Company Performance - Nextracker (NXT) stock increased by 1.65% to $58.51, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.8% [1] - Over the past month, NXT shares rose by 3.51%, lagging behind the Oils-Energy sector's 3.8% gain and the S&P 500's 5.12% increase [1] Upcoming Financial Results - Nextracker is expected to report earnings of $1.03 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10.75% [2] - Projected revenue for the upcoming release is $867.15 million, indicating a 20.45% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $3.87 per share and revenue of $3.33 billion for Nextracker, representing year-over-year changes of -8.29% and +12.56% respectively [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions are important as they reflect near-term business trends and indicate analysts' optimism regarding Nextracker's operations [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Nextracker currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate having increased by 0.31% over the last 30 days [5] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.89, which aligns with its industry's Forward P/E of 14.89, and a PEG ratio of 1.25, compared to the Solar industry's average PEG ratio of 0.52 [6] Industry Context - The Solar industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 147, placing it in the bottom 41% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that industries in the top 50% outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Enphase Energy was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 Thursday amid reports Congress may not cut federal tax incentives for residential rooftop solar installations. https://t.co/skqD8Jr0Q8 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Longi and "Neutral" ratings to Daqo and Xinjiang Daqo New Energy, while TZE and Tongwei are rated as "Sell" [28][17][20]. Core Insights - The profitability inflection for the solar industry is expected to be delayed due to slower demand growth, with normalized earnings projected to remain low. The industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical bottom in 2025E, with a demand growth slowdown in China expected to average +6% CAGR from 2025E to 2030E, compared to +55% from 2020 to 2024 [1][15]. - The report highlights that the solar industry's capacity utilization is expected to decline to 59% from 2025E to 2030E, which is 15 percentage points lower than previous estimates. This is attributed to existing capacity cuts and a deceleration in demand growth [10][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a healthy balance sheet and strong R&D capabilities for companies navigating the cyclical bottom of the industry [1][14]. Industry Capex Trend and Capacity Addition - Capex spending in the solar industry is projected to decline further, with a forecasted -55% year-over-year decrease in solar capex for 2025E, compared to a previous estimate of -34% [2]. - The report notes that 30GW of module capacity has been terminated, including 15GW by Longi, and 12GW of module capacity has been delayed from listed players [2]. Demand Dynamics - Solar demand growth is expected to slow significantly, with a projected 25% decrease in global demand from 2026E to 2030E compared to previous estimates. This is primarily due to new regulations that limit on-grid access for large-scale solar projects and remove guaranteed on-grid volumes and prices for renewable projects [7]. - The report anticipates a rebound in China’s demand by 14% year-over-year in 2027E after a decline of -17% in 2026E, driven by better economics for commercial and industrial battery energy storage systems [7]. Capacity and Utilization - The report estimates a 17% cut in end-2024 module capacity by the end of 2026E, influenced by market access constraints and cash burn [3][10]. - The capacity utilization in China is projected to be 53% in 2025E and 52% in 2026E, with a slight recovery to 59% by 2027E [8]. Company-Specific Insights - Longi is highlighted as a leading integrated module player with strong R&D capabilities, expected to benefit from upstream price contractions and improved ROE due to Back Contact technology [16][17]. - TZE is rated as "Sell" due to anticipated headwinds from a shrinking addressable market and a stretched balance sheet amid aggressive downstream investment plans [19][20].

