Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (ZTO US) - **Industry**: Air Freight & Logistics - **Market Cap**: USD 16,049 million - **Current Share Price**: USD 19.95 - **Target Price**: USD 25.00 (previously USD 22.00) with a 25% upside potential [5][28][30] Key Points and Arguments Pricing Environment - **Price Hikes**: The State Post Bureau (SPB) in Guangdong has mandated local express operators to raise floor prices by up to RMB 0.4 per parcel, setting a minimum price of RMB 1.4 per parcel [2] - **Historical Context**: Previous price hikes in the sector have led to significant market rallies, such as a 48% increase in September 2021 following collective fee increases by Tongda players [3] - **Market Reaction**: ZTO's H-share price has rebounded by 23% since mid-June, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, as the market anticipates positive impacts from the SPB's guidance [3] Financial Performance and Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: Net profits for ZTO are projected to increase by 1-4% from 2025 to 2027, with current estimates 16% above consensus [4] - **2Q25 Preview**: Expected revenue growth of 12% year-over-year, with net profits estimated at RMB 2.7 billion, slightly down from the previous year but 2% ahead of consensus [4][20] - **Volume and Pricing**: Anticipated parcel volume growth of 18% in 2025, with average selling price (ASP) expected to decline by 5% [22] Valuation and Market Position - **Valuation Metrics**: ZTO trades at a forward PE of 11.9x, lower than the average of 14.2x for A-share listed peers, indicating potential undervaluation [31] - **Market Share**: ZTO holds a 19% market share as of 1Q25, with expectations of regaining market share due to improved pricing conditions [31][33] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Include weaker-than-expected volume growth, aggressive price competition, and potential regulatory changes that could increase operational costs [32] Additional Important Information - **Financial Ratios**: Projected ROE of 16.8% in 2025, with a dividend yield expected to rise to 4.6% [8][14] - **Cash Flow**: Positive cash flow from operations projected to increase, supporting a 50% dividend payout ratio from 2025 onwards [22] - **Analyst Ratings**: The recommendation remains a "Buy" with a raised target price reflecting confidence in the company's ability to navigate the evolving market landscape [5][28] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding ZTO Express, highlighting its pricing strategies, financial outlook, market position, and associated risks.

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 魏银科 没有网购却收到取件通知，快递里面是宣传单和儿童口袋画书，打开宣传单一看，是京东、淘宝、美团、抖音联合主办的感恩回馈活 动……近日家住北京的张女士，向记者反映了她遭遇的"快递诈骗"，因为她比较警惕，并未遭受任何损失。 几年前弃用的地址 突然收到快递 收到取件短信后，张女士发现取件地址是家在济南的姐姐所在小区的快递驿站，她以为是姐姐不小心选错了地址。"通知姐姐取件后，发 现收件地址是姐姐5年前租住的地方，因为和现在的住址在同一个小区，这才寄到了同一个快递驿站。"张女士告诉记者，起初她姐姐并 未意识到是诈骗，因为快递里有一本儿童口袋画书，"几年前一起住时，的确用那个地址给孩子买过儿童绘本。" 将口袋书放到一边，张女士的姐姐又拿起一起寄来的信封状的宣传单：信封正面是显眼的"京东27年豪礼大放送"字样，背面"主办单 位"字样下是京东、淘宝、美团和抖音的标志。"看到这里，我姐姐就已经觉得不对了，这几个平台一起主办活动？想象不到！"张女士表 示，等拆开信封，看到里面的内容，姐姐便确定了是"快递诈骗"。 张女士提供的图片显示，单页拆开后，中间是"开奖区"，揭开开奖区，左侧有三个中奖号码，每个号码对 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure - **Key Companies Mentioned**: J&T, ZTO, Yunda, YTO, STO Core Insights - **Market Performance**: J&T, ZTO, Yunda, YTO, and STO have outperformed market indices by 3-15 percentage points since July 10, 2025, likely due to regulatory calls for "anti-involution" [2] - **Pricing Strategies**: - Market pricing hikes are being considered at a regional level to alleviate near-term pressure on franchisees' profits, but limited financial impact is expected on listed companies as pricing adjustments have not occurred at the franchisor level [6] - Most players plan to increase floor market pricing in Yiwu by RMB 0.05-0.1, but no changes are anticipated at the franchisor level, indicating minimal financial impact on listed companies [6] - A possible price hike in Guangdong is being discussed, but regional actions may not lead to nationwide pricing changes [6] - **Market Share Dynamics**: - Ongoing industry consolidation is expected, albeit in a less aggressive manner. Market share leaders ZTO and YTO are preferred due to their higher probabilities