Summary of China Consumer Pulse Check: 3Q25 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Consumer** sector, highlighting softer consumption trends in **3Q25** across various industries including spirits, sportswear, cosmetics, and dairy [2][12]. Key Findings - **Overall Demand**: Consumption trends have softened, with earnings misses and growth deceleration noted in multiple sectors. Home appliances, despite benefiting from trade-in policies, also experienced a deceleration due to tougher comparisons and subsidy controls [2][12]. - **Peak Season Performance**: Goods consumption during peak seasons, such as the National Day holiday and Double 11, was weaker than expected, indicating a broader trend of demand softness [2][12]. - **Price Pressure**: The softness in demand has continued to pressure prices in categories like sportswear, spirits, and dairy. However, some players in prepared food and air conditioning are becoming more disciplined in their promotions due to limited economic value [2][12]. - **Bright Spots**: Some multinational corporations, particularly in the premium segments like luxury goods and cosmetics, reported signs of improvement in trends, attributed to wealth effects, foreign exchange impacts, easier comparisons, and improved operations [2][12]. - **Cautious Outlook**: Despite some positive signs, the overall outlook remains cautious due to broad-based softness observed in 3Q results and deteriorating macro data related to consumption [2][12]. Sector Preferences - **Preferred Sectors**: The most preferred sectors identified are diversified retailers, beverages, and pet food. The apparel and footwear OEM sector preference has been lifted to Neutral from least preferred due to easing tariff uncertainties [3][12]. - **Least Preferred Sectors**: The least preferred sectors include sports retailers, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, and non-super-premium spirits [3][12]. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes focusing on companies with idiosyncratic growth opportunities, particularly in the new consumption space, despite softening sentiment due to brand cycles and base concerns. Companies with high shareholder returns and market share efficiency are viewed as more defensive in the current consumption backdrop [2][12]. Additional Insights - **Earnings Visibility**: Companies with relatively high earnings visibility into the next year, such as those driven by store and category expansion in freshly made drinks, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that while some sectors are facing challenges, there are still opportunities for growth in niche and premium brands, which are expected to outperform the broader industry despite a likely slowdown compared to the first half of the year [12][14]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the China consumer market for 3Q25 indicates a cautious approach due to softer demand trends, with specific sectors showing resilience and potential for growth. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth visibility while remaining aware of the broader economic challenges.

Core Insights - The analysis focuses on future-oriented industries where culture, technology, and valuation intersect, particularly in digital assets and gaming sectors [1] Group 1: Digital Assets - The analysis covers major cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, highlighting their role in reshaping global finance [1] Group 2: Gaming Industry - The report includes gaming publishers like Nintendo, Capcom, and Square Enix, emphasizing their impact on the entertainment landscape [1] Group 3: Consumer Brands - Selected consumer brands such as Monster Beverage, Sprouts, and Macy's are analyzed, with a focus on how brand and consumer behavior contribute to long-term value [1] Group 4: Analytical Approach - The approach combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and relative valuation methods with macroeconomic and narrative context to identify early investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tilray Brands advocates for sensible regulations on hemp-derived THC products, emphasizing the need for a taxed pathway that ensures consumer safety and promotes economic growth [1][3][4]. Industry Position - Tilray Brands aligns with a coalition of major operators in the alcohol and beverage sectors to push for responsible regulations, arguing that prohibition leads to unregulated markets and unsafe products [3][4]. - The hemp-derived THC beverage market is valued at $1 billion in the U.S., supported by small business investments and job creation [5]. Regulatory Framework - The company supports a federal baseline framework for hemp-derived THC product regulation, proposing a cap of 10mg of delta-9 THC per serving to ensure responsible consumption and public safety [4][6]. - Tilray Brands opposes any bans on hemp-derived THC products, stating that such measures would drive products underground rather than eliminate them [4]. Consumer Demand - A McLaughlin & Associates poll indicates that over 70% of Americans favor the legality and availability of hemp products, highlighting strong public demand for fair regulation [5]. Commitment to Innovation - Although hemp-derived THC products currently do not significantly contribute to Tilray's revenue, the company is dedicated to collaborating with lawmakers and enhancing its hemp-wellness offerings [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $85.6 million, representing a 7% year-over-year increase and a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding the midpoint of guidance [32] - Contribution XTAC totaled $53 million, up 12% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, reaching the high end of guidance [32] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $16 million, growing 9% year-over-year and 42% sequentially, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30% [38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Excluding political ad spend from the prior year, Q3 revenue increased 19% year-over-year, and contribution XTAC increased 22% year-over-year on a pro forma basis [33] - CTV accounted for a record high of 46% of total platform spend, with nearly half running through Direct Access premium publishers [36] - Revenue attached to the Iris ID more than doubled sequentially versus the prior quarter, indicating strong demand for contextually targeted campaigns [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Spend across emerging digital channels, including CTV, streaming audio, and digital out of home, represented approximately 56% of total platform spend in Q3, up from 50% in 2024 and 43% in 2023 [36] - The majority of leading streaming services have joined the Direct Access program, enhancing the platform's capabilities [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its dominant position in the mid-market while expanding up-market with major U.S. advertisers and down-market to performance