Industry Overview - The U.S. solar industry is experiencing growth, with record installations and strong projections for 2025, despite challenges such as a temporary freeze on Inflation Reduction Act funding and high interest rates affecting residential demand [1][4][5] - Photovoltaic (PV) solar accounted for 69% of new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid in Q1 2025, indicating its dominance in the energy sector [2] Installation Trends - The industry installed approximately 10.8 gigawatts-direct current (GWdc) of new solar capacity in Q1 2025, marking the fourth-largest quarterly installation on record [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a 33% increase in solar generation this summer and an addition of 32.5 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity by the end of 2025 [3] Challenges - The freeze on Inflation Reduction Act funding in January 2025 caused delays and uncertainty for solar projects, although most of the freeze was revoked following a court order in April [4] - Residential solar installations fell by 13% year over year in Q1 2025 due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty, with projections for flat growth in the residential segment over the next five years [5] - China's dominance in solar module manufacturing, accounting for 80% of global capacity, is exerting downward pressure on U.S. module pricing, with costs in China being 20% lower than in the U.S. [6] Market Performance - The Zacks Solar industry currently ranks 181, placing it in the bottom 26% of over 245 Zacks industries, indicating bleak near-term prospects [8] - The solar industry has underperformed compared to the Oils-Energy sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite, with a collective loss of 46% over the past year [11] Valuation - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 4.69X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 16.87X and the sector's 4.87X [14] Notable Companies - **Tigo Energy Inc.**: Announced compatibility of its TS4 MLPE devices with Sonnen's hybrid inverter-battery systems, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating a 64% improvement in 2025 sales [16][17] - **Nextracker**: Acquired Bentek Corporation for $78 million, enhancing its solar tracker platform and U.S. supply chain [18][19] - **Array Technologies**: Declared an acquisition of APA Solar, strengthening its domestic manufacturing and offerings for utility and commercial solar projects [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - First Solar Inc. (FSLR) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 21.2% over the past six months, which is worse than the solar industry decline of 19.3% and the broader Zacks Oil-Energy sector growth of 5.3% [1][8] Performance Comparison - Other solar stocks, such as Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), have outperformed FSLR, with CSIQ losing 7.8% and SEDG gaining 15% in the same period [2] Reasons for Decline - FSLR's poor performance is attributed to weak first-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share down 11.4% year-over-year and a significant drop in operating income [4] - Manufacturing issues with Series 7 modules produced in 2023 and 2024 have led to substantial warranty charges, estimated to be between $56 million and $100 million in the near future [5] - The imposition of a 10% "baseline" tariff on most trading partners, including key manufacturing regions, has raised costs and negatively impacted operational results, prompting a reduction in 2025 guidance [6][8] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, FSLR is expanding its manufacturing capacity, with plans for a new facility expected to begin operations in the second half of 2025, aiming for 16% revenue growth in both 2025 and 2026 [9][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a revenue increase of 16.3% for 2025 and 16.8% for 2026, alongside a long-term earnings growth rate of 34.5% [12][10] Near-Term Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSLR's 2025 revenue is $4.89 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 16.28% [13] - Earnings per share estimates for 2025 have seen a downward revision, indicating reduced analyst confidence, with a projected EPS of 14.50 for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20.63% [14] Valuation Comparison - FSLR shares are trading at a premium with a forward Price/Sales (P/S F12M) ratio of 2.92, compared to the industry average of 1.16 [15] - In contrast, peers CSIQ and SEDG are trading at lower P/S ratios of 0.10 and 0.83, respectively [17]

Core Viewpoint - Sunrun Inc (NASDAQ:RUN) is experiencing significant stock declines, attributed to a downgrade by RBC Capital Markets and broader pressures in the alternative energy sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - RUN's stock fell 1.9% before the market opened, continuing a historic decline in the solar sector [1] - The stock plunged 40% in a single session, marking its worst drop on record, and reached its lowest level since 2018 [2] - Year-to-date, the stock has a deficit of 37.5% and has decreased by 54.5% over the past 12 months [2] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Sentiment - RBC Capital Markets downgraded RUN from "outperform" to "sector perform" and cut the price target from $12 to $5, indicating growing concerns in the alternative energy market [1] - Out of 23 analysts covering RUN, 10 still maintain a "buy" or better rating, suggesting a divide in sentiment [3] - The average 12-month price target for RUN is $11.13, which represents a 96.6% premium to the recent closing price, indicating potentially overly bullish sentiment that may be unwinding [3]

