Core Viewpoint - The company, 東瀛游 (6882.HK), anticipates a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year, projecting approximately HKD 6 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 82% [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 34.12 million, translating to earnings per share of 6.79 cents [1] - The substantial drop in expected profits is attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and escalating international trade disputes impacting the global economy [1] Market Conditions - The evolving tariff situation has increased uncertainty, severely disrupting global trade and investment [1] - Rumors of a major earthquake in Japan in July led to a sharp decline in tourism demand, significantly affecting the company's revenue and gross profit from tourism-related businesses [1] Business Segments - Despite the challenges in tourism, the company's hotel business performed satisfactorily, although overall net profit for the first half of the year still saw a significant reduction [1] - The company reassured that the rumored earthquake on July 5 did not occur and was confirmed to be unfounded [1] Future Outlook - The company expects a gradual recovery in the number of tourists traveling from Hong Kong to Japan in the coming months [1] - There is optimism regarding the improvement of tourism-related business in the second half of the year, alongside continued strong performance in the hotel segment [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Russia to make progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening new sanctions if no progress is made [1][3] Oil Market Impact - Following Trump's announcement, light crude oil futures rose by $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase, while Brent crude increased by $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% rise [1] - Oil prices had already been on the rise due to signs of tightening inventories and strong demand during the summer season [6] - The geopolitical tensions and potential new sanctions could tighten Russia's oil supply to global markets, impacting prices further [3][4] Trade Agreements and Market Sentiment - Optimism in the market is supported by potential trade agreements between the U.S. and major partners like Mexico, Canada, and China, which could positively affect demand [4] - The U.S.-EU trade agreement has alleviated fears of a trade war, contributing to a more favorable market outlook [6] Secondary Sanctions and Global Buyers - The proposed "secondary tariffs" on countries purchasing Russian oil could significantly impact major buyers like China and India [7] - The U.S. has warned China about potential tariffs if it continues to buy Russian oil, while India has indicated compliance with secondary sanctions [7] - The risk of Russia retaliating by cutting off oil pipelines could further pressure oil prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Volatile" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices moved up due to geopolitical tensions, but the rebound is limited without substantial supply disruptions [1] - Fuel oil market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - Asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilizes [2] - Polyester prices are expected to return to the previous oscillation range due to cost support and low inventory [3] - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to macro events and supply factors [3] - Methanol is expected to enter an oscillation phase after valuation repair [4] - Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - PVC supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing [4] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 9 - month contract rose $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, Brent 9 - month contract rose $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, and SC2509 rose 10.4 yuan to 515.9 yuan per barrel. Geopolitical tensions caused by Trump's actions on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a rise in oil prices, but the rebound is limited without actual supply impact [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, FU2509 fell 0.9% to 2869 yuan/ton, and LU2510 fell 1.03% to 3545 yuan/ton. The market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, BU2509 fell 1.05% to 3569 yuan/ton. Entering August, supply may increase slightly, but demand is affected by rainfall. The market is supported by low supply and inventory [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 fell 2.51% to 4812 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 2.4% to 4436 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, but cost support and low inventory are expected to keep prices oscillating [3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, RU2509 fell 520 yuan/ton to 15065 yuan/ton, NR fell 510 yuan/ton to 12810 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, and short - term macro events will cause price fluctuations [3] - **Methanol**: Comprehensive factors such as increased Iranian device load and arrivals, stable downstream profits and inventory increase lead to weak fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate after valuation repair [4] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the downside space is limited if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread are widening [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on July 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change and historical quantile of basis rate [6] 3.3 Market News - Trump advanced the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire deadline, causing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the crude oil market [9] - The EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and traders are preparing for a tighter European diesel market and possible redirection of Russian oil exports [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][31][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [62][64][68] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [71][73][74] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in relevant fields [76][77][78]

