鲍威尔终于服软了，美联储9月份降息大局已定，全球资产的价格即将迎来重塑，不管是对美债黄金外汇，还是对中国的楼市股市存款，都将影响巨大。 我们即将进入一个全球低利率时代，而不仅仅只是中国的低利率，这将影响我们每一个人的钱袋子。 就在8月23日全球央行行长年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔的立场发生了重大转变，鲍威尔发表讲话，称尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业市场的风险正在上升，美联 储可能在9月份降息。 受此消息影响，美股3大指数集体大涨，黄金大涨，全球资本市场仿佛被打了一剂兴奋剂。 可鲍威尔明明说的是可能，市场为啥会这么兴奋呢？ 我们得对比他原来是怎么说的。 为了降低美债的利息支出，缓解美国财政压力，特朗普这半年，几乎天天都在骂鲍威尔，还威胁要去美联储查账，说美联储大楼在翻新时存在腐败问题。 特朗普这样天天搞事情，你说鲍威尔一点都不害怕，我是不信的。 其二，鲍威尔态度松动的根源，是因为美国的就业数据突然暴雷，美国劳工部8月初公布的非农数据，惊掉了全世界人的下巴。 7月份非农就业只增加了7.3万人，远低于预期的11万，更要命的是，5月份的非农数据，从原本的14.4万下修到了1.9万人，6月份从14.7万下修到了1.4万人。 这哪 ...

Core Insights - CWG Forex is enhancing its global strategy to capture diverse investment opportunities and improve wealth growth for investors [1][2] Group 1: Global Market Coverage and Strategic Expansion - The expansion of global market coverage is crucial for enhancing international competitiveness and brand influence [2] - CWG Forex strategically enters emerging markets to leverage local growth potential and expand business impact [2] - The company establishes offices in multiple regions to better serve a diverse customer base [2] Group 2: Diversified Investment Platform and Technological Innovation - A diversified investment platform is key to meeting the needs of different investors, offering various financial instruments and innovative technologies [4] - CWG Forex provides a wide range of trading products, including forex, CFDs, commodities, and indices, to enhance investor choice [4] - Continuous optimization of the trading platform ensures investors receive the best user experience and investment outcomes [4][6] Group 3: Localization and Compliance - The advantage of localized services lies in providing tailored financial solutions based on regional cultures and market demands [4] - CWG Forex collaborates closely with local regulatory bodies to ensure compliance and transparency, enhancing market credibility [4] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - CWG Forex employs diversified risk management strategies to protect investor capital in volatile markets [10] - The company utilizes advanced technology platforms to monitor market dynamics and swiftly identify potential risks [10] - Regular stress testing is conducted to assess the robustness of investment portfolios under various economic scenarios [10] Group 5: International Partnerships and Technological Advancements - Strong relationships with international partners enable CWG Forex to effectively respond to global market changes and offer competitive trading conditions [5] - Collaborations with leading financial institutions and technology providers enhance the trading platform's technological advancements and market insights [5] Group 6: User Experience and Interface Innovation - Innovations in user interface play a crucial role in enhancing user trading experience, allowing investors to analyze markets more intuitively and efficiently [7] - Personalized dashboards and real-time market information simplify the decision-making process for investors [7] Group 7: Educational Resources for Investors - CWG Forex provides comprehensive educational resources for novice investors, including online courses and market analysis reports [14] - The company offers a professional customer support team to assist investors with inquiries and guidance [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Client assets, AUM, and AUA reached BRL 1,900 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year growth [2] - Gross revenues for the quarter were BRL 4.7 billion, marking a 4% year-over-year increase [3] - EBT decreased by 5% year-over-year to BRL 1.3 billion, primarily due to last year's positive overhead impacts [3] - Net income reached a record high of BRL 1.321 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year growth [3] - ROE was 24.4%, with a 223 basis points expansion compared to the same quarter last year [4] - Diluted EPS grew by 22% year-over-year, driven by the share buyback program [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail revenue grew by 9% year-over-year, driven by fixed income and new retail verticals [23] - Fixed income revenue increased by 20% year-over-year, reaching BRL 1 billion [24] - Life insurance written premiums grew by 45% year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in this segment [15] - Credit card transactions marked BRL 12.4 billion in TPV, an 8% year-over-year increase [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The corporate and institutional segment saw a net outflow of BRL 6 billion in new money, attributed to higher interest expenses and liquidity constraints [6][7] - The company maintained a 17% market share in the local industry for its broker-dealer operations [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the leader in investments in Brazil, focusing on a diversified ecosystem that integrates retail, institutional, and corporate divisions [11][12] - New product offerings and channel diversification are key strategies to enhance client engagement and drive profitability [10][11] - The company is investing in technology and marketing to improve client experience and expand its service offerings [88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The current operating environment is more challenging than anticipated, particularly for investment banking origination activities [7] - Management remains optimistic about a solid GCM pipeline for the second half of the year and expects to achieve retail net new money averaging BRL 1 billion per quarter [8] - The company anticipates that the dynamics of the corporate lending market may continue to impact net new money in the upcoming quarters [72] Other Important Information - The company has a share buyback program of BRL 1 billion to be executed until next year, aligning with its capital distribution plan [5][31] - The BIS ratio stands at a comfortable level of 20.1%, indicating strong capital management [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital generation and dividends - Management indicated that net income is expected to grow faster than RWA, allowing for potential acceleration in dividends and buybacks [36][39] Question: Corporate lending strategy - Management acknowledged the importance of corporate lending but emphasized that growth in this area is aligned with their risk appetite [44][47] Question: Initiatives to increase net new money - Management highlighted channel diversification, new product offerings, and increased productivity of IFAs as key initiatives to drive net new money [55][57] Question: Inflows in the third quarter - Management expressed confidence in achieving BRL 20 billion in inflows, although specific inflow patterns for the quarter were not disclosed [62][67] Question: Corporate portfolio dynamics - Management explained that the corporate credit portfolio is primarily originated for securitization and sale, with current market dynamics affecting net new money [70][72] Question: Non-people related expenses - Management attributed the increase in non-people related expenses to marketing and technology investments, which are expected to continue [88][90] Question: Fee-based model impact - Management noted that while the fee-based model currently represents only 5% of AUC, it is expected to grow, potentially impacting the take rate but increasing the share of wallet [97][99]

