证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；食品安全问题；市场竞争加剧。 2025 年 08 月 21 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/8/21 2024/12/20 2025/4/20 2025/8/19 食品饮料 沪深300 软饮料行业深度：后来居上，中国软饮料巨 头的平台化之路 相关研究 《硬折扣系列报告：机遇窗口期，百 舸争流》 2025-07-24 《2025Q2 基金食品饮料持仓分析：持 仓处于低位，白酒明显减配》 2025-07-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 34 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 观过往：历经三大阶段，品类多元化共振。纵向复盘中国软饮料行业的 发展，大致经历了碳酸饮料主导、多元化增长、结构性增长 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has increased. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend, with pet food and healthcare products seeing significant sales growth [10][12][13]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a strong potential for similar products in China, particularly as the population ages [14][15][16]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the success of sugar-free products and functional beverages in both Japan and China [19][20]. - **Beauty Economy**: Despite economic constraints, demand for beauty products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices remains high, indicating a persistent consumer interest in personal care [22]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in both Japan and China seeing significant sales growth, as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic challenges [22]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and unique consumer goods, are gaining popularity, reflecting a shift in consumer spending habits [23][24]. - **Lazy Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is increasing as younger generations prioritize time-saving solutions [27][28][29]. Group 2: Market Trends - **Consumer Behavior**: The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire economy, there are opportunities for growth in sectors that cater to changing consumer needs and preferences [31]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies that can identify and invest in these counter-cyclical sectors are likely to emerge as winners in the current economic climate [31].

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry is experiencing a trend towards larger packaging sizes, with companies like Dongfang Shuye launching 1.5L bottles to meet consumer demand for value and convenience [6][9][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - Dongfang Shuye has introduced a 1.5L bottle, which offers the equivalent of three 500ml bottles at a competitive price, reflecting a broader industry trend towards larger beverage sizes [6][9]. - The market for large-sized beverages has grown significantly, with sales of 600-1249ml beverages increasing from 6.4% in 2019 to 11.3% in 2023 [10]. - Major beverage brands are expanding their offerings to include larger sizes, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Hema introducing 2L options, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance of large packaging [10][12]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring larger bottles for family gatherings and bulk purchases, as a 1.5L or 2L bottle can satisfy the needs of an average family of 2.6 people [9]. - The trend towards larger packaging is driven by the perception of better value, with consumers noting that larger bottles often provide a lower cost per milliliter compared to smaller sizes [8][12]. - However, there is a growing concern among consumers in urban areas about the practicality of large bottles, with some expressing worries about waste and storage after opening [19][21]. Group 3: Cost Management Strategies - Beverage companies are using larger packaging as a strategy to mitigate rising costs from raw materials, packaging, and logistics, as larger bottles have a lower cost per unit of packaging [12][13]. - The cost of sugar and PET (a key material for bottles) has risen significantly, prompting companies to increase prices for smaller sizes while promoting larger bottles as a cost-effective alternative [12][13]. - The logistics efficiency of larger bottles reduces transportation costs, as fewer trips are needed to move the same volume of product compared to smaller bottles [13][14]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The introduction of larger bottles is seen as a strategy by leading beverage companies to dominate the market and squeeze out smaller competitors, particularly in lower-tier cities [14][17]. - Major brands are leveraging their scale to offer lower prices on large bottles, making it difficult for smaller brands to compete on price [14][17]. - The market share of leading beverage companies has increased, with their production accounting for 55% of the total market in 2023, indicating a consolidation trend in the industry [17].

