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英国经济连续第二个月萎缩,5月GDP意外下滑0.1%,央行降息压力陡增
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-11 08:40
Economic Performance - The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive month of decline, indicating a loss of earlier strong growth momentum [1] - This contraction follows a 0.3% decline in April, suggesting a significant slowdown in the second quarter compared to a 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1][8] - If June output falls by 0.4% or more, the UK economy will experience an overall contraction in the second quarter [1] Sector Performance - The contraction in May was primarily driven by significant declines in the production and construction sectors, which were only partially offset by growth in the services sector [8] - The downturn in production was concentrated in oil and gas extraction, automotive manufacturing, and the volatile pharmaceutical industry [8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.2% against the US dollar, reaching $1.35 [4] - Investors slightly increased bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in August, with expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year [9] Government Response - Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the disappointing GDP data and expressed determination to stimulate economic growth [7] - The Labour government is relying on stronger growth to fund its spending plans, but fiscal conditions are tightening due to changes in welfare payments and winter fuel subsidies [7] Economic Outlook - Economists predict that even if June GDP stabilizes, overall growth for the second quarter will slow to just 0.1% [8] - Concerns about the health of the UK economy have increased, with the Bank of England previously warning of weak potential growth [10]