Group 1 - Recent gold price correction is seen as a potential opportunity rather than a warning for investors, especially with the upcoming U.S. July non-farm payroll report [1][4] - The correction is a healthy market adjustment, with gold prices stabilizing above key support levels, potentially building momentum for further increases [3] - The market is currently focused on the non-farm payroll report, which is expected to be a key driver for gold and the broader financial market this week [4] Group 2 - Key data points to watch include the number of new non-farm jobs, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth, which are critical indicators of the U.S. labor market and inflation expectations [5][6] - If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, it could benefit gold by reinforcing expectations for earlier or faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could be bearish for gold, as it may weaken rate cut expectations and increase the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [7] Group 3 - Suggested strategies for trading during the non-farm week include maintaining light positions before the data release, focusing on key support and resistance levels, and being cautious about heavy bets [8] - During the data release, aggressive traders may capitalize on immediate volatility, while more conservative traders are advised to wait for the market to stabilize before entering positions [10] - Post-release, the trend should be confirmed before taking further positions, with a focus on whether gold breaks through significant resistance or support levels [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, with recent fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, while the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Price Movement Analysis - As of July 22, gold is trading around $3,388 per ounce, having experienced a rebound after stabilizing at $3,345, breaking through the key resistance level of $3,376, and reaching a high of $3,400 [1][3]. - The breakout of the $3,376 resistance has turned it into a significant support level, indicating that the bullish trend remains intact despite recent fluctuations [1][3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has established support at the $3,376 level, with short-term resistance focused in the $3,400 to $3,420 range, where $3,420 aligns with historical high points [4][6]. - The 4-hour chart indicates strong support near the Bollinger Band midline at $3,380, and while the MACD shows signs of a potential pullback, there is no clear bearish signal yet, suggesting that bullish momentum is still building [4]. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy includes entering long positions around $3,380, with protective stops set at $3,374, targeting the previous high of $3,402 [7]. - For aggressive traders, entering long positions at the current price of $3,388 is suggested, with plans to add to positions upon a pullback to $3,380 [7]. - Short positions are advised to be considered only after gold reaches the $3,420 resistance level [8].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, while also facing pressure from fluctuating dollar indices and changing market risk preferences [3][5]. Market Analysis - On July 18, spot gold closed at $3350.05, showing a slight decline of 0.25% after a strong rebound from a low of $3309.82, indicating intensified market competition between bulls and bears [1]. - The recent strong U.S. retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000) contributed to the initial drop in gold prices, but subsequent market reactions led to a recovery [1][3]. - The gold price is currently forming a tight technical triangle between $3320 and $3377, with critical support at $3320 and resistance at $3377, which could lead to further movements towards $3390 and potentially $3400 or $3428 if broken [3][5]. Technical Indicators - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential for price movement, with gold trading above the middle band, suggesting a rebound from oversold conditions [5]. - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI indicates strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of upward movement [5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $3340 with a protective stop at $3330, targeting $3365, while medium-term strategies remain bullish as long as prices hold above $3300 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant generational economic shift characterized by debt accumulation, social division, geopolitical tensions, and the potential collapse of the monetary system, suggesting that this is not just another economic recession but a transformative crisis that could reshape society [3]. Debt Cycle and Unsustainable Growth - Low debt costs, often due to low interest rates, lead borrowers to become complacent, resulting in increased leverage that becomes unsustainable as interest rates rise [5]. - The feedback loop created by debt-driven spending and growth can lead to asset price inflation, creating a false sense of security that ultimately results in a painful deleveraging process when debt repayment becomes burdensome [5][6]. - Central banks typically lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and consumption, but this tool loses effectiveness when rates approach zero, leading to reliance on quantitative easing, which can distort price discovery and exacerbate inequality [6][7]. Internal Fractures: Social and Political Divisions - Historical patterns show that social disintegration often follows a buildup of tensions among various societal groups, leading to political dysfunction and economic inequality [9]. - Trust in institutions and leaders is crucial for societal cohesion; when this trust erodes, it can lead to a breakdown of the social contract and increased polarization [10][11]. - The rise of populism and extreme political rhetoric can hinder effective governance, making it difficult to address pressing issues like debt and education [10][11]. Geopolitical Deconstruction and Cold War 2.0 - The article highlights a strategic decoupling in global relations, particularly between the West and China, leading to a fragmented world order where nations prioritize security over efficiency in supply chains [13][14]. - Competition for technological supremacy and control over critical resources is intensifying, with countries increasingly seeking to reduce dependence on adversaries [14][15]. - The erosion of trust in the global financial system, particularly regarding the U.S. dollar, is prompting nations to explore alternative currencies and payment systems [17][18]. Currency Order Cracks - The current monetary system, heavily reliant on the U.S. dollar, is facing challenges due to persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt levels, leading to a loss of confidence in its stability [18][19]. - Countries are increasingly seeking to diversify away from dollar dependence, engaging in bilateral trade agreements and exploring digital currencies [20][21]. - The transition away from a dollar-centric system may not lead to immediate collapse but indicates a shift towards increased volatility and uncertainty in global finance [21]. Next Phase: Pain or Restructuring - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks and opportunities in a volatile environment, advocating for a balanced approach to resource allocation [22][24]. - Diversification across asset classes, countries, and economic conditions is crucial for managing risk and seizing opportunities during periods of upheaval [24][25]. - Successful navigation of these challenges requires a thoughtful, adaptable strategy that prepares for multiple outcomes rather than relying on a single perspective [25][26].