advertisers [23] - The launch of AI Decisioning is expected to enhance the self-service capabilities of the platform, making it more accessible for SMBs and direct-to-consumer e-commerce companies [29] - The partnership with Molson Coors highlights the company's ability to attract major U.S. brands seeking data-driven campaigns [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying performance of the business, with expectations for accelerating growth in 2026 driven by new client onboarding [44] - The company anticipates significant EBITDA margin expansion in 2026, supported by improved operational efficiencies and the integration of recent acquisitions [44] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with $161 million in cash and cash equivalents, no debt, and full access to a $75 million credit facility [39] - The share repurchase program has returned $59.6 million to shareholders since its launch, signaling confidence in long-term value [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the difference with the third AI product launching in Q4? - Management indicated that AI Decisioning will complete the Viant AI suite, enabling full self-driving capabilities for ad campaigns, reducing the need for human intervention [51][52] Question: Is the 600 basis point headwind from a merger client a one-time issue? - Management clarified that the headwind is primarily from a seasonal client and will not significantly impact other quarters [48] Question: How does the company plan to grow awareness among SMB advertisers? - The strategy includes channel partnerships and a self-service sign-up flow to attract direct-to-consumer e-commerce companies [58][60] Question: What is the expected incremental spend from the Molson Coors partnership? - While specific figures cannot be disclosed, management expects the partnership to scale over time, contributing to the $250 million incremental spend pipeline [62] Question: How does the competitive environment look with companies like Amazon and Google? - Management noted that competition remains consistent, with Viant's objective buy-side approach differentiating it from competitors who have conflicts of interest [64][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $85.6 million, representing a 7% year-over-year increase and a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding the midpoint of guidance [29] - Contribution XTAC totaled $53 million, up 12% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, reaching the high end of guidance [29] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $16 million, growing 9% year-over-year and 42% sequentially, exceeding guidance by 7% [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Excluding political ad spend, revenue increased 19% year-over-year, and contribution XTAC increased 22% year-over-year on a pro forma basis [30] - CTV ad spend reached a record high, accounting for 46% of total platform spend, with nearly half running through Direct Access premium publishers [32] - Contribution XTAC across the top 100 customers grew by 18% year-over-year on a trailing 12-month basis [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Spend across emerging digital channels, including CTV and streaming audio, represented approximately 56% of total platform spend in Q3, up from 50% in 2024 and 43% in 2023 [32] - The majority of leading streaming services have joined the Direct Access program, enhancing CTV ad spend [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its dominant position in the mid-market while expanding up-market with major U.S. advertisers and down-market to performance advertisers [21] - The launch of AI Decisioning is expected to enhance the self-service capabilities of the platform, targeting SMBs and direct-to-consumer e-commerce companies [25][44] - The partnership with Molson Coors highlights the company's ability to attract major U.S. brands seeking data-driven campaigns [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying performance, with expectations for accelerating growth in 2026 driven by new client onboarding [40] - The company anticipates easing headwinds from political ad spend starting in Q1 2026, which will positively impact revenue growth [39] - Management noted that the competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on objectivity and independence in advertising solutions [51][53] Other Important Information - Non-GAAP net income for Q3 was $11.2 million, down 9% year-over-year, primarily due to lower interest income and higher income tax expense [35] - The company ended the quarter with $161 million in cash and cash equivalents and no debt, indicating a strong financial position [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the significance of the third AI product being launched? - The third AI product, AI Decisioning, will complete the Viant AI suite, enabling full automation of ad campaigns, making it easier for advertisers to achieve their goals [44] Question: How will the merger client impact guidance? - The merger client was seasonal, and the significant impact was primarily in Q3, with minimal ongoing headwind expected [43] Question: Has competition increased from Amazon DSP? - No significant increase in competition was noted, with Amazon's DSP being a small portion of their revenue [45] Question: How will the company grow awareness among SMB advertisers? - The company plans to leverage channel partnerships and focus on demonstrating true performance to attract SMBs [46] Question: What is the expected incremental spend from the Molson Coors partnership? - While specific figures cannot be disclosed, the partnership is expected to scale significantly over the years [49] Question: How does the company view the competitive environment? - The competitive landscape is perceived as narrowing, with a focus on objectivity and serving the interests of marketers [51][53]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are experiencing a robust rally, primarily driven by optimism regarding a resolution to the government shutdown [1][2] - Major indexes, including the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, are showing significant gains, with the Nasdaq up approximately 2.1% [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector is leading the rally, particularly in areas related to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and cybersecurity [3] - Cyclical sectors such as information technology, communications services, industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary are favored by analysts, indicating a return of risk appetite [3] - Metal stocks are experiencing a surge due to strong demand, while the utilities sector may gain favor as interest rates are expected to decline [3] Corporate Developments - Palantir Technologies is a standout performer, surging approximately 6.7% after a significant drop last week, with a year-to-date gain of about 150% [12] - Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon.com are also seeing substantial gains, with Nvidia up 3.7% and both Alphabet and Amazon rising 3% each [12] - Tesla shares are down 3.7% following the approval of Elon Musk's compensation package [12] - Tyson Foods reported stronger-than-expected quarterly profits, leading to a 1.5% increase in shares despite facing rising beef costs [12] - Plug Power Inc. plans to generate over $275 million in liquidity through asset monetization and collaboration with a U.S. data center developer [12] Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting on December 9-10 is anticipated, with a 63% chance of another rate cut being priced in by financial markets [5] - Key economic data releases are scheduled for later in November, which could provide insights into the economy's health once the government reopens [6]

