江南春 分众传媒董事长 黑马导师 整个社会都在喊没钱了，为什么这些公司反而年赚百亿？ 日本"失落30年的秘密"，就在这八个行业里面。 低欲望社会，不等于没机会。 消费分级，需求迁移，才是最大的商业机遇。 当人们不买房子，不追奢侈品的时候，钱都流向了哪里？ 第一，二手经济 日本二手奢侈品市场，以大黑屋为代表，收入暴涨。 在中国，红布林、胖虎，同样业务大涨。 买不起爱马仕、LV，但抢着买二手。 年轻人不太生孩子，但可以给猫买高级的罐头。 日本 Inaba靠猫粮上市，中国乖宝（中宠）股价强劲。 诚实一口、凯锐思、疯狂小狗、伯纳天纯、比瑞吉、网易严选、卫仕等宠物品牌，销量持续攀升。 宠物不仅是主粮零食营养品，以新瑞鹏为代表的宠物医院，以泰淘气为代表的宠物益生菌、保健品，都 大幅飙升。 宠物开支逆势增长，"毛孩子"才是真刚需。 第三，成人护理 日本尤妮佳，靠纸尿裤翻身。 日本成人纸尿裤市场规模，突破100亿美元。 但在日常消费品领域，闲鱼日活破亿，转转的GMV 也大幅飙升。 闲置不是垃圾，是流动的黄金。 第二，宠物经济 第四，健康食品饮料 由于人口结构改变和健康意识崛起，让日本三得利无糖茶、明治无糖酸奶，以及众多功能饮 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing involvement of young people in the transmission and preservation of intangible cultural heritage (ICH) in China, with over 200 million new ICH-related videos created in 2024 and a 95% increase in creators born after 2000 [1][12] - The support from Chinese brands is crucial in revitalizing ICH skills, exemplified by the "charging" plan initiated by Yuanqi Forest, which aims to raise awareness and appreciation of ICH among younger generations [3][12] Group 1: Youth Engagement in ICH - In 2024, the number of creators born after 2000 engaged in ICH has surged by 95%, while the number of inheritors under 30 has increased by 24% [1] - The annual sales volume of ICH products has surpassed 6.5 billion units, indicating a growing market for these cultural items [1] Group 2: Brand Initiatives and Cultural Events - Yuanqi Forest's initiative included a large-scale performance of the Ansai Waist Drum, which involved 1,600 participants and aimed to showcase the power of ICH [3][6] - The performance was a culmination of four months of preparation, highlighting the community's enthusiasm and commitment to preserving their cultural heritage [6] Group 3: Challenges in ICH Preservation - The article discusses the challenges faced in learning and performing traditional arts, such as the Ansai Waist Drum and the Huohuo performance, which require significant physical and technical skills [5][10] - The Huohuo performance, which has a history of over 120 years, faces risks and difficulties in transmission due to its dangerous nature and the loss of traditional performance tools [10][11] Group 4: Digital Platforms and Cultural Promotion - Social media platforms like Douyin and Bilibili have become vital for young creators to promote ICH, with many achieving millions of views on their content [12][13] - The "charging" plan by Yuanqi Forest has led to significant engagement, with ICH-related content reaching over 100 million views across various platforms [12] Group 5: Economic Impact of ICH - The report indicates a 187% year-on-year increase in the number of offline ICH-related businesses on Douyin, with group purchase orders rising by 173% [12] - The involvement of young creators and brands is transforming ICH from being forgotten to being celebrated, thus enhancing its market value and cultural significance [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the soft drink industry [1] Core Insights - The Chinese soft drink industry has evolved through three main stages: the dominance of carbonated drinks, diversified growth, and structural growth driven by the rise of the middle class and differentiated consumer demands [11][23] - Leading companies in the soft drink sector are innovating and creating billion-yuan products, establishing competitive advantages through product iteration and market penetration strategies [30][33] - The future of the industry is expected to focus on health and functionality, with high growth potential in categories such as bottled water, sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and emerging segments like electrolyte water and coconut water [36][41] Summary by Sections Historical Overview - The soft drink industry in China has transitioned from a carbonated drink-dominated phase (before the mid-1990s) to a diversified growth phase (1995-2014), and currently to a structural growth phase (2015-present) [11][23] - The market saw significant growth in various segments, with carbonated drinks holding over 50% market share until the mid-1990s, followed by a surge in demand for juices, tea drinks, bottled water, and plant-based beverages [11][18] Current Landscape - The competition in the soft drink industry is intense, with traditional leaders maintaining advantages while new entrants are breaking through in emerging segments [30] - Key segments such as bottled water, tea drinks, and energy drinks are expected to sustain good growth rates, with the top three companies in each segment holding significant market shares [32][33] Future Outlook - The report identifies health and functionality as the main trends driving the industry forward, with specific growth opportunities in bottled water, sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and new categories like electrolyte water and coconut water [36][41] - The bottled water segment is projected to see an increase in packaging rates from 14.4% in 2023 to 18.9% by 2028, indicating a long-term growth trajectory [41][60] - The sugar-free tea segment is expected to grow significantly, with current penetration rates still low compared to markets like Japan [66][70] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, while also keeping an eye on China Resources Beverage and IFBH, as they are well-positioned in high-growth segments [1][36]