fix continues to be naive. Melissa. >> All right.Thank you, Pippa Stevens. Let's get more with Oppenheimer senior Research analyst Colin Rusch. Colin, great to have you with us.I first want to focus on the residential solar sector, which had already been under pressure because of consumer confidence, because of financing costs, so many other reasons. And now this. And I'm just wondering what what happens in this sector.It's been rerated obviously. Is it enough what happens to these stocks. >> Honestly this ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to First Solar Inc (FSLR) with a target price of US$160.16 as of June 9, 2025 [112]. Core Insights - AI data centers are a significant driver of electricity demand growth in the U.S., with six major technology companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, and Apple) accounting for nearly 20% of the growth in U.S. electricity demand, which grew by 3.2% year-over-year [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the potential loss of U.S. renewable tax credits will not materially impact the demand for renewables from large tech companies, as electricity costs average around 1.3% of their revenue [3][7]. - There is a shift towards hourly matching of renewable energy consumption by corporations, with some companies aiming for 24/7 carbon-free energy by 2030, which will increase the demand for diverse energy generation sources [4][90]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand Growth - U.S. electricity generation increased by 3.2% year-over-year, equating to an additional 144 TWh [2]. - The six technology companies mentioned are growing their electricity consumption at approximately 30% per annum [2]. Tax Credits and Cost Impact - The estimated loss of U.S. renewable tax credits would have less than a 25 basis points impact on operating margins across the technology sector [3][11]. - Electricity costs are projected to average around 1.3% of revenue for the companies analyzed, indicating minimal impact from potential tax credit losses [3][7]. Corporate Renewable Targets - Corporations primarily meet renewable targets through Power Purchase Agreements (C-PPAs), which allow them to match their total annual non-renewable electricity consumption with renewable energy [4][89]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on achieving hourly matching of renewable energy consumption, which will require a more diverse energy generation mix [4][90]. Technology Company Insights - Amazon's electricity consumption was reported at 30.9 TWh in 2021, with a commitment to match 100% of its electricity with renewable sources by 2023 [25][26]. - Microsoft reported a 180% increase in electricity consumption since 2020, with electricity costs making up only 1.8% of its revenue in 2024 [40]. - Google's electricity consumption grew by 17% year-over-year in 2023, with a goal of operating on 24/7 carbon-free energy by 2030 [46]. - Meta has maintained net zero emissions since 2020 by matching 100% of its electricity use with renewable energy [53]. - Oracle's electricity consumption increased by 55% year-over-year in 2023, with electricity costs representing a small fraction of its revenue [56]. - Apple's electricity usage is significantly lower than its peers, accounting for only an estimated 0.14% of its revenue in 2023, but it is pushing for renewable energy in its supply chain [57]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that if the growth rates of the six technology companies continue at approximately 25% per annum, their annual incremental electricity demand will exceed the entire U.S. utility-scale solar industry's generation growth by early 2028 [64][68]. - The corporate renewable demand is dominated by solar energy, which comprised 87% of the C-PPA market in 2025 [62].

Group 1: Company Performance - CSLM Acquisition Corp. (SPWR) has shown a year-to-date return of 3.9%, outperforming the average gain of 1.1% in the Oils-Energy group [4] - Over the past 90 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for SPWR's full-year earnings has increased by 129.6%, indicating improved analyst sentiment and a stronger earnings outlook [4] - In the Solar industry, which includes 16 companies, CSLM Acquisition Corp. ranks 179 in the Zacks Industry Rank and has outperformed the industry average gain of 2.5% this year [6] Group 2: Sector and Industry Context - The Oils-Energy group, which includes CSLM Acquisition Corp., is currently ranked 16 within the Zacks Sector Rank, which evaluates 16 different groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks [2] - Tigo Energy, Inc. (TYGO), another stock in the Oils-Energy sector, has achieved a year-to-date return of 26.9% and has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] - The Zacks Rank system focuses on earnings estimates and revisions to identify stocks with improving earnings outlooks, with a historical record of success in predicting market performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - First Solar Inc. has lowered its full-year 2025 earnings guidance due to challenges from recent U.S. import tariffs, now expecting earnings between $12.50 and $17.50 per share, down from $17.00 to $20.00 [1][9] Financial Projections - Revenues are now projected to be between $4.50 billion and $5.50 billion, a decrease from the previous range of $5.30 billion to $5.80 billion [2] - Expected module shipments have been lowered to 15.5-19.3 gigawatts (GW) [2] Tariff Impact - The implementation of double-digit reciprocal tariffs on India, Malaysia, and Vietnam is a significant economic headwind for First Solar, potentially reducing U.S.-bound demand and leading to production slowdowns [3] - Sustained pressure from tariffs could result in partial shutdowns, affecting the company's near-term operational performance [3] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, First Solar's long-term growth prospects remain strong due to its vertically integrated U.S. manufacturing, established footprint in the U.S. solar market, and a robust domestic supply chain [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Solar's long-term earnings growth rate is 34.5%, above the industry's average of 23.1% [5] Industry Context - Other solar stocks, such as Canadian Solar Inc. and JinkoSolar, are also facing pressure from increased tariffs on solar equipment imports from China and Southeast Asia, leading to reduced demand and sales [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - First Solar shares have declined by 43.9% over the past year, compared to a 45% decline in the industry [8] - The company's shares are trading at a forward Price/Earnings ratio of 9.26X, significantly lower than the industry's average of 15.66X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Solar's near-term earnings has decreased over the past 60 days [11]