Core Viewpoint - The current state of the "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy) is characterized by a significant wave of store closures, particularly among "谷店" (Guzi stores), while the market continues to see new openings, leading to a paradoxical situation of both decline and expansion in the industry [1][3][8]. Group 1: Store Closures - Over the past six months, at least 155 Guzi stores have closed or planned to close, with 755 new stores opening during the same period, indicating a turbulent market environment [3][8]. - The closures are primarily attributed to low profits, high rents, and increased competition, particularly in first-tier and new first-tier cities, which account for 81% of the closures [7][10]. - The majority of the closed stores are personal Guzi stores, making up 55% of the total closures, while chain brands account for 45% [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the closures, the number of new store openings surged in the first half of 2025, with May alone seeing a record high of 241 new openings [8][10]. - The rapid expansion of stores has led to increased competition and consumer fatigue, resulting in inventory issues and price reductions among many brands [10][12]. - The decline in popularity of key IPs (Intellectual Properties) that support the Guzi economy has contributed to the current challenges, with significant drops in search interest for major IPs compared to the previous year [12][14]. Group 3: IP Dependency - The Guzi economy heavily relies on the popularity of specific IPs, and the current downturn is linked to a noticeable decline in the heat of these IPs, which were previously driving sales [11][22]. - The industry faces a systemic risk due to over-reliance on a few blockbuster IPs, leading to market volatility and a lack of sustainable growth [22]. - There is a growing need for a diverse ecosystem of IPs with long-term commercial value to stabilize the market and reduce dependency on singular hits [22].

Core Insights - The 二次元 retail industry is experiencing a significant downturn following a period of rapid growth, leading to widespread inventory issues and financial losses across the sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Inventory Pressure - The 二次元 retail sector is facing severe inventory accumulation, with some chain stores holding inventory worth tens of millions to over a billion yuan, leading to substantial financial losses [2][8][9] - Many retailers are resorting to drastic measures such as deep discounts and promotions to clear excess stock, with reports of inventory being sold at prices as low as one-third of their original value [3][12][13] - The overall sales volume for many stores has dropped by at least 30%, prompting some owners to consider selling their businesses to mitigate losses [9][12][19] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in consumer interest is attributed to the oversaturation of the market with similar products, particularly from popular IPs, which has led to a rapid decrease in demand [3][16][19] - The 二次元 market has seen a chaotic expansion, with many new entrants lacking the necessary expertise in long-term IP management, resulting in a bubble-like environment [3][17][21] - The lack of effective communication and localized operations from Japanese copyright holders has contributed to a low barrier for entry and an inflated distribution network [4][17] Group 3: Future Development - The industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring phase, with many new entrants likely to exit the market due to a lack of understanding of IP management [21][22] - Companies are beginning to shift towards a more sustainable and diversified business model, focusing on long-term growth rather than short-term profits [6][24][30] - The rise of domestic IPs and the increasing importance of differentiated product offerings are becoming critical for survival in the evolving market landscape [24][26][30]