【11月19日，ICAEW主管称英国预算案或成央行降息最后障碍】11月19日，ICAEW主管苏伦·蒂鲁透 露，英国政府的预算案是英国央行降息前的最后一道障碍。蒂鲁表示，预算案对通胀而言是双刃剑，提 高税收能抑制需求起到通缩作用，若企业成本上升则可能推高物价带来"二次风"。他指出，12月降息条 件正逐步形成，但英国央行决策者会先评估预算案政策影响，再批准进一步宽松。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

高盛同时预测，印尼央行或将于2025年12月启动降息，幅度为25个基点，并可能在2026年第一季度再次 下调25个基点。但该机构未披露上述预测所依据的具体经济数据或模型参数，相关细节暂未披露。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月17日电据《华尔街日报》最新调查，市场普遍预期印度尼西亚央行将在本周三的货币 政策会议上维持七天逆回购利率不变。在接受调查的八位经济学家中，七位预计该利率将保持在 4.75%；仅有一位预测央行可能下调25个基点至4.50%。 高盛认为，印尼央行本次会议将选择按兵不动。报告指出，决策层需进一步评估经济增长态势、通胀走 势、此前利率调整的政策效果以及外汇市场的稳定性，方能决定后续行动方向。 ...

Core Points - The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 5% for the three months ending in September, the highest level since early 2021, surpassing economists' expectations of 4.9% [1] - The number of employees decreased by 32,000 in October, with September's data also revised down by the same amount [1] - The redundancy rate increased to 4.5 per 1,000 employees, marking the highest level since January 2024 and the second highest since the pandemic began [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed from 4.4% to 4.2%, the lowest since early 2021, aligning with economists' median expectations [5] - Following the data release, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England, with market pricing indicating an over 80% probability of action in December [5] - The report indicates a weakening labor market, with the Bank of England's Governor suggesting that if upcoming data confirms easing inflationary pressures, he may support a rate cut in December [5][6] Employment Market Insights - The employment report is the first in a series of data that will influence the Bank of England's decision on interest rates in December [6] - The upcoming GDP data and the budget announcement on November 26 are critical for the interest rate decision, with expectations of tax increases potentially impacting economic growth [6] - The rise in unemployment is attributed to the increase in national insurance contributions by £26 billion, which has drawn criticism from opposition parties and business groups [5][6] - The number of job vacancies increased by 2,000 compared to the previous quarter, but remains below pre-pandemic levels [11] - The unemployment-to-vacancy ratio reached its highest level since 2015, indicating a significant level of labor market slack [11] Wage Growth Dynamics - Real wage growth adjusted for inflation was only 0.8%, the weakest since August 2023, despite some sectors experiencing strong wage increases [11][14] - Public sector wages rose by 6.6%, the fastest growth since the end of 2023, influenced by earlier-than-expected pay increases [11] - Wages in wholesale, retail, and hospitality sectors also saw a robust increase of 5.7%, reflecting the impact of government tax increases on employment and minimum wage [14] - Nearly half of businesses reported reducing hiring due to the government's employment tax increase, while only 17% opted to lower wages [14]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - Barclays suggests that traders are underestimating the likelihood of an unexpected interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week, predicting a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% [1] - According to Capital Economics, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline further in the coming months, potentially leading to another rate cut by the European Central Bank [2] - DBS Bank analysts indicate that the Bank of Japan may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points in December, depending on wage negotiations and the Federal Reserve's actions [3] - UOB economists believe that the Bank of Thailand may need to cut rates more than expected to combat deflation risks, with predictions of 25 basis point cuts in December and Q1 of next year [5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Eurozone inflation decreased from 2.2% in September to 2.1% in October, attributed to falling energy and food prices, while core inflation remained at 2.4% [2] - The European Central Bank's survey indicates that inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2% target in the coming years, with economic growth projected to gradually recover [2] - Thailand's consumer prices have fallen for six consecutive months, raising concerns about deflation driven by weak bank credit and high private sector leverage [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Sentiment - Hedge funds are betting that the Japanese yen will fall to 160 against the US dollar by year-end, driven by the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan [4] - A report from Bank of America highlights a record outflow of $7.5 billion from gold funds in a single week, following a previous week of significant inflows [6]

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous meetings of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to have significant implications for global markets, particularly in terms of monetary policy and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Meetings - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its two-day meeting, which concludes at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday [1]. - The Bank of Canada is also expected to announce a rate decision shortly before the Fed, with similar expectations for a rate cut [3]. - The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will hold meetings concurrently, with decisions expected on Thursday [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The coordinated actions of these central banks could lead to a more accommodative global funding environment, especially with the Fed's involvement, which influences the value of the US dollar [2]. - A weaker dollar could reduce the price competitiveness of US goods