2025年11月11日，备受全球金融界瞩目的Wiki Finance EXPO Dubai 2025在迪拜千禧广场市中心酒店盛 大开幕。本次博览会由WikiGlobal与WikiEXPO联合主办，汇聚了来自全球的3000余名行业参与者、超 过70家展商及50多位顶尖行业专家，共同探讨金融科技、外汇、加密货币、Web3.0、人工智能及金融 监管科技等前沿议题。在这场高规格的国际金融盛事中，金牌分析师与资深培训专家王锡环女士作为特 邀嘉宾出席，其深厚的行业积淀与独到的投资见解成为会场关注的焦点之一。 履历跨越东西半球，实战经验淬炼真知 技术分析与双轨策略并重，倡导稳健增值理念 在本次博览会关于金融科技与交易策略的讨论中，王锡环女士的核心方法论得到了充分展现。她是一位 坚定的技术分析实战派，善于将深厚的理论学识与丰富的市场经验相融合，构建了一套专注于外汇、股 票及黄金市场的技术交易体系。 其投资理念的一大亮点在于"双轨交易策略"的娴熟运用。她同时精通短线高频交易与中长期趋势交易， 这种灵活性使其能够游刃有余地应对不同级别的市场波动，捕捉多元化的盈利机会。无论是瞬息万变的 市场短线机会，还是宏观趋势下的中长期布局，她 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC is restructuring its trading division to become a major player in debt financing, driven by CEO Georges Elhedery [1][2] Group 1: Restructuring Details - The G10 currency rates trading department will merge with the foreign exchange, emerging markets rates, and commodities departments to form a new global macro department [1] - Derivatives clearing services will be integrated into the global equities team [1] - All remaining debt market operations, including high-yield and investment-grade bond trading, will fall under a unified "Global Credit and Financing" framework [1] Group 2: Leadership and Management Changes - The new global macro team will be led by Volkan Benihasim, while Franck Lacour will continue to oversee the equities business [2] - A brief internal selection process will be conducted for the new head of Global Credit and Financing, currently led by Antoine Maurel and Monish Tahilramani [2] - Global debt markets head Mehmet Mazi will explore other opportunities as part of the changes [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals - HSBC aims to leverage its large balance sheet to gain more business in trading and markets [2] - The initiatives reflect HSBC's ambition to become a "financing giant," with a focus on prudent technology investments aligned with its leadership goals in financing and trading banking [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported gross revenues of BRL 4.9 billion, representing a 9% growth year over year and a 6% growth quarter over quarter [19] - Net income reached BRL 1.3 billion, a 12% growth year over year and a 1% increase quarter over quarter [23] - The return on equity (ROE) was 23%, flat year over year, while the capital ratio stood at 21.2%, an increase of 180 basis points quarter over quarter [7][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail revenues reached BRL 3.7 billion, representing 6% growth year over year and 4% growth quarter over quarter [19] - Corporate and industry services achieved a record performance of BRL 729 million, with 32% growth year over year and 33% growth quarter over quarter [21] - Life insurance retail premium posted a 25% growth year over year, while retirement plans client assets grew 15% year over year, reaching BRL 90 billion [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported BRL 20 billion in retail net new money and BRL 9 billion in corporate and institutional, totaling BRL 5 billion lower than last year but three times higher than last quarter [8] - The company maintained a 10% market share in capital markets distribution, with a robust pipeline of fixed income offerings [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the leader in investments in Brazil by enhancing client service and introducing new products, including a new app and credit card offerings [3][10] - The strategy includes democratizing access to high-quality wealth planning services, previously reserved for high-net-worth clients [10][12] - The company is focused on improving its investment platform and enhancing client experience through advisor initiatives [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in 2025 but emphasized commitment to evolving the business for growth and profitability [4] - The outlook for the wholesale banking segment remains positive, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 [31] - Management indicated that while achieving the 10% revenue growth target for 2025 may be challenging, they remain optimistic about future growth [82] Other Important Information - The company repurchased BRL 2 billion in shares in 2025, with a new BRL 1 billion buyback program announced [24] - The company plans to pay a dividend of BRL 500 million in 2025, representing a 50% payout ratio based on net income [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for wholesale business performance in Q4 - Management expects good performance in the wholesale banking segment for Q4, with a strong second half of the year compared to the first half [31][33] Question: Details on the strategy to increase the warehousing book - The strategy involves holding high-quality assets and increasing the warehouse book to sell to retail clients in the following year [33] Question: Clarification on corporate revenues and hedging strategy - Corporate revenues are tied to DCM activity, with hedging solutions being a significant driver [39] Question: Insights on fixed income revenue contraction despite AUC growth - The contraction in fixed income revenues is attributed to a shift in the mix towards lower take rates and shorter durations [46] Question: Impact of new hires on advisor numbers - The decrease in the number of advisors is due to the conversion of IFAs into employees and a focus on hiring higher-quality advisors [52] Question: Explanation for the reduction in financial expenses - The reduction in financial expenses is linked to a geographic shift in debt management, with cheaper bank debt replacing corporate debt [54] Question: Future guidance on EBIT margin - Management believes achieving the EBIT margin guidance is still possible, but it may take until the end of next year to realize [62]