of consolidating market share in a competitive environment [6] Financial Valuation and Risks - **YTO Express Group Co Ltd**: - Valuation derived from probability-weighted DCF scenarios: 10% bull case, 80% base case, 10% bear case. Mild probability of unit profit being worse than expected due to price competition [7] - Key assumptions include a WACC of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2% [7] - **ZTO Express**: - Valuation based on a probability-weighted DCF: 15% bull case, 75% base case, 10% bear case. Mild probability of bear case if significant disruptions occur from new entrants [8] - Key assumptions include a WACC of 13.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [9] Risks Identified - **Upside Risks**: - Greater-than-expected market share gains, significant cost reductions, alleviated price competition [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Continued market share loss, intensified industry competition, higher unit costs [12] Additional Notes - **Regulatory Environment**: The focus on "anti-involution" indicates a regulatory push to mitigate over-competition in the industry, which may influence future market dynamics [2] - **Market Sentiment**: Despite a surge in short-term sentiment towards all players, a preference remains for market share leaders ZTO and YTO [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Supply Chain**: The report highlights ongoing supply chain disruptions and the responses from corporates and policymakers to address these issues [1] Key Insights on China’s Export Performance - **Export Resilience**: China's total exports exceeded expectations in June, with shipments to the US finding a "tentative trough" and expected to remain resilient in the second half of 2025 [2] - **Support Factors**: Factors supporting Chinese exports include transshipment to the US, supply chain extension to ASEAN, new demand from emerging markets, and underappreciated competitiveness [2] - **Payback Effect**: The estimated payback effect on exports is around US$32.3 billion, or 0.9% of annual exports, which is considered meaningful but manageable [2] - **Future Outlook**: While trade volatility with the US and EU may increase in Q3 2025, overall resilience in Chinese exports is anticipated for H2 2025 [2] Brazil Railroads and Shipping Insights - **Truckers' Margins**: Data as of July 11 shows truckers' margins dropping by 0.4 percentage points week-over-week, but increasing by 4.3 percentage points over four weeks on average [7] - **Harvesting Progress**: As of early July, 57% of the planted area has been harvested, with corn farmer selling remaining slower than average, while soy is nearly 82% sold for the year [7] - **Logistics Demand Peak**: The moderation in truckers' margins may indicate that the peak logistics demand for corn has been reached, suggesting that future harvesting may not be as effective without increased farmer selling [7] Global Shipping Trends - **Capacity Growth**: A capacity growth of 16% year-over-year is expected in August, compared to 10% in July, indicating increased shipping capacity [14] - **Air Freight Rates**: Air freight rates showed a decline of 2.5% year-over-year in July, compared to a decline of 2.0% in June, reflecting pressure on shipping costs [14] J&T Express in China - **Government Intervention**: The State Post Bureau of China indicated potential government intervention to address "involutionary competition" in the express industry, which may ease pricing pressures for e-commerce parcel players [15] - **Earnings Visibility**: J&T Express, impacted by tough competition in the first half of 2025, may see improved earnings visibility in the second half of 2025 as its strategy balances market share and profitability [15] Additional Considerations - **Analyst Certification and Disclosures**: The report includes important disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest and the objectivity of the research [4][5] - **Investment Ratings**: Citi Research's investment ratings distribution shows 58% of companies rated as Buy, 32% as Hold, and 9% as Sell, with a significant percentage of these companies being investment banking clients [23] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed topics.

