Most active gold futures touched a high of $3,994.50 an ounce on Comex Monday. - Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Gold’s climb to record highs has become somewhat of a steady march this year, but there doesn’t appear to be anything that can soon stop the precious metal from reaching the key psychological level of $4,000 an ounce. What’s happening to gold feels “less like bracing for a storm, and more like a plane catching a powerful tailwind midflight,” Adam Koos, president and senior financial adviser ...

黄金周二（9月23日）早盘小幅回落3738附近企稳上涨，在上涨至3759附近受阻回落下探3736。随后开始震荡慢涨走势，到欧盘加速上涨，最高触及3791附 近后开始高位震荡，美盘转跌，凌晨最低跌至3752附近，日线收出一根带有上影线的小阳线。 一、基本面 1、地缘政治紧张激发避险需求 北约就俄罗斯侵犯爱沙尼亚领空行为发出强烈警告，加剧国际关系不确定性，黄金作为非主权、无违约风险的"避风港"资产，吸引大量避险资金流入。 美国总统特朗普表态称乌克兰有望在北约支持下夺回原有领土，对俄乌局势发表强硬言论，进一步扰动市场情绪。同时，其在联合国大会期间与多国穆斯林 领导人会晤商讨加沙冲突等问题，相关进展引发投资者关注。 2、美联储降息预期持续发酵 美联储主席鲍威尔表态谨慎，提及通胀快于预期风险与就业增长疲软的双重挑战，未明确下次降息时机，但市场解读偏乐观。 交易员普遍预期美联储10月和12月再次降息可能性极高，降息将降低持有黄金的机会成本，且可能削弱美元，为以美元计价的黄金提供支撑。 因此，今日先关注行情修正情况。若修正过程中能守住短期支撑，且未出现大幅回调，说明多头承接力较强，前期上涨趋势的延续性仍值得期待；反之，若 ...

周二亚洲时段，现货 黄金一度上涨至3,749.27美元/盎司，继续刷新纪录。上周在鲍威尔压制快速宽松 预期、黄金短暂回落后，投资者迅速涌入黄金ETF，周五持仓增幅创三年多来最快。"在美联储降息25 个基点次日回落后，新的上行动能已经形成，可能是因市场感受到鲍威尔在讲话中的谨慎态度，而ETF 资金流入仍是主要驱动力。"BMO资本市场分析师在报告中表示，"随着降息周期已牢牢摆上台面，我 们认为进入第四季度价格的风险回报依然积极。"在美联储降息、各国央行增加黄金储备，以及持续的 地缘政治紧张推动避险需求的背景下，黄金已成为今年表现最强劲的 大宗商品之一，高盛等主要投行 均预计价格将进一步上涨。 ...

Group 1 - Recent gold price surge driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical tensions, with prices briefly surpassing $3700, marking a historical high [1] - Investors are taking profits ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, leading to a price correction, making the upcoming rate decision and Powell's speech critical for gold price direction [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices operating below the upper band, while MACD shows a bullish crossover and RSI indicates an overbought condition, suggesting a potential pullback [2] - On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are slowing down, with prices above the middle band, MACD showing a bearish crossover, and RSI indicating a pullback from overbought levels [2] - The 1-hour chart shows a slowing Bollinger Band, with prices above the middle band, MACD indicating a bullish crossover, and RSI suggesting a rebound from oversold conditions, indicating a potential for a strong price increase [2] Group 3 - For bullish positions, aggressive traders should consider entering near the support level of $3350/oz, while conservative traders may wait for a stabilization around $3300/oz before entering [3] - For bearish positions, aggressive traders should look to sell near the resistance level of $3700/oz, while conservative traders may wait for a confirmation around $3750/oz [3] - Recommendations for various gold trading instruments include: - Shanghai gold futures showing strong overall trends but currently in a correction, with support around 830-832 CNY/g, targeting 840 CNY/g [3] - Relying on international gold prices, with support for Rontong gold at 825-828 CNY/g [3] - Accumulating Jicun gold at 825-828 CNY/g for long-term holding [3] - Gold T+D trading strategy suggests buying near support at 828-830 CNY/g and targeting resistance at 840 CNY/g [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that weak U.S. employment data and rising initial jobless claims strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, supporting gold prices. However, a rebound in the U.S. dollar and bond yields limits the price increase. Geopolitical tensions, such as Israel's attack on Qatar and Poland shooting down a drone, elevate risk aversion, which is bullish for gold [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices near the upper band. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, while the RSI is in an overbought state, indicating a potential pullback in gold prices [2] - On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices near the middle band. The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, and the RSI indicates a pullback from overbought conditions [2] - On the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are also narrowing, with gold prices near the middle band. The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, and the RSI indicates a rebound from oversold conditions, suggesting a slowdown in upward momentum for gold prices [2] Group 3 - For future gold trading strategies, aggressive traders may consider buying near the support level of $3,350 per ounce, while more cautious traders may wait for a stabilization around $3,300 per ounce before entering long positions. For short positions, aggressive traders may look to sell near the resistance level of $3,660 per ounce, while cautious traders may consider selling around $3,700 per ounce [3] - In terms of futures trading recommendations, the Shanghai gold futures market is expected to maintain a bullish trend influenced by the Fed's rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors. A pullback to ¥830-831 per gram may present a buying opportunity, targeting ¥835-840 per gram [3] - The Rontong gold market is expected to follow international gold prices, with a potential buying opportunity if prices drop to ¥825-826 per gram. The accumulation gold market is supported by multiple favorable factors, with a buying opportunity if prices retreat to ¥820-822 per gram [3] - The gold T+D market is expected to rise with spot gold prices, with a buying opportunity if prices drop to ¥825-826 per gram, while strict position control is advised due to leverage risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price continues to rise, attracting global investors, with domestic gold jewelry prices nearing 1080 CNY per gram [1][3]. Group 1: International Gold Price Trends - As of September 11, 2025, the COMEX gold futures price rose by 0.45% to 3680.4 USD per ounce, but saw a slight decline of 0.25% to 3672.9 USD per ounce during Asian trading [3]. - The London spot gold is trading around 3629.75 USD per ounce, down 10.28 USD year-on-year, indicating a 0.28% decrease [3]. - The gold price reached a historical high of 3715.2 USD per ounce on September 9, 2025, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 39%, following a strong 27% rise in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Price Situation - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D price is reported at 831.5 CNY per gram, marking a 0.31% increase and maintaining above the critical support level of 830 CNY for three consecutive trading days [4]. - The main futures contract for gold in Shanghai closed at 835.16 CNY per gram, with a 0.21% increase, indicating a bullish technical outlook [5]. - Investment gold bar prices range between 843 to 846 CNY per gram, while gold recycling prices have reached 820 CNY per gram [6]. Group 3: Brand Jewelry Prices - Major brand jewelry retail prices are rising, with prices per gram ranging from 872 to 1079 CNY, including brands like Chow Tai Fook at 1073 CNY and Chow Sang Sang at 1073 CNY [6]. Group 4: Market Driving Factors - The U.S. Producer Price Index for August rose less than expected, strengthening market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as Israel's attacks on Hamas leaders, are driving safe-haven investments into gold [7]. - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported addition of 166 tons in Q2, and China's gold reserves increased by 6,000 ounces in August [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Technically, gold prices remain above the 50-day moving average of 3389.4 USD, with resistance around 3750 USD, and a daily close above this level could lead to a target of 3900 USD [8]. - Swiss bank Lombard Odier has raised its 12-month gold price target to 3900 USD per ounce, citing increased market risks including inflation and rising government debt [9]. - Goldman Sachs reports that gold has become the most favored long position among investors, with a bullish-to-bearish ratio of nearly 8 to 1, indicating overwhelming market optimism [9]. Group 6: Central Bank Perspectives - 95% of surveyed central banks expect an increase in global official gold reserves over the next 12 months, driven by a weakening dollar, ongoing central bank purchases, and expectations of loose monetary policy [10]. - Investors are increasingly viewing gold as a "ultimate store of value" amid concerns over unsustainable global debt and geopolitical instability [11].

