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金丹科技“连环跳坑记”
市值风云· 2025-07-28 10:02
Core Viewpoint - JinDan Technology (300829.SZ) is a leading player in the domestic lactic acid industry, having established a comprehensive "corn-lactic acid-lactide-polylactic acid" industrial chain, particularly focusing on biodegradable materials like polylactic acid, which is seen as a potential blue ocean market [3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - JinDan Technology has an annual production capacity of 183,000 tons for lactic acid and its derivatives, making it the leader in the domestic lactic acid sector [6]. - The company is currently expanding its lactic acid production capacity by an additional 50,000 tons, with an investment of 313 million, expected to be 75% completed by the end of 2024 [7]. - JinDan is located in a major corn-producing area in China and is extending its operations into upstream corn cultivation, planning to contract over 17,000 acres for high-starch corn cultivation in 2024 [8]. Group 2: Downstream Expansion - The company is extending its operations downstream into lactide, polylactic acid, and modified materials, which is a key strategic direction for JinDan [9]. - In 2024, JinDan has projects under construction that include a 10,000-ton lactide and a 75,000-ton polylactic acid biodegradable materials project [10]. - Additionally, JinDan has a project for producing 60,000 tons of biodegradable polyester and its products, with a budget of 466 million, expected to be completed by the end of 2024 [11]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The lactic acid industry is currently characterized as a red ocean, with significant competition and pressure on prices, leading to a decline in revenue and profitability for JinDan [12][14]. - In 2023, the global lactic acid industry had a total capacity of 1.193 million tons, but the market is facing oversupply, resulting in a drop in JinDan's gross margin to 18.9%, the lowest on record [14]. - JinDan's net profit for 2023 was 85 million, a year-on-year decline of 35.54%, with projections for 2024 indicating a further drop to 37 million [15]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The polylactic acid industry is experiencing rapid capacity expansion, with China's production capacity expected to reach 300,000 tons in 2024 and over 1 million tons by 2025, while consumption is only projected at 120,000 tons [19]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many companies planning significant capacity expansions, leading to concerns about future oversupply [19][20]. - JinDan's projects have faced delays, with the 75,000-ton polylactic acid project now expected to be completed in June 2026, reflecting broader industry challenges [23].