Group 1 - The "Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index" for Q3 2025 has dropped 3.3 points to 40.5, marking the lowest level since Q2 2022, indicating a decline in local SMEs' confidence in business revenue for the season [1] - All five sub-indices have decreased, with the most significant drops in business conditions and profit performance [1] - The global economy sub-index has fallen for three consecutive quarters, with a cumulative decline of 15.6 since Q4 2024, reflecting the impact of US monetary policy shifts, high tariff policies, and ineffective economic stimulus measures on consumer spending and global trade [1] Group 2 - Despite global economic uncertainties, Hong Kong SMEs demonstrate resilience, with several key industries maintaining stable growth, particularly construction and accommodation and food services, benefiting from large infrastructure projects and international events [2] - Over 90% of surveyed SMEs plan to maintain or increase investments this season, with 5% intending to boost investment, focusing on digital transformation projects such as IT systems, online marketing, e-commerce, and employee training [2] - The Hong Kong government has successfully attracted tourists through international events, which has positively impacted economic development, although the index indicates a waning effect from pre-export boosts and rising interest rates may expose SMEs to new economic slowdowns [2]

Economic Overview - The overall local GDP in Hong Kong increased by 3.1% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year, up from a 2.5% increase in Q4 2024 [1] Service Sector Analysis - The total value added by all service activities rose by 2.6% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.7% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The value added by import and export trade, wholesale and retail industries increased by 4.2% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in Q4 2024 [1] - The accommodation and food services sector saw a decrease of 1.8% in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 2.6% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The transportation, warehousing, postal, and courier services sector's value added rose by 2.9% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, down from a 6.8% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The information and communications sector's value added increased by 1.3% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, slightly down from a 1.5% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The financial and insurance sector's value added rose by 4.4% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.9% increase in Q4 2024 [1] Other Industries - The real estate, professional, and business services sector recorded a 0.3% decline in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 1.7% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The public administration, social, and personal services sector's value added increased by 1.7% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, down from a 3.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The local manufacturing sector's value added rose by 0.7% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The electricity, gas, water supply, and waste management sector experienced a 1.4% decline in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 3.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] Construction Industry - The construction sector's value added declined by 1.9% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 4.7% decrease in Q4 2024 [3]

Core Insights - The overall business confidence among Hong Kong SMEs remains cautious despite a slight increase in the Composite Business Index to 43.8, reflecting the uncertain global economic outlook [1] - Three out of five sub-indices showed growth, specifically in "Business Conditions," "Profit Performance," and "Investment Intentions," while "Global Economy" and "Recruitment Intentions" declined [1] - The "Global Economy" sub-index fell to 24.9, nearing levels seen in Q2 2022, indicating increased challenges for Hong Kong SMEs due to global trade uncertainties [1] Investment Trends - Over 94% of surveyed Hong Kong SMEs plan to maintain or increase investments, with a focus on online marketing, e-commerce training, IT systems, R&D projects, and overall employee training [2] - The "Financial and Insurance" sector experienced the highest increase in the business index, while "Information and Communication," "Real Estate," and "Accommodation and Food Services" saw significant declines [2] Cost Expectations - The anticipated rise in material costs has slowed, with 54% of SMEs expecting increases, down three percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - The percentage of SMEs planning to raise employee salaries decreased by seven percentage points to 20%, and only 17% intend to increase product or service prices, down three percentage points [2] Future Business Strategies - Approximately 78% of SMEs have plans to adapt to current risks, primarily by increasing local customer bases and enhancing operational processes with AI/digital applications [4] - Nearly 29% of SMEs are considering expanding into other markets within the next three years, with a notable interest in mainland China and ASEAN regions [4][5] Support Initiatives - The Hong Kong Productivity Council has established "The Cradle Outbound Service Center" to provide comprehensive support for SMEs looking to expand overseas, addressing challenges in product, technology, and management exports [5]