Taurus has expanded its institutional digital-asset infrastructure to the Canton Network, joining the blockchain as a Super Validator and adding custody support for the Canton Token Standard, the company said in a press release Tuesday. The Geneva-based firm will help validate transactions and operate Canton’s Global Synchronizer, the coordination and settlement layer for applications built on the public, permissionless network. The move strengthens Canton’s institutional focus as banks and market operato ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin has experienced a downward trend, losing 1% recently and currently priced at $87K, reflecting a risk-off attitude in global markets [1] - The S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% following a 1.55% increase in the previous session, with mixed performance in Asia and flat-to-down movement in Europe [1] Sentiment Shift - A significant shift in sentiment is observed in the crypto market, with Bitcoin and gold previously rising together until October 6, driven by a "safe haven" narrative [2] - The narrative has changed, as Bitcoin and gold have diverged, with gold moving towards record highs while Bitcoin's market capitalization has fallen by approximately 24% (over $1 trillion) since its peak in October [4] Gold Performance - Gold has had an exceptional year, with prices surging over 50% in 2025, marking its best performance since 1979 [5] Factors Influencing Bitcoin and Gold - The unwinding of Bitcoin ETF trades has led to significant outflows, with hundreds of millions of dollars exiting these funds, negatively impacting Bitcoin's price [6] - Each $1 billion that exits a Bitcoin ETF results in a 3.4% decrease in Bitcoin's price [7] - Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has become a significant buyer of gold, matching central bank buying levels, which has contributed to gold's price increase [8]

Core Insights - Revolut has completed a secondary share sale, achieving a valuation of $75 billion, which represents a 66% increase from 2024 [1] - The fundraising was led by prominent investors including Coatue, Greenoaks, Dragoneer, and Fidelity Management & Research Company, with participation from firms like Andreessen Horowitz, Franklin Templeton, and T Rowe Price Associates [1][2] - NVentures, NVIDIA's venture capital arm, participated in the transaction, enhancing Revolut's collaboration with NVIDIA in artificial intelligence [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Revolut reported a 72% increase in revenue to $4 billion, while profit before tax surged by 149% to $1.4 billion [3] - The company's growth trajectory has continued into 2025, with a global retail customer base exceeding 65 million and Revolut Business achieving $1 billion in annualized revenue [3] Strategic Developments - Key milestones for Revolut this year include obtaining final banking authorization, launching in Mexico, acquiring a banking incorporation license in Colombia, and planning a launch in India [4] - These developments are part of Revolut's strategy to position itself as a global bank across multiple continents [4] Leadership Statements - CEO Nik Storonsky emphasized the company's progress towards becoming a truly global bank, aiming to serve 100 million customers across 100 countries [5] - CFO Victor Stinga highlighted the strong investor interest and the new valuation as indicators of the company's robust business model, which is delivering rapid growth and strong profitability [5]

Market Overview - The market is attempting to recover from recent losses, particularly in tech and crypto sectors, as investors await upcoming U.S. data before the Thanksgiving holiday [1] - Historically, Thanksgiving week has been positive for stocks, with the S&P 500 showing a median gain of 0.76% since 1945 [2] - Money markets indicate a 75% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December, influenced by dovish comments from policymakers [2] Investment Strategy - Lower interest rates typically reduce borrowing costs, encouraging business expansion and consumer spending, which is favorable for medium-term investments [3] - Investors should consider several factors when selecting companies, including stock performance, profitability, sales trends, debt levels, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend payments [4] Methodology for Stock Selection - A Finviz screener was used to identify dividend stocks with over 10% average revenue growth over the past five years, focusing on companies with consistent sales growth [6] - Stocks with a five-year average payout ratio under 60% were selected, indicating a strong cash position [6] Company Highlights Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) - Merck has a 5-year average annual revenue growth rate of 10.5% and reported Q3 2025 revenue of $17.3 billion, up 4% year-over-year [9][11] - KEYTRUDA sales grew 10% to $8.1 billion, and the