Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President has signaled a cease - fire, and there are signs that the Iranian leadership may be open to ending the war through negotiation. Crude oil prices have fallen, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased significantly. Domestically, China's PMI improved significantly in March, the economy exceeded expectations, exports were much better than expected, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The short - term domestic economic situation is better than expected, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term; government bonds will be in a short - term shock; in the commodity sector, black metals may weaken in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, energy and chemical products may be strong in the short term, and precious metals may rebound in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's cease - fire signal and Iran's potential for negotiation led to a drop in crude oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, and a significant increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy and inflation in March were better than expected. The government work report set 2026 development targets and policies. The short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. [2][3] - Asset operation suggestions: short - term cautious observation for stock indices and government bonds; short - term cautious observation for black metals; short - term cautious observation for non - ferrous metals; short - term cautious long for energy and chemical products; short - term cautious long for precious metals. [2] Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and energy metals, the domestic stock market declined. However, the economic fundamentals in March were better than expected, and the short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. With the hope of an end to the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, and spot gold and silver rebounded. Precious metals are in a state of significant short - term shock and short - term rebound. Short - term cautious long is recommended. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined on Tuesday, and the market volume was low. The steel market follows energy prices, and the decline in coking coal prices has led to further weakness. The real - world demand has improved slightly, but the apparent consumption of the five major steel products still shows a downward trend year - on - year. The steel production of the five major varieties decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron production increased slightly. There is a risk of a phased correction in April. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Tuesday. The previous price increase was supported by energy prices and price negotiation news. The demand for iron ore remains resilient as molten iron production has increased, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is around 43%. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 6.71 million tons this week, while the arrival volume increased by 2.113 million tons. The problem of supply - demand mismatch is gradually being resolved. The room for further price increases is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the weakening of energy prices. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Tuesday, while the decline in the futures prices widened. The prices follow energy prices. The cost increase has led to some factory production cuts. The inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese is at a low level, and the overall production cost is supported. The futures prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - shock mindset. [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventories. After the replenishment, the inventory decline rate is expected to slow down. The copper market supply is loose, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts the inventory decline. The current inventory is still at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. [7] - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly. The domestic aluminum supply remains high. [7] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically the same as last week, at 214,000 tons, and is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in the southern region have rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting production remains at a relatively high level, and overseas smelting production will recover in 2026. The demand is not optimistic. [8][9] - **Lead**: The decline in domestic lead ingot inventory has stopped, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and the demand is in the off - season. The import volume of refined and crude lead has increased significantly. [9] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy is changeable. The core contradiction lies in the mining end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and there are risks in MHP supply. Nickel prices have support at the bottom, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad. [10] - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar has increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand in the semiconductor industry is good, but other industries are not performing well, and the overall demand is not good. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, and the LME inventory has decreased. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell significantly on Tuesday. The decline is mainly due to the rumored news of the opening of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, with both supply and demand booming, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Tuesday. The supply and demand are weak, the production capacity is excessive, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is recommended to operate within an interval, paying attention to the cost support at the bottom. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell on Tuesday. The price has returned to the cost - based pricing, and the inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iran and the US have signaled a willingness to resolve the conflict, leading to a narrowing of the risk premium and a decline in oil prices. However, the market is still worried about the impact on the global energy system. The average gasoline price in the US has exceeded $4 per gallon, posing a political risk to the Trump administration. Oil prices will remain at a high - central and high - volatility level in the short term. [14] - **Asphalt**: As oil prices decline, asphalt is likely to follow. There are short - term supply problems, and seasonal demand will increase, driving inventory depletion. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is limited, and the new contract price is expected to rise significantly after April, supporting the market bottom. The absolute price will continue to fluctuate significantly with crude oil. [14] - **PX**: The shortage of naphtha continues, and overseas PX prices remain strong. With the increase in domestic PX plant maintenance plans, the PX price is expected to remain strong, but the upside may be limited by the increase in PTA plant maintenance plans. [15] - **PTA**: In the peak season, terminal orders and开工 are lower than in previous years, and the negative feedback continues. The PTA cost is still supported, but the downstream filament production reduction has increased. The PTA basis has rebounded slightly, and the negative feedback restricts the price increase. PTA is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Driven by export expectations, ethylene glycol prices rose, but after the decline in oil prices, inventory pressure was reflected in the futures price. Overseas supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the price will remain high - volatile. Attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback. [15] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the high - volatility of crude oil prices and negative feedback in the polyester sector, short - fiber prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, following PTA and other varieties. [16][17] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is strong, and the port basis is strengthening. Affected by the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the energy and chemical futures market has declined. However, due to the obstruction of Iranian exports and unstable Middle East plants, the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The domestic demand is warming up in the peak season, and the spot is in short supply. The market is strong, but the volatility has increased significantly. [17] - **PP**: The market price has declined. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the downstream demand is increasing, providing support for the price. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the situation of the cease - fire talks. [18] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory is depleting rapidly. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but there is inventory pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are the key variables for external supply. [18] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Affected by external positive factors, the futures market has strengthened, boosting the spot market sentiment. However, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still in place, and the industrial demand is supporting the market. The export is tightening, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT July soybean contract closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is 2.104803 billion bushels, higher than the analyst's estimate. [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans for domestic oil mills in April are balanced, and the inventory is loose. The basis is under seasonal pressure. The far - month oil mill crushing profit supports more purchases of soybeans, and the future supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. For rapeseed meal, as the import of rapeseed increases in the far - month, the supply concern fades, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal widens. It will follow the soybean meal's shock adjustment. [20] - **Oils**: The overnight BMD palm oil closed higher. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment. The decline in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran cease - fire intention has put pressure on the vegetable oil premium. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil spot basis is stable, and the demand is weak. Palm oil exports from Malaysia are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Palm oil will maintain a high - level shock. [21] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, but the market atmosphere is not high. Traders are more willing to sell, and the inventory of downstream deep - processing enterprises is accumulating. The feed enterprises are using more imported and policy - auctioned grains, and the acceptance of high - price corn is decreasing. The unconfirmed news of brown rice auction in early April may limit the corn price. [21] - **Pigs**: The average weight of pigs is increasing, and small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, while large - scale farms are increasing the supply with a slight weight reduction. The short - term breeding profit is in a loss, and the policy is guiding weight reduction and production reduction. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - month contract, while the long - term contract has stronger support. [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities and Iran planning to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar index, and higher US Treasury yields, which initially dampened global risk appetite but later recovered after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals. Domestically, the economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is mainly focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the domestic stock index market is oscillating weakly in the short term [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are oscillating weakly in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, oil prices are increasing, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strengthening, initially suppressing global risk appetite. After Powell's dovish signals, the US Treasury sell - off eased, yields declined, and risk appetite recovered [2]. - **Domestic situation**: In January - February 2026, the economy and inflation exceeded expectations, with strong exports and rising inflation. The policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The stock index market is oscillating weakly due to concerns about the Middle East situation [2][3]. - **Asset trends**: Stocks are oscillating weakly and volatile in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market rebounded due to the performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products. The economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the stock index market is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. With rising oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, spot gold was under pressure. It first reached the $4580 mark and then fell back, with a final increase of 0.35% to $4510.97 per ounce. Spot silver also rose and then fell, closing up 0.48% at $70.047 per ounce. Precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. Due to the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns increased. The real - world demand improved marginally, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and inventory decline accelerating. Supply decreased slightly, and iron - water production increased slightly. The steel market will follow cost trends in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Rising oil prices supported the iron ore price. Iron - water production increased to over 230 tons, and the proportion of profitable steel mills was around 43%, indicating strong demand. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 6.71 million tons week - on - week, while arrivals increased by 2.113 million tons. The price increase space is limited, and there is a risk of adjustment if energy prices weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. Rising energy prices supported the alloy prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6220 - 6320 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6300 - 6350 yuan/ton. Rising costs led some factories to reduce production. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is at a low level, and the production cost is supported. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be oscillating strongly [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, leading to a large decrease in social inventory. However, the inventory reduction may slow down after the replenishment. The copper market supply is abundant, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts inventory reduction. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, with a tight but not extremely short supply [8]. - **Aluminum**: An attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. However, the company plans to resume operations soon. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is high, and the reduction is slow due to high supply [8]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically stable, at 21.4 million tons, slightly lower than in 2022. The zinc ore processing fee in the south has rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the production is at a relatively high level. The demand is not optimistic [9][10]. - **Lead**: The domestic lead ingot inventory increased from 57,600 tons to 60,100 tons, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead is increasing seasonally. The demand peak has passed, and the import volume in the first two months increased significantly [10]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy on nickel is uncertain. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and MHP supply may decline. Nickel prices have support at the bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [11]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diverse. The demand is mixed, with semiconductor sales growing but other industries performing poorly. Tin prices rebounded due to increased risk appetite and inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the volatile market sentiment [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 4.53% on Monday. The supply and demand are both strong, the social inventory is low, and the smelting plant inventory is continuously low. With low inventory and supply disruptions, the upward potential is large. It is recommended to buy at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell 2.01% on Monday. The supply and demand are weak, the capacity is surplus, and the inventory is high. It is priced close to cost and follows the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to operate within a range [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% on Monday. The price is at the full - cost range, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US threat to Iran led to the US oil price reaching over $100 for the first time after the war. The conflict is unlikely to end soon, and the short - term oil price will continue to be strong [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded with the rising oil price. The supply problem persists, and the seasonal demand will increase, leading to inventory reduction. The short - term price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [15]. - **PX**: The PX price is strong due to the reduction of Japanese and Korean device operations and increased domestic maintenance plans. However, the price increase may be limited by the increased PTA maintenance plans [16]. - **PTA**: The terminal production and sales are low, but PTA prices rose with the decline of the reforming device. The negative feedback from the downstream restricts the price increase, but the overall trend is still upward [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease due to raw material problems. The price is rising, but attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price is oscillating strongly, following the PTA and other varieties. The raw material price is high, but the recovery is restricted by the downstream production reduction [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The domestic and port methanol markets are strong. International supply has tightened due to device shutdowns, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price is rising but with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and downstream negative feedback [18]. - **PP**: The PP market price has increased due to supply reduction and demand increase. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price is adjusting. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, leading to inventory reduction. The price is expected to be strong, but there is pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are important [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The policy and demand are in a game, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and attention should be paid to the planting intention report and quarterly grain inventory report. Analysts expect the 2026 sowing area to increase [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased seasonally, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased. The basis is high, and the short - term supply is tight, but the future supply is expected to be loose. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and it will oscillate with soybean meal [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT soybean oil price rose. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the oil price is affected by the rising crude oil price. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD palm oil price rose. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy boosted the market. The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in March, and the export increased significantly. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased [23]. - **Corn**: The corn price shows regional differentiation. The inventory in the northern ports increased, and the price in the northeast is weak. The downstream demand is affected by alternative sources, and the price may be restricted by the possible rice auction [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig weight is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term profit is in deficit, and the policy encourages production reduction. The short - term spot price may weaken, while the long - term outlook is improving. There is risk in the short - term futures market [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Pulp [1] - **Neutral**: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Diesel, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Methanol, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping on the Europe route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The external shocks on the stock index remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity due to changes in the US attitude and the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the long - term, the stock index is still optimistic. [1] - Treasury bonds are affected by multiple factors and will oscillate. [1] - Metal prices are affected by the complex situation in the Middle East, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper and aluminum prices oscillate, while zinc is bearish, and nickel and stainless steel are high - level oscillating. [1] - The prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium oscillate due to the shift of market trading narrative and the uncertain situation in the Middle East. [1] - The prices of industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical factors. [1] - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, consumption, and policies. For example, cotton prices are expected to rise in the long - term, while sugar prices have limited fluctuations. [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with some products facing supply shortages and price fluctuations. [1] - The container shipping on the Europe route is affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock index**: External shocks remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. In the long - term, it is still optimistic. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintains an oscillating trend due to the complex situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations intensify, and there are low - buying opportunities. [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the oversupply pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: Bearish due to weak fundamentals, and the reversal depends on European natural gas prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level, affected by policies and macro - emotions. Short - term low - buying is recommended. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillates, and short - term low - buying opportunities should be focused on. [1] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to potential production impacts. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Prices may oscillate in the short - term due to the upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and the inventory is being reduced. [1] - **Polycrystalline silicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Affected by factors such as demand and raw material disturbances. [1] Industrial products - **Rebar**: The price is mainly supported by cost, and it is treated as an oscillating market. [1] - **Hot rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it is in the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to operate with an oscillating idea and consider positive arbitrage. [1] - **Iron ore**: The price oscillates at a high level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. [1] - **Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Bullish due to short - term supply - demand growth and cost support. [1] - **Glass and Soda ash**: Oscillate, and soda ash follows the trend of glass. [1] - **Coking coal**: There is a risk of a sharp rise and fall, and attention should be paid to the development of the war. [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The far - month prices are expected to rise due to high oil prices and increased quotas. [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the inventory is tightening, and domestic prices are expected to rise in the long - term. [1] - **Sugar**: The supply is abundant, and the price has limited fluctuations. [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, but the decline range is limited. [1] - **Soybeans**: It is recommended to wait for the callback to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts. [1] - **Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. [1] - **Logs**: Bullish due to the rise in the external market price. [1] Energy and chemical products - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Prices are affected by the Middle East situation, with supply concerns and negotiation information disturbances. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively weak, and it is affected by the price of crude oil. [1] - **BR rubber**: The price has an upward space, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. [1] - **PTA**: The Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price rises due to raw material shortages. [1] - **Short fiber**: The price fluctuates with the cost. [1] - **Methanol**: The export is affected, but the domestic supply is abundant. [1] - **PP, PVC, Caustic soda**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and supply - demand fundamentals. [1] - **LPG**: The price is affected by multiple factors, with internal and external market differentiation. [1] Others - **Container shipping on the Europe route**: Affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies, with a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season. [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is worried about the escalation of the tense situation between the US and Iran, leading to a continued decline in global risk appetite. In the short term, the domestic stock index oscillates weakly with increased volatility, and the domestic stock index market cools down again. - The overall economic and inflation situation in China from January to February is better than expected, but the overall goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than those in 2025. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks oscillate weakly in the short term; bonds oscillate in the short term; black commodities oscillate weakly; non - ferrous metals oscillate weakly; energy and chemical products oscillate strongly; precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Iran claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, and other energy supply interruption news has hit risk sentiment. International oil prices have risen unilaterally, and the US dollar index and US bond yields have increased. - Domestic: The Chinese economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report sets the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stocks oscillate weakly and with increased volatility in the short term; bonds oscillate in the short term; black commodities oscillate weakly; non - ferrous metals oscillate weakly; energy and chemical products oscillate strongly; precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market rebounded. - The economic and inflation situation from January to February is better than expected, but the overall goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. - The market trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index oscillates weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1009.44 yuan/gram, up 1.73%; the Shanghai silver main contract closed at 17763 yuan/kg, up 3.12%. - Spot gold rose significantly in the US session, breaking through the $4550 mark, and finally closed up 2.58% at $4492.99/ounce; spot silver closed up 2.55% at $69.78/ounce. - Precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to oscillate on Friday, and the trading volume was low. The escalation of the Middle - East situation over the weekend may further increase steel costs. The real demand has improved marginally, and the inventory decline has continued to expand. The apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased slightly this week, but the hot - metal output has increased slightly. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore dropped significantly on Friday, and the futures price oscillated at a high level, mainly affected by rumors of iron - ore negotiation setbacks. The demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the supply and demand misalignment problem is gradually being alleviated. The room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the risk of phased adjustment after the energy price weakens [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, and the futures trends were divergent, with silicon manganese showing a stronger trend. The rebound in oil prices supports the alloy prices. The silicon - manganese market has stable supply, and the profit margin is acceptable. The silicon - iron market is waiting for the entry situation in April. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with an oscillating - strong mindset [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories at low prices, resulting in a significant decrease in social copper inventories. The supply of the copper market remains loose, and the downstream terminal demand is affected by the overdraft effect of last year. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, and the probability of extreme shortage is not high [9]. - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE Global Aluminum Company may affect electrolytic - aluminum production in the short term, providing some support for the aluminum price. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly due to high domestic supply [9]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc - ingot inventory continued to decline last week but is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc - ore processing fees in the south have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The overseas smelting output will increase in 2026. The demand is not optimistic [10][11]. - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead in the first two months increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy is unstable. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is limited by high inventories at home and abroad [12]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar have increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is mixed, with the semiconductor industry performing well but other industries underperforming. The tin price has rebounded due to the return of risk appetite and inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to the emotional fluctuations caused by the repeated Middle - East situation [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory of smelters remains low. There is still no progress in the negotiation of the Zimbabwean export ban, and the lithium carbonate price has a large upward potential. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has decreased slightly, and the social inventory is at a high level and stable. The supply and demand are weak, and the production capacity is in surplus. The price is close to the cost, and it is expected to oscillate strongly due to the increase in coking - coal prices [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have continued to decline, and the inventory has increased slightly. The medium - and long - term policy is negative for the market, and the price is close to the full - cost range. Attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation after April. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [16]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US preparation for landing operations has kept the market's expectation of the Strait's safety low. The attack on the Russian terminal has restricted oil exports, and the oil price has exceeded $100. The oil price will remain strong in the short term [17]. - **Asphalt**: The oil - price support continues, the refinery production schedule in April is expected to decline significantly, and the seasonal demand will increase. The total inventory will be depleted, and the short - term price will follow the oil price and fluctuate significantly [17]. - **PX**: The price of naphtha is strong, and the PX price has rebounded. The PX will remain strong in the short term due to the decrease in upstream reforming operations and the increase in overseas demand for aromatic materials [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased following the decline of the reforming device, but the increase is limited by the negative feedback from the downstream. The core logic lies in the aromatic raw materials, and the PTA is likely to be strong [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease significantly, and the price has remained strong. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the terminal [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The increase in the oil price has driven the polyester sector to strengthen. The finished - product inventory is low, and the production and sales have declined. The short - fiber will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. - **Methanol**: The import reduction due to the geopolitical conflict has led to a reduction in port inventory and an increase in inland demand. The methanol market has support, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback [19]. - **PP**: The upstream supply has decreased, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market is tight, and the price is expected to remain strong. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream supply has continued to decrease, and the demand has been supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory has been depleted rapidly, and the polyethylene is expected to continue to operate strongly. Geopolitical factors are the key variables [19]. - **Urea**: The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to put pressure on the market, but the industrial demand provides support. The price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the policy benefits are exhausted. The uncertainty of Sino - US soybean trade has increased. The increase in the CBOT soybean price is limited by profit - taking [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills has decreased seasonally, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. The basis remains high. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate with the soybean meal [21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The crude - oil price is the main driving factor for international oils and fats. The vegetable - oil price has the potential to rise, but it is restricted by recession expectations and the expected high - yield. The domestic soybean - oil inventory is being depleted, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may rebound. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will fluctuate with soybean oil and palm oil [22]. - **Corn**: The bargaining power of the trading end has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [23]. - **Hogs**: The weight of hogs in stock is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - term contracts and support in the far - term contracts [23].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to hold short positions moderately at high prices; aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation; nickel is suggested to wait and see; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][19][20][22][23][25] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; rubber is recommended to be long on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading; soda ash is advised to short at high prices [1][26][28][29][31][32][34][35][37] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; apples and red dates are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][41] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; for eggs, be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; soybean meal contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950; for oils and fats, reduce long positions gradually [1][43][45][46][47][48] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, causing price fluctuations in various assets [5][15][17][22][23] - Different industries and commodities have different supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by changes in demand or cost factors [9][15][25][34] - Investors should pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical events, macroeconomic data, and industry - specific policies when making investment decisions [27][35][46] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Iran - US situation, it may trade sideways in the short term but is bullish in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end has limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair. Overall, it is expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is rising, and inventory is accumulating. It is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: The price is at a low static valuation, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [10] - **Glass**: The cost hype has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, it is under pressure at high levels. Although there is support from domestic consumption, it still has downward risks. Short positions can be held moderately at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by the situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to buy [17] - **Nickel**: The supply and demand are complex, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. It is suggested to wait and see [19] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to trade in a range [20][21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to wait and see [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to trade in a range [25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but there is support from exports. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [26][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export and downstream replenishment, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Be cautious about chasing up [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [31] - **Rubber**: Affected by cost and inventory, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [32] - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is supported by agriculture. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [34] - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to be bullish with range trading [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure. Short at high prices [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is strong. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [39] - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is expected to trade sideways [40] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price is stable, and the market is expected to trade sideways [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. Contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [43][44] - **Eggs**: The price is rising steadily, but be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts [45] - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range [46] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by multiple factors, contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: The price is at a high level and is expected to trade sideways. Reduce long positions gradually [48][49][50][51][52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the Iran - US conflict, has significantly affected global risk preferences. It has led to inflation concerns, changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations, and fluctuations in various financial and commodity markets [2][4]. - Different industries are affected differently by the conflict. Energy - related industries are generally strong, while sectors related to liquidity and global macroeconomics, such as precious metals and non - ferrous metals, are under pressure. The black sector may face relatively lower pressure due to the retreat of funds from the long - non - ferrous and short - black strategy [36][43]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: Tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on US - related military and industrial enterprises and an aluminum company, and corporate cooperation news. 150 securities companies had significant year - on - year growth in revenue and net profit in 2025 [2]. - **Strategy**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. Inflation concerns lead to changes in Fed's interest - rate expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes. Industrial enterprise profits increased in January - February. There are expectations of a Fed rate hike. The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy**: Economic data improved at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability of economic recovery is uncertain. Inflation pressure may put the bond market under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [6][7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends. There are political events in the US and the Middle East, and the energy market is under threat [8]. - **Strategy**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus. Inflation expectations are sticky, and the short - term trend of precious metals is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated due to the Middle - East situation. LME and domestic inventories had different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The Middle - East situation suppresses copper prices, but inventory reduction and raw material supply changes may support prices. Copper prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose due to energy cost increases. Inventory and basis had changes [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are supported by energy costs and supply disruptions but are also affected by sentiment. It is expected to rise in the short term [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Inventory and basis data changed. Downstream enterprises replenished stocks after price declines [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may stop falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchasing sustainability is limited. Zinc prices are in a downward trend and may continue to decline after consolidation [15]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. Inventory and basis data changed. Social inventory decreased [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot market is supported in the short term, but the high Shanghai - London ratio may lead to more imports. There is a possibility of further price decline [17]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Spot premiums and raw material prices were stable [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, nickel prices may weaken, but in the medium term, there is strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range [19]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends, and inventory decreased [20]. - **Strategy**: Supply is still constrained, and demand is in a weak recovery. Tin prices are expected to be weak, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. There were changes in inventory and raw material prices [22]. - **Strategy**: The market contradiction is in the resource end. The supply may be under pressure in the long term, and demand is expected to be strong. Pay attention to market changes, with a reference price range [23]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and raw material prices [24]. - **Strategy**: The ore price is expected to rise, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range [25]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. Inventory increased, and raw material prices were stable [26]. - **Strategy**: Supply is stable, and terminal consumption is slightly better than expected. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, with a reference price range [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Cost and demand are expected to improve, and prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner [29]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Steel prices were slightly lower. Inventory and trading volume changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate demand support is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to demand release and raw material price changes [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Inventory and basis data changed [32]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and risk control is needed [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices fell slightly. There were changes in spot and futures prices and basis [34]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals do not support a significant price rebound. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see, and be optimistic about coking coal prices in the medium - long term [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [38][40]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to be in a narrow - range shock. Soda ash is in a game between supply and demand, with reference price ranges [39][40]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. There were changes in spot and futures prices and basis [41]. - **Strategy**: The black sector may be supported. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. Pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [43][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [45][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a shock state. Polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The butadiene market is strong, and natural rubber has different views from bulls and bears. There are changes in tire enterprise operating rates and inventory [50][51]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade short - term, take profit on butadiene rubber call options, and hold the hedging position [52]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices rose [53]. - **Strategy**: Configure short - position strategies for crude oil, do long - short spreads for different oil types, and short - sell high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads and INE - Brent spreads [54]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose, and MTO profits changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and widen MTO profits at low prices [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices had slight changes, and the basis was reported [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell urea. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: There were changes in prices, basis, and inventory of pure benzene and styrene [59]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and it is recommended to wait and see [60]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. There were changes in cost, inventory, and operating rates [61]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rise, but pay attention to risks [62]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. There were changes in supply, demand, and inventory [63]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks after a large increase [65]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. There were changes in load, inventory, and processing fees [66]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and pay attention to risks after a large increase [67]. - **Para - Xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. There were changes in load, inventory, and valuation [68]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks after a large increase [69]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. There were changes in inventory and operating rates [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz increases [71]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. There were changes in inventory and operating rates [72]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production and demand mismatches [73]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices had different trends in different regions. Some areas had price increases, and some had decreases [75]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side improvement is limited. Consider short - selling on rebounds, and pay attention to profit - taking when the position is large [76]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices had different trends in different regions. Some areas had price increases, and some had decreases [77]. - **Strategy**: The supply is sufficient, but small - sized eggs are in short supply. Short - sell on rebounds for the near - term and hold short positions for the far - term [78]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: There are news about Trump's visit to China, soybean export data, and production forecasts [79]. - **Strategy**: The price fluctuation is large, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [80]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: There are policies and data related to biofuels, palm oil production, and inventory [81]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to rise in the medium - term due to the Iran - US event [82]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: There are forecasts of sugar production and export in different countries, and import data in China [83]. - **Strategy**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see [84]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: There are news about Trump's visit to China, cotton import data, and production forecasts [85]. - **Strategy**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term, but pay attention to the risk of a global financial crisis [86].

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].