Core Insights - The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) reported a year-on-year increase of 4.84% in passenger vehicle retail sales for June [1] - The organization maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the short-term market despite challenges [1] Industry Summary - Passenger vehicle retail sales in June experienced a growth of 4.84% compared to the same month last year [1] - FADA emphasizes the need for vigilance due to factors such as rare earth shortages, geopolitical tensions, and the spillover effects of U.S. tariffs [1]

Group 1 - Canada has ordered Hikvision to cease operations in the country, citing "national security" concerns, which reflects a broader geopolitical tension and bias against Chinese companies [1] - The Canadian Minister of Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, stated that the decision was made after a multi-step review by Canadian security and intelligence agencies [1] - Hikvision's spokesperson expressed strong opposition to the decision, arguing that it lacks factual basis, procedural fairness, and transparency, and is influenced by the company's country of origin rather than its technology standards [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Embassy in Canada condemned the move, asserting that it undermines the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises and disrupts normal economic and trade cooperation between China and Canada [1] - The situation highlights ongoing challenges in China-Canada relations, indicating that despite changes in leadership, Canada continues to struggle with a fair approach towards Chinese companies [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The core view is that gold prices are expected to decline below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally [1][2] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, before gradually falling to a range of $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a decline of approximately 20-25% from current forward prices [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold price movements: a base case (60% probability) where prices remain above $3000 per ounce for the next quarter before declining, a bullish case (20% probability) where geopolitical tensions and inflation risks push prices to new highs, and a bearish case (20% probability) where resolution of tariff issues leads to a sharp price drop [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Short-term, gold is expected to maintain high prices in Q3 due to strong investment demand [5] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks, rather than central bank purchases; resilient jewelry consumption also supports prices [6] - Global gold expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 0.5%, the highest level in the past fifty years, indicating strong investor preference for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 3: Future Economic Conditions - In Q4, global growth confidence may improve slightly, particularly with the implementation of U.S. stimulus budgets, which could reduce safe-haven sentiment; a potential shift towards more moderate trade policies under Trump may also decrease market uncertainty [9] - Expectations of a shift from tightening to a neutral stance by the Federal Reserve could further diminish gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [9] - Historical data over the past 55 years shows that when investment demand declines, gold prices tend to fall, as price adjustments lead to reduced jewelry consumption and encourage inventory holders to sell [10] Group 4: Industrial Metals Outlook - In contrast to gold, Citigroup maintains a structurally bullish outlook on industrial metals despite short-term pressures from tariffs and weak demand [11] - The aluminum market is particularly favored, with the report highlighting aluminum as a "future-facing" metal, constrained on the supply side by energy intensity and driven on the demand side by strong growth in AI data centers, humanoid robots, and decarbonization processes [12][13] - Citigroup forecasts a supply shortage in aluminum over the next five years at current price levels, necessitating prices to rise above $3000 per ton to incentivize sufficient supply growth [14]