company expects worldwide revenue to reach between $64.5 billion and $65 billion [11] - New product approvals and a robust pipeline with over 80 active clinical trials support growth, with notable sales from Winrevair and Capvaxive [12][13] Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) - Arthur J. Gallagher has a 5-year average annual revenue growth rate of 10.54% and reported Q3 2025 revenue of $3.3 billion, up nearly 20% year-over-year [14][15] - The company has completed significant acquisitions, including Tompkins Insurance Agencies and AssuredPartners for approximately $13.8 billion [16][17] JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) - JPMorgan Chase has a 5-year average annual revenue growth rate of 10.65% and reported Q3 2025 revenue of $47.1 billion, up 10.4% year-over-year [18][19] - The company achieved a 20% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), indicating strong profitability [19] - Recent agreements with fintech companies will enhance its data access capabilities [20][21]

Core Points - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is facing funding challenges that may hinder its ability to quickly formulate an open banking rule [2][3] - The CFPB has indicated it can operate with current funds until the end of the year, but future funding remains uncertain [2] - The bureau is working on a new open banking rule, with plans for an accelerated rulemaking process to address deficiencies in the previous rule [5][6] Funding and Operations - The CFPB cannot lawfully draw funds from the Federal Reserve System, which is its designated funding source, as concluded by the Justice Department [2] - The acting director of the CFPB has previously criticized the agency and mentioned the possibility of its closure within months [2][4] Rulemaking Process - The CFPB is revising the open banking rule, which was initially enacted under the Biden administration, and has been granted a litigation stay [3][5] - The bureau plans to potentially skip parts of the rulemaking process to issue a rule by the end of the year, which may include a public comment period [7] - Significant changes to the proposed rule, such as allowing fees for data access, would require an assessment of impacts on small businesses [6][8]

Economic Growth Projections - India's economic growth is projected to remain strong at 7.2% for the July-September quarter, down from 7.8% in the previous quarter, driven by improvements in rural activity and low inflation effects [1] - Economists forecast GDP growth in the range of 7% to 7.7% for the September quarter, with official data to be released soon [1] Inflation and Statistical Effects - The high projected growth is partly attributed to a low base effect, as GDP growth was only 5.6% in the same period last year [2] - Retail inflation decreased to 1.7% in Q2 from 2.7% in Q1, while wholesale inflation fell to 0.02% from 0.26%, positively impacting real GDP growth [2] Rural Demand and Economic Activity - High-frequency indicators indicate improved growth momentum, particularly in rural demand, supported by rising rural wages and favorable monsoon conditions [2] - Softer inflation, earlier monetary policy easing, and inventory build-up in anticipation of festive demand contributed to increased economic activity [3] Government Expenditure and Urban Indicators - Government capital expenditure growth slowed to 37% compared to 52% in the previous quarter, which may negatively impact overall growth [5] - Urban indicators, such as passenger vehicle sales and air travel, remained weak during the quarter [5] Export Performance - Exports rose by 8.7% during the quarter, contrasting with a 2.2% contraction in the previous quarter, due to front-loading of shipments and trade diversification efforts [6] Monetary Policy Considerations - If GDP growth meets projections, it will slightly exceed the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forecast of 7%, complicating potential rate cuts despite low inflation [8] - Weak nominal GDP growth, expected to be under 9%, may keep the door open for a rate cut by the RBI [8] - The rationale for monetary easing is not strong based on current growth trends, but a rate cut of 25-50 basis points may still be considered to prevent deeper economic sluggishness [9]