Core Viewpoint - Uni-President China reported a strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 17.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit of 1.287 billion yuan, up 33.2%. This marks the first double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit since 2020. However, the beverage segment, which accounts for over 60% of revenue, is experiencing a slowdown in growth, raising concerns about future performance [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Uni-President China's gross profit margin was 34.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The gross profit margins for 2022 to 2024 were 29%, 30.5%, and 32.5% respectively [3]. - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows food and beverage segments contributing 31.5% and 63.1% respectively, with food revenue at 5.382 billion yuan (up 8.8%) and beverage revenue at 10.788 billion yuan (up 7.6%) [3]. Beverage Segment Challenges - The beverage segment's growth has been declining, with year-on-year increases of 11.3%, 8.4%, and 8.2% from 2022 to 2024. The current year's growth rate has further decreased to 7.6% [3][5]. - The tea beverage category, which is a key part of the beverage business, generated 5.068 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 47% of beverage sales. However, its growth rate has slowed to 9.1%, down from 11.8% in the same period last year [4][5]. Market Competition - The beverage market is facing intense competition, with price wars and the rise of large packaging products. This has fragmented the market, making it challenging for established brands like Uni-President to maintain their market share [4]. - Competitors such as Nongfu Spring and new entrants like Yuanqi Forest are gaining market share through innovative products and aggressive marketing strategies, putting pressure on Uni-President's traditional offerings [7][9]. Product Innovation and Strategy - Uni-President has been criticized for lagging in product innovation compared to competitors. While it has introduced products like "Cha Li Wang" in the sugar-free tea segment, it has not achieved significant market presence [8][9]. - The company needs to establish a competitive edge by enhancing its product development and responding to market trends, particularly in the growing segments of sugar-free and large packaging beverages [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" topic has gained significant attention from regulatory bodies and industry players, emphasizing the need for innovation in emerging fields and transformation in traditional sectors to avoid low-level homogeneous competition [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of imitation products, often referred to as "shanzhai," has become a focal point, misleading consumers and disrupting market order [2] - Consumers have shared experiences of mistakenly purchasing imitation products due to similar packaging, highlighting the prevalence of pixel-level imitation in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector [1] - Legal actions against imitation products are increasing, with courts imposing significant penalties to protect innovation and deter infringement [2] Group 2: Brand Protection and Legal Actions - The case of Yuanqi Forest's "Alien Electrolyte Water" illustrates the swift legal response to trademark infringement, with the court ruling in favor of Yuanqi Forest and awarding damages of 5 million yuan [2] - The judicial system is sending a clear message about the importance of protecting original brands and punishing counterfeiters [2] Group 3: Innovation and Quality - Original brands that focus on quality and technological innovation are gaining consumer trust, while imitators struggle to replicate the intrinsic value of these products [4][5] - Companies like Yuanqi Forest and Dali Food Group have successfully differentiated themselves through innovation, leading to a positive market reputation [5] - The emphasis on quality control and unique value propositions is essential for companies to thrive in a competitive landscape [5]

Core Insights - The core competition in beverage innovation is not merely about taste or functional segmentation, but about returning to the product itself and ensuring quality [1][13] - The market for traditional Chinese health drinks, particularly the "Good Zizai" series, has seen significant growth, with market size increasing from 0.1 billion in 2018 to 4.5 billion in 2023 [1][2] - The rise of health-conscious consumers has led to a decline in sugary drinks, with the no-sugar beverage market experiencing rapid growth [2][3] Company Overview - Yuanqi Forest's "Good Zizai" series has quickly gained popularity, selling out within five days of its launch on Tmall and achieving top rankings on major e-commerce platforms [2][12] - The company emphasizes the importance of product quality and consumer feedback, aiming to create products that resonate with traditional tastes while meeting modern health demands [3][11] - The brand has established a red bean planting base in Heilongjiang to ensure the quality of its raw materials, reflecting a commitment to product integrity [10] Market Dynamics - The market for Chinese health drinks is becoming increasingly competitive, with a significant number of brands entering the space, leading to issues of homogenization and price wars [7][8] - The average price of mainstream health drinks has dropped significantly, with some brands offering promotions that reduce prices to as low as 2.9 yuan per bottle [8] - The market structure is evolving, with a bifurcation between low-sugar basic products and high-margin functional products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [7][9] Consumer Trends - The target demographic for "Good Zizai" includes a substantial portion of young consumers, with those aged 18-36 making up nearly 70% of the market [6][8] - High repurchase rates indicate a strong demand for health drinks, with "Good Zizai" achieving a market share of 58.6% in 2024 [8][12] - The trend towards health-conscious consumption reflects a broader shift in consumer behavior, moving from novelty to daily necessity [12][13]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall performance of the drama and variety show advertising market in H1 2025 shows a significant decline, with drama advertising down 26% year-on-year and variety show advertising down 10% [10][12][19] - The total number of drama series launched in H1 2025 was 123, a decrease of 8.9% compared to 135 in the same period last year [10] - The total number of variety shows decreased to 282 from 317 year-on-year, indicating a contraction in the market [19] Group 2: Key Performers - Despite the overall decline, top projects like Youku's "Cang Hai Chuan" secured over 60 brand partnerships, leading the drama advertising market [6] - The crime/suspense genre saw a remarkable increase, with the number of such shows rising by 89% and advertising partnerships increasing by 29% [15] - The new variety show "CCTV's Central Good Goods Shopping Party" achieved an impressive 108 brand partnerships, showcasing the strong sponsorship capability of new variety shows [16][17] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is increasingly characterized by a "winner-takes-all" effect, where only top-tier projects are able to secure significant advertising deals, leaving mid-tier projects struggling [6][21] - The overall sentiment among brand clients towards investing in drama series is waning, reflecting a broader trend of reduced enthusiasm for advertising in this sector [12][21] - The industry is advised to adopt more innovative marketing strategies to enhance brand engagement and drive commercial growth, particularly in the crime/suspense genre [15][21]

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has increased. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend, with pet food and healthcare products seeing significant sales growth [10][12][13]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a strong potential for similar products in China, particularly as the population ages [14][15][16]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the success of sugar-free products and functional beverages in both Japan and China [19][20]. - **Beauty Economy**: Despite economic constraints, demand for beauty products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices remains high, indicating a persistent consumer interest in personal care [22]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in both Japan and China seeing significant sales growth, as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic challenges [22]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and unique consumer goods, are gaining popularity, reflecting a shift in consumer spending habits [23][24]. - **Lazy Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is increasing as younger generations prioritize time-saving solutions [27][28][29]. Group 2: Market Trends - **Consumer Behavior**: The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire economy, there are opportunities for growth in sectors that cater to changing consumer needs and preferences [31]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies that can identify and invest in these counter-cyclical sectors are likely to emerge as winners in the current economic climate [31].

Core Insights - The beverage market is experiencing intense competition, particularly in the "summer economy" segment, with both traditional and emerging brands vying for market share [1][2] - The rise of Chinese herbal drinks is becoming a significant trend, with established brands and new entrants launching products that cater to health-conscious consumers [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The beverage sector is seeing an influx of new players, particularly in the Chinese herbal drink category, which is gaining traction among consumers seeking health benefits [2][3] - Major brands like Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring are expanding their product lines to include large packaging options, which are becoming increasingly popular on store shelves [1][4][5] Group 2: Product Trends - Chinese herbal drinks are emerging as a new market segment, with products like Yuanqi Forest's red bean and barley water and other herbal beverages gaining shelf space in supermarkets [1][2] - The market for herbal drinks is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach 30 billion yuan in 2024 and potentially exceed 100 billion yuan by 2028 [2] Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Companies are adopting differentiated strategies by introducing large packaging products to attract consumers looking for value, especially in social settings [4][6] - The trend towards large packaging is not only appealing to consumers but also offers logistical advantages for companies, reducing costs associated with packaging and distribution [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The beverage industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with a focus on health and functionality driving product development [6] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Guozi Shule are investing in innovation and expanding their production capabilities to meet diverse consumer demands [6]

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry is experiencing a trend towards larger packaging sizes, with companies like Dongfang Shuye launching 1.5L bottles to meet consumer demand for value and convenience [6][9][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - Dongfang Shuye has introduced a 1.5L bottle, which offers the equivalent of three 500ml bottles at a competitive price, reflecting a broader industry trend towards larger beverage sizes [6][9]. - The market for large-sized beverages has grown significantly, with sales of 600-1249ml beverages increasing from 6.4% in 2019 to 11.3% in 2023 [10]. - Major beverage brands are expanding their offerings to include larger sizes, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Hema introducing 2L options, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance of large packaging [10][12]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring larger bottles for family gatherings and bulk purchases, as a 1.5L or 2L bottle can satisfy the needs of an average family of 2.6 people [9]. - The trend towards larger packaging is driven by the perception of better value, with consumers noting that larger bottles often provide a lower cost per milliliter compared to smaller sizes [8][12]. - However, there is a growing concern among consumers in urban areas about the practicality of large bottles, with some expressing worries about waste and storage after opening [19][21]. Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - Beverage companies are using larger packaging as a strategy to mitigate rising costs from raw materials, packaging, and logistics, as larger bottles have a lower cost per unit of packaging [12][13]. - The cost of sugar and PET (a key material for bottles) has risen significantly, prompting companies to increase prices for smaller sizes while promoting larger bottles as a cost-effective alternative [12][13]. - The logistics efficiency of larger bottles reduces transportation costs, as fewer trips are needed to move the same volume of product compared to smaller bottles [13][14]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The introduction of larger bottles is seen as a strategy by leading beverage companies to dominate the market and squeeze out smaller competitors, particularly in lower-tier cities [14][17]. - Major brands are leveraging their scale to offer lower prices on large bottles, making it difficult for smaller brands to compete on price [14][17]. - The market share of leading beverage companies has increased, with their production accounting for 55% of the total market in 2023, indicating a consolidation trend in the industry [17].