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Express** industry, specifically analyzing the performance of major express delivery companies in the Asia Pacific region for **June 2025** [1] Core Insights - **Volume Growth**: - SF Express led the market with a **32% YoY volume growth**, followed by YTO at **19% YoY**. - Both STO and Yunda experienced lower growth rates at **11%** and **7% YoY**, respectively, resulting in a loss of market share of **0.5ppt** and **1.0ppt** [2] - **Revenue Performance**: - SF Express achieved a **14% YoY revenue growth**, outperforming YTO and STO, which recorded **11%** and **10% YoY growth**, respectively. - Yunda's revenue growth slowed significantly to **3% YoY**, down from **9% YoY** for the industry, marking a decline from **7% YoY** in May [3] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - SF's ASP decreased by **13% YoY**, while YTO, Yunda, and STO saw decreases of **7%**, **4%**, and **1%**, respectively. - On a month-over-month basis, SF and STO's ASPs improved by **4%** and **2%**, while YTO and Yunda's ASPs fell to new lows in 2025 [4] Financial Metrics - **June 2025 Financials**: - SF Express: Revenue of **Rmb 19,962 million**, YoY growth of **14.2%**, volume of **1,460 million**, YoY growth of **31.8%**, ASP of **Rmb 13.67** [5] - Yunda: Revenue of **Rmb 4,149 million**, YoY growth of **2.8%**, volume of **2,173 million**, YoY growth of **7.4%**, ASP of **Rmb 1.91** [5] - STO: Revenue of **Rmb 4,341 million**, YoY growth of **10.1%**, volume of **2,184 million**, YoY growth of **11.1%**, ASP of **Rmb 1.99** [5] - YTO: Revenue of **Rmb 5,527 million**, YoY growth of **11.4%**, volume of **2,627 million**, YoY growth of **19.3%**, ASP of **Rmb 2.10** [5] Market Share Dynamics - SF Express's market share increased by **1.1ppt** to **8.7%**, while Yunda's market share decreased by **1.0ppt** to **12.9%**. - STO's market share remained stable at **12.9%**, and YTO's increased by **0.5ppt** to **15.6%** [5] Strategic Insights - SF Express's strong performance is attributed to robust intra-city delivery demand and the implementation of the "Activating Operations" strategy. - The company achieved **10% YoY revenue growth in 1H25**, aligning with its guidance [12] Additional Observations - The report indicates that ZTO and YTO gained a total of **0.7ppt** in market share in **2Q25**, compared to a **0.4ppt** drop in **1Q25**, suggesting a trend of accelerated segment consolidation [12] Conclusion - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant shifts, with SF Express maintaining a strong lead in both volume and revenue growth, while Yunda faces challenges in sustaining its market position. The overall market dynamics indicate a consolidation trend among the major players, which could present both opportunities and risks for investors in the sector.

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on ZTO Express (ZTO US, TP USD22.00) and STO Express (002468 CH, TP RMB14.10), while J&T Express (1519 HK, Hold, TP HKD9.00) is seen as having upside potential [6][10][49]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector in China is expected to benefit from new policy guidance aimed at preventing aggressive price competition, which has previously led to an 8% decline in average revenue per parcel (ARPP) despite a 20% increase in volume [2][10]. - Historical trends indicate that the sector has re-rated positively following government interventions to stabilize pricing, with a notable 48% rally in September 2021 after delivery fee increases [4][10]. - The current consensus has cut ZTO's earnings estimates by 15% due to intensified price competition, resulting in a forward PE multiple of 10.4x, significantly below its historical average of 19.2x, suggesting potential downside protection for the stock [3][10]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The State Post Bureau's recent conference emphasized tighter regulations to curb aggressive pricing strategies, which has already led to a 5-10% increase in share prices for express delivery companies [2][10]. - The report anticipates that if express delivery companies respond to the new policy with price hikes, a sustainable re-rating of the sector could occur [4]. Financial Projections - ZTO is projected to achieve 9% earnings growth by 2025, with a 21% increase in volume, despite an expected 11% decline in ARPP [5]. - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1 percentage point improvement in ARPP could lead to a 3 percentage point increase in net profit growth [5]. Company Ratings and Targets - ZTO Express is highlighted as the domestic leader with a target price of USD22.00, while STO Express is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of RMB14.10, benefiting from potential regulatory interventions [6][10]. - J&T Express is rated as a "Hold" with a target price of HKD9.00, reflecting its position as a laggard in the market but with potential upside as competition eases [6][10].