Core Insights - Trafigura Group faced significant financial losses, approximately $600 million, due to questionable nickel-financing deals with firms run by Prateek Gupta, which have been described as resembling a Ponzi scheme [1][4] - Concerns regarding the relationship with Gupta were raised as early as September 2020, indicating that senior management was aware of potential risks long before the eventual collapse of the trading arrangement [2][3][5] Group 1: Financial Impact and Allegations - The trading house revealed in early 2023 that it had been defrauded, discovering that over $500 million worth of metal it purchased contained no nickel but rather stainless steel, aluminum, and worthless iron briquettes [4] - By 2021, the business dealings with Gupta had escalated to nearly 70,000 tons, equating to $1.2 billion in annual trading, despite earlier warnings from the trade finance department [5] - Gupta's firms engaged in "transit financing," where cargoes were sold and then bought back at a premium, raising questions about the legitimacy of the transactions [6] Group 2: Internal Concerns and Management Awareness - Emails from Trafigura's trade finance desk highlighted alarm over the business strategy with Gupta, noting long voyage times, high interest costs, and irregular sales, which led to concerns from major banks like Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank about processing payments to Gupta's companies [8] - Senior figures within Trafigura, including the co-heads of metals, expressed disapproval of the dealings with Gupta, indicating a mixed reception among the company's leadership [9]

Market Overview - The local share market started strong but quickly traded flat with minor losses throughout the session [1] - Gold prices rose above US$4,100 an ounce amid mixed responses to potential US Fed rate cuts, while major banks showed declines [2] Economic Indicators - Monthly CPI data from the ABS is expected, but significant market movement is unlikely unless there is a major shock [3] Sector Performance - Materials sector led with a gain of approximately 1.5%, while financials lagged down over 1% [3] Company Highlights - WEB Travel Group's stock increased nearly 10% after earnings met analyst expectations, focusing on B2B hotel room bookings [3] - Metallium Ltd's shares jumped over 15% intraday as it announced plans to list ADRs on NASDAQ, with a focus on extracting metals from e-waste [4] - Droneshield's stock rose following a $5 million contract announcement, alleviating concerns over recent director share sales [4] Company Declines - Bendigo Bank's shares fell after a Deloitte report indicated deficiencies in its money laundering risk assessment protocols, compounding recent cost concerns [4] - Bougainville Copper's stock plummeted 50% after a partner ceased contact, leading to a separate MOU with the Bougainville government that restricts Bougainville Copper's involvement [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global credit market outlook for 2026, focusing on the US and EU credit markets, private credit, and the impact of AI on debt financing [2][3][4][6][39]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Credit Spread Projections**: - US investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) spreads are expected to widen to 100 basis points (bp) and 350bp respectively by Q1 2026, before narrowing to 85bp and 300bp by year-end 2026 [5][42]. - EU IG and HY spreads are projected at 80bp and 275bp by the end of 2026, with expectations of outperformance during widening phases [5][8]. 2. **Default Rate Expectations**: - Default rates are anticipated to rise, particularly in private credit, which is in a more advanced stage of the credit cycle. A rise of 200-300bp in private credit defaults is forecasted, while US leveraged loans and high yield are expected to increase by 50-100bp through mid-2026 [5][22][68]. 3. **Economic Conditions**: - The US faces late-cycle stress with a 36% probability of recession by late 2026, driven by weakening corporate profits, higher interest costs, and rising non-performing loans [5][39][60]. - Labor market softness is expected to persist into 2026, with declining consumer sentiment and durable goods sales [5][39]. 4. **Sector Concentration Risks**: - Private credit markets show high sector concentration, particularly in services, technology, and healthcare, increasing vulnerability to sector-specific shocks [5][40][87]. 5. **Global Credit Issuance**: - An increase in global credit issuance is expected in 2026, led by US IG and HY markets, driven by hyperscaler capital expenditures and increased M&A activity [5][26][41]. 6. **AI Impact on Credit Markets**: - The emergence of AI is seen as a double-edged sword, with potential for both disruption and growth. A bust in AI could negatively impact 20-30% of newer firms in private credit, while a boom could drive productivity gains [5][40][43]. 7. **Investment Strategies**: - Recommended trades include long positions in EU IG vs. US IG, long US equities vs. credit, and long put spreads on dividend futures [5][16][42]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Credit Fundamentals**: - US corporate balance sheet health is deteriorating, with IG scores below median levels, while European metrics appear healthier [5][28][65]. - The private credit sector's exposure to AI presents systemic risks, particularly among US mega-cap banks and private equity-owned firms [5][40]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Technicals**: - Weaker US credit technicals are anticipated in H1 2026 due to increased issuance and reduced overseas demand, although demand may improve later in the year [5][41]. 