Core Insights - The rise of 1.5L bottles of Dongfang Shuye reflects a broader trend in the beverage industry towards larger packaging, driven by consumer demand for cost-effectiveness and convenience [4][7][8] - Major brands like Yuanqi Forest and Suntory are also launching larger bottle sizes, indicating a shift in market strategy across the industry [4][10] Pricing and Cost Efficiency - The price of a 1.5L bottle of Dongfang Shuye is around 10 yuan, significantly cheaper per milliliter compared to smaller bottles, which enhances its appeal to consumers [4][8] - Larger bottles can reduce packaging costs, with the material cost for a 1.5L bottle being only 15% compared to 22% for a 500ml bottle, allowing companies to maintain profitability despite rising raw material costs [10][12] Market Strategy and Competition - Dongfang Shuye's market share in the unsweetened tea segment exceeds 70%, and the introduction of larger bottles is part of a strategic move to differentiate itself from competitors like Master Kong and Suntory [12][20] - The beverage industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly in the unsweetened tea market, with brands launching similar large-sized products to capture market share [22] Consumer Behavior and Trends - The popularity of large bottles aligns with changing consumer habits, emphasizing family and group consumption rather than individual purchases [16][17] - The rise of outdoor activities and social gatherings has increased the demand for larger, shareable beverage options, making 1.5L bottles more practical for consumers [16][19] Future Outlook - The beverage industry is expected to continue evolving towards larger packaging and more tailored product offerings, with potential for further segmentation in bottle sizes to meet specific consumer needs [19][20] - Companies will need to focus on creating differentiated products that align with consumer lifestyles and preferences to remain competitive in a crowded market [24]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of large bottle beverages, particularly the 1.5L Oriental Leaf tea, is driven by consumer demand for cost-effectiveness and adaptability to various consumption scenarios, reflecting a shift in purchasing habits and lifestyle changes in China [1][16][25]. Summary by Sections Price and Value Proposition - The 1.5L Oriental Leaf tea is priced around 10 yuan, making it a popular choice among consumers seeking value for money, especially compared to smaller 500ml bottles which cost approximately 4.2 yuan each [3][4]. - Large bottle beverages generally offer a price advantage, with costs per 100ml being at least 20% lower than standard packaging [9]. Cost Efficiency for Companies - Companies benefit from large packaging as it reduces the cost of materials; for instance, the packaging cost for a 1.5L bottle is only 15%, compared to 22% for a 500ml bottle [13]. - The shift to larger bottles helps companies mitigate rising costs from raw materials and logistics, as seen in the reports from major brands like Nongfu Spring [11]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The trend towards larger bottles aligns with the increasing preference for family and group consumption, moving away from individual servings [18]. - The rise in outdoor activities and social gatherings has led to a higher demand for large bottles, as they are more convenient for sharing [19]. - In office settings, large bottles have become popular, with a 60% repurchase rate, as they serve as a substitute for coffee and promote a healthy lifestyle among young professionals [19]. Strategic Market Positioning - Oriental Leaf's strategy of introducing large bottles is part of a broader market penetration approach, aiming to maintain a competitive edge against rivals like Master Kong and Suntory [13][23]. - The brand has achieved a market share of over 70% in the sugar-free tea segment, indicating a strong position in a growing market [23]. Future Outlook - The beverage industry is expected to continue evolving towards more scenario-based solutions, with potential for further segmentation in bottle sizes to meet specific consumer needs [27]. - The competition in the sugar-free tea market is intensifying, with brands like Suntory launching similar products to directly compete with Oriental Leaf [26].

