bank EVE indicators have been quickly digested, and the current low static bond yields and high - intensity long - term bond supply do not support large - scale institutional bond purchases [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The core contradiction lies in the game between the strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is advisable to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the weekly steel export data in January [7] - **Glass**: It's advisable to wait and see. The supply - side is expected to be positive, but the demand is weak. There are still positive drivers for the price in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage. Although there is medium - long - term support on the supply side, the current price has over - reflected the positives, and there is a risk of retracement. It may maintain a high - level wide - range shock [10] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, but the fundamentals are weak. The upward pressure is large in January, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The nickel market has an overall surplus situation in the medium - long term, although there was a short - term rebound [14] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is expected to maintain a strong - side shock [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Supported by liquidity and the weakening of the US economic data, the medium - term price center of gravity moves up. For silver, hold long positions cautiously; for gold, trade in the range and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Move in a range. The supply and demand are both in a state of change, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading at a low level. The overall supply - demand is still weak, but the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances should be noted [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily wait and see. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it should be viewed cautiously and weakly. Pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the medium - long term [20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strengthening, but the inventory is increasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is mixed. The price shows a strong - side shock [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price fluctuates widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, the downstream demand is mixed, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited [26] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the current price maintains a strong - side shock [29] - **Apple**: Bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with slow trading [29] - **Jujube**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hog**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts. The supply pressure exists in the short term, and the price is expected to be under pressure before and after the Spring Festival. The long - term price increase is limited, and hedging can be carried out on rallies [32] - **Egg**: Range trading. The current 02 contract can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term supply pressure still exists [36] - **Corn**: Weakly volatile. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for the price to rise, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs. In the medium - long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [39] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The near - month 03 contract can be treated strongly on dips, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure [40] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. In the short term, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and the upward momentum is insufficient. In the medium - long term, there are still some positive points [46]

金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

首席点评： 上证指数创史上最长连阳纪录 中国人民银行部署 2026年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。据央视财经，我 国情绪消费市场规模快速攀升，从2022年1.63万亿元升至2024年2.31万亿元，2025年将达2.72万亿元，2029年将突破4.5万亿 元。昨日上证指数收涨1.5%报4083.67点，创史上最长连阳纪录。开源航班追踪数据和地面观察员的观测显示，近日有大批 美军飞机突然飞往欧洲，其中1月3日至少有10架C-17运输机从美国飞往欧洲，一名美国高级官员表示，特朗普总统及其团 队正在讨论多种获取格陵兰岛的方案。隔夜美债收益率上行，美股再创新高，夜盘大宗商品价格普遍走强。 重点品种：股指、铝、焦煤 股指 ：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续大幅上涨，有色金属板块领涨，通信板块下跌，市场成交额 2.83万亿元。 资金方面，1月5日融资余额增加192.66亿元至25434.22亿元。我们预计2026年供给侧改革持续并将推升大宗商品的价格并带 动资源型股票上涨。12月以来人民币兑美元加速升值，美国降息周期下美元走弱推动人民币升值。随着人民币升值预期逐 步建立，海外资 ...

国家主席同韩国总统举行会谈，共同见证签署科技创新、生态环境、交通运输、 经贸合作等领域 15 份合作文件。国务院总理指出要进一步完善产业生态，培育 拓展应用场景，探索有效的经营模式，推动机器人、无人机等新技术新产品在扩 大应用中加快迭代升级。委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美国强行控制后在纽约联邦法庭 首次出庭，面对美国司法部提出的四项指控，马杜罗表示"不认罪"。美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 制造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降至 47.9，已连续 10 个月低于 50，并创 下自 2024 年 10 月以来新低。美债收益率回落，美股再创新高，夜盘能源化工、 金属品种普遍走强。 重点品种：黄金、铜、原油 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 6 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 中韩举行会谈 贵金属：黄金、白银继续反弹。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通 胀压力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽 松的流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、 央行购金等逻辑支撑依然稳固，黄金长期上行趋势有望延续。白银和铂金兼具金 融和工业属性，除受到宏观因素驱动外，还受到供需 ...