Core Insights - Consumer spending rebounded in October after a decline in September, indicating a strong start for the retail sector in Q4 [2][6] - The retail monitor, based on credit card spending data, showed a 0.6% increase in retail sales excluding auto and gas, compared to a 0.7% decline in September [2][3] - Year-over-year growth rates for core retail sales decreased slightly, with a drop from 5.4% to 5% [3] Sector Performance - Most retail sectors experienced growth, with digital products leading at a 2% increase, followed by clothing and accessories at 1.4% [4] - Restaurants, beverages, and health and personal care sectors also performed well, while building and garden supplies saw a decline of 0.8% [5] Economic Context - Consumer spending remains robust, supported by wage growth exceeding inflation, low unemployment rates, and positive wealth effects from strong stock market performance [6] - Despite mixed economic data, October's performance is seen as a positive indicator for the upcoming holiday season, although historical correlations between October gains and holiday sales are weak [6] Challenges Ahead - Key concerns for the retail sector include the impact of goods inflation, tariffs, and early signs of a cooling job market on holiday shopping [7] - The ongoing government shutdown has affected the release of critical economic data, creating uncertainty about the accuracy and timeliness of upcoming reports [9][10]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are expected to open strongly due to improved investor sentiment following a bipartisan deal in the Senate to end the government shutdown [1][3] - Major index futures are showing gains, with S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.7% to 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.2% to 1.5%, and Dow Jones futures up 0.1% to 0.4% [2][4] Economic Impact - The government shutdown, lasting 40 days, has created significant economic uncertainty, delaying crucial data releases and impacting various sectors [3] - The resolution of the shutdown is anticipated to lead to the release of delayed economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), initial jobless claims, retail sales, and Producer Price Index (PPI) for October [5] Company Developments - Nvidia (NVDA) saw a 7% stock decline last week but is expected to recover as optimism returns to the tech sector, with CEO Jensen Huang requesting TSMC to increase chip supplies for AI technology [7] - Apple (AAPL) recently surpassed a $4 trillion market value, indicating the strength of major tech players [11] - Pfizer (PFE) has agreed to acquire Metsera for up to $10 billion, winning a bidding war against Novo Nordisk [11] - CoreWeave ([CRWV]) is set to release earnings today, with shares having more than doubled since going public, driven by deals with Nvidia and Meta [11] - Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) unveiled a new Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) model, part of its strategy for carbon neutrality [11] - Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) are nearing a deal with merchants that could reshape the credit card rewards landscape [11] - UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) may face operational impacts due to the FAA grounding MD-11 planes following a recent crash [11] - Diageo (DEO) appointed former Tesco boss Dave Lewis as its new chief [11] - Nomad Foods (NOMD) reported lower revenue and earnings in Q3 2025, citing ongoing market headwinds [11] Upcoming Events - The week includes important economic updates, such as the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Eurozone's Q3 GDP [6] - High-profile earnings reports are expected from companies like Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Walt Disney (DIS), and others [8]

Core Insights - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals reported third-quarter 2025 financial results that exceeded analyst expectations, leading to a 4.9% increase in share price during the afternoon session [1][2] - The company achieved revenue of $191.8 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $184.5 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.93, exceeding expectations of $0.83 [2] - Despite flat revenue compared to the previous year and a decline in operating margins, the market reacted positively due to the company's ability to outperform forecasts [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter was $191.8 million, which is flat year-over-year but above Wall Street's estimate [2] - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.93, beating the expected $0.83 [2] - The stock price settled at $24.95, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous close after an initial surge [2] Market Reaction - Amphastar's shares have shown volatility, with 12 movements greater than 5% in the past year, indicating that the market finds the recent news significant but not fundamentally altering its view of the company [4] - The stock has decreased by 31.4% since the beginning of the year and is trading 48.6% below its 52-week high of $48.57 from November 2024 [6] - An investment of $1,000 in Amphastar shares five years ago would now be worth $1,312, reflecting a modest growth over the period [6]

Core Insights - The analysis focuses on future-oriented industries where culture, technology, and valuation intersect, particularly in gaming and digital assets [1] Group 1: Industry Focus - The sectors covered include gaming publishers such as Nintendo, Capcom, and Square Enix, which are pivotal in reshaping global entertainment [1] - Digital assets like XRP, Bitcoin, and Ethereum are highlighted as transformative forces in global finance [1] Group 2: Consumer Brands - Selected consumer brands such as Monster Beverage, Sprouts, and Macy's are analyzed, emphasizing the importance of brand and consumer behavior in driving long-term value [1] Group 3: Analytical Approach - The analytical methodology combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and relative valuation with macroeconomic and narrative context, aiding in identifying early investment opportunities [1]