Core Viewpoint - The transmission of tariffs to U.S. inflation is slow, increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, but the upward trend in service and commodity inflation may continue, limiting the extent of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's policy actions are entering a period of intense negotiation, with growing divergence in views, and attention is focused on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][4]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - During the week of August 8 to August 15, 2025, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with commodities experiencing varied price changes while stock markets generally rose. The Nikkei 225 increased by 3.73%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.73%, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.70%, the Hang Seng Index was up 1.65%, the Emerging Markets Stock Index increased by 1.38%, and the Developed Markets Stock Index rose by 1.08% [2]. - Commodity prices were mixed, with the S&P GSCI Commodity Index down by 0.58% and London gold spot prices down by 1.86%. In the bond market, the domestic 10Y government bond futures price fell by 0.32%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.33% [2]. Group 2: Economic Overview - In the U.S., economic conditions are showing marginal decline, but overall resilience remains strong, with rising inflation expectations. In July 2025, U.S. industrial output increased significantly year-on-year, while capacity utilization in industrial and manufacturing sectors slightly decreased. Retail and food sales saw a year-on-year decline, and consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan also fell [3]. - In Europe, economic conditions are continuing to slow, with declining inflation expectations. The Eurozone's GDP showed a slowdown in Q2 2025, and industrial production indices in both the Eurozone and Germany decreased significantly [3]. Group 3: Policy Insights - In the U.S., inflation data indicates a slow transmission of tariffs, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts. However, rising inflation expectations may limit the extent of these cuts, with the current forecast of three rate cuts this year seen as overly optimistic. Attention is on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference from August 21 to 23, where Powell may set the tone for future monetary policy [4]. - In Europe, the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its current stance in the short term, with further rate cuts postponed until December. A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe involves a 15% tariff on nearly all U.S. exports to Europe, which will be monitored for its impact on monetary policy [4]. - In Japan, domestic price pressures are rising, potentially leading to a reconsideration of the "potential inflation" indicator, with another interest rate hike expected within the year [4].

Group 1 - In July, banks in China settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 16,700 billion yuan and sold 15,070 billion yuan, indicating a continued surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales [1] - For the first seven months of the year, banks cumulatively settled 98,835 billion yuan and sold 99,020 billion yuan, with total foreign exchange income at 326,705 billion yuan and payments at 318,116 billion yuan [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a stable sales rate, reflecting a stable market expectation and active trading [1] Group 2 - In July, the net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33%, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payments [1] - The international foreign exchange market has experienced increased volatility, with the dollar index rebounding and then retreating, leading to adjustments in non-dollar currencies [1] - The cross-border capital flow has remained generally stable, with non-bank sectors' cross-border income and expenditure at historically high levels, indicating a balanced income and expenditure situation [1]

