周四（8月21日）亚盘早盘，美元兑加元最新价报1.3881，涨幅0.08%，开盘价为1.3868。加拿大7月年 度通胀率从1.9%降至1.7%，主要得益于汽油价格同比下降16.1%，但核心通胀指标依然坚挺。 路透社调查的分析师此前预期年度通胀率为1.8%，而加拿大统计局数据显示月度CPI上涨了0.3%。剔除 汽油价格后，加拿大7月CPI上涨2.5%。食品价格和住房成本是通胀的主要驱动因素，其中食品价格上 涨3.3%，而住房成本作为CPI的最大组成部分，上涨了3%，创下去年2月以来的首次上涨。加拿大央行 密切关注的核心通胀指标保持坚挺，CPI-median从3%升至3.1%，而CPI-trim则稳定在3%。尽管年度通 胀率低于加拿大央行1%至3%目标区间的中间点，但CPI篮子中价格涨幅超过3%的部分占比依然高达 37.3%。货币市场数据显示，加拿大央行在9月17日降息的概率为32%。 美元兑加元从1.38区间上方的上行势头，轻松突破了1.38中低位的阻力，且涨幅得到日内和日线趋势强 度震荡指标的坚实支撑。这些信号表明，美元兑加元的上行走势可能会延续。 ...

英镑兑美元预计回调空间有限，理想情况下回调将受限于1.3500区间——这将构成健康回调，之后多头 有望重新积聚动能，最终突破1.3588-1.3618阻力。若该区间被有效突破，将打开指向1.3788的空间，这 一水平是2025年高点，也是2021年10月以来的最高位。 英国国家统计局上周四表示，英国6月三个月GDP月率录得0.3%，超出预期。数据表明，尽管企业和消 费者受到多重因素冲击，经济在这段本就预计艰难的时期仍保持了韧性——这些因素包括里夫斯推出的 260亿英镑（352亿美元）工资税加征政策、能源等受监管价格突破通胀水平的上涨、购房税上调，以及 美国总统特朗普实施的关税政策。此外，数据显示，自去年10月里夫斯推出增税预算以来，英国减少的 就业岗位数量少于最初预期，这似乎让英国央行在是否继续将利率从当前4%的水平下调的问题上更加 举棋不定。交易员们不再完全认为今年会进一步降息，预计明年借贷成本将稳定在3.5%。 周一（8月18日）亚盘早盘，英镑兑美元暂报1.3551，跌幅0.00%，昨日收盘报1.3551。 数据显示，英国 经济在第二季度的表现好于预期，这给财政大臣里夫斯带来了一些慰藉，但也提高了英国央行 ...

Core Insights - The Central Bank of Chile plans to implement interest rate cuts in late 2025 and early 2026, with the first expected cut possibly occurring in September 2025 instead of October [1] Group 1 - The last interest rate cut occurred at the end of July 2025, with the current monetary policy rate standing at 4.75% [1] - The Vice President of the Central Bank, Jones, shared these insights during an interview with CNN Chile [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Kenya has reduced the key interest rate from 9.75% to 9.50%, marking a cumulative decrease of 350 basis points since August 2024 [1] Group 1 - The recent interest rate cut aims to stimulate economic growth and manage inflation [1] - The cumulative reduction of 350 basis points indicates a significant shift in monetary policy over the past year [1] - The current interest rate of 9.50% reflects the Central Bank's ongoing efforts to support the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone bond yields fell across the board as the market increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. employment growth showed signs of slowing down, with previous values significantly revised down, indicating a notable cooling in the labor market [1] - This development has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of an ECB rate cut by the end of the year has risen to 60%, up from 50% prior to the data release [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut by March 2026 has increased to 80%, compared to the previous 65% [1] Group 3: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.68% [1] - The yield on Germany's 2-year bonds fell by 4 basis points to 1.91%, having previously reached a high of 1.967% since early April [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Ghana has reduced its interest rate by 300 basis points to 25%, down from the previous rate of 28% [1] Group 1 - The interest rate cut is aimed at stimulating economic growth and addressing inflation concerns [1] - This significant reduction reflects the central bank's response to changing economic conditions [1] - The new rate of 25% is expected to impact borrowing costs and consumer spending positively [1]

Core Insights - The central bank of the Philippines is expected to implement two more interest rate cuts this year, with the timing dependent on economic data [1] Summary by Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Philippine central bank governor indicated the possibility of two additional interest rate cuts in 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey indicates that among 20 analysts, 16 expect the Colombian central bank to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 9% in July, while 1 analyst anticipates a 50 basis point cut, and 3 analysts predict the rate will remain at 9.25% [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rate Expectations** - 16 out of 20 analysts forecast a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate to 9% [1] - 1 analyst predicts a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [1] - 3 analysts believe the rate will stay unchanged at 9.25% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's government bond yields have halted their decline following an unexpected interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Turkey [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Turkey implemented a larger-than-expected interest rate cut, influencing market dynamics [1] - The decision by the Central Bank is seen as a significant factor in stabilizing bond yields after a period of decline [1] - Market reactions indicate a shift in investor sentiment towards Turkish government bonds post-rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America Global Research anticipates that the Bank of England will lower interest rates in February 2026, with the terminal rate expected to drop to 3.5% [1] Group 1 - The expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England is projected to occur in February 2026 [1] - The terminal interest rate is forecasted to decrease to 3.5% [1]