Group 1: Beverage Market Trends - The bottled beverage market is entering a peak season due to high temperatures, with Nongfu Spring's 1.5L "Oriental Leaf" tea gaining significant consumer attention [2] - In 2024, the beverage sector is projected to see a 7.8% year-on-year increase in total sales across all channels, with offline sales growing by 7.4% and online sales by 11.6% [2] - Health-oriented drinks, particularly ready-to-drink tea and functional beverages, are leading the growth with increases of 16.6% and 12.1% respectively, while carbonated drinks have seen a decline of 0.8% [2] Group 2: Sugar-Free Tea Market Dynamics - The sugar-free tea segment, once a market leader, is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with only a few brands like Nongfu Spring and Guozi Shule maintaining stable sales increases [3] - The market share of sugar-free tea has seen significant growth from 16% in January 2022 to 32% by December 2023, indicating a strong upward trend [7] - However, by 2025, the growth momentum for sugar-free tea has weakened, with negative year-on-year growth observed in March 2025 [10] Group 3: Electrolyte Drinks Emergence - The electrolyte drink market is witnessing a new wave of growth, with a 18% increase in new product launches from 2023 to 2024, and an annual growth rate of 11% for sports drinks [9] - The market for functional beverages in China reached 147.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.08% [9] - Electrolyte drinks are increasingly popular, especially among the growing sports population in China, which exceeds 500 million [10] Group 4: Sugar Tea Market Resurgence - The sugar tea market is experiencing a resurgence, with brands like Master Kong, Uni-President, and Nongfu Spring leading in market share and sales growth [15] - The market for sugar tea remains robust, with significant sales increases noted among brands like Yuanqi Forest and Wahaha, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [16] - Despite the rise of sugar-free tea, sugar tea still holds a dominant position, accounting for nearly 70% of the ready-to-drink tea market as of March 2025 [19] Group 5: Market Outlook and Consumer Behavior - The beverage market is at a turning point, with established consumer bases for both sugar and sugar-free tea, leading to competition for market share in overlapping consumer segments [20] - Efficiency in operations and pricing strategies will be crucial for brands to maintain their market positions amid increasing competition and market saturation [20] - The evolving consumer preferences suggest that a balanced approach between sugar and sugar-free options may be necessary for brands to thrive in the current market landscape [20]

Core Insights - The electrolyte beverage market in China is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size of 18 billion yuan by 2025, driven by a shift in consumer preferences from traditional sports drinks to electrolyte water [2][3] - The recent high temperatures across China have further boosted the popularity of electrolyte water, positioning it as a go-to hydration solution for consumers [3] - Sales data from various brands indicate significant growth in the electrolyte beverage segment, with some brands experiencing sales increases of over 150% year-on-year [3][4] Market Trends - A total of 59 new electrolyte products were launched in China from 2022 to 2025, indicating a growing interest in this category [2] - 45% of consumers reported purchasing more health-oriented products compared to the previous year, with sales of health-focused beverages projected to grow by 26% in 2024 [3] - Brands like Yuanqi Forest and Dongpeng Beverage have reported substantial revenue growth, with Yuanqi Forest's Alien electrolyte water surpassing 2.3 billion yuan in sales, a 152% increase [3][4] Competitive Landscape - The electrolyte water market is becoming increasingly competitive, with many brands entering the space and offering similar products, leading to a rise in product homogeneity [4][5] - Common product features include similar packaging designs, flavors, and ingredient compositions, which has intensified price competition among brands [4][5] - Some brands are resorting to aggressive pricing strategies, including discounts and promotions, to capture market share, with prices dropping below 2.5 yuan per bottle [5] Regulatory Environment - There is currently no unified national standard for electrolyte beverages in China, leading to significant variations in electrolyte content across products [5] - Existing standards are non-mandatory and primarily reference guidelines for sports drinks, which may not adequately address the specific needs of electrolyte beverages [5]