overseas, as 54% of global trade invoices are denominated in dollars [2]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - Despite the potential for coordinated rate cuts, there is no clear indication of synchronized economic shifts among the countries involved [2]. - The Fed is expected to cut rates to support a weakening US job market, while the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its current policy stance due to persistent inflation in the services sector [2][4]. - The Bank of Canada faces a challenging decision regarding rate cuts due to strong employment data and stubborn inflation [3]. Group 4: Diverging Priorities - Different central banks are prioritizing various economic issues, with some focusing on economic support and others on inflation control [4]. - The potential for further rate cuts by the Fed, combined with strong corporate earnings, may support risk assets in the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - This week marks the last week of October, featuring a "super week" of central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision being the focal point. Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank, will also announce their rate decisions. A series of important economic data will be released, including GDP figures from the Eurozone and Germany, as well as the U.S. GDP and core PCE price index. The earnings reports from major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon will also be significant events that could impact global financial markets [1]. Economic Data and Events Summary - **Monday**: Focus on Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, which may show a second consecutive month of slowdown, indicating further challenges for the German economy. The U.S. will release September durable goods orders data, with investors watching for a continuation of the previous mild growth trend. The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for October is expected to remain negative, reflecting ongoing low business activity in the region [3]. - **Tuesday**: Attention will be on the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with expectations that it may further decline to around 90, reflecting consumer concerns about the economic outlook. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will also be monitored for signs of continued pressure on U.S. manufacturing [4]. - **Wednesday**: The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, with a high probability (over 86%) of a 25 basis point cut, bringing the benchmark policy rate down to 2.25%. This follows unexpected inflation rise (September CPI at 2.4%) and warnings from the central bank governor about economic risks [6]. - **Thursday**: The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut amid a lack of significant economic signals due to the recent government shutdown. The decision is anticipated to create notable market volatility. The Bank of Japan will also announce its rate decision, with new uncertainties introduced by the recent election of Prime Minister Suga. The Eurozone and Germany's Q3 GDP data will be closely watched, with the Eurozone needing to maintain over 1% annual growth to support optimistic economic outlooks [7][9]. - **Friday**: The Eurozone will release CPI data, expected to remain at 2.2%, above the ECB's target. The U.S. core PCE price index for September will also be released, with market attention on whether it remains around 3%. Any unexpected data could lead to market fluctuations [10][11].

Group 1 - Canada's inflation rate in September rose to 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.3%, driven by narrowing declines in gasoline prices and rising food prices [1] - The core inflation indicator also increased, with September's core CPI rising to 2.8% year-on-year from 2.6% previously, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain a cautious stance ahead of its upcoming interest rate meeting, with the probability of a rate cut in October dropping to 74% from 86% prior to the inflation data release [1] Group 2 - Ongoing trade tensions between the US and Canada prompted the Bank of Canada to lower its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% in September, marking the first rate cut in six months [2] - Analysts suggest that the recent inflation data may have limited impact on the Bank of Canada's decision-making, as the central bank is focused on economic growth and employment risks stemming from tariff policies [2] - Key indicators highlight the weakness in the Canadian economy, including negative sales expectations and high levels of layoff plans, while wage growth expectations have halved from a peak of 5.8% in May 2022 to 3%, the lowest in four years [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply is expected to be ample, demand to decline, and prices to have limited upside potential. However, if there is an interest - rate cut expectation, prices may rebound slightly. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, it is expected to stop falling and stabilize. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, real - estate may continue to drag down glass demand. It is recommended to buy glass futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash主力合约收盘价is 1219 yuan/ton (up 10), glass主力合约收盘价is 1091 yuan/ton (down 4), and the price difference between soda ash and glass is 128 yuan/ton (up 14) [2]. - Soda ash主力合约持仓量is 1369450 lots (down 36196), glass主力合约持仓量is 1624204 lots (up 65583) [2]. - Soda ash前20名净持仓is - 267165 (up 2374), glass前20名净持仓is - 196704 (up 40447) [2]. - Soda ash交易所仓单is 10773 tons (up 1490), glass交易所仓单is 455 tons (unchanged) [2]. - Soda ash基差is - 73 yuan/ton (down 1), glass基差is - 19 yuan/ton (down 12) [2]. - The price difference between January and May glass contracts is - 140 (down 4), and that of soda ash contracts is - 85 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1162 yuan/ton (up 2), Central China heavy soda ash price is 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - East China light soda ash price is 1250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China light soda ash price is 1145 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Shahe glass price is 1112 yuan/ton (down 4), Central China glass price is 1180 yuan/ton (down 20) [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash装置开工率is 84.93% (down 3.48), float glass企业开工率is 76.35% (up 0.34) [2]. - Glass在产产能is 16.12 million tons/year (up 0.05), glass在产生产线条数is 226 (up 1) [2]. - Soda ash企业库存is 171.07 million tons (up 1.02), glass企业库存is 6427.6 million heavy boxes (up 145.2) [2]. Downstream Situation - Real - estate新开工面积累计值is 39801.01 million square meters (up 4595.01), real - estate竣工面积累计值is 27693.54 million square meters (up 2659.54) [2]. Industry News - Hunan Lengshuijiang Jinfuyuan's soda ash plant is shut down, with a light soda ash quote of 1400 yuan/ton [2]. - Jiangsu Kunshan Jingang's soda ash plant is operating normally, with a light soda ash ex - factory quote of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [2]. - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant has restarted and is in the production - increasing stage, with a light soda ash quote of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant is operating stably with stable prices [2]. - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year soda ash plant is operating normally [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year soda ash plant is operating at a reduced capacity of about 70% [2]. - Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 million tons/year soda ash plant has resumed production [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics in the context of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of US-China Trade Relations**: The trade tensions between the US and China have a limited negative impact on the bond market, with the best-case scenario being the maintenance of the current status or a formal agreement [1][2]. 2. **Stock Market Influence**: A significant decline in stock market trading volume and the Hang Seng Technology Index indicates a decrease in risk appetite, leading institutional funds to potentially flow back into the bond market [1][3]. 3. **Banking Sector's Role**: Banks have played a crucial role in stabilizing the bond market by increasing their investments in government bonds, with the ten-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.75% [1][4][5]. 4. **Economic Contribution**: In the first three quarters, the banking system increased bond investments by 11.4 trillion RMB, accounting for over 80% of new loan growth, significantly contributing to the economy [1][6]. 5. **Future Market Expectations**: The stock market is expected to decline slowly, with a further decrease in risk appetite, leading to a potential shift towards safer bond assets [1][7]. 6. **Fourth Quarter Bond Market Outlook**: A positive outlook for the 30-year government bond is anticipated, with expectations of a yield increase of over 20 basis points due to reduced primary issuance and increased demand from insurance companies [1][9][10]. 7. **Yield Projections**: The central yield for the 30-year government bond is projected at 2%, with an expected range of 1.7% to 2.3% over the next year [1][11]. 8. **Investment Strategies in Low-Rate Environment**: In a low-interest-rate environment, it is suggested to focus on long-duration bonds to capture capital gains, as short-term bonds offer limited opportunities [1][12]. 9. **Economic Growth Challenges**: The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is expected to be challenging, with estimates around 4.7%-4.8%, influenced by weak consumption and investment [1][14]. 10. **Real Estate Market Risks**: Significant risks in the real estate market could negatively impact the banking sector, with property prices having dropped substantially in many areas [1][15]. 11. **Potential for Interest Rate Cuts**: The likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China is high, with expectations of a 10 to 20 basis point reduction due to easing domestic economic pressures [1][16][17]. 12. **Investment Opportunities**: The bond market is viewed as having potential investment opportunities, particularly in the 30-year government bonds and long-term capital bonds from state-owned enterprises [1][18]. 13. **Sales Fee Regulations**: New sales fee regulations are expected to have a limited impact on the bond market, as the market has already priced in these changes [1][19]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the bond market closely in the fourth quarter, as it presents a critical opportunity for investors to capitalize on potential market movements [1][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) unexpectedly lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, continuing a monetary easing cycle aimed at stimulating economic activity [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The rate cut is part of a broader trend in the region, with central banks in countries like New Zealand and Indonesia also reducing rates to support economic growth [1]. - A survey of 26 economists revealed that only 7 predicted the rate cut, indicating a general expectation that the BSP would maintain the key rate [1]. Group 2: Regional Central Bank Trends - The BSP's decision aligns with actions taken by other central banks in the region, while the U.S. Federal Reserve appears poised to lower rates further in 2025 [1]. - In contrast, Thailand's central bank unexpectedly chose to pause its rate cuts this week, highlighting differing monetary policy approaches within the region [1].