近期，市场对美联储降息的预期出现显著逆转。据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已跌破 50%，降至44.4%，而维持当前利率不变的概率则升至55.6%。展望至明年1月，市场预计累计降息25个基点的概率为48.6%，维 持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为16.7%。这一变化显示，交易员正在重新评估美联储的货币政策路 径。 关联市场：金价短期承压于强势美元与高利率预期 美联储降息预期的推迟，对国际金价形成了明显的短期压力。较高的利率环境通常将提振美元并增加持有黄金等非生息资产的 机会成本，令金价承压。近期，国际金价在美元走强的利率预期下震荡偏弱。市场分析认为，除非后续经济数据显著恶化，再 次点燃市场的避险与降息预期，否则金价短期内恐难摆脱当前的高利率压制格局。 百利好（Plotio）是一家专注于为全球投资者提供在线交易服务的品牌。百利好注册于巴哈马，受巴哈马证券委员会（SCB）监 管（编号：SIA-F212），持有香港黄金交易所AA牌照 ，是一家正规的交易平台。 有分析指出，这些言论集中反映了美联储内部对美国通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的担忧，这为年底再次降息的 ...

Asset Allocation - The investment research framework has evolved from the traditional Merrill Lynch clock to a Chinese-style monetary credit model, reflecting significant changes in China's economic development model and the diminishing role of investment in driving economic growth [12] - In the new era, liquidity is identified as a core factor influencing asset prices, with the monetary cycle remaining highly relevant. Additionally, international factors, exemplified by US-China relations, significantly impact export engines and cross-border capital flows, becoming crucial for capturing asset price changes [12] Historical Review of Stock and Bond Performance - The report reviews stock and bond performance since 2018, highlighting that in 2018, macroeconomic fundamentals were weak, leading to significant stock market declines while bonds provided good coupon returns. In 2019, equity markets experienced volatility, and bonds continued to offer protection [18] - The analysis indicates that from 2020 to 2025, equity markets have shown resilience driven by technology stocks and structural bull markets, while bonds have entered a bull market phase characterized by declining yields [18] Long-term Bond Market Trends - Historical data shows that each bond bull market corresponds with a downward trend in 10-year government bond yields, driven by the interplay of "debt bulls" and "asset scarcity" [20] - The current bond bull market has seen 10-year government bond yields reach new lows, indicating a significant shift in the bond market landscape [21] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is believed to be in a long-term upward trend, with the current phase identified as the third wave of a five-wave cycle. This phase is expected to last longer than previous cycles, indicating a gradual upward movement [25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's experience, noting that after the economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the Japanese stock market entered a long-term upward channel, supported by structural reforms and monetary easing [29] Core Investment Themes - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable US-China relations and a supportive global monetary environment. It suggests that technology stocks will lead the market in the next 5-10 years [36] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile environment, with a focus on coupon strategies as interest rates are projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2.0% [36]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in gold investment, highlighting the continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China and the implications of the U.S. government shutdown on economic forecasts [3]. Market Analysis - The world's largest gold ETF held 1,042.06 tons of gold as of November 7, with an increase of 1.71 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 2.86 tons for the month [2]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with October showing continued growth [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 38 days, affecting federal employee salaries and leading to concerns about a potential slowdown in GDP growth for Q4 [3]. - Wall Street analysts warn that the combination of three years of quantitative tightening and significant government debt issuance is pushing bank reserves into a precarious situation [3]. Economic Indicators - A New York Fed survey indicates that 71% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next year, double the rate from the previous year [3]. - Short-term inflation expectations have decreased, while consumer confidence in the U.S. is nearing record lows, contributing to a weaker dollar and increased expectations for interest rate cuts [3]. - The price of spot gold in Hong Kong rose to $3,999.68 per ounce amid these economic conditions [3]. Technical Analysis - For short-term trading, the support level for gold is around $3,985.00, with bullish targets set at $4,020.00 and $4,028.00 if the price remains above this level [4]. - Alternative strategies suggest a bearish outlook if the price falls below $3,985.00, targeting $3,964.00 and $3,948.00 [5]. - The RSI technical indicator is currently near the neutral zone, indicating potential for further price movement [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China's gold reserves