3. **Consumer Credit Cycle**: - The consumer credit cycle is showing signs of deterioration, with weaker sentiment reflected in housing and auto sales data [5][70]. 4. **Historical Context**: - Current exposure to public and private credit markets is significantly higher than during previous crises, indicating increased systemic importance [5][75]. 5. **Risks and Scenarios**: - Downside risks include an AI bust and a bond market shock, while upside risks are associated with an AI boom driving productivity gains [5][43]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the credit markets.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus for 2026 in Asian markets will shift from AI-driven stocks to growth opportunities beyond AI, dividends, and previously overlooked stories in Asia [2][12][14] - Key themes include structural stories in energy self-sufficiency, new technology, financial deepening, and the growth of formal retail in ASEAN [12][14] Company-Specific Insights 1. Harbin Electric (1133 HK) - **Sector**: Electrical Equipment - **Market Cap**: USD 3.648 billion - **Current Price**: HKD 15.53; **Target Price**: HKD 22.00 - **PE Ratio**: 10.7; **PB Ratio**: 1.6; **ROE**: 16.2% - **Key Points**: - Benefiting from China's push for energy self-sufficiency, particularly in coal and nuclear power [16][18] - Expected earnings CAGR of 34% from 2024-2027 [19] - Potential inclusion in Stock Connect in 2026 [19] 2. Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) - **Sector**: Auto Components - **Market Cap**: USD 14.901 billion - **Current Price**: CNY 8.44; **Target Price**: CNY 11.00 - **Key Points**: - Positioned to benefit from the growth of autonomous driving technology [23][25] - Expected revenue CAGR of 64% from 2025-2027 [27] 3. Goldwind Science & Tech (002202 CH) - **Sector**: Electric Utilities - **Market Cap**: USD 8.753 billion - **Current Price**: CNY 15.35; **Target Price**: CNY 20.40 - **Key Points**: - Leading manufacturer of wind turbines with strong demand in emerging markets [30][32] - Expected net profit growth of 58% in 2025 [32] 4. Trip.com Group (TCOM US) - **Sector**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: USD 48.707 billion - **Current Price**: USD 74.52; **Target Price**: USD 90.00 - **Key Points**: - Dominates China's online travel market with over 50% GTV [39] - Expected revenue growth of 15% CAGR from 2025-2027 [39] 5. BOCHK Holdings (2388 HK) - **Sector**: Commercial Banks - **Market Cap**: USD 54.013 billion - **Current Price**: HKD 39.70; **Target Price**: HKD 45.20 - **Key Points**: - Benefits from increased cross-border opportunities and offers a 5.5% dividend yield [44][46] 6. PB Fintech (POLICYBZ IN) - **Sector**: Internet Software & Services - **Market Cap**: USD 8.999 billion - **Current Price**: INR 1,734.70; **Target Price**: INR 2,250.00 - **Key Points**: - Operates India's largest online insurance marketplace [49] - Expected revenue CAGR of 30% from 2025-2028 [51] 7. Phoenix Mills (PHNX IN) - **Sector**: Real Estate Management & Development - **Market Cap**: USD 6.904 billion - **Current Price**: INR 1,714.80; **Target Price**: INR 2,110.00 - **Key Points**: - Largest mall operator in India, evolving into a mixed-use developer [54][56] 8. E-Mart (139480 KS) - **Sector**: Multiline Retail - **Market Cap**: USD 1.482 billion - **Current Price**: KRW 79,000.00; **Target Price**: KRW 120,000.00 - **Key Points**: - Trading at 0.2x PB, highlighting deep value [59] - Transformation into a multiline retailer with various catalysts for growth [60] 9. E Ink Holdings (8069 TT) - **Sector**: Technology - **Market Cap**: Not specified - **Current Price**: TWD 169.00; **Target Price**: TWD 305.00 - **Key Points**: - Holds over 90% of the global e-paper market and expanding capacity [62] 10. ICTSI (ICT PM) - **Sector**: Transport & Logistics - **Market Cap**: Not specified - **Current Price**: PHP 558.50; **Target Price**: PHP 630.00 - **Key Points**: - Offers growth and yield at attractive valuations [62] 11. City Developments (CIT SP) - **Sector**: Real Estate Management & Development - **Market Cap**: Not specified - **Current Price**: SGD 7.43; **Target Price**: SGD 11.00 - **Key Points**: - Positioned to benefit from a turnaround in Singapore's property sector [62] 12. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - **Sector**: Retail - **Market Cap**: Not specified - **Current Price**: IDR 1,895.00; **Target Price**: IDR 2,900.00 - **Key Points**: - Expected to benefit from policies boosting consumption in Indonesia [62] Additional Insights - Asian dividends have doubled over the last 20 years, indicating potential for further increases in payout ratios [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of EPS growth for continued market gains, particularly in China [12][14]