Core Insights - In July, banks in China settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, indicating a stable foreign exchange market despite increased volatility in international currency markets [1][1][1] - The foreign exchange market in China maintained a surplus of 22.8 billion USD in July, with bank settlements and sales increasing by 12% and 16% respectively compared to the previous month [1][1][1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market showed stable operations with active trading, as evidenced by a slight increase in the settlement rate and stable sales rate among enterprises and individuals [1][1][1] - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with non-bank sectors' income and expenditure reaching historical highs, indicating a balanced inflow and outflow [1][1][1] - Net inflow from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high operational level [1][1][1] Group 2 - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1][1][1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. The report mainly shows the performance data of global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.286%, the UK was 4.639%. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differed among countries. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.051, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.167, and an annual change of 0.393 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on August 14, 2025, were as follows: the US was 3.720, the UK was 3.904. The changes in different time - spans were also provided, such as the US having a latest change of - 0.040, a weekly change of 0.000, a monthly change of - 0.160, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies on August 14, 2025, were presented, like 5.417 against the South African zar. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were given, e.g., the South African zar had a latest change of - 0.14%, a weekly change of - 2.32%, a monthly change of - 4.34% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 14, 2025, major economies' stock indices had different values. For example, the Dow Jones was 6468.540, the S&P 500 was 44911.260. The latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes were also provided, such as the Dow Jones having a latest change of 0.03%, a weekly change of 2.03%, a monthly change of 23.44%, and an annual change not fully shown [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The credit bond indices of different regions and types had various changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.28%, a weekly change of 0.05%, a monthly change of 1.74%, and an annual change of 4.89% [4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3666.44 with a - 0.46% change [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.42 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 interest rate) and their环比 changes of some indices were provided, such as the S&P 500 having a risk premium of - 0.64 with a - 0.05环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were shown. For example, the latest fund flow of A - shares was - 1980.11 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22792.09 with a 1282.72环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, and IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was - 9.51 with a - 0.23% magnitude [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.325 with a 0.01% change [6]. - The money market's capital interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.3518% with a - 12.00 BP daily change [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. From January to July, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5][51]. - In July 2025, the producer price index for industrial products (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average PPI decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [5][58]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the end of June 2025, increasing for 9 consecutive months. It is expected that the central bank will continue to increase its gold holdings [6]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.2922 trillion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, remaining above $3.2 trillion for 20 consecutive months [6]. - In the first 7 months of this year, China's goods trade showed an upward trend. The total value of imports and exports was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year [6]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level declined seasonally and generally remained in a downward trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are presented. Different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and services have their respective growth rate trends [8]. - The contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025 are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related industries [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of added value of major industries from May to June in the past two years are provided, including coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing industries [22]. Major Industrial Output - The output data of major industrial products from June 2024 to June 2025 are listed, including energy products, industrial raw materials, and finished products [24]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption of major industries from March 2024 to May 2025 are given, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [33]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The main industry profit situations vary, with some industries showing growth and others decline [36]. - From January to June 2025, the mining industry's profit was 429.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30.3%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 2.59006 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry's profit was 417.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [41]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of May 2025, the finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The overall inventory is in a stage from passive replenishment to passive destocking [46]. Price Index CPI - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased. The average CPI from January to July decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [51]. - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of CPI sub - items from July 2024 to July 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and other categories [52]. PPI - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, and the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 4.5%. The average PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year [58]. - The year - on - year data of PPI for major industries from July 2024 to July 2025 are provided, including production materials, living materials, and various mining and manufacturing industries [58][61]. - The year - on - year data of industrial producer purchasing prices from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, including fuel power, black metal materials, and other categories [62]. Main City Newly - Built Residential Prices - The year - on - year and month - on - month data of the price index of newly - built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from June 2015 to June 2025 are shown, including data for first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [63][64][66].

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on August 1, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] Global Bond Market 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - In major economies on August 1, 2025, the US was at 4.218%, the UK at 4.526%, France at 3.346%, etc. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.172, and the one - year change was -0.067 [3] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - Yields and their changes are presented for different countries. For instance, China (1Y) was at 3.940 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of 0.080 [3] Exchange Rate Market Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.542, with a latest change of -1.04%. There were also changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] RMB Exchange Rates - The on - shore RMB was at 7.193, the offshore RMB at 7.194, etc. on August 1, 2025, with different changes in different time frames [3] Global Stock Index Market Major Economies' Stock Indices - As of August 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was at 6238.010, the S&P 500 at 43588.580, etc. There were different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the latest change in the Dow Jones was -1.60%, and the one - year change was 14.94% [3] Other Stock Indices - The report also includes data on the Russian, Japanese, and other countries' stock indices, such as the Nikkei at 40799.600 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of -0.66% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3559.95 with a -0.37% change [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.12 with a -0.07环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium and its环比 changes are presented for some indices. For example, the 1/PE - 10 rate of the S&P 500 was -0.44 with a 0.22环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. are shown. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -522.29 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15983.51 with a -3376.84环比 change [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis and basis ratio of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was -25.33 with a -0.62% basis ratio [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.435 with a 0.17% change [6] - The money market shows the R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M rates and their daily changes in basis points [6]

Core Insights - BCR is a reputable financial service provider focusing on forex and CFD trading, offering a diverse range of financial products for global clients [1][2] - The platform utilizes established MT4 and MT5 trading systems, known for their stability and speed, catering to both novice and experienced traders [1] - BCR emphasizes client fund security through strict fund segregation and is regulated by multiple authorities, including ASIC, ensuring compliance and transparency [2] Service Offerings - BCR provides a variety of trading options, including forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities, allowing investors to access multiple asset classes with a single account [1] - The company offers different account types, such as standard and ECN accounts, to meet the needs of various clients, with transparent trading costs and high execution efficiency [1] Customer Support and Efficiency - BCR has a strong focus on customer service, providing Chinese language support to assist non-English speaking users, which lowers the usage barrier [2] - The platform ensures efficient deposit and withdrawal processes with multiple options and quick processing times, enhancing the overall user experience [2]