Core Insights - J&T reported strong operating data for 2Q25, with parcel volume increasing by an average of 24% YoY, primarily driven by a remarkable 66% YoY growth in the Southeast Asia (SEA) market [1][2] - The earnings forecast for 2025E/26E has been revised, with an increase of 18% for 2025E and a slight decrease of 2% for 2026E, reflecting an upward adjustment in parcel volume forecasts despite a minor reduction in pricing assumptions [1] - The target price (TP) has been raised to HK$10 from HK$6.9, indicating a positive outlook for J&T in the Hong Kong market due to its market share gains in the SEA region [1] Southeast Asia Market - The SEA volume surged by 66% YoY to 1.69 billion units, with growth accelerating from 50% in 1Q25, benefiting from strong sales growth from platforms like Temu, Shein, and TikTok [2] - Management believes that J&T has further strengthened its competitive advantage over major peers in terms of parcel volume growth in the SEA market [2] China Market - In China, parcel volume grew by 15% YoY to 5.6 billion units, although the growth rate slowed from 27% in 1Q24 [3] - The largest customer in China is PDD, followed by Douyin and Alibaba, with reverse parcels and individual orders accounting for 7% of total volume [3] - Management expressed a conservative outlook due to uncertainties from intense price competition [3] New Markets - New markets experienced a 24% YoY increase in volume to 89 million units, driven by growth in the Brazilian market [4] - J&T has initiated cooperation with Mercado Libre this year, and the entry of more e-commerce platforms into Brazil presents additional growth opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to J&T, STO, ZTO, and YTO, while Yunda is rated as "Sell" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that pricing dynamics in China's parcel industry are stabilizing, with expectations of a 12% earnings CAGR for the sector from 2024 to 2027, driven by a 14% volume CAGR and a 3% annual drop in average selling price (ASP) [2][8]. - Smaller companies like J&T and STO are expected to outperform larger competitors in terms of market share and margin expansion due to their cheaper offerings and operational leverage [2][4]. Summary by Sections Pricing Dynamics - Delivery prices are believed to have bottomed out, with many franchisees reporting losses and expecting price hikes in the latter half of the year [3][11]. - The average ASP for Tongda companies fell approximately 7% year-over-year from January to May, but a stabilization is anticipated [8][11]. Earnings Forecasts - The report forecasts significant earnings growth for J&T and STO, with expected EPS CAGRs of 92% and 15% respectively from 2024 to 2027 [2][4]. - Adjustments to earnings estimates for 2025-2027 reflect a reduction of 0%-54% across Tongda companies, primarily due to pricing pressures [4]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - J&T and STO are projected to gain a total of 4 percentage points in market share from 2025 to 2027, while other Tongda companies are expected to lose 2 percentage points [4][8]. - The report indicates that lower-tier firms are likely to capture more market share as they improve unit economics and pricing strategies [8][94]. Valuation Insights - Current PE multiples for J&T and STO are considered undervalued at 9x and 12x for 2026E, respectively, compared to the expected industry average of 15x [2][5]. - The report highlights that Tongda firms are trading near historical lows, suggesting that a stabilizing pricing environment could lead to a re-rating of multiples [8][110]. Demand Drivers - The parcel volume in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2029, driven by consumption downtrading and government initiatives to stimulate domestic consumption [62][84]. - The report anticipates a 16.5% year-over-year growth in parcel volume for the current year, with strong growth momentum continuing [62][63].

Core Viewpoint - The Dazhu District of Chongqing has emerged as a leading example in the city's "Postal Transport" pilot program, showcasing effective integration of transportation and postal services to boost rural e-commerce and support the rural revitalization strategy [1] Group 1: E-commerce Empowerment - Dazhu District has rich agricultural products, but previously faced limited sales channels. The district has developed a rural e-commerce model through its e-commerce industrial park, which has been operational since 2017 [2] - As of 2024, the e-commerce industrial park has 147 resident enterprises and 279 registered companies, with 645 merchants conducting transactions on the Dazhu Cloud Smart Market. The total e-commerce transaction volume reached 6.279 billion yuan, with online retail sales of 3.212 billion yuan [2] - The district has utilized live streaming as a marketing tool, with 335,300 live broadcasts generating sales of 970 million yuan. This has significantly increased the visibility and sales of local products [4] Group 2: Logistics Solutions - Dazhu District has addressed logistics challenges by integrating transportation and postal resources, creating an efficient rural logistics network. The China Post Dazhu Branch has upgraded logistics facilities to enhance service delivery [5] - The district has implemented a "passenger and cargo postal" model, allowing passenger transport vehicles to also serve as delivery vehicles, thus improving logistics efficiency [5][7] Group 3: Integration and Development - The "Postal Transport + Rural E-commerce" model has significantly reduced delivery costs and improved logistics efficiency. Delivery costs for agricultural products have decreased from 12 yuan to 5 yuan within the district, and from 12 yuan to 8 yuan citywide, representing reductions of 58% and 33% respectively [8] - The development of e-commerce has created job opportunities in rural areas, with 619 individuals trained in e-commerce skills in 2024 alone [8] - Dazhu District has developed a comprehensive logistics management system and is promoting digital integration across transportation, commerce, and postal services, enhancing service efficiency for residents [8] Group 4: Economic Impact - The rural economy in Dazhu District has seen significant growth, with express delivery volume reaching approximately 26.727 million packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%. The online retail sales of agricultural products reached 620 million yuan [9] - The district's case study on rural e-commerce development has been recognized as a typical case for high-quality rural logistics development by the Ministry of Transport and the State Post Bureau [9]