have increased for the 12th consecutive month, reaching 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2304.457 tons) as of the end of October, with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) [1] Group 2 - As of October, China's foreign currency reserves stood at approximately 32090.36 million USD, showing a slight increase from the previous month [2] - The IMF reserve position for China was reported at 100.48 million USD, indicating stability in the reserve position [2] - Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) amounted to 527.12 million USD, reflecting a consistent level of SDR holdings [2] - The value of gold reserves has seen a significant increase, with the latest figure at 2065.34 million USD, marking a notable rise compared to previous months [2] - Other reserve assets showed a negative balance of -3.23 million USD, indicating some challenges in this area [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the unique advantages and investment opportunities in the Chinese capital market amidst global economic and financial market volatility, highlighting the long-term strategic confidence from major asset management firms like Amundi [1]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in China - Amundi identifies three key dimensions for investment opportunities in China: ongoing institutional openness, the role of Hong Kong as a bridge, and the potential of the pension market [1]. - The focus on technology sectors such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence is seen as particularly attractive for investment due to their growth prospects and valuation [4][5]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article discusses the need for diversified asset allocation in the current high volatility environment, suggesting that investors should consider a mix of bonds, foreign exchange, and equities based on market attractiveness [3][5]. - A structural approach to asset allocation is recommended, with a focus on mid-term holding periods of three months or longer, allowing for flexibility in timing and entry points [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The article notes the impact of global supply chain restructuring and changing tariff policies, which create investment opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in Asia [9]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are discussed, with predictions of two cuts next year, which could influence global asset allocation strategies [7]. Group 4: Gold as an Investment - Gold is highlighted as a key asset class due to its ability to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, with expectations of its price reaching $5,000 per ounce within three years [11]. - The increasing demand for gold from central banks and retail investors is noted as a significant factor influencing its market dynamics [11]. Group 5: Long-term Economic Themes - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality development, climate change, and technological innovation as critical investment themes for the future [6]. - The concept of a "longevity economy" is introduced as a theme with substantial investment opportunities, extending beyond pharmaceuticals to infrastructure [12].

Group 1 - The global largest gold ETF held 1,038.63 tons as of November 4, with a reduction of 3.15 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating a tariff case, with conservative Chief Justice questioning its reasonableness, leading to a decreased probability of a Trump victory [2] - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 36 days, impacting the stock market, airline industry, and food assistance programs, but Trump still anticipates new highs in the stock market [2] Group 2 - Economic data shows that U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but labor demand is slowing and wage growth is stagnant [2] - The service sector activity in October expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, surpassing economists' predictions [2] - The U.S. Treasury maintained its quarterly refinancing scale but hinted at potential increases in the future, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a bearish crossover in the KD indicator [4] - The strategy for gold trading today suggests buying on dips between 3,965.9 and 3,971.9, with a stop loss at 3,960.9 and a target range of 3,975.9 to 3,981.9 [4] - Silver prices are also below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a similar bearish crossover in the KD indicator, recommending selling on highs between 48.21 and 48.71 [4]

Group 1 - Axi continues its partnership with Manchester City star John Stones, who has been the global brand ambassador since the start of the 2023/24 season [1] - The renewal of the partnership reflects Axi's commitment to excellence and its alignment with John Stones' values of victory and relentless pursuit of greatness [1] - Axi has solidified its position in sports sponsorship by renewing its collaboration with John Stones and partnering with three top football clubs, including Manchester City and Esporte Clube Bahia [1] Group 2 - Axi is a global online forex and CFD trading company with thousands of clients across over 100 countries [2] - The company offers a variety of asset classes for CFD trading, including forex, stocks, gold, oil, and coffee [2]