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank has raised its year-end spot gold target to $3,800 per ounce, anticipating a peak near $4,000 by June next year, driven by a weaker dollar and central bank gold purchases [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - Spot gold reached a historical high of $3,674 this week, with a year-to-date increase of 38% [1] - Factors such as loose monetary policy and geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold investments [1] - ANZ forecasts central bank gold purchases to remain between 900 to 950 tons in 2025, with an expected 485 to 500 tons in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Several central banks have signaled intentions to purchase gold, with the Czech central bank's gold reserves reaching a record high [1] - China's gold reserves have been increasing for ten consecutive months as of the end of August [1] Group 3: ETF Investments - ANZ predicts that the gold holdings in major markets will increase, with an additional 200 tons of ETF investments expected in the remainder of 2025 [1] Group 4: Silver Market Outlook - ANZ has also raised its year-end silver target to $44.7 per ounce, with spot silver reaching a 14-year high on Monday [1] Group 5: Monetary Policy Implications - Labor market risks may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain loose monetary policies until March 2026, further enhancing gold's appeal [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index reaching approximately 26,200 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30.6% [11][12]. - The report discusses the impact of various economic factors, including the People's Bank of China's recent adjustments to interest rates and the ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, which are expected to influence market conditions in the short to medium term [11][12]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of individual stocks within the Hang Seng Index, identifying the best and worst performers, with Lenovo Group (0992) showing a daily increase of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 15.6% [4]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index recorded a trading volume of HKD 2,882.1 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.0 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.22 [5]. - The H-share Index had a trading volume of HKD 1,191.4 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.7 and a PB ratio of 1.10 [5]. - The technology index reported a trading volume of HKD 962.2 billion, with a PE ratio of 22.7 and a PB ratio of 3.33 [5]. Company Performance - Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK) reported a 8.3% year-on-year increase in operating revenue to HKD 23.25 billion, with adjusted EBITDA rising 14.2% to HKD 6.87 billion [26]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.70 per share, reflecting a strong overall performance [26]. - The gaming operations revenue increased by 10.7% to HKD 18.58 billion, while hotel and shopping center revenues grew by 2.5% to HKD 3.17 billion [26]. New Stock Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Hesai Technology (2525) with a listing price of HKD 228.00 and a maximum fundraising amount of approximately HKD 3.876 billion [31]. - Health 160 (2656) is set to list with a price range of HKD 11.89 to 14.86, aiming to raise up to HKD 500 million [31]. - The report notes that the market sentiment for these new listings is expected to be moderate [32][33].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts the world is entering a "Commodity Control Cycle" due to stagnation in globalization and inward-looking policies by nations [1][7] - The traditional stock-bond portfolio is deemed vulnerable in the face of two types of stagflation risks: erosion of institutional credibility and supply shocks [2][6] Commodity Control Cycle - The cycle consists of four phases: insulation, expansion, concentration, and leverage [3][4] - **Insulation**: Governments implement tariffs, subsidies, and strategic reserves to protect domestic supply chains [3] - **Expansion**: Once domestic supply is secured, surplus production is used for exports, with OPEC+ and U.S. LNG exports gaining market share [3] - **Concentration**: High-cost producers exit the market, leading to supply concentration among a few dominant players [3] - **Leverage**: Dominant producers can use export restrictions as geopolitical and economic leverage, increasing market disruption risks [3][5] Geopolitical Risks - The concentration of commodity supply heightens geopolitical risks, as seen in historical cases like the 1973 oil embargo and Russia's gas supply cuts to Europe [5] - Key maritime chokepoints exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities, with diminishing naval protection increasing geopolitical risks for commodity flows [5] Strategic Value of Commodities - The report emphasizes the strategic value of commodities in investment portfolios, particularly in a fragmented and supply-chain-weakening world [6][7] - Not all commodities provide the same hedging effectiveness, which depends on their weight in the inflation basket and the likelihood of supply disruptions [6][9] Conclusion - As the world transitions into a "Commodity Control Cycle," incorporating a diverse range of commodities into investment portfolios is a strategic decision to mitigate future inflation and geopolitical risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - Dongying Travel (06882) has issued a profit warning, expecting a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to various factors including geopolitical tensions and rumors affecting tourism demand in Japan [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 6 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a decrease of about 82% compared to the net profit of approximately 34 million HKD for the same period in 2024 [1] Market Conditions - The global economy is facing numerous challenges due to escalating geopolitical tensions and international trade disputes, which have led to increased uncertainty and significant disruptions in global trade and investment [1] - The evolving tariff situation has further exacerbated these uncertainties, impacting the overall market environment [1] Impact of Rumors - A rumor regarding a large-scale earthquake in Japan, originating from a Japanese manga published 30 years ago, has circulated widely on social media, leading to a sharp decline in tourism demand for Japan, despite its popularity among residents of Hong Kong [1]