Core Insights - The electrolyte beverage market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size of 18 billion yuan by 2025, driven by changing consumer preferences towards health-oriented products [2][3] - The trend of electrolyte water is shifting from a niche market for athletes to a mainstream product for everyday consumers, particularly among young people and in urban areas [3][4] Market Trends - In 2024, 45% of consumers reported purchasing more health-oriented products compared to the previous year, with sales of health-focused beverages increasing by 26% [2] - Notable sales growth in electrolyte water brands includes a 152% increase for Yuanqi Forest's Alien Electrolyte Water, reaching 2.3 billion yuan, and a 280.37% increase for Dongpeng Beverage's "Brew Water" brand, achieving 1.495 billion yuan in revenue [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly integrating electrolyte water into various daily activities, such as outdoor events, office settings, and social gatherings, due to its perceived health benefits [3][4] - Social media trends are promoting innovative ways to consume electrolyte water, appealing to diverse demographics including office workers and students [4] Product Development - The market has seen the introduction of at least 14 new electrolyte water products in the past six months, indicating a rapid expansion and increasing competition among brands [4][5] - Many brands are adopting similar packaging and flavor profiles, leading to a rise in product homogeneity and intensifying competition [4][5] Pricing Strategies - A price war is emerging in the electrolyte water market, with brands employing discount strategies such as buy-one-get-one-free offers and prices dropping below 2.5 yuan per bottle [5] - The lack of a unified national standard for electrolyte beverages has resulted in significant variations in electrolyte content across products, complicating consumer choices [5]

Core Insights - Yang Hanshen, a 20-year-old center, was selected 16th overall by the Portland Trail Blazers, marking a new record for Chinese players in the NBA draft and initiating a significant rise in his commercial value [1][2] Group 1: Commercial Value Development - The announcement of Yang Hanshen's selection was met with immediate commercial responses, including endorsements from brands like Alien Electrolyte Water and Li Ning, reminiscent of the marketing strategies used during Yao Ming's entry into the NBA [2][3] - Yang Hanshen had already signed a five-year contract with Li Ning before entering the NBA, and he also established a partnership with Alien Electrolyte Water in March 2025, indicating a faster commercial growth trajectory compared to previous Chinese players [3][6] - His performance in the CBA, averaging 16.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game, has drawn comparisons to Yao Ming's rookie season, enhancing his marketability [3][9] Group 2: Market Potential and Brand Strategy - The entry of Alien Electrolyte Water as a sponsor highlights the brand's understanding of leveraging NBA visibility, targeting a younger consumer demographic that aligns with Yang Hanshen's image as a "00s star" [6][9] - Yang Hanshen's commercial potential is vast, with opportunities in sectors like automotive, finance, and technology, similar to the diverse endorsements enjoyed by Yao Ming and Yi Jianlian [6][9] - The increasing interest in NBA among Chinese audiences, with 90% of adult basketball viewers watching the league, presents a lucrative market for brands seeking to capitalize on sports IP, with the sports marketing market in China projected to reach 280 billion yuan by 2025 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of Yang Hanshen as the 16th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft represents a significant milestone for Chinese basketball, potentially revitalizing the NBA's influence in China and providing new commercial opportunities for both the player and the league [1][2][16]. Group 1: Player Profile and Significance - Yang Hanshen is the first Chinese player selected in the NBA since 2016 and the ninth overall, marking a notable achievement for Chinese basketball [2]. - His selection at the 16th position is the third highest for a Chinese player, following Yao Ming and Yi Jianlian [2]. - Yang aims to carve out his own identity in the NBA, aspiring to improve his skills while respecting the legacy of Yao Ming [5]. Group 2: Contract and Financial Aspects - Yang's contract with the Portland Trail Blazers is structured as a "2+1+1" deal, totaling $21.39 million over four years, with salaries increasing from $4.42 million in the 2025-26 season to $7.46 million in the 2028-29 season [6]. - The rising salary trends in the NBA are evident, with the current rookie contracts significantly higher than those from previous years, such as Yao Ming's $18 million contract in 2002 [7]. Group 3: Commercial Value and Market Impact - Yang's endorsement with Li Ning marks a significant partnership, as it is the first time a Chinese sports brand has signed a potential NBA first-round pick [11]. - Following Yang's selection, Li Ning's stock surged by 5%, indicating a positive market reaction to his NBA entry [12]. - Yang's commercial potential is expected to exceed $10 million, reflecting the lucrative opportunities available to NBA players in China [15]. - The demand for Yang's jersey in China has reportedly surpassed that of Damian Lillard during his peak, highlighting the immediate commercial interest [17]. Group 4: Broader Market Implications - Yang's entry into the NBA could serve as a "golden key" for the Portland Trail Blazers to tap into the vast Chinese basketball market, which boasts approximately 1.25 billion basketball enthusiasts [18][19]. - The NBA's influence in China has waned since 2016, and Yang's selection may help to rejuvenate the